Nagorno-Karabakh

Rawr

This came up in the Russia thread, and I started this thread since this topic has a whole other set of things to think about beyond it’s possible relation to Russia’s attempt to take over Ukraine.

For those new to this topic, Nagorno-Karabakh has been a typical example of a frozen post-Soviet conflict. The area is awash with centuries worth of ethnic tension between the Armenians and the Azeri, who both claim the mountains of Karabakh as their home, but could never learn to share them. Once Soviet rule ended, both sides continued to be at each others necks, resulting in decades of war, and a defacto break-away Armenian republic in Karabakh on territory recognised to be part of Azerbaijan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh?wprov=sfti1

After the last war between them in 2020, Russian peace keepers have been in place in an apparent attempt to dissuad an Azeri takeover following the gains they had made.

News today seems to suggest that Azerbaijan are about to take advantage Russia’s current weakness due to Ukraine in order to finish what they had started in 2020, and invade what is left of the Karabakh republic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975.amp

Reports currently that Azerbaijan are demanding a surrender of the Karabakh army and an a disbandment of the defacto state. Effectively wanting to fully reobsorb the area into Azerbaijan proper.

The next few days may be faithful on several levels:

• The Russian resolve to maintain their garrisons in Karabakh will be tested, and if they fail there may be wider repercussions in other similar situations involving Russia
• 
  
• If Azerbaijan re-established control of this area, we may witness a wave of truly horrific ethnic cleansing. Neither side has been good at sharing Karabakh, and the victor (regardless of side) usually went for the civilians in short order.
• 
  
• And what will this mean for Turkey and their designs on the area?

• What now becomes of Armenia, who now seem to be rejecting Russia in favor of the West?

Loads to wonder about…

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058314516/nagorno-karabakh

Is it clear yet how far the Azerbaijanis have advanced? From what I understand the Armenians were pretty thoroughly defeated in the last war so it isn't really likely they can stop Azerbaijan by themselves.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131094#Comment_121131094

Been following via the same UA live maps ive used for Ukraine

https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2023/19-september-reports-of-advance-of-azerbaijani-armed-forces

The Azeri appear to made gains into the north so far.

But it’s Stefanakert that’s key. If Baku control there, its all over.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131105#Comment_121131105

Armenia is in such a poor position geopolitically. They are technically allied with Russia but Putin clearly doesn't like their president and I think the Armenians would like leave his camp if they could.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131105#Comment_121131105

Thanks also. I didn't realise there was a live map.

Odhinn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058314516/nagorno-karabakh

I'm afraid that ethnic cleansing you describe will indeed occur.

Gatling

This has been brewing for a while , the Armenian military is in no fit state to stop a recently modernised Azerbaijan military, even worse Russia is physically not in a great place to offer any real muscle ,the Turks will be enjoying this they have helped the Azerbaijanis with artillery and drones (sounds familiar) the question will be will this spill over and bring even more instability to the region

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131161#Comment_121131161

It might have the opposite effect ultimately as long as Azerbaijan don't cross Armenia's international border. The loss of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh would remove a frozen conflict and remove a lot of Russia's leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan. Unfortunately I do expect it'll be a horrific outcome for the Armenians living in the region and I suspect the Azerbaijanis will cross Armenia's border to create a land bridge to their exclave.

Nigel Fairservice

The Azeris have oil money which they have ploughed into their military. I've been to Azerbaijan and Armenia. Baku was fancy enough. There was raw sewerage running down the street in the city (Alaverdi) I went to in Armenia. I fear they will be steamrolled. It will be interesting geopolitically with both countries sandwiched between Russia and Turkey/Iran.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131174#Comment_121131174

The landbridge to their western exclave is something I fear they might try for. If they are wise they’ll stop with Karabakh, but you never know.

PopePalpatine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131229#Comment_121131229

I wouldn't put much hope in a regime that built this.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131220#Comment_121131220

Both went several years without investing much in defence budgets , Armenian was spending less than 300 million per year, until last year when they spent 700 million, Azerbaijanis have spent close to 7 billion over the last 3 years alone, realistically the biggest players in the region now are the Turks and Iranians ,both would be more than happy to sell either side hundreds of millions in weapons, while both hating each other,

Interesting times ahead

Montage of Feck

Another sad day for the admirable Armenian people who have been subjugated for centuries by various empires from the Romans to the Russians yet maintain their distinct identity. Bad form on the west that they allow the continuation of the tyranny that bore one of the worst genocides in history.

timmyntc

Turkey and Azerbaijan both want Armenia to be wiped off the map.

