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UL Research Project: Solar PV Modelling
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11-05-2023 6:36pm#1
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Hi all,
I'm a PhD researcher in the University of Limerick looking at statistical modelling as applied to renewable energies, in particular solar generation. Some of our goals include building a map of expected energy production and forecasting values from solar panels at a near real-time level that can be provided to the public to better optimise their electricity usage and evaluate the cost benefit analysis of installing solar.
Most of the work in this space so far has been based on longer term totals or using theoretical weather maps which might not always line up with actual production, so, with your help(!) we're hoping to acquire historical production from households spread around the country and develop preliminary statistical models.
This post is to just first inquire if people on this forum would be interested in sharing their solar data, say for a year period, suitably anonymised in terms of location by the provider specifying their small area code as opposed to explicit GPS coordinates - I'll later set up consent forms/a facility to send/upload data and related questions.
(The small areas are used as part of the census statistics and consist of areas of approx. 100 houses. You can find the code for your small area in this link by entering EirCode:
In return I can share analysis around any patterns/possible issues with your panels, updated national solar maps, explicit estimates based on orientation, as well as a tool to view forecasted production for your homes and preliminary models you can use. I think this would be of interest in particular.
If you would be interested in taking part in this project please send me a PM on here or to my email (Eamonn.Organ@ul.ie) and I can follow up in the near future with more details. We will gather data such that your email is not linked to your user profile and so your anonymity is assured.
Some more details on the data (based on one panel) and our approaches are shared here (can't post links yet so remove spaces and brackets )
Also feel free to fire away with any questions, I see from reading through this forum you've already done a lot of really good analysis, I might add a separate post later for more visibility but thought Id get some feedback here. Also just to add some colour to the post, here's a chart on one household we got.
Post edited by Jonathan on1 -
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Hi All,
Firstly thanks for everyone who got back to me, I'll get to messaging you individually soon enough, It'll take a bit of time to first just set up a place to easily share and a framework to read it all into the one place but I'll be in touch once I'm ready to collect things/send out surveys
That's a good question to be honest and ye probably a better idea where the value would lie. So for example in the previous dataset I collected here's 30 second increments vs hourly averages. Now I doubt there's a statistician in the world who could predict those 30 second values, hourly values we probably could get close, Met forecasts are generally on the hour, but interpolating (basically averaging to sub hourly) is a viable option, so I think my goal would be 15 minute or 30 minute forecasts.
Where I do think though some value in having fine scale data is I could try predict how volatile/spread out it will be (Variance or standard deviation in stats talk). For example I assume there's a difference in how one would go about best managing their power if it was consistently close to the hourly average vs it was fluctuating a lot. For example, take an hour out of the previous day (I added a made up energy consumption). Looking at hourly averages alone we would be at about 85% of our consumption, however 40% of the time we were in excess of that.
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