The Hurt Locker: Ireland v South Africa. Saturday 23rd September. Stade DeFrance

A gimmick is a trick or device intended to attract attention or publicity. This perfectly describes the 'Bomb Squad' and I've no doubt Rassie Erasmus is absolutely loving the fact the moniker has stuck. In reality the team for tomorrow is more of a Hurt squad with the specific purpose of softening us up nicely for the rest of the tournament whilst winning if possible but not essentially.

The Hurt Locker

Opinion Piece - 'The Bomb Squad'.

I don't believe for a second that this is an entirely serious selection, I don't see it as a consistently viable tactic and I don't think South Africa would try this in a final. This is South Africa looking to beat us up for 80 minutes, make our time in the pool a tough one and win if things go their way, but ultimately they don't care who they play in the quarter final so aren't treating this game as seriously as Ireland. As three time winners, South Africa aren't thinking about quarter or semi finals - winning again is the only measure of success so if they have to beat France in a quarter or in a final it doesn't matter.

We're not in remotely the same boat and are still trying to pop our semi final cherry. In my opinion a win tomorrow is far more important for Ireland than it is for South Africa and I'm not sure they'll be at the same pitch as a result. I think the 7:1 bench is useful to get their first choice players off early and keep their diminished pack as fresh as possible. They regularly play 6:2 so it's not a massive variation, and they may feel that something specific like the breakdown is where to target us later in the game.

With Ireland's kicking game alone - I can't fully make sense of that SA team and the absence of Marx is a huge blow and weakens the bench. Whilst I thought Farrell handled the question about the bench split well there was a hint of him being dismissive about it as well and I don't think that was mind games, he looked bemused. As I said, I'm not entirely sure Rassie is being entirely serious, but no doubt he is loving the intrigue and attention.

Kicking

If tomorrow wasn't to be about the kicking battle, going 7:1 ensures that it will be. Ireland are quite likely the best kicking team in the World (if they aren't France are). Having no Pollard or the option of LeRoux leaves them exposed as the starting 15 stands, let alone if they have any injuries or serious fatigue. Either South Africa are ultra confident they have our number at line out or for some reason they don't think we're going to kick all day. I think we're well covered at lineout with our starting 15 and if we're concerned we can bring Baird on for VDF (POM Shifts to OS) to have an additional jumper.

With Murray, Crowley and Henshaw coming off the bench (all excellent kickers) it's the facet of the game which could considerably impact the result. Teams have gotten badly stung kicking to that South African back three but I back our defence and I think we'd be happy enough if our tackle count on their back three in particular was in decent numbers going in at half time.

Defence

Whatever about the coaches - the players from both teams during the week have primarily been talking about their oppositions defence. Both Ireland and SA are very hard working, honest and organised in defence but there are differences and the key one benefits Ireland. South Africa have better line speed but are not as organised and are vulnerable to the types of skip and inside passes that Ireland excel at. Pretty much the entire Ireland backline have a good range of kicks (Hansen is even kicking cross fields) so I think we can keep the Springboks honest on our ball. Sexton will be threading a fine line playing flat enough to exploit the gaps but not so flat that he's vulnerable to losing or consistently losing heavy collisions.

Our defence might be just that little bit more cautious but I think we form better lines and maintain better cohesion as the line drifts which means whilst we're soaking a little more of the tackle we rarely offer up gaps and our tackle effectiveness seems quite good so we rarely notably have poorer gainline success than opposition teams. Having one or two shooters (in the likes of VDF and Ringrose) is offset by us generally accommodating those rushes as part of the structure. Typically line breaks and higher defenders beaten numbers happen against us when we're scrambling from a turnover, we rarely tend to cough up line breaks in or around mid field so we often look very comfortable playing without the ball.

Packs

Really is a big day for the forwards tomorrow. What does a good day look like? Parity in the set piece, a lower penalty count, good consistent ruck speed on attacking ball, consistently slower opposition ruck speed. A really good day we have notably higher turnovers and any dominance in the set piece, particularly if maintained for the most part would put us in very good condition for the rest of the tournament. James Ryan is the key player for me tomorrow, we have to have a clean breakdown game.

Outcome?

