When will the next general election be?

dulpit

With the results today pointing towards a better than expected result for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the Greens not doing as poorly as originally expected and with Sinn Féin disappointing, just wondering what people think about date of next general election.

It has to be by March 2025. It has been widely suggested it will be in November after budget. But if the results look good why wait? Sinn fein seem a bit of a mess now as to candidate selection (do they have too many?) and there does seem to be a slight bounce for fine gael since Harris took over.

The logic of waiting until March is that you were elected for 5 years and you should serve the full term. It also gives Harris more time to bed into the taoiseach office and the weather should be improving. The negative is that any benefits from budget might be forgotten. And if you go all the way to the end you don't have any room to manoeuvre should something unexpected crop up. You also give the likes of sinn fein and the new independent groupings more time to prepare. You will also need to have by-elections to replace TDs elected as MEPs which could be used to give the government a smack which could cause a downward trend.

The logic of waiting until November is that you get the benefit of the presumed budget giveaway which should be fresh in people's minds. You will also avoid the need for by-elections to replace TDs elected as MEPs. But the negatives are that the weather will be grim and it may still be enough time for the opposition parties to get ducks in a row on the back of yesterday's election.

The logic of going for a snap election is that you are taking advantage of perceived strength of government parties and weakness of opposition. You may also catch them on the hop making it even more pronounced. And the weather should be quite good. The negatives are that it could be perceived as being opportunistic and the government could be punished. Plus they won't get the benefit of a budget later this year. And there's also the issue of Harris being such a recent taoiseach. He's already guaranteed to go into election as they shortest ever serving taoiseach and he might want to serve as long as possible in case he loses.

My view is that they'll probably wait until November, but if I was making the call I'd go with a vote in July or August.

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rolling boh

Has to be hugely tempting to go shortly,the fragmentation of the opposition has played out nicely for the present crew plus with Simon having had a good start it looks like he will be an electoral asset unlike Leo .

Cluedo Monopoly

100% it will be this year.

Whatever about Oct/Nov weather, an election campaign in February is utter misery and everyone is fed up after a long winter. Plus the hospitals are always in dire shape and FFG don't want reminders of that.

Atlantic Dawn

Rumours of 15th November being the date.

billyhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235389#Comment_122235389

That's what I heard aswell.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235389#Comment_122235389

Heard Ivan Yates say November on Newstalk earlier on.

He's usually not too far off the mark with his predictions.

Pauliedragon

I hate all this strategic nonsense when it comes to general elections. It's not the world cup final and the manager is deciding which subs to make at the hour mark to win the game. This is politicians deciding when they have a better chance of winning rather than the best interests of the place. "Sur lets give pensioners 20 quid instead of a tenner Mick that'll get us some votes". If an election has to be held by March the rule should be they have the election between the 1st and 31st of March.

JP Liz V1

I think October / November this year

mickdw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235454#Comment_122235454

So really exactly like the world Cup where suitably timed move might win the day.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235454#Comment_122235454

Someones angry today.

Pauliedragon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235533#Comment_122235533

I'm actually grand😊 it's just annoying these guessing games about something so important. I probably went a bit overboard with oul post😋

StoutPost

If it were up to me, if SF were to do poorly in the locals in particular, I'd got for a snap election. From what little I've seen FG and FF have done ok, they will have options as to who might make a tolerable bed fellow. Leaving it to the Autumn may open the door for one of those "little things" that can happen in politics to happen.

LordBasil

My guess would be Friday 1st November. Have the budget late September/ early October then a few days later SH calls General Election. October campaigning won't be too bad weather wise. The week of the election would begin with a Bank Holiday Monday and day before voting would be Halloween so hopefully people would be in good mood.

gym_imposter

FFG - RTE troika party rule for the next twenty years

zell12

Ball in your court, Harris

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/europeennes/direct-elections-europeennes-estimations-resultats-et-reactions-en-live-suivez-notre-soiree-speciale_LN-202406090320.html

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240609-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-polls-open-european-elections-parliament

keeponhurling

It's a gamble.

If Harris goes early and wins, it'll be master stroke and he can settle in for a full term as Taoiseach.

But if he loses, then he'd be one of the shortest serving Taoisigh ever I'd imagine. A dubious honour.

FG still need to get new candidates in place with all the retirements.

I don't think the relatively good showing by FFG in the local and European elections is necessarily a ringing endorsement of the current government in Dail Eireann, they're still vulnerable.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244452#Comment_122244452

Has Harris not already answered this question 10-20 times in interviews already? what exactly has changed?

