Budget 2025 & Election

Raichų

See in the paper this morning (yet again) speculation that there’s definitely a general election being called after Budget 2025.

Would make sense in a way, as was said in the piece I read, November could work out because Sinn Fein are still reeling from the disaster election in the summer, a “giveaway” budget will have a fierce impact on the psychology of people when they’re deciding who to vote etc.

Consequently if it’s left until Feb/March, just after Christmas we’re all broke, the days are short and dark sooner, into the throws of winter, we’ll all be in a bad form for voting and may not be as kind as the current government would like.

the government has been very vocal on going the full term but frankly the more they say it the more I think it’s bollocks.

L1011

The #1 reason for going early is to avoid, as much as possible, the raised trolley count, norovirus outbreaks and other general collapse-of-the-system things that happen in A&E over the winter.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122628668#Comment_122628668

Yeah but what about the whitehouse visit in March…

I think he'll hold off until then

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122628668#Comment_122628668

yeah 100% they’re cute enough to hold the election a few weeks after filling out pockets with “giveaway” budget (that makes me laugh too but anyway!) and before the hospitals collapse under themselves.

I also feel that the messaging from Harris in particular is open to calling it early. He said recently something like he thinks March is grand and great, but hey maybe the other coalition leaders think differently…

cmon.

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122628697#Comment_122628697

Well MM is calling for February so either way that is probably an irrelevance?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122628697#Comment_122628697

Can't. Dáil has to be dissolved 19th Feb at the latest; absolute latest election date - longest campaign ever - would be the 22nd.

Going to the US for ~3 days at the height of the campaign, to potentially meet Trump, would be disasterous.

Wanderer78

handy one for ffg, so they can keep the recovery going!

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122628712#Comment_122628712

Get what you're saying, but bare in mind last time around, Mr Varadkar was Taoiseach until June 2020 because it (disgracefully) took 4 months for the elected members to form a Government.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629034#Comment_122629034

He'd have to go by early March (dissolve early Feb) and hope it took that long to form a new Government in that case; because going during the campaign would not be acceptable in any circumstances.

So its not going to be a realistic concern.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629039#Comment_122629039

I sure hope you're correct, I do not think you will be though :( (that's the pessimist in me…)

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629034#Comment_122629034

Id say somehow covid played a major part in that (or at least could be blamed) whereas this time around there would be no such luck.

I strongly suspect it will be another circle of the wagons and we’ll pretty much end up with the same crowd we have at present.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629051#Comment_122629051

I think it was more that there were now 3 parties in contention as opposed to the usual two, FF and FG had to work together for the first time and it took a very long time to sort out.

Regardless, 4 months is a disgrace. It should be noted that there is no time limit (as far as I am aware) for a government to be formed and that the Dail can technically be hung indefinitely (unless the president steps in).

I'm gonna guess it will be the same 3 parties again, I think SF will get a bit more than last time and it will require 4 parties to get a majority against them FF,FG,[LAB|SD],GREEN. Maybe a few indos thrown in there too.

I think the last time we had that it was a Disaster… Rainbow Coalition. (I would have been a teen at the time)

Podge_irl

A trip to the States is not going to factor into the decision at all. Harris is more serious than those suggesting that crazy notion.

zell12

What about the 4(?) by-elections that must be held within ~6 months of the new MEPs leaving Dáil?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629093#Comment_122629093

Writ has to be moved within 6 months; and they didn't officially leave until mid July. They can avoid having them entirely because they can delay them til after the end of the Dáil.