I don't know. I want to say 'like the France game from the six nations' but I'm not sure it will be. What South Africa are doing isn't completely unorthodox but it is unorthodox. We've all talked about teams holding things back before a World Cup but this would be a whopper of an example if it defined the tournament.

I just don't think it will. I think it's a gimmick, it's very Rassie and all the right commentators are taking the bait. Ireland don't seem to be and I think we'll play our game and if the 7:1 creates opportunities to exploit we'll take them.

Ireland by 8, I think Ireland have more to play for, I think South Africa are taking slight liberties with the bench.

If SA are unlucky that score could be worse but I'd worry about the physical toll on Ireland one way or another. It will be interesting to see how the bench is deployed and if SA are chasing the game if they'll empty the bench the same way or drip players in. Regardless of score - it will be a tough 80 minute game.

Alternate Reality

For about an hour last night the match thread was "Tom Clancy's: Jack Crowley". Rassie was looking to actually detonate a bombs at all the major clubs where he had players stationed and Crowley was only brought into the Ireland squad as a counter intelligence measure. Chrome crashed and I lost the text and decided not to re-write it because it was a bit shite tbh.

flatface

Good post! Looking forward to a cracking game of rugby, let’s hope we bring our A game, win and do NOT peak. Not much to ask for really!!!

All_in_Flynn

Nervous excitement like many are feeling I suspect. I genuinely feel that if we are at the level we were in the 6 nations then we beat them going away. I think they are a really good side mind but I suspect we are not suited to them.

Easy to forget, they really targeted that November game and it was a game where a lot of our frontliners had barely featured in the season to that point and we still won. There were numerous players in preseason mode still.

Keep our discipline and I think we win.

Cookiemunster

Great tactical analysis there.

Very serious and unVenjur like though.

For most of the post I was wondering who had hacked Venjurs account and was worried for his safety. Thankfully the last paragraph quelled my fears 😜

Gwan Ireland!!!

Neil3030

Great write-up, Venjur.

I tend to agree with Jackman that the pressure is more on us than them. We are at full strength bar maybe Sheehan starting, while they have a number of notable absences in Am, Pollard, De Jager, Koch and Marx.

A loss for us is not the end of the tournament, but you would wonder how we could then come back and beat a surely stronger Springbok side in a final?

That said, I think we'll have enough to win. This team has risen to high pressure situations a number of times, and I believe they can do the same tomorrow. We have the speed and organisation to neutralise their power, and we have the weapons in several dimensions to score tries.

Also, if the Boks persist with the 7-1 (and I am still waiting for news of a late withdrawal, and them returning to 6-2), far too many things can go wrong for them. If injuries force a forward into their backs we are probably the best equipped team on earth to really hurt them. Just picture Keenan going up for hoist after hoist against Kwagga Smith's wing.... Or Ringrose skipping around Fourie in the 13 channel.....

That potential upside scenario is an Irish win by 20+ points. Or it could be closer to the 5-10 point range.

Either way though, the final would be a whole different bag of hammers.

irishgeo

I'm curious as I havent seen it anywhere. How would a draw affect the group and who would it suit best with the remaining games?

I think SA are going to make such an effort to physically beat us up that they're going to overdo it, give away penalties and cards.

I know everyone fears injury carnage for us with such intensity, hopefully it'll only be exhausted bodies rather than broken ones.

Ireland 22 South Africa 16

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121145647#Comment_121145647

A draw would put SA through more or less once they can still beat Tonga in the last game. Which is a 95% + certainty.

A draw leaves us still needing to beat Scotland. And Scotland needing to beat us.

kuang1

Good work Venjur. Although tend to agree with @Cookiemunster, quite unvenjuresque!

I think even that betrays the magnitude of this face off.

Not a do or die scenario sure, but 2 of the biggest heavyweights going at it full on makes us normal Joes quieten and hold our breath a bit in the lead up.

But agree with the prediction, Ireland to win. Rassie to use the loss to galvanise his troops and YouTube compilation videos to emerge of how the officials are anti SA.

And if SA get to the final he'll have the media dancing away to whatever tune he chooses. (dreading that with every fibre of my being)

swiwi_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121145645#Comment_121145645

I disagree. I think the pressure is more on Ireland. Why? Because like Venjur says, unless it’s a thrashing I think SA will shrug off a defeat. On other hand if Ireland lose those doubts will kick in. Especially as it could mean Scotland is a must win.

