Aintree Grand National

del roy

Some light reading over a cuppa…..

AINTREE FESTIVAL GRADE 1’s
There have been 66 Grade 1 races at the last six Aintree
Grand National Festivals
Producing…
66 winners & 167 Win & Place Horses
From 572 runners

The Stats…
65 of 66 winners recorded a top 2 finish on 1 of their last 3
starts – Horses that didn’t meet this returned… 1/49, 5p – 69% below
expected
65 of 66 winners were TOP-RATED or rated no more than
17lbs below top-rated (on official ratings) – Horses that didn’t
meet this returned… 1/109, 9p – 78% below expected
64 of 66 winners started at an SP of 16/1 or less – Horses that
didn’t meet this returned… 2/198, 12p – 65% below expected
63 of 66 winners had previously run at G1 or G2 level – Horses
that didn’t meet this returned… 3/111, 14p – 60% below expected
61 of 66 winners ran in a NON-HANDICAP last time out –
Horses that didn’t meet this returned… 5/111, 21p – 45% below expected
61 of 66 winners had 1 or 2 starts in the last 90-days – Horses
that didn’t meet this returned… 5/105, 20p – 50% below expected

The Trainers…

NICKY HENDERSON
Overall stats…
16/64 | 25% S/R | -£20.16 – W&P 28/64 | 44% S/R
Best angle…
N Henderson | Aintree G1’s | 2-5 seasonal starts | previously won at G1 or
G2 level | Top 3 finish LTO
15/22 | 68% S/R | +£15.05 – W&P 17/22 | 77% S/R (66% above exp)
**
PAUL NICHOLLS
Overall stats…
8/53 | 15% S/R | +£0.93 – W&P 18/53 | 34% S/R
Best angle…
P Nicholls | Aintree G1’s | FR Bred geldings | previously run at track | DSLR
56 or less
7/15 | 47% S/R | +£36.90 – W&P 11/15 | 73% S/R (146% above exp)
**
GORDON ELLIOTT (2021 - Mrs D Foster)
Overall stats…
7/24 | 29% S/R | +£29.95 – W&P 11/24 | 46% S/R
Best angle…
G Elliott | Aintree G1’s | 4-6 seasonal starts | DSLR 16-42
7/15 | 47% S/R | +£38.95 – W&P 9/15 | 60% S/R (123% above exp)
**
LUCINDA RUSSELL
Overall stats…
3/5 | 60% S/R | +£143.69 – W&P 5/5 | 100% S/R
Best angle…
No need to tighten things any further here and any horse that Lucinda
Russell enters in a G1 at Aintree demands respect, even with just limited
evidence to work with… she has saddled winners at BFSP 26.81 & 120.09
and also had a 173.70 shot finish 3rd (100/1 SP – 27.93 BF Place SP)…

The Owners…

JP McMANUS
Overall stats…
15/39 | 38% S/R | +£25.29 – W&P 25/39 | 64% S/R (48% above exp)
Best angle…
DSLR 56 or less | 4+ starts in current season
14/25 | 56% S/R | +£36.98 – W&P 21/25 | 84% S/R (72% above exp)

AINTREE FESTIVAL HANDICAPS*

*Grand National excluded from these stats
There have been 36 Handicap races at the last six Aintree
Grand National Festivals
Producing…
36 winners & 137 Win & Place Horses
From 710 runners
The Stats…
36 of 36 winners were returning off a break of 18-92 days –
Horses that didn’t meet this returned… 0/108, 14p
35 of 36 winners were officially rated 4lbs or lower than the
top-rated horse – Horses that didn’t meet this returned… 1/64, 11p –
80% below expected
35 of 36 winners had 6 or less previous career wins – Horses
that didn’t meet this returned… 1/110, 12p – 83% below expected
33 of 36 winners ran in a C1, C2 or C3 race LTO – Horses that
didn’t meet this returned… 3/83, 9p – 46% below expected
33 of 36 winners were yet to WIN a race at Aintree – Horses
that didn’t meet this returned… 3/67, 10p – 34% below expected
33 of 36 winners wore NO headgear – Horses that didn’t meet this
returned… 3/234, 25p – 78% below expected
31 of 36 winners had 8 or less Handicap starts in specific
NH code – Horses that didn’t meet this returned… 5/214, 29p – 49%
below expected

GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS

The big race itself has changed shape in recent season, with modifications
being made to the fences, the distance of the race, weights being
compressed at the top end, various conditions needing to be met before
you can run in the race… and this year also has the maximum field size
reduced from 40 to 34…
With that in mind the long-term Race Trends that used to work so well in
the race are not as reliable as they used to be (in my opinion anyway)… we
can still, however, make use of the more recent renewals of the National
and construct a strong enough of set of Race Trends using those races…
Which is what I have done below, using the last eight renewals of the
Grand National to pull together the following…

Aintree Grand National Race Trends

(2015-2023 – no race in 2020)
*Only UK & Irish form considered
✓ 8/8 aged 7, 8 or 9 (0/139 aged 10yo+)
✓ 8/8 7-19 Chase starts (0/86 out with range)
✓ 8/8 1-7 Handicap Chase starts (0/160 out with range)
✓ 8/8 3-7 starts in current season (0/69 out with range)
✓ 8/8 DSLR 24-85 (0/68 out with range)
✓ 8/8 ran in a C1 or C2 Chase LTO and were beaten no more than
25-lengths (0/153 out with range)
✓ 8/8 jockey ridden horse at least once previously (0/83 out with
range)
✓ 8/8 top 2 finish 1 of last 3 starts (0/112 out with range)



Now those stats for the 'Freebooter' Handicap Chase...



On the overall Race Trends front it isn't actually one of the better races... which won't be an issue for me as I'll have a wealth of notes and angles for the runners anyway (handicap chasers taking up the highest percentage of my horse notes)...

...but I did uncover a very interesting stat/angle for the race, concerning where the winners ran Last Time Out (LTO)...



That angle being...

15 of the 26 winners ran at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL LTO

No massive surprise there... but when you look a bit closer it works out as 58% of the winners from only 41% of overall runners...

And as always I like to give the figures a bit of a tighten up... and once I had a bit of a deeper dive I came up with the following...

Ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (and did NOT Pull-Up) | 0-1 previous Handicap Chase wins | SP 12/1 or less (at Aintree)


...which returned figures of...



13/56 | 23% S/R | +£43.75 - W&P 28/56 | 50% S/R

(E/W = +£59.10) | 57% above expectation



*I knocked out the 2 meetings that were within 3-weeks of Cheltenham, they were tricky ones for horses to be running to their best...



Obviously this angle won't find you the winner every year... I wouldn't expect it to... but it's a decent angle to have on your side, especially since it pulls at a 50% strike-rate on the Win & Place side of things...



I'll be highlighting the qualifiers to NTF Members in my Day 3 Aintree Festival race day guide (remember, the above angle concerns the handicap chase due to be run at 2:30pm next Saturday, 13th April...) and using it to help me paint an overall picture of the race... before deciding where my own money will be going...

Keep the angle in mind for next weekend...



Now for those Aintree stats...



And today I'm focusing on...



Previous Aintree Festival winners...



Are these types worth backing or should they be avoided?



I'll let the stats do the talking...



Record of horses running at the Aintree Grand National Festival that had previously WON at the Aintree Grand National Festival...



(Since 2008)

41/314 | 13% S/R | +£204.89 BFLSP - W&P 94/314 | 30% S/R

(2% below exp) | E/W = +£40.07



A good start... some healthy profits to Betfair SP if backing blind... but as always I love to tighten things up... so let's get stuck into a bit of that...



Drop the young and the old...



6yo-11yo



41/278 | 15% S/R | +£240.89 BFLSP - W&P 87/278 | 31% S/R

(5% above exp) | E/W = +£90.52



Younger than 6yo & older than 11yo



0/36, 7p



————



Concentrate on the top end races...



Class 1



40/282 | 14% S/R | +£233.83 BFLSP - W&P 90/282 | 32% S/R

(3% above exp) | E/W +£88.11



Class 2



1/32, 3p



————



Concentrate on those that have had at least 3 starts in current season...