The Turks still deny the Armenian genocide, and are funneling arms to the Azeris, as are Israel but for different reasons. Israel are allied with Azerbaijan as a proxy against Iran. NW Iran has some Azerbaijani separatists who are causing havoc every now and then.

Armenia look set to lose out here though, they don't have the money or resources to protect themselves, and nobody else really cares enough to step in and protect them. Best case for Armenia is if Iran escalate against Azerbaijan to deny them the land corridor between their western enclave.

Rawr

Shelling reported in Stepanakert this morning:

https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2023/20-september-shelling-and-smoke-in-khankedistepanakert-this

I get the sense that Azerbijan might be trying to get Karabakh to surrender before trying to send in troops. Even with the Karabakh forces in a hopeless state, an urban fight is something the Azeris likely don't want in Stepanakert.

Reports also of refugees fleeing the Azeri advance. But tragically...where can they go?

donaghs

The Armenia that exists today is tiny in comparison with historic Armenia. Most Armenians used to live in what is now eastern Turkey. Some fled the 1915 genocide, but most were murdered or died on forced marches into the desert.

Even if NKB is legally part of Azerbeijan, that's no excuse to allow another round of ethnic cleansing.

Its shameful that governments arent doing anything.

An Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan is on the point of starvation (economist.com)

Hande hoche!

Seems like a ceasefire is agreed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66863702

PopePalpatine

Aliyev gets his Sudetenland.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132968#Comment_121132968

On condition of complete disarmement. Essentially surrender.

Appears the Azeris want to meet Karabakh later today to talk of "reintergration". You'd wonder if they can manage to do this peacefully without expelling the Karabakh Armenians or doing anything to make their lives worse. I'm no fan of Ethno-States, and it's very much on Azerbajan to show everyone if they can be mature enough to have a multi-ethnic population here.

I fear that they are not.

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133406#Comment_121133406

My concern would be future desire by the Azeris on a land bridge to their enclave, as others have touched on. They seemingly achieved their goal this time with about twenty four hours of fighting. The last major flare up was 2020. Half a decade down the line when attention has gone elsewhere, will they try for that?

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133457#Comment_121133457

That danger is quite real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Azerbaijan_%28political_concept%29?wprov=sfti1

As it stands, more extreme elements of Azeri politics (and there might be a good few of them) claim all of modern Armenia as rightfully Azerbaijan. Much of traditionally Armenian lands lie in Eastern Turkey, and what currently exists as Armenia is little more than a tiny slip of land that they were forced over onto, which did once have a significant Azeri population.

Baku are likely getting away with a conquest of Karabakh, probably partly due to those lands being Azerbaijan by international law. But if they seek to expand their claim…what would happen next? Could this danger push Armenia further into the western camp, since the Russians seem pretty useless to them now?

riffmongous

The 'West' won't do much to help Armenia anyway, considering Turkey's involvement and the geographic situation.

Realistically Armenia's only hope imo is Iran,politically and militarily. And that's not something to look forward to for them

Polar101

I'm not familiar with Iran's role in this conflict at all, but they have a huge Azeri population - wouldn't Iran be more likely to support Azerbaijan rather than a Christian Armenia?

Hande hoche!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121136750#Comment_121136750

Part of it is to do with various territorial disputes in the past. Also there are considerable links, particularly at the military level, between Israel and Azerbaijan. The old proverb the enemy of my enemy...

riffmongous

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121136750#Comment_121136750

It's the opposite, because of their Azeri population they don't want a strong Azerbaijan going around claiming territory.

