Mild/Warm Dry February`s?

Dickie10

have their been many mild to warm februarys that also stayed dry for 2-3 week period? like 12-18 degrees? would 16 degrees be the top of what you could expect? what years dlivere dthis weather?

Neddyusa

I think for those kind of temperatures over several weeks in Feb, it's out to the south of France you'd want to go, not Ireland!

Are you planning on planting a vineyard or something?!

Dickie10

no i was just wondering! i know they are extreme outliers but i was just wondering have thier beeen any or any in the last 40 years?

Neddyusa

SRyan might have those kind of stats.

In fairness I'd say somewhere like Valentia might have had consistent mid-teens February's, but very unlikely dry at the same time.

nacho libre

Are you hoping for a similar February this year, if so don't look at tonights GFS run. It is not what i was hoping to see!

Elmer Blooker

Feb 1998 stands out as being warm and dry, not sure what the ‘official’ high was that month but it would have over 16c at least.

Warm/mild and dry don’t often go together in an Irish winter, generally mild weather is wet.

Two charts here, a week apart but identical, I fear this Feb could be somewhat similar but hope I’m 100% wrong!

pauldry

Yes February 1998 stands out for Me. We went to Mullranny beach one day and it was 18c. Remember my parents saying this must be the global warming. Never had a February like that since. It was 15c quite a few of the days.

Dickie10

wow 18 in february ! would grass start to grow at those temp or would the day length still hinder it?

Elmer Blooker

There were damaging severe frosts in April ‘98 I remember as growth was very advanced after that warm Feb.

sryanbruen

The Irish February record max temp is 18.1C at Phoenix Park in February 1891, a long time ago. Cahore in Wexford got close with 18.0C in February 2012. They're the only times 18C has been achieved at an official Met station in Ireland during the month of February - not counting rounded 17.5-17.9C values. February 1891 had a fair amount of frost by many modern February standards but it was a mild month overall in contrast to the November to January period beforehand which was among the coldest ever recorded (including the coldest December in the Central England Temperature series where records began in 1659) and the February was also exceptionally dry. Phoenix Park had only 1.5mm of rain in February 1891. February 2012 was also a mild and dry month in Ireland whilst it was severely cold for much of Europe.

16C or greater has been achieved at an Irish Met station in the month of February in 2019, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2008, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1961, 1960, 1953, 1945, 1939, 1927, 1920, 1891. Mind the less available stations the further you go back. This gives an estimated return period of every 7 years somewhere in Ireland will achieve a February temperature of 16C or greater.

17C or greater has been achieved in 2019, 2012, 1998, 1940, 1920, 1891. This gives an estimated return of every 21 years somewhere in Ireland will achieve a February temperature of 17C or greater, 3x as rare as 16C. If these values do occur, they are very localised with most in the lower range of 12-15C. The average February daytime temperature in Ireland is typically 8-9C.

These return periods are nationally speaking, they don't into account local variation and station quantity bias. Also note how many years this century so far have achieved 16C compared to the 20th century. Station availability will play a small part here but of course background warming will have played a much bigger part especially as February is one of the months that has had the biggest positive change relative to the late 19th century climate.

A subsequent post, if I get the time, will look at mild and dry Februaries. The most recent one was 2019, away from some western areas, with an exceptionally mild second half including a record-breaking "winter heatwave" for western Europe.

P.s. the official max temp in February 1998 was 17.2C at Glasnevin. February 2019 had a higher 17.6C at Delphi Lodge (Mayo) and of course the aforementioned 2012 18.0C in Wexford.

nacho libre

Such temperatures- 17 - 18 - in February just seems wrong to me. I would never welcome it. I am just glad it does not happen very often. It's like having very low temperatures in June due to Northern Blocking. A complete waste of time

Elmer Blooker

February 1891 went from this (18.1c) ......

..... to this when it was reported there were 300 foot snowdrifts on Dartmoor SW England.

we can live in hope, I wonder if it was a SSW that caused this amazing turnabout?

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124865#Comment_120124865

You're right, daylength is the biggest environmental factor determining grass growth, followed by soil moisture.

Temperature only comes in 3rd.

Hooter23

Seems like global warming was a big problem in the 1887 & 1891 even though they had no cause or excuse for it at the time..although if the warm air is just coming from a very warm place like spain/africa like in those charts...i suppose this explanation these days is too simple and we need a "expert" to make it more complicated than it actually is

cml387

I seem to remember February 1987 as being particularly dry, but memory could be failing.

I do remember at the end of the dry spell one morning the tiled kitchen floor was completely covered in small water droplets, some form on condensation had formed in the weather change.

KanyeSouthEast

Would love a dry mild February.

pauldry

Don't really feel this year will be a mild one. There's still some cold to come yet I get a hunch.

Gonzo

I think the first half of February should be relatively mild, hopefully not an onslaught like what we've endured throughout the majority of the past 4 and a half months. Second half of February could well turn colder especially if we get some sort of decent response from a SSW displacement but at the moment I wouldn't be banking on it to deliver for us.

Having said that there is an ever so slight cooling trend appearing in the GFS ensembles for the first week of February, along way out and it would take a much more pronounced cooling trend to start thinking about the possibilities of cold weather

CrowdedHouse

Looking at my own records February 2019 was quite dry at least with just 46.5 mm rain

High 15.9 - Low -2.8 Ave 7.3

N Tipp

Dickie10

what date was that high?

CrowdedHouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120131553#Comment_120131553

25th

sryanbruen

The coincidence this thread began in January as February 2023 would end up becoming one of the mildest and driest on record. In fact, it was the driest over Ireland since 1900 and the driest since 1993. The driest February on record was back in 1965 which wasn't particularly mild, ended cold even. The mildest February on record was back in 1998 which was dry for most of the country.

CSO haven't given 2023 data yet for whatever reason so cannot give an accurate ranking of February 2023 in terms of mean temperature - the met.ie data is midnight to midnight whilst CSO is the climatological 09-09. Going by the 00-00 means and the mildest Februaries at Irish stations, I think it is fairly safe to say that February 2023 was widely a top 5 mildest on record. This will mean 3 of the top 10 mildest Februaries have occurred in the past 5 years (2019, 2022, 2023).