3+ seasonal starts



40/249 | 16% S/R | +£262.42 BFLSP - W&P 79/249 | 32% S/R

(13% above exp) | E/W = +£107.57



2 or less seasonal starts



1/65, 14p



————



And finally...



Drop those that failed to complete Last Time Out (LTO)...



Completed race LTO



40/259 | 15% S/R | +£241.07 BFLSP - W&P 81/259 | 31% S/R

(8% above exp) | E/W = +£101.08



Failed to Complete race LTO



1/55, 12p



----



Pulling it all together gives...



Previously WON at Aintree GN Festival | 6yo-11yo running in a Class 1 race | 3+ starts in current season | Completed race LTO



38/186 | 20% S/R | +£303.54 BFLSP - W&P 66/186 | 35% S/R

(30% above exp) | E/W = +£186.43



Nice 👌



Only ONCE since 2008 was there NOT a winner at Aintree on this angle... and that came in 2021... there was no Aintree Grand National meeting in 2020 due to Covid... which likely explains why the angle didn't produce a winner in 2021...



So I think it is safe to say that YES, previous Aintree Festival winners ARE worth backing...



It's probably not an angle I would personally follow blindly... but I do have the angle plugged into one of my databases and I will definitely be using it as part of my overall Aintree analysis for this weeks action... and hell, it may be so damn muddy at Aintree this week that it will be an even BIGGER bonus to have previous winning experience of Aintree on the CV! Might be a case of some horses engaging autopilot as they won't be able to see anything for all the damn mud that will be flying about!! 🫣

Keep the angle in mind for this week's Aintree action...

del roy

..free stats from www.narrowingthefield and racingforprofit

howareyakid

1:45: Il Etait Temps 11/4

2:55: Gerri Colombe 7/4 

3:30: Impaire et Passe 11/8

4:05: Cat Tiger 33/1 e/w

4:40: Sans Bruit 6/1

5:15: Baby Kate 2/1

1:45: Grey Dawning could well justify odds-on favoritism, but there is a lot to like about Il Etait Temps. There is the case to be made that Cheltenham isn’t his track, and stepping up in trip, he could just be suited to the conditions here.

2:55: Gerri Colombe progressed his form following GDC at Cheltenham, and last year after a tough race in the Brown Advisory, he was able to turn around and win at Aintree. So the turnaround isn’t an issue here, and I feel he is a solid favourite.

3:30: One of the big talking horses from last year’s Cheltenham, I think Impaire Et Passe’s form is still very solid, having chased State Man (twice) and Teahupoo home in his three runs so far this season, and he gets the vote in this race. Luccia next on the list at 10/1.

4:05: Cat Tiger is a big price here but he has finished 3rd and 2nd in this race in 2021 and 2022. Still only 10, he could be primed for a big run, so willing to take a chance each way at a price.

4:40: A chase winner in France, this horse should relish testing conditions, and is an interesting runner for Paul Nicholls.

5:15: This horse’s form ahead of Switch from Diesel seems to be a good level. There is a lot to like about this mare and for a trainer whose record in bumpers is second to absolutely nobody. Looking forward to this one!  

wazzzledazzle

Impaire Et Passe and Kargese 10 win double

kksaints

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122003865#Comment_122003865

Nice four timer there. Well done.

JP Liz V1

Meetingofthewaters and Kitty's Light both e/w for me

howareyakid

1:45: Inothewayurthikin 9/4

2:20: Kateira 4/1 

2:55: Dysart Enos 9/2

3:30: Jonbon 6/4 NAP

4:05: Shakem Up’arry 6/1

4:40: Croke Park 7/1

1:45: As impressive as INOTHRWAYURTHINKIN was in the Kim Muir, I don’t think it screamed of a really strong race. However, the way this horse won it off top weight, and added to impressive looking form behind Gaelic Warrior etc., he’s definitely the one to beat.

2:20: KATEIRA’s form behind Irish Point here last year is very eye-catching. Lightly raced since, she has and obvious chance. 

2:55: Fascinating runner here. DYSART ENOS has potential star quality, possibly, and after missing Cheltenham due to a setback, she is coming here fresh. It will be exciting to see what she can do in this company. 