The fifth seat went even later.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629104#Comment_122629104

But would that not mean the GE could not be pushed out to March? The election has to be within a month of dissolution of Dail yes? So if you're going to forestall the by-elections you'd have to have the GE by mid-February?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629207#Comment_122629207

Once you call a GE, any pending BEs are cancelled. So they can issue the writ for the BEs and just ignore it for the remaining weeks.

reactadabtc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122628719#Comment_122628719

Ireland is flying at the moment. Why wouldn't you want the government back in? Sure you can moan about housing, but yearly units are increasing rapidly. Whoever is the next housing minister will have a great great base, especially with Q1 this year having the record number of starts!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629249#Comment_122629249

exactly! some simply dont realise, ireland actually isnt doing too good for a large proportion of society, younger generations are screwed, and they know it, while most older generations are sitting pretty, and most of the metrics we use to reflect the so called 'wellness' of our economy only truly reflect the lives of these older generations, such as the valuation of assets, and in particular property and land.

basically, these younger folks are screwed, so long term that means we re all screwed, including some of those older generations, as its very unlikely their most critical of needs wont be met as they age, such as their health care and welfare needs, pension fund needs etc etc….

so rock and roll onto another ffg, and another ffg, and another ffg…..

…as im sure, it ll all be grand!

twinytwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629249#Comment_122629249

Lets not kid ourselves - Ireland isn't flying. Just like during the boom, excessive money is papering over the cracks all while praying the music doesn't stop.

Housing , Health , Justice/Prisons, Childcare, Defence Forces, Guards, Education, Immigration etc all dysfunctional or completely broken . Zero accountability or responsibility and not a clue from any of them how to start to fix any of it, and I include the "opposition" in that.

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629280#Comment_122629280

Many of those younger folk to inherit, therefore they vote to maintain status quo to protect asset value 🙂

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629293#Comment_122629293

…and what do they do in the mean time, while waiting for mammy and daddy to pop their clogs! do they stay in the family home until their 50's and 60's with their own families until then!

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629310#Comment_122629310

There are ALOT of kids getting "Early Inheritance" or some degree of "Help" from their parents.

The Bank of Mam & Dad is a thing, and I think it's something that needs to be addressed.

I know a good few people that have gotten what is basically interest free loans from their parents/parents companies.

I know others that have gotten free houses from Mam/Dads company through shady dealings.

It's unfair that those that really try, and work very hard to get something for themselves are being blocked by those who've never done a tap or aren't that good at their job (and what not).

Hence the reason a lot of kids are leaving once they get the degree. There was a recruitment campaign on the radio there a few weeks ago from some Australian Police force looking for Garda that have just completed their training… keep the recovery going though…

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629293#Comment_122629293

Not If they go after inheritance tax.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629626#Comment_122629626

…and again, its critical to explain what the term 'keep the recovery going' actually means, it actually means 'keep the recovery (of the value of assets, in particular related to property and land) going' and ta hell with the consequences!

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629626#Comment_122629626

ah come on! Access to affordable housing (or a lack thereof) is hardly to be blamed on well off parents gifting their kids houses/inheritance early. Usually this is done BECAUSE these people are otherwise stuck living at home.

dasa29

I posted the following over in the Politics and as people are forgetting that the following is needed before an Election.

"As far as I know the Budget will be a week early on 1st of October rather then the 8th October. But I think given two Bills relating to the budget have to be passed before calling an Election, for me the earliest it could be is between 8th Nov and 23rd Nov. Also just looked at the dates and if the Election is called on say 15th Oct, 18 days is 2nd Nov and 25 days is 8th Nov."

Now from what I see the bills are The Finance Bill, and The Social Welfare and Pensions Bill so these need to be passed by the Dáil Éireann, Seanad Éireann and signed by the President before calling an Election.

The Budget in Brief Your guide to Budget 2024 from Assets.gov.ie PDF

"The Social Welfare and Pensions Bill provides for changes in the social welfare code announced in the Budget, and is usually enacted soon after Budget Day. The Finance Bill, which puts the tax measures announced in the Budget into law, must be enacted within four months of the passing of the Budget Day Financial Resolutions."

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjEvNzMucyIAxXHQEEAHSsOEMcQFnoECCcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.gov.ie%2F273417%2F430c99b2-d5ea-43cf-8fd4-a434eea84ec8.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0oSduy5pbzfQqAqHlnI-pv&opi=89978449

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629680#Comment_122629680

100% agree with you, they are not root cause at all.

However their actions to help their kids are exasperating an existing issue for everyone else.

I've mates (couples) in their late 30's that have just bought their house, they both have worked hard, both have been in full time employment and never accessed state aid.