For that reason I think Ireland will win as they will be more focussed.

Bogwoppit

I don’t see a loss being a big blow to the confidence of this squad. Everyone knows what a big challenge it will be to beat this SA team and as good as we are we’re not unbeatable.

Look back the the first test in NZ, the last time we lost a match, for an indication of how these guys can react to a loss and come back stronger.

If we lose this match then I fear for the very existence of Scottish rugby after the final pool match

fitz

I think we'll win by 10 or more, particularly if SA pick up cards, which I think they will. Can see a red card in this game for them given how they'll approach rush defense and trying to physically dominate. If that happens we'll punish them.

As for the ridiculous "bomb squad" thing...that can get in the sea along with "the killer bees", anyone remember that one? I don't think they'll end up with a 7-1 split, but if they do, I really think it won't help them at all.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121145751#Comment_121145751

“The kamikaze kids” was another in a similar vein, albeit that one wasn’t for the the, eh, “finishers”…

Game day, tho!! It’s felt like an age waiting for this one.

ctrl-alt-delete

Great write up, enjoyed that.

stephen_n

Excellent write up Venjur. Some very good analysis. Think the scoreline will be closer than you predict as SA will make points hard to come by. It will be very attritional and injuries more than the result concern me. I think we will cause problems for SA and really test that blitz though.

I wish the kick off was earlier, waiting around all day just makes the tension worse.

Shehal

Ill be honest for most of this week ive thought this was mind games from Rassie and co and that they would chance one of their forwards for Pollard/Le Roux before kick off, they might still do who know's, but the more I read into this the more I agree with you're analysis that this is a perfect opportunity to try out the 7/1 split without the risk of being eliminated if it blow's up in their face. Regardless of the result I do believe if Ireland & SA meet again in the competition SA wouldnt do it, they would revert back to a 6/2 split.

In regards to the game it's self interestingly enough the two packs are identical when it comes to size, both on average 191 cm's and 112 kg, and while I still think it will be a very physical game I do think there's a decent chance Ireland can at least hold their own at least for spells in the game.

I do think overall there is a fear that I have that the 7/1 split could lead to SA having their England 2019 moment against us in which they expose a massive weakness in our armour that other teams in future might look to exploit but tbh it's mainly a fear not backed up by much evidence so I wouldn't read much into it if I was you.

When I take the emotion out and look at the fact's this feels like a game where it will only be a score from 1-10 for the winner but I do think there is far more potential for thing's to go wrong for SA so think the smart money is backing Ireland but I'm not totally confident in that prediction ngl!

Shehal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121145704#Comment_121145704

I disagree there as at the end of the day this is a game that can go either way, the handicap is literally 1 point it couldn't be any tighter, it will largely come down to how the game goes on the field rather than simply the final score. If its a tight game that could have gone either way but SA just edged by a penalty then I dont think it will bother Ireland too much confidence wise.

MeisterG

it is very plausible that the SA coaches don’t mind being beaten at group stages a la 2019 but a heavy defeat (and in some ways the lesser jeopardy) in facing France means that ironically an Irish victory tonight makes us nonplussed about Scotland which could then see SA removed and probably improves our overall chances in the tournament. Now that would be a Rassie rant

phog

Unless we go into our shell for this game or pick up cards I see nothing but a comprehensive Irish win, the final score might not reflect it because of late scores from SA but it will be a win that never really n doubt

swiwi_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121145976#Comment_121145976

I agree. Unless SA score more points than Ireland I predict an Irish victory.

TheRona

What's the biggest margin Ireland has been behind by on their current winning run?

I think the big test is how they come back if they find themselves a couple of scores behind.

Have they even come from more than a score behind?

Pete_Cavan

If Libbok is having a bad day from the tee (not unlikely), presumably FdK would take over the place kicking duties. Reinach as the only back on the bench might not even get used at SH if they want to keep FdK for kicking. If they go with the 7/1 bench, it could lose them the game and then there would be huge question marks over Rassie's judgement for the rest of the tournament.

Musicrules

This is our ticket to the final tonight. I fear South Africa more than New Zealand. Win tonight and then get two weeks till Scotland. Recover the bodies and ramp it up again for New Zealand. We're better than South Africa, we can match them physically, let's put them back in their boks.

