Is Berties PR machine really powerful enough to pull this off?

veryangryman

I see he now gets free reign on Newstalk and (lest we forget) has now podcasts on how he saved the North. Right place right time but anyhow.

Should i just accept that he plans to buy the Presidency via the national media to let us all forget what a <insert words not allowed on boards> he was and is.

Seth Brundle

My concern isn't that his PR machine might be quite strong but more that there is a possibilty that public can so easily be conned into thinking that vermin like Ahern should be allowed return to politics.

Fr Tod Umptious

Time is a great healer.

As someone who was very vexed at the time of the crisis in 2008 I really don't care much anymore, it's far enough in the past for me to be ambivalent about it.

And after 14 years of MD in office I really don't care who is president.

So people like me may not even vote and he could be elected via apthy.

kippy

Anyone running against him is going to make sure people are reminded of some of his quotes from back in the day. There are enough quotes from him that are in the public domain, but not necessarily remembered/known by everyone.

I don't necessarily have an issue with the financial crash during his tenure (which I am sure he will distance himself from) or the peace deal(which he is claiming credit for) but the ways in which he treated the public at the time in relation to naysayers and moreso that he thought it was acceptable not to have a Bank account etc etc.....this things won't be forgotten and I'd reckon we will see the alternative PR machine get these narratives back up and running.

Gregor Samsa

He won't win the Presidency. It's not like the old days where there was only 2 candidates and no-one cared. Last election had 6 candidates, one before had 7. While we won't have half the cast of Dragon's Den going next time, there'll be a large field of candidates, and it will be competitive, which means scrutiny.

In 2011, David Norris went from total shoo-in to dropping out and only getting 6.2% because of the letter he wrote seeking clemency for Ezra Nawi in 1997.

Augme

While certain media outlets will be happy to let Bertie swan around avoiding the tough questions his fellow presidential candidates certainly won't. If he does enter, his chances will be decimated after the first presidential debate.

trashcan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280236#Comment_120280236

With any luck ! I’d welcome him running, just to get the chance to vote against him, but I’d never underestimate the amount of gullibles who might vote for him.

DrivingMrDaisy

Will never listen to Newstalk again giving this creep a platform to spout his rubbish. Shame on them.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280208#Comment_120280208

Brian Lenihan SR was a shoe-in back in the early 90s until “on mature recollection” and Mary Robinson got in. But with the tripe that line up these days to become our president, I shudder at the thought of it. Micky D was the only acceptable candidate from the last lot who are now thankfully well forgotten- I’m not a Micky D fan btw, but it’s come down to the “least worst” and on that note, I wouldn’t quite rule out Bertie just yet.

Gusser09

Pat kenny is only short of kissing his hole on Newstalk. Disgraceful stuff. The man, like Haughey should have been before the courts and not some mickey mouse tribunal.

buried

As long as people keep calling this gadge by his first name, like they do every other politician that doesn't give two fiddlers f**ks about them, there is every chance they will get whatever they want. Because as long as you call them by their first names you are already giving them what they want, which is subservience. When it is them who should be subservient to you. But carry on addressing these shysters like you intimately know them, it works out so well for us, doesn't it?

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120281710#Comment_120281710

i don’t think I ever called Haughey “Charles” - but I still knew he was a shyster.

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120281733#Comment_120281733

Fair play to you, but plenty of people addressed him as "Charlie", just like plenty of people in the same timeline called Thatcher "Maggie". This is a PR tactic. RTE even made a dramatic docudrama about Haughey which was titled "Charlie".

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280208#Comment_120280208

What done for Norris also is that he pulled out of the race only to re-enter it. Showing that his judgement was questionable on that count as well as the decision to write the letter, the letter didn’t proffer support, it asked for clemency it was also written on parliamentary headed notepaper which is amazingly poor judgement.

so three examples of absolute dreadful decision making. Two examples are of borderline skullduggery. Never liked the cut of the man’s gib. Always keen for a photo op and a few minutes in front of a camera but I doubt he has the qualities, savvy or substance to do the job.