I've another friend, also in his late 30's whose father and brother went guarantor for him on a 100% tracker mortgage at 19 (wasn't even finished college) the house was rented out and basically paid for itself, they also did some stuff with the tax (3 of them are accountants)

I'm happy for all of them that they got something, everyone that works hard should get somewhere secure to live.

I also get that life isn't fair but I don't think it should be "that" unfair.

3 of us grew up in the same estate

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629723#Comment_122629723

I 100% agree the government should be doing more to help people get their first house— the fact you need to have 10-20k at minimum savings, plus deposits, plus a “clean” current account record to even THINK about getting a mortgage is ridiculous.

Then go through months of interrogation from the bank and (allegedly according to a comment I seen here) have the whole thing fall through at the last moment because you dared buy a lotto ticket.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629735#Comment_122629735

You might wanna at a 0 to that 10-20k deposit if you're looking for a house in Dublin.

Given the inward migration of adults looking for work with the multinationals, the population is rising so fast that it's going to be impossible to build enough residential accommodation for everyone.

I heard some mental statistic on the radio about 3 weeks ago stating that we need to build and additional 2 million units by 2050. That's not possible. It's like 75,000 a year for the next 26 years… there's no way

With the above in mind, I think housing stock should have some degree of protection sitting over it.

If people wanna buy their kids houses, that's fine, but maybe there should be tax implications for it.
Same with people sitting on property that's empty.
Same with profiteering in the housing market.

There needs to be multiple avenues of fair regulation on housing.

Full disclosure: My kid has ASD, he WILL need help. He's under 10 now so that's grand. But when the time comes I will have to help him and I expect there to be implications regarding inheritance and tax.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629827#Comment_122629827

There are tax implications for buying a house for your child. Capital Acquisitions Tax.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629735#Comment_122629735

Do you want a return to 100% mortgages and the mess that was created by not requiring a deposit to buy a property?

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629841#Comment_122629841

For the average Joe, yes, CAT is difficult to avoid, and only really comes into play when a person dies and there is inheritance. There is very little you can do with the income source once the person it's coming from is dead.

For those more well off (that aren't dead), you can plan you're way around some CAT.

For example if your remaining parent is sick/dying, you can move into their house for the last X months of their life and declare that as your primary residence and if they leave the property to you (even if it's work more than the €350k upper limit) you don't have to pay inheritance tax on that as it's your home.

There's a heap of stuff that can ben done via companies, investments, 0% interest loans and having companies outside of the state.

Unless someone like Sinn Fein gets in I don't ever see this tightening up, that being said I wouldn't be a huge fan of the shinners.

I've dragged the thread off topic, sorry.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629897#Comment_122629897

Does the average Joe really have a parent buyinga house and handing it to them?

The ultra wealthy who can do as you describe, pay accountants and lawyers to expose the loopholes sure, but they also generate a bucket load of tax revenue for the state so I'm sure the state is OK with the status quo.

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629845#Comment_122629845

did I say that? No, I don’t think I did.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629923#Comment_122629923

You'd be surprised at the help that a lot people receive, maybe not buying a house outright, but things like early inheritance, renting at a knockdown rate from parents, etc all help

I think you are correct though in that as far as the tax is concerned, it's small fry, like really small, a lot less than a billion I'd say. Particularly when you factor in that the state is looking at 30/40 Billion in corporate tax receipts.

That being said, these multinationals needs workers. workers need somewhere to live, A large proportion of the workers are not native. There is a chance that social cohesion could be put under pressure if things keep going the way they are. (we've already seen a good few riots/issues)

If that happens the corporate tax receipts will disappear and we're back to square one. It's a difficult balancing act. My vague opinion is; any native reasonably contributing to the exchequer should be at least be able to buy a 1 bed apartment, relatively close (commutable) to where they work. that is not the case at the moment.

If you're interested, the Australian police force recruitment drive from a few months (not weeks) back:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0320/1438887-garda-australia/

timmyntc

The giveaway budget has never actually shown a material increase in support for the government of the day.