I said it a long time, time is SF enemy, the more time they are allowed between elections the more they will lose support, they are an incompetent shambles and I expect them to start a big infight anytime soon which will help the government.

MLMD going onto TV to call everyone idiots for mixing up SF with the government

Then doing an interview to say they need to look at their policies? they have had 5 years to look at their policies. What exactly are they going to change now? a shambles

MFPM

It won't be the summer, October/November most likely, the date of the budget will be key, if it's moved forward then an election will follow quickly, if not they may wait full term.

There's alot of hyperbole in the media on the back of the elections and huge schadenfreude against SF, some of which they deserve but it's 'centrist' media championing the centrist parties.

The GE will be different, higher turn out for a start, SF will do better than the last few days but predictions of 70 seats are now probably wide of the mark. I'm also not convinced Labour/Soc Dems will make many gains, again the media coverage of them has been overly positive IMO.

Real Donald Trump

Giveaway budget followed by Nov elections imo

billyhead

The only issue with a GE following the budget is that the Finance and welfare bills need to be passed to enact budget changes. Will the government hold off until this is done?

StoutPost

Talking to a man earlier he made a good point regarding turnout and SF. Earlier I said if Govt went well and SF faired poorly then Govt (for their own ends not because I wish them well) should call an early election. But he reckoned that SF need a turnout of 65% to get their full vote out 🤷‍♂️

beachhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235389#Comment_122235389

While Simon bring in as many budget benefits before that date? All we can depend iis taxes up at midnight on budget day for the likes of cigs,fuel,carbon tax and alcohol must due a hit.

MFPM

Seems to be some suggestions that by-elections could be earlier than expected, possibly September which would imply a 2025 election, though I still think Autumn is the best bet.

The by-elections in Carlow/Kilkenny which SF will hold, Clare assuming McNamara stays in Europe - no idea how this will go and hard to see Labour holding AOR's seat, FF will hold Cowen's seat.

griffin100

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235410#Comment_122235410

Yates is a spoofer. Last week on Newstalk (his sugar daddy's old station) he predicted the total collapse of the FG vote in the local elections and an extra 70 seats for SF. That said I do think he's right on this though, give away budget in October targeting the people who get up for work early in the morning and an election soon afterwards.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244476#Comment_122244476

Time may also be SF's friend. If the general election was tomorrow they would be in trouble but given time they can improve while anything could happen for the government parties including things outside their control, think Covid, Russia invading Ukraine. You never know their could be a change of leadership for SF. Look what it did for FG.

If the party strategists are not looking at every scenario for the election timing then they are a shambles. I also would not expect Simon Harris to be providing insight into those strategy discussions when asked about the election date.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255430#Comment_122255430

Honestly a change in leadership for SF would be who?

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122255571#Comment_122255571

Whoever might be appointed - P. O'Neill for example.

I'm not saying it is likely but who thought on St. Patrick's day FG would have a new leader.

You seem to think there is nobody who could take on the job and be seen as an improvement. Simon Harris is a good example of someone getting leadership and performing better than many would have expected.

Galwayguy35

Would Harris really want to have to go through 4 or maybe 5 by elections only to have to call a GE 3 or 4 months later?

Odds are the 3 parties have already decided on a date but instead of being honest with the people who voted them in they will continue to lie to us.

Silentcorner

How many by elections are due after the European elections? How will that affect the thinking.

We are in very strange times, I don't think anyone could predict what will happen in the GE, myself included.

It is however, difficult to see a Government with out FF/Fg….I just don't see it. The only hope for people like me is a good showing by an Independent Ireland (or whatever they are called) who might put the brakes on a lot of the silly culture policies and might just refocus the Govt on real issues affecting most of us.

It's looking we are outliers in Europe at this stage.

dulpit

What are the "silly culture policies" you refer to?

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122260891#Comment_122260891

I refer you to the joke of a referendum that was put to us last March as an example.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122260810#Comment_122260810

I didn't vote for any of them but they're lying to me too!! As for the election it will be October/ November..that's a certainty..

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122260898#Comment_122260898

Wasn't that as a result of a citizens assembly which recommended it?