Bertie can win it… he is well regarded on the international stage, a quietly yet forcefully respected diplomat on the international stage… his achievements far outweigh his failures…

so I’d say the requirements for a PR machine might be overstated, the CV is quite padded with success. Like him or not, those be facts.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120281749#Comment_120281749

I think the “Bertie” brand has long dissipated- there’s close to 500,000 young voters out there now between the ages of 18 and maybe 25 or so to which “Bertie” means feic all to them or at most a distant memory from their childhood. They’ll certainly be given many a history lesson by the other candidates but really, does “walking around money” or backhanders or whatever else they decide to highlight really matter or resonate in 2023? Calling him by his first or second name will mean little to these people

If he doesn’t get their vote, it will be more down to him being a dianosaur or just some old man they care little about and more relevant and energetic candidates to choose from and if they do vote for him, it will likely because of the peace process or “he’s a legend”

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120281823#Comment_120281823

That's not my point though Oscar, my point is that you, as a citizen, should not address any politician by their first name. Haughey, Ahern, Varadkar, Martin, Ryan, any of them. The very minute you address them by their first name, then you immediately submit subservience. They have won. Then they know they have you. When it is them that actually need you. Just like Trump supporters addressed him by "Donald", he knows he has them, he knows they are subservient to him, his detractors always addressed him as "Trump", always "Trump". As long as people and the media that they consume keep addressing politicians by their first names, the people are on a long road to nothing, because you submit subservience to a public servant who should be working for you. If they have monumentally f**ked up that public service, like Ahern did, you should address them even less than their surname, let alone their first name.

John_Rambo

This is important.

There's a chance he may be judged on his peace process legacy which may perceived by some as unimportant & scoffed at but nonetheless considered less important than his personal financial arrangements.

It's something to consider.

Fianna Fáil's share of the vote has nearly halved since the crash in 2008. Prior to that there was only 2 general elections since the 1930's where they dipped below 40% and that was only just - 39.1% and 39.3%. In 2011 they got 17.5%, 24.3% in 2016 and 22.2% the last time around.

No ff'er is going to be the next President. Especially not one who was the architect of Ireland being among the most severely affected countries in the global crisis. People haven't forgotten.

Sleeper12

He would need another 10 years before he could win the presidency but OP is very correct, he did save the peace process. It's easy for people now to say it would have happened one way or another & yet almost every person involved in the peace process says it wouldn't have happened without him. Jasus he's still working on the north even today as we speak.

There is a reason history is written years after it happens. It's worth remembering that Michael Collins was a traitor in the vast majority's minds for over 50 years before history began to give him a fair shot. He was no hero in any history book when I was a child. History will be very kind to Bertie but not in time for him to win the presidency

lawrencesummers

Its now or never for Bertie.

He has made a big push to have some sort of cherrypicked personality back in the media in time for the anniversary of the GFA with the objective of seeing if he can carry that goodwill into the 2025 presidential ‘race’ and whats interesting is that Leo has all but endorsed him while MM must have given his approval to allow him back into FF.

The danger here is that presidents have been elected with as little as 600k votes in the recent past and thats an attainable target for him.

What will be interesting is the candidates that FFG allow to run against him from within their own party, he might have enough pull within the party to run un-opposed from FFG leaving a small pool of candidates from opposition political circles and whatever crawls out of the private sector woodwork.

kippy

Seriously, once other candidates get involved he is screwed. There's so much dirt on him in the public domain, just needs to be packaged up and communicated.

He's getting his pat on the head now but that will change.

As for calling him by his first name, nonsense.

HalloweenJack

There'd be a chance of redemption for him if he'd ever owned up to his responsibilty for his time as Taoiseach. But his public comments since show an unwillingness to acknowledge the reality of the situation. That, or he's genuinely deluded and has no idea. I don't know which quality I loathe more. From what I've seen, he's never accepted any criticism of his tenure. He's always responded with bluster and finger-pointing.

It was eleven years and he only wants people to focus on something he achieved in his first year. It doesn't say much about his accomplishments in the other ten years. His term amounted to an eighth of the state's existence at the time he scurried away. He played a key role in shaping Ireland as it moved into the 21st century. He should also be held responsible for the calibre of the cabinet he left in his wake who had to pick up the pieces. We were left with Cowen and the likes of Coughlan, O'Dea and O'Donoughue to lead a country not even a year into a Government cycle. Nobody voted for Cowen to be Taoiseach but Bertie left us with potentially four years of him leading us.

The Bertie persona was just like Bojo or Trump, a public facade to win people over and convince them he was their pal, a lovable, down-to-earth person of the people. He'd love to be Preisdent: all the media exposure and shaking heads and no need to explain himself.

The personality contest aspect of the Presidential election, as opposed to having to actually have a programme when running for the Dail, gives him a decent chance. We've seen how well Gallagher and Casey and various senators can do in Presidential elections, though it never transfers into getting elected to the Dail.

As a serious politician, he's finished but I fear there's enough people out there who can be fooled into thinking he's some kind of respected elder statesman who'll do a good job at representing us on the international stage.

lawrencesummers

If your going to talk about bertie running then consider the opposition he would have? Because while it might not take a lot to beat him its conceivable that not a lot could run against him

What candidates have the like of Labour / SF got ? The ideal candidate is someone with some or all of the following, years of political life, statesman / stateswoman experience, a base of support, of good standing in the party

Could people like Gerry Adams, Pat Rabbitte, Enda Kenny run?

