Kosovo-Serbia tensions. Where will it end? Is Russia involved?

AMKC

So there is more escalations between Kosovo and Serbia. Whats the solution?

Is Russia trying to instigate instability there between them?

It will end with Serbia going back to barracks after a bit of saber rattling. Nothing to worry about.

timmyntc

It will end with ethnic Serbs being removed from Kosovo. Serbia proper cant do a thing with the sword of NATO hanging over their head

clampedusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058316195/kosovo-serbia-tensions-where-will-it-end-is-russia-involved

I would expect so, yes. Russia will be fiddling around somewhere in the background trying to screw something up.

If only that crusade hadn't gone wrong, with the whole Constantinople incident.

Gatling

There's an element in Serbia that see themselves and Russia as one but they are ten years too late to think Russia Will be riding to the rescue if this kicks off ,but at the same time NATO don't want to be getting dragged into a shooting match

sandbelter

Know quite a few Serbs.

Very scarred nation, very difficult history and equally difficulty people (but so are Croats and Bosnians).

I first became aware of Kosovo during the 1980's, even the Yugoslav Communists struggled to contain the issues in Kosovo. It's very bitter. Basically the Serbs were one side of the class, one side were the "other Yugo's". Us neutrals sat in the middle, even then they were kept apart.

The problems were ongoing from the end of WW1, the brutal genocides during WW2 made things worse ...followed by a low intensity ethnic cleansing of Serbs throughout the 1980's. Belgrade essentially looked the other way during this period, most of the Serbs I know are actually refugees from this time, and the feelings of injustice have only metastasized over time. The NATO bombing, KLA organ harvesting, and further ethnic cleansings under NATO's watch have made the situation worse.

I'd go as far as saying NATO and the US should have fought the war they did for the reason they did in Bosnia...and they would have been right, but not Kosovo which is why it's still festering. I would also go as far as saying, the lies told to justify the bombings in Kosovo paved to road to Iraq.

So, I have no doubt this is a brutal war waiting to happen, and don't be surprised Albania joins in followed by Turkey then Greece and Bulgaria.

Yes, Russia is there, it always has been there.

But not as meddlesome as you'd think, it doesn't have to be. The Bulgarians, Greeks and Serbs all look to their Orthodox brethren for support.

All I'll say is ....It can't be allowed to escalate.

igCorcaigh

So NATO is still in control of Kosovo... why has that situation been allowed to persist for 30 years?

Why has there not been a conclusive peace settlement?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199060#Comment_121199060

Kosovo is effectively a European equivalent of the 38th parallel in Korea i.e. a stalemate of sorts between two deeply entrenched, hostile sides. Anyone familiar with the history of that conflict understands perfectly well that it's a geopolitical tinderbox.

I could be completely wrong about this, but I do not see a situation in which Kosovo permanently exists as an independent state. This isn't like Ukraine. Kosovo is a confected entity. I believe that conflict is, at some point, inevitable - likely fuelled by Russia - and it will tear Kosovo apart, with the north absorbed by Serbia and the rest absorbed by Albania (with Serbia trying to absorb the entire territory to begin with). The problem is that the conflict has the potential to draw many other neighbouring countries into it.

The current stalemate under the NATO umbrella is unsustainable in the long term.

TheValeyard

Serbia will do nothing but saber rattle or they should check their previous history with fcuk around and find out.

Russia will do nothing because she's so bogged down in Ukraine, she couldn't even help out Armenia.

Russia is fcked, CTSO is effectively dead, Serbia will rattle for domestic purposes and then wander back home to bed.

timmyntc

KFOR are the only thing keeping the "peace" in Kosovo. If left to the Kosovar authorities the place quickly devolves into mass violence along ethnic lines (Albanians vs Serbs).

The only solution is to split it along ethnic lines, with metohija going to Serbia and the Albanian remainder going to (you guessed it, Albania).

A very divided region which will not settle anytime soon, especially with an occupying force ever present which will never allow the tensions to settle. It merely emboldens one side to provoke the other, knowing that KFOR will protect them from retaliation.

tesla_newbie

I’m just back from Croatia and Montenegro, I heard no negative descriptions of Croatia by Montenegrins but it was fairly obvious that Croatians don’t like Montenegro, I guess they lump them in with Serbia ?

Gussie Scrotch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121196844#Comment_121196844

Good post. Thanks

Blarney_man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200356#Comment_121200356

This should explain

Siege of Dubrovnik 1991 - YouTube

Blarney_man

Also Croats are very good with Kosovars, because they had the same bully. Bully that went from Great Serbia, to shrunk Serbia in 20 years

sandbelter

The bully that left all the scars was the Ottomon Empire, then followed by the Nazi's. 

The Serbia's case they have a history not dissimilar to the Armenians, the genocides that still haunt the Serbs are the ethnic cleansings of Kosovo Serbs during the Ottoman-Serbian war of 1876-78, the 1901 ethnic cleansing and then WW2 and the actions of the SS-Skanderberg Division and the Croat Ustashe. It occupies the same place in Serb history as the famine does our own. As I said a damaged people .....I find Bosnian, Croat and Serbian all "difficult" so I’m not picking sides...as for the Croats....they are one of those people in Eastern Europe you never ask "what did your Grandad do in WW2?"

It's not the Russians you need solely to keep your eye on in Serbia, it the Chinese. There’s been a steady stream of Y 20 transports flying from China to Serbia since 2022, you can find them on flight radar 24. The Serbian army has been re-equipping with Chinese equipment.  Any attack on Serbia will only drive them further into China’s arms. Yes, If there’s conflict the Serbians will lose, but real winner will be China, it will gain a foothold in Europe. Not NATO, not the EU, for both it will be strategic disaster.

Russia’s role in Serbia also needs to be seen in the context of its overall strategy of splitting the destroying the EU. This is simply another theatre of conflict for it and another step to its ultimate goal.  There are some that see its role in Brexit in this context as well.

In Kosovo, Russia will achieve this via splitting the splitting of NATO, especially if either KFOR or Albania gets involved and it then escalates, the EU will split into “Russia is problem camp” of Poland, the Baltics and the Nordic countries and “Russia is the solution” brigade of Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria and potentially Slovakia, thereby paralysing the EU.   

Then, In Africa there is an open question of Wagner’s role in creating and facilitating refugee flows into Europe as another form of hybrid warfare, again with the long term aim of splitting the EU, this time on migration lines. This needs to been seen running in parallel to what’s going on in Kosovo…it’s all hybrid warfare.

In Leinster House the attitude on EU migrant crisis seems to be throw money at it….but we tried that with banking crisis and look where it got us.   No understanding of the links that join them and the strategy behind driving it, this maybe a reflection of our small defences forces and weak capability where we simply don’t have a reservoir of strategic expertise to inform a government with any form of clarity.   We’re all tactics and sound bites, no strategy.

So I reiterate…Conflict in Kosovo cannot be allowed to start.