3:30: Sir Gino today confirmed that Henderson’s horses seem to be back to form, and I think another of his star horses in JONBON will bounce back here.

4:05: SHAKEM UP’ARRY won impressively at Cheltenham last time out and has been running to a very consistent level. He ran well at this festival last year coming off a good run at Cheltenham, also, so there’s nothing to say he can’t build on his run last time out again here over the National fences.

 4:40: I’m not willing to forgive Readin Tommy Wrong’s run in the AB last time out, and horses coming from that very attritional race don’t tend to have a good record in this. CROKE PARK comes here fresh and by all accounts will relish the step up in trip, so I’m going to side with him. 

munsterlegend

Dysart enos is now out.

Vinnie222

Firefox 2 55 and Zeeband e/w 5 15

howareyakid

1:45: West Balboa 9/4

2:20: Brighterdaysahead 1/1 NAP

2:55: Forward Plan 6/1

3:30: Hiddenvalley Lake 4/1

4:05: Corach Rambler 8/1

4:40: Found a Fifty 13/8

1:45: Winner of this last year and returning after a quiet campaign for the Skeltons… we’ve seen this before! They’ve pulled a few of these off, most notably with Langer Dan at Cheltenham and Kateira yesterday.

2:20: With her full brother, Caldwell Potter, a non runner, this is all about BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. Second in the mares’ novice — form which has been franked by Jade De Grugy at Fairyhouse — the step up in trip should see her to much better effect, and I think she will prove to be the best horse here.

2:55: FORWARD PLAN has have a very productive campaign with two wins and a second, and I’m hoping he could be primed for another big run here.  

3:30: I can never seem to pick the winners of these staying hurdle races, but I’m going to side with HIDDENVALLEY LAKE here. He was the ante post favourite for the AB last year for a long time, but ended up fading out in it. HDB said subsequently that he left his race behind him after a tough race st Clonmel a few weeks beforehand, where he lost to Monty’s Star. He’ll need a career best to win here, but hopefully we might have it in him. 

4:00: I’m going to back CORACH RAMBLER to make it back-to-back Grand Nationals. The way he took to the test last year suggested that he won it with a bit in hand, and his effort in the Gold Cup showed he’s capable of putting in a big race in open company. From his current mark, I feel he has another big run in him. Minella Indo and Foxy Jacks were two at each way prices that looked interesting.

 4:40: I have a feeling there could be something in here that has a big improvement in them. For example Quilixios seemed to leave his race behind him at the start in Cheltenham and there still could be a big potential for improvement in there. However, it’s very hard to knock the form and consistency of FOUND A FIFTY, who chased home the talented Gaelic Warrior at Cheltenham and It Etait Temps at the DRF. 

howareyakid

My times are wrong in post above - not reflecting today’s different start times!

howareyakid

That was more like it from Brighterdays! Won so impressively there!

howareyakid

”She’s very good,” says Gordon Elliott.

Justin10

Pity it's probably too soon for Punchestown, but herself against Ballyburn be a test for both of them.

Loafing Oaf

Main National wager is Mac Tottie e/w

also on sky all-to-place bets on

Corach Rambler/Mahler Mission/Panda Boy

Delata Work/I Am Maximus/ Vanillier

kksaints

Mahler Mission

Coko Beach

Nassalm

Roi Mage

All each way.

BorneTobyWilde

Foxy Jacks 28-1 ew

Coko Beach 20-1 ew

Meeting of the Waters 12-1 ew WINNER

The Goffer 66-1 ew

Latenightpass 28-1 ew 🤩🤩

My likes

mailburner

vanillier at 16s

backed it on Thurs at 8s too 🤷

howareyakid

Minella Indo gave Rachael some spin - I was sure he was going to win coming around the bend! Great race though and it seems all horses made it around OK which is great news. Willie and Paul are top men👏

howareyakid

Favourite in the last I suppose!! Mister Meggit seeks to be well fancied for Jonjo O’Neill as well.

howareyakid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122013335#Comment_122013335

Brighterdaysahead and Caldwell Potter are half-siblings, just to correct the record!! What a dam Matnie is though: Mighty Potter, Caldwell Potter, French Dynamite, Indiana Jones and Brighterdaysahead her progeny🤯