Could someone come from media circles and run like has been muted about Mirian Ocallaghan in the past? People like Adie Roche have thrown flirted with it in the past.

from those areas is the most likely candidate but dont rule out someone running on a platform of Race / Religion / sexual orientation and getting a lot of support for it.

So talk about bertie running and hopefully being well beaten, but who else could be in the race.

I keep hearing about what an awful person he is without actually hearing about the awful things he did. I wasn't into Irish politics 15 years ago.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282033#Comment_120282033

I would wager there will be a not so complimentary “Bertie” documentary planned for release just before the presidential election kicks off which will be designed to bury him from an election perspective- that and countless weekend supplement articles in the newspapers detailing similar negativity- if the media don’t want him as president, they’ll try their damndest to write him out of history

BrianD3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120281868#Comment_120281868

Some of it is just due to laziness and certain figures having relatively distinctive first names. People refer to Varadkar as "Leo" because others will know who they are talking about and it is easier to say and spell than "Varadkar".

See also Bertie, Enda, Charlie, Garret, Albert but less so with Brian, Micheal, Liam etc.

Anyway, I do agree with the point that people should not refer to politicians by their first names. It introduces a human and colloquial aspect to the interaction which can then be used to the politician's advantage "ah, Bertie is a decent ould character" etc.

PJ2022

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282369#Comment_120282369

Basically took payments from developers and businessmen that were almost definitely bribes.

Also presided over an economically illiterate Fianna Fail that led us to the worst economic crisis in the history of the state, that directly led to the current housing crisis, and compounded many of the current issues we face.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282369#Comment_120282369

Minister for Finance who didnt own a bank account

Won all his money on the horses and kept it in brown envelopes so he did

veryangryman

People need to be reminded about what an absolute white-collar-scmbag the man was. Its actually scary that people are already forgetting. Those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282369#Comment_120282369

A lot of his sins would be forgiven had he not happened to be in charge of the country in the run up to the global financial crisis which was always going to heavily impact a small open economy like Ireland - he was extremely popular up to then but very few people will now admit they supported him.

Polling at the time showed his government actually rose in popularity even as controversies around his financial dealings became known.

Popeleo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282369#Comment_120282369

He also said that anyone who was (correctly) predicting in 2007 that he and his government were driving the economy over a cliff should consider suicide:

'Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide because frankly the only thing that motivates me is being able to actively change something,' he said.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0704/90808-economy/

Muahahaha

I think he has a fair chance of winning the Aras. The weekend polls saying the electorate dont favour either Ahern or Adams are irrelevant because it is not a 1 or 2 horse race and you dont need a majority to win it.

People forget how stupid many Fianna Fail voters actually are. In the election right after they fcuked the economy FF voters still voted for them to the tune of 17%. Thats your died in the wool FF base, you can take money out of their pockets and tax them to oblivion but they will still vote for FF.

All Ahern needs to do is build on that 17% of idiots and get to circa 25%-27% which is typically enough to win the Aras in a crowded field of 6 or 7 candidates. That is not an impossible task. Also the polls at the weekend spun it as how many people would not vote for Ahern but when you broke it down the amount of people who said they definitely would vote for him and probably would vote for him or consider it came to almost 35%. Ahern will be salivating at those numbers because it shows it is possible. It is certainly more possible than his current odds of 12/1 on Paddy Power would suggest, the bookies are way off the mark on his actual chances of winning it. I've just put 20 quid on him because at least if he does win it the 240 quid profit will make me somewhat less annoyed about it.

DrivingMrDaisy

In fairness i haven't spoken to a single person who wants too see this creature as president so that is comforting. I sincerely hope the Irish populace isn't that stupid as to let it happen.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293427#Comment_120293427

According to an Irish Times/IPSOS poll, only 7% said that they would definitley vote for him...

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/02/25/majority-say-they-would-not-vote-for-president-bertie/

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282829#Comment_120282829

My feeling *at the time* was that people felt his cuteness was like an avatar for their own cuteness.

A lot of people were making money and there was a kind of grinning 'We don't care' attitude when the first damaging allegations about Bertie became prominent.

Cynical people see their own dishonesty as a form of cleverness. They're 'too smart' to be sincere.

When Bertie and the economy crashed and burned, these people were probably extra angry due to their own - buried, denied but subconsciously apparent - foolishness.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293407#Comment_120293407

But 51% saying they definitely would not vote for him is largely going to be 51% votingng for his closest rival to ensure he doesn't get it. He'll be the most divisive presidential candidate ever. The people who love him are drastically outnumbered by the people who genuinely hate him.

