House price predictions for 2024

Timing belt

time of year again to make your predictions for the year ahead please vote and explain logic for your prediction.

SharkMX

House prices increase by 5-10%

Going to go with 5 - 10%

If interest rates come down its going to be a bloodbath.

dr.dundrum

House prices increase by 0-5%

By Bloodbath you mean more than 5-10% ?

SharkMX

House prices increase by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121547159#Comment_121547159

I would consider 5 - 10 a bloodbath myself.

Hoping to be done with my purchase before the inevitable interest rate reduction.

Timing belt

House prices decrease by 0-5%

my Prediction is that house prices will decline marginally as businesses cut costs because raising prices further will lead to reduced turnover as consumers tighten their belts and become cost conscious. The house prices on the average New builds will probably remain in the 0-5% range but the decrease in other areas of the market drag the overall prices down.

The one unknown for me are apartments which will probably see massive investment by housing bodies and governments and private buyers will avoid As they believe that these buildings will be considered 75%+ social housing and due to the fact that they are being outbid by their own taxes.

SharkMX

House prices increase by 5-10%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121547221#Comment_121547221

We are looking at apartments but for exactly the reasons you mentioned avoiding new build apartments. We are having a good hard look around any complex where we see an apartment we are interested in. Some of them are shocking and put you off right away when you go into the complex.

House prices decrease by 0-5%

I think prices will stay where they are or drop slightly as demand remains. Rents however will rise further as LLs sell in anticipation of loony SF policies if elected to govern.

theboringfox

House prices increase by 10-15%

I think interest rate reductions and ongoing wage rises and people trying to avoid high rents continue to fuel demand side. Supply side improves but remains insufficient to keep up with demand. I expect to see in around 5%-7%.

The Student

House prices increase by 5-10%

I would expect 5 to 10 % increase driven mostly outside big cities. Prices at lower end in cities still have room to increase where high end prices €500k plus unlikely to see much if any increase.

highgiant1985

House prices increase by 0-5%

House prices increase by 0-5%

Why:

Honestly I've no idea what the market will do given limited supply but potential economic concerns so voted small growth based on a vested self interest as planning to sell current home towards the end of 2024 when new self build should be finished so I'd like prices to remain stable or increase!

J_1980

House prices increase by 10-15%

Up 10-15%

supply will collapse, already very low right now (ok it’s Christmas, but still). Rates will drop somewhat and there will be no net sellers (landlords that want to, will have already sold mostly).

Also Irish property is quite underpriced vs similar countries.

timmyntc

House prices increase by 0-5%

Political pressure to help FTBs will see LTI rules raised to 4x, and then prices jump by equal amount to the increase in buyer funds, as always happens.

JCN12

House prices increase by 0-5%

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121547624#Comment_121547624

The government already raised the LTI rules to 4x for FTB's in January 2023. 😅

JCN12

House prices increase by 0-5%

Evolution rather than revolution.

Villa05

House prices increase by 5-10%

Increase 5 - 10%

Election year, big push to get ftbs over the line

Ecb rates will start falling (may not be passed on)

Programs to offset Ecb increases in 2023 will remain in place and grow.

EU recession while US trundles along (good for Ireland Inc)

Rents to increase as ftb in 2023 hit 36k, vast majority from existing stock rather than new builds. Many of these purchases may well be from exiting landlords trapped by rent pressure zones unable to pass on increased costs

Markets to watch

Mid west, increased salaries from diversified high growth companies at various stages of expansion, many recession proofed

Risks

USA hard landing (30% roughly) as stock market is overvalued and dependent on "magnificent 7"

Continued layoffs in said companies

DubCount

House prices increase by 0-5%

I dont see any big movement without some kind of shock. Interest rate increases are coming to an end, no major supply coming online, no major change in demand. Nothing to suggest big increases or decreases.

RichardAnd

House prices increase by 0-5%

I'm going to say a small, steady increase. I predict regional variation, with some decreases in places where there was a major price inflation in recent years (i.e., Dublin).

drogon.

House prices decrease by 0-5%

My prediction is prices will fall outside Dublin. Within Dublin, we may see prices getting stable without any marginal rise or drop, since rents are still good any good value will be snapped up by investors.

byrne249

House prices increase by 0-5%

House prices increase by 0-5%

There is no 'NO Change' option this year I note. I have a feeling they will loosen lending to 2nd time buyers by increasing limit to 4x, but not convinced interest rates will come down so a little more unsure this year, but basically predict no major change

ballyharpat

House prices increase by 0-5%

I reckon up by 0-5%, interest rates will be lowered, there will be more money in the economy from an increase in the minimum wage, driving up the price of everything, so even a 5% rise is really only keeping with the price of everything else.

Personally, I'd like to see a drop of 10%, there is nothing out there at the moment, some of the smaller, more affordable towns have risen by 10-15% last year, rent in those areas has risen by even more than that.

More large companies seem to be expanding to smaller areas, in Kerry, Tralee, Killorglin/Milltown, seem to be getting investments. Obviously these people will create an increased demand for housing.

rob316

House prices increase by 5-10%

5-10%

Why? Simple, the demand is still there and the supply isn't.

Record levels of immigration will continue to keep pressure on supply.

GalwayGaillimh

House prices increase by 10-15%

15 - 20%

its a bit like Bitcoin the property market its going only up until supply gets on par with demand, rates will keep going down from here on in due to Germany being in the doldrums.

J_1980

House prices increase by 10-15%

15-20%

2025:
booming Trump economy spilling over into Ireland while Germany/France are facing recession causing the return of low interest rates. Bit of the celtic tiger 2002-2005 situation (Germany was in bad shape back then too).

Add-in migration from France and non-EU countries + 5y political certainty and you have a toxic mix for higher house prices.

timmyntc

House prices increase by 0-5%

Almost time for 2025 prediction thread... make it happen