Clegg

This is the most I've ever looked forward to an Irish World Cup game. Generally I've a pit of fread in my stomach.

I don't trust this new feeling.

PTH2009

Like Christmas morning, can't wait for the game

Looking over the table and there's a very cruel way that we could win tonight but still go out if we lose to Scotland

swiwi_

Would there be any merit in bringing in an Ulster quota? Positive discrimination for underrepresented minorities and all that

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146403#Comment_121146403

Nah. Enough Sa's at Munster.

GiftofGab

Planned to head into town this evening for an great day out and watch the game there. Now the girlfriend is not talking to me over some absolute nonsense. Although i won't let it ruin this day.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonna go with SA by 10 points

Now load me with thanks

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146478#Comment_121146478

If your username is accurate, you'll have her talked around before Rassie starts warming up the disco lights...

Jacovs

Good luck to both teams.

I wont be on the thread during the game, having people over, having a braai, lots of brandy and coke then watching the game.

May the best team win, as long as its SA.

fitz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146061#Comment_121146061

Not sure without going through match reports, but the other way of looking at it is to ask when was the last time a team managed to get ahead of Ireland enough to stop us coming back for the win?

I don't think SA will find it easy to score tries against our defence, and I don't think penalties are gonna get it done for them in terms of getting out of reach.

kuang1

Good luck Jacov. Nice vibe here in Paris. Have met and spoken to a few Saffas and vibes are very good between everyone. Should be a classic and nothing but well wishes all round.

Gotta love this game. Enjoy the Braai and the Brandy!

Man Vs ManUre

Jeremy Renner was able to disconnect bombs in Iraq but he was no match for the snow plough. And Ireland will be no match for South Africa. Hear me now and remember this foretelling.

TheRona

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146791#Comment_121146791

I can only think of two examples of Ireland falling more than a score behind, and they lost both times. NZ first test last year, and France in the 6N last year.

It is interesting, how this team might react to scoreboard pressure.

Shehal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146791#Comment_121146791

Ireland were behind in 4 of the 5 games in this years 6N anyway before coming back to win in all of them!

fitz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146862#Comment_121146862

I just don't think SA will be able to build that scoreboard pressure.

That France game was nearly 18 months ago, and the NZ game was one I feel we lost more than they won. We were inaccurate and it cost us. We'll have to be accurate tonight, for sure, but if we play our game and keep errors to a minimum, I don't think SA will score much.

john9876

Has this game lost some of it's criticality with Dupont likely to miss the quarter final?

gameoverdude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147135#Comment_121147135

No way it has!

PTH2009

Why are games always so late over there ?

Be uproar if a match started at 9pm over here

MadYaker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147186#Comment_121147186

They eat dinner late I guess. I think it’s a grand time for a match.

thefa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147135#Comment_121147135

Think it’s a massive game psychologically and momentum wise. Same for the Saffers. Need to keep delivering on the big days.

irishgeo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147186#Comment_121147186

TV ratings I imagine.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147135#Comment_121147135

Dupont had surgery and is expected back for the quarter final.

Mr Disco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147368#Comment_121147368

He’s not expected or unexpected. It’s all tbc

fitz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147368#Comment_121147368

Thought they hadn't said when he was expected back...I think they're being optimistic, but I can't see him being ready for the QF, if at all...

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147373#Comment_121147373

The prognosis is that he should be cleared to play by the quarter final. Obviously he might not make it but it’s expected that he will after the surgery.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147381#Comment_121147381

The reports are that he has had surgery and the surgeon believes he could be available for the QF.

fitz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147404#Comment_121147404

Where'd you hear that, all I'd seen was they weren't saying when he'd be available:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/sep/23/france-antoine-dupont-rugby-world-cup-surgery

Widdensushi

Expected, should, could,stop digging...

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147135#Comment_121147135

I'd agree, winning today isn't as important as France without Dupont are not much more formidable than the All blacks and beating SA today would probably mean it would be harder to beat them later in the tournament.

The only real advantage to winning today is momentum and taking the pressure off a Scotland result.

It's certainly not a must win game. Having the ABs and Boks knock the stuffing out of one another in the quarters might be no bad thing.