It would be incredibly foolish to do a giveaway budget at all, and even moreso to rely on that as your pre-election poll-booster.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630076#Comment_122630076

SSIA maturity almost certainly bought the 2007 election for FF, or more accurately stopped them losing even more seats and being unable to form a coalition - polling had been tending towards an FG-Labour government and they'd all but agreed a programme for government.

Promising a giveaway budget bought the 1977 election. We're still suffering the consequential damage to local government.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630026#Comment_122630026

inheritance and gift tax accounted for just 0.7 per cent of total tax revenues for 2023, or just 0.6 per cent for inheritance taxes alone.

It’s also less than motor tax, which, at €905 million, represents 1 per cent of the tax take.

Inheritance tax: How many people actually pay it?

https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2024/09/10/inheritance-tax-how-many-people-actually-pay-it/

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630105#Comment_122630105

And conversely Fg's proposal for one very modest 'fiscally responsible' measure - raising the pension age by a year - almost handed the last election to SF..

https://www.businesspost.ie/election/pension-row-may-have-saved-sinn-feins-election/

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630235#Comment_122630235

There's also more taken in from Group B - grandparents and aunts/uncles - than Group A - parents. But its always the Group A threshold people talk about raising; which really only benefits either people with astoundingly wealthy parents, or one child families.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630235#Comment_122630235

Fully take you're point, and it's 100% correct, as I guessed it's tiny

However getting 150k-350k inheritance in your 20/30s is VERY different from getting it in your 50s/60s. The leg up it gives you is incredible.

I earn more than all my mates, I've worked harder at my education and career than any of them have, but most of them all have bigger and better houses than me. They got that leg up that I didn't get. I contribute more to the exchequer than they do, but they have done better than me.

I happy for them, but it bugs me a tiny bit that I don't have that despite working harder. Like I'm lucky, I could be in Ukraine or Palestine I suppose.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122629897#Comment_122629897

You need to live there for 3 years before the inheritance not a few months. And stay in it for 6 years after.
It’s really not a viable tax dodge

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630249#Comment_122630249

It's actually a disgrace that group B is less than 10% of the group A threshold in this day and age and given the paltry amount of tax it generates. They should be the same as it's just an antiquated penalty on those who don't have children.

Raichų

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122630846#Comment_122630846

I don’t think you’ll find the government encouraging people not to have children, considering the state would cease to exist in such an event.

Markus Antonius

Only in Ireland can you have year after year of record surplus tax takes, have the government openly brag about it, then come out budget season and say "this is not a time for a giveaway budget. Any moment we could have the rug pulled out from under us, so we need a rainy day fund"

Then proceed to piss the rainy day fund away on literally everything that has no benefit to the electorate.

And the biggest scandal of all is that this electorate, with the memory of a goldfish, will vote the same clowns in again next election. It's sickening...

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122631742#Comment_122631742

There have been two years of budget surpluses, following huge budget deficits.

twinytwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122631742#Comment_122631742

But who do people vote for? Its either FF/FG, the crazies on the left, Aontu or a raft of independents.

At this stage id settle for the greens out of government/wiped out entirely - that is unfortunately about as good as its going to get.

Kermit.de.frog

FG are 7 points ahead according to the Irish Times today. They might regret not going to the polls before Christmas.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122632208#Comment_122632208

And this is the problem. FF/FG/greens keep getting back into power because people are living in fear of the alternative. Unfortunately, the last election, the protest vote went towards useless Sinn Fein. But I think people know better now.

While it may be chaotic, I think the only option is to flood the Dail with independents, purely to send a message to the bigger parties. Why wouldn't FF/FG shaft us when they know we'll just keep voting them in?

Kermit.de.frog

The budgets being introduced now are as reckless as those during the Celtic Tiger (and Sinn Féin would be worse for this again). If just a handful of companies change their global tax arrangements the money is going to disappear like it did last time with the housing boom.

Giveaway budgets. It's the exact same mistakes again. Lessons not learned. I'd have assumed the trauma of the last crash and the IMF bailout would be fried in to everyone's brain.