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261389#Comment_122261389

I thought it was those headbangers in the NWCI but I'll agree to disagree, in any case it doesn't matter, it was a complete waste of time and energy, there are a large amount of entities in this country that are funded to do nothing but push agenda's like that….which is why I called them "silly cultural policies"….we need a government focused on issues that actually help people, let's be completely honest here, it's not like we are short on crises.

kowloonkev

There have been only four general elections held in the last quarter of the year in the history of the state (1918 Dec, 1961 Oct, 1982 Nov & 1992 Nov). The most recent three elections have been held in February (2011, 2016 & 2020).

The most popular days for holding elections are Wednesday 9, Thursday 8, Tuesday 7, Friday 6, Saturday 2 (1918 & 2020), Monday 1 (1923). It has never been held on a Sunday.

I don't know what my point was.

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122253437#Comment_122253437

No need for the Goverment to have any by-electiobs untill February. Something to do with something that was brought in during Brexit negotiations. That's what I heard on the news yesterday.

I think the budget will be in October as normal and the elections will be in March next year just has the weather starts to get good again and people will also be happy as it will be a giveaway budget in October and all the measures will have passed by then.

If we were to do what Emanual Macron the fool did in France and have a snap election the markets will come down on us like a ton of bricks and our credit rating will go bad. France is big and could take that hit. We can not. It would take us years to get back a good credit rating again.

It's not like the 80s where you could have a snap election every other week. News happens a lot faster now and markets act a lot faster.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261834#Comment_122261834

There won't be a Macron style snap election but I think there is now little doubt there will be a GE in late October early November...I'd say it's 95% certain the 5% doubt is really just for something unforseen happening.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261834#Comment_122261834

I haven't heard anyone say anything other than by-elections must be within 6 months of a seat being vacated.

Why would brexit negotiations have changed something to do with electing representatives to any national parliament.

During the last european elections meps did get elected but didn't take their seats until the UK left the EU. In that case a TD if elected but would not take up the position until the later date they may have continued to hold their dail seat but I'm not sure.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261995#Comment_122261995

Gavan Reilly explains why the by-elections could be pushed out till the middle of February

https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1801620111708606933

https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1801626356632989961

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262069#Comment_122262069

Thanks that makes sense

He's out by a month, 6 months from the middle of July is middle of January but the election could be mid February.

However they will be called for the autumn or not at all. The government would be seen as wasting time and money holding by-elections a month before a general election needs to be called.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262098#Comment_122262098

Did you look at the second post?

https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1801626356632989961

They only have to *call* the election by then. Doesn't have to happen until 29 days after that,

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262123#Comment_122262123

I think I misread the 1st one and thought it read February. Gavin is correct in what he stated.

The election needs to be held by mid February.

However the dail needs to be dissolved on or before 19 February. If the by-elections are not in the autumn then they will be superseded by the general election.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261834#Comment_122261834

No chance. They are not going to do bye elections around Xmas time. Election will be this year. Our credit rating has nothing to do with it. Nobody will view it as a snap election if it's in late October or November, it's just a sensible decision. I'd love FFG to keep going until March but they won't be that stupid.

Macron is making the Mitterrand gamble and it could well work. The far right will have to put their money where their mouth is and he hopes they crash and burn quickly.

zell12

Will SD have a preggers bounce when voters see Cairns campaigning?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0615/1454919-holly-cairns/

zell12

Is anyone keeping note how many times Harris, Martin et al say the government will run its full term until March 2025?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122624389#Comment_122624389

The same result could be acheived by making a note of how many times they are asked the question. They have no interest in raising the issue but, every time it is raised, this is the only answer they can give.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122235342#Comment_122235342

FG are in a peculiar place, polls have them performing well but a large portion of its TD base is retiring at the election. The additional 3 months might give the opportunity for the new unknown candidates to tart themselves about a bit. Some of the desire to vote for FG will transition in the face of unknown names in many constituencies.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122624398#Comment_122624398

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122624398#Comment_122624398

MM on the radio this morning saying it’s important to keep going to get the Mental Health Amendment Bill passed. It will be interesting to see how many longstanding bills get guillotined and those which get abandoned.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122624657#Comment_122624657

There are various pieces of legislation outstanding for the current Dail

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2024/0713/1459648-politics-outstanding-legislation/

Harris may have determined there is not enough time to get even those he really prioritises passed if the election is this year

Beta Ray Bill

I originally thought the election would be after the budget, but I think Mr Harris would love a white house visit.

He might hold off until mid March. It may depend on who wins the US election, doubt he'd be bothered with Mr Trump but would go to meet Mrs Harris for sure.

We'll see…