And they have strong imperial links to the area themselves, they were the previous rulers of the region before Russia, and would probably still like to see themselves as a dominant force rather than give up influence to Turkey

PopePalpatine

Looks like Aliyev's taking lessons from the orcs.

https://twitter.com/CSI_humanrights/status/1704860465220722998

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140403#Comment_121140403

They committed war crimes last time around, beheadings and rapes and other nasty stuff was well documented on social media

Rawr

https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2023/23-september-armenian-media-claims-azerbaijani-army-is-approaching

Azerbaijan Army apparently entering Stepanakert now, based on Armenian media. Without any international oversight (and lets be frank, the local Russian troops don’t count) there’s nothing much to restrain the Azeri troops once they take over. Hopefully they’ll try to show some tact and not brutalise the local population.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140403#Comment_121140403

It seems Azerbaijan are the ‘good guys’ in this conflict so minor details like human rights abuses can be conveniently ignored by the media.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/stronger-us-azerbaijan-ties-can-help-counter-russia-and-iran/

PopePalpatine

The 120,000 Artsakh Armenians are set to flee to Armenia.

On one hand, I'm sort of relieved that threats of Azeri rape & death squads running rampant haven't come to pass, but on the other hand, 120,000 people have been made homeless.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152576#Comment_121152576

A bit premature to make those statements, though I do also hope they don't come to pass.

That 120k people would flee their homes and livelihoods to escape rather than live under Azeri rule does speak volumes however.

Baku will not be satisfied with just Karabakh - they know Armenia are weak and nobody in the international community really cares, so they will only be emboldened by the lack of response. Crimea all over again

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152643#Comment_121152643

Indeed. There is a distrubling little information coming out of Karabakh. Tied with perhaps only Transnistria & the breakaway regions in Georgia, this had been the most lingering post-Soviet conflicts, and despite its apparent end the media cycle's attention to it has been very muted.

An unrecognised Karabakh Armenian republic was essentially dissolved this week, yet that has been barely reported upon at all.

The Armenians choose poorly with their military protector & ally, and have been punished for picking the wrong side in this New Cold War. But that is no excuse for seeing innocent civilians & children suffer for something they've simply been born into. UN Observers (at the very least) should be based in Karabakh. Azerbaijan have legal claim to the area, but they do not have form for treating the Armenians as equals.

I remember watching Baku host the Eurovision some years ago. They over-hyped it as "the best ever" to a gaudy degree, but the message seemed to be that they wanted to be regarded as a peer within a Greater Europe (pushing that border to it's greatest extreem). If they really meant that, then they will need to show the world that they can embrace religious and ethnic diversity within their borders and not continue the cycle of pushing out anyone different...which never ends well.

Rawr

Sure enough as Pope mentioned in an earlier post:

https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-calls-un-mission-monitor-rights-nagorno-karabakh-2023-09-24/

The Armenians are choosing to leave. With Winter setting in soon, this could become very grim.

nacho libre

You would begin to wonder if the Armenian prime minister can survive this? Putin once again showing he is the master strategist by being unable to stop this from happening. The fallout from this could embolden others, particularly the opposition in Chechnya, to have another go.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153249#Comment_121153249

Much is talked about "sports washing" with the OPEC countries trying to buy their way into the good graces of the Western world through acquisitions; but IIRC Azerbaijan has had its own dalliance in that very same tactic. Look everyone, it's just another country like the rest of us who loves Sport / Eurovision.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153434#Comment_121153434

Leadership within Armenia proper tend to get the brunt of rage for when thing like this happen. The same happened when Azerbaijan scored victory in the 2020 War. I might argue that it's somewhat unfair of the Armenian public to blame their own government for this. What can they realistically do, beyond actually going to war with Baku over the territory? A War which they know well they would lose.

Armenia had the edge back in 1990. Their troops had much better training in the Red Army, compared to the Azeri Soviet troops who were relegated to Cannon Fodder status. When the first first Karabakh War happened, the Azeri were in such a bad state that an Armenian advance on Baku wasn't beyond possibility. 30+ Years and the disintergration of Russia has robbed Armenia of the edge they once held. They face NATO-grade armed forces on both sides of them, while they have just the remnants of their Soviet equipment to defend themselves with.

Russia is finished in this part of the world, and the next challenge will be to temper Turkey in their desire to roll over what's left of Armenia in concert with Azerbaijan, to create a contiguous pan-Turkic area.

Gatling

Not a great look for the international community,120,000 fleeing or face Genocide again and barely a peep out of anyone,

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1706258348109144230?s=20

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121155999#Comment_121155999

Armenia doesn't have a very handsome president and sexy first lady.