Muahahaha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293882#Comment_120293882

Thats presuming tactcal voting though and its not likely to the extent required imo especially if the field is as crowded as last time out. As said he only needs to get to around 25-27% and that should be enough to win it. I reckon he will be in the top 2 along with Mairead McGuinness. Also presidential elections have very low turnouts of around 45% and that will suit Ahern down the ground because he would get his vote out. Whether he wins it or not remains to be seen but it will be a lot closer than people think. At 12/1 he is well worth a punt, those odds wont be seen again if he declares for it.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293882#Comment_120293882

I don’t “genuinely hate him” but I also don’t want to see someone in the Aras that a lot of the population “hate”- while many don’t really like Mickey D, or don’t think he’s a good president, there are very few out there who actually “hate” him personally.

But as the poll says, it all depends on the candidates- for me, if there’s 3 other candidates and they’re Dana or Sean or Peter like we had in previous elections then sorry I’m voting Bertie

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120294313#Comment_120294313

The crowded field won't matter though. I think tonassume tactics vot8ng wouldn't happen with Bertie involved is a stretch too, and assuming a low turnout remains is as well. As I said, given the divisive nature of Bertie I think the changes the dynamics of a any presidential election he is involved and makes it harder to compare with previous years.

12/1 I would consider a fair price though, not sure I'd be taking anything less at this stage. His health will be a huge determining factor on whether he runs and he looks like **** at the minute.

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120281935#Comment_120281935

His "peace process legacy" is basically boiled down to this - He was the one sitting his inept arse on the Taoiseach's chair when the British establishment and the Provisional IRA leadership came to an agreement that they could not engage any longer with a bloody war that had the means and function to continue for another 100 years of an all out conflict. Another century of destruction. It had f**k all to do with Ahern, you could have had a donkey sitting on the Leinster House throne, they would have been lauded with this nonsense notion of "legacy" too. The "peace process" was secured in 1987 when the arsenal of the 'Eksund' was infiltrated, when the British finally copped on that the PIRA had the means to wage war on a monumental scale for decades, it had nothing to do with Ahern.

John_Rambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295525#Comment_120295525

That's an interesting view on what Berties role was. Very much at odds with those involved and those reporting on the facts.

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120282746#Comment_120282746

Have a look at the government polls at the moment and I totally agree with you in regards to "scary that people are already forgetting"

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295525#Comment_120295525

I suggest you read up on the history of what actually happened with the GFA. None of that post is historically correct

veryangryman

Bertie is like the big clumsy striker who taps in a cross after the guys before him have done the mazy dribble and beat 5 men

Stanley 1

Always thought it would be a woman that would shaft Bertie either his ex missus, Myriam or his partner, Celia Larkin, but he seems to have paid both off and right now they ain't for turning.

However reckon it would be a different story with Grainne Carruth, whom I believe can't be bought off easily and she will not have forgotten the humiliation she suffered from an SC as Bertie abandoned her on the stand and expected her to lie for him.

Any future opponent to Ahern need just bring her along to a Press Conference and Ahern would be heading for the hills or maybe Nigeria, who were so fond of his Celtic Tiger fables, or more likely wherever Sean Dunne is living.

Karppi

What about Miriam's chances? (O'Callaghan for the avoidance of doubt and confusion). Isn't she a threat to Bertie's ambitions?

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297860#Comment_120297860

Yeah maybe, if she runs.

Beta Ray Bill

I'm actually disgusted at Newstalk for giving Bertie Ahern as stage.

It's really quite disgusting and very irritating, so much so that I actually made a complaint to Newstalk FM about it. (Not something I'd normally do)

The man is a disgraced politician, and a relic of the Haughey era. I would speculate there was a heap of other stuff he was up to in that time that he was never caught for.

The rubbish he spouted about the peace process was the worst of all. Most people that follow politics know that it was Spring and Reynolds that did most of the heavy lifting on the Peace Process and Bertie got in there at the end for the photo op

I do not know if he will become president or not, but if he does, I'd have very little faith in the political process going forward. (For the foreseeable)

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298194#Comment_120298194

Trying to down play Bertie's role in the peace process is a bit bizarre to be honest. It is ok to admit that he done a good job in he peace process but also failed in other section of his job.

On one hand we are been fed by people that the past is in the past for some politicians. Then other we are been told we should never forget

So which one is it?

Also I will point out, I am not defending Bertie here and he should have stayed retired as far as I am concerned.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298404#Comment_120298404

I recognize he contributed towards it, but he and the media seem to imply (as I see it) that it was him who orchestrated the entire thing, and that it would never happened without all his political work, which is just not historically correct.

veryangryman

Can somebody please spell out what exactly he did for the peace process. What did he say to who and when? What rabbit did he pull out of a hat?