It's their own fault they should vote for better looking politicians if they want to get more international support.

Gatling

..

Kermit.de.frog

This is an unfortunate example of where another conflict can have serious implications elsewhere. If the Russians weren't bogged down in Ukraine no way would Azerbaijan have had the resolve to do this.

I don't think Russia have the capacity to intervene here and no one else is going to have the will either.

Sultan of Bling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156071#Comment_121156071

At least we know Ireland will be protected thanks to our handsome president

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156071#Comment_121156071

I think that was funnier in your head maybe.

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156121#Comment_121156121

Perhaps, but its just interesting how little attention (relatively speaking) this has gotten whereas the Ukraine situation people couldn't wait to get their Ukranian flags on there social media profiles and have Russia banned from everything instantly.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156203#Comment_121156203

There's a couple of things to say in response to this.

The media in democracies and the general public only have so much bandwidth for foreign affairs/news. An awful lot of people pay very little attention to what is going on outside their own country unless it is something massive (like Russia's invasion of Ukraine - it is still the larger and more important event).

I don't like that social media/hashtag or issue of the hour type culture you are sneering at but think in fairness Ukraine and what is happening there is always going to be more relavant to us. Assuming here you don't live somewhere else nearer to or more affected by Armenia/Azerbaijan, or are not a disembodied global-citizen than finds the ability + time to emote and care equally about every problem and tragedy in the world.

Finally on the last (it seems nobody gives a f-ck), what do you want to see done here? What do you expect of that old chestnut that comes in for a lot of stick - the "international community" or what exactly would you like to see your country (if not Irish) or Ireland put on the line to affect what is happening? edit: (Unfortunately) I don't think words online, or the general public opinion in Europe, or criticism from politcians here is going to have that much influence on Azerbaijan. It's all very depressing.

phelixoflaherty

https://youtu.be/hd-6WweqD0Y?si=HN_qfxa2EujtaC6v

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156071#Comment_121156071

Thanks.

pjohnson

I think its the fact Armenia has had very close ties to Russia that people arent as upset.

Russian allies arent going to be winning any sympathy contests.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157932#Comment_121157932

Alas, this is probably part of it. Tied with how very "contained" this conflict is by the very nature of it being within the mountains of Karabakh. It's a very "local" war, despite it being something that should concern anyone with any regard for human rights.

Couple this with the fact Azerbaijan are reclaiming land that technically & legally should be under Baku's control. But the horrid thing about all of this, is despite the legality of borders & juristiction, the conflict for Nagorno Karabakh is a perfect example of how crap people can be to each other. There were no heroes in this conflict, only victims. When the Armenians won large swathes of Karabakh back in the 90's they drove the Azeri living there from their homes and displaced them. In turn the Azeri do the same to the Armenians when they retake areas, and the grim cycle begins yet again. Two peoples who probably would have plenty in common if they weren't so blinkered by mutual hatred and focus on how race & religion seperate them.

You'd wish people would just cop on when it comes to things like this.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157932#Comment_121157932

I also reckon the fact this has an ethnic aspect makes the whole thing messier to report than "Russia invades sovereign nation, behaves like Hollywood portrays it". Leaving aside the tankies and Mick Wallace types trying to "well, actually" about russian speakers, Ukraine is a much, much simpler Good Guy, Bad Guy story than yet another ethnic clusterfúck that only ends in massacres. I don't blame the mainstream media for ignoring this conflict: where do you begin?

nacho libre

Talk about the cat that got the cream when the Azeri president met Erdoğan yesterday. Lavrov is becoming the new comical Ali,between his pronouncements about good will gestures and the latest gem that Russia worked to secured a peace deal on this issue. When every one knows Russia was too weak to intervene. I bet he will be speaking about another good will gesture sometime next year!

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158147#Comment_121158147

Yea, the whole "Russia backed deal" nonsense raised my eyebrow a bit there last week.

I'm thinking Russia agreed to let their troops be used as go-betweens for the Azeri army's collection of Karabakh arms, in return for a graceful withdrawal of their "peace keeping" force. The alternative might have had the Russians captured and expelled by force. Which would have underlined Russian weakness even more.