Travel and holiday interests: extreme heat alert 15th-19th July southeast England, France, Benelux

M.T. Cranium

Off the top I want to underline that this alert does not apply to Ireland on current guidance, and the highest temperatures expected for parts of Ireland around next weekend would be 26-28 C, which is considered hot but not extreme.

The heat developing over France all week is likely to spread into southern England, Belgium and some other parts of western Europe around next weekend. The peak of the heat would be Sunday 17th - Monday 18th on present guidance. Extreme values are possible, with numerical guidance showing values of 41-42 C in southeast England and 44-45 C in Paris and much of northern France, Belgium.

If you had travel or holiday plans that take you into those regions during that time period, I would advise that you monitor these forecasts and consider an alternative plan, and if you're there now consider an earlier return possibly, I would think by Thursday or so, to avoid this extreme heat. Having gone through the "heat dome" situation we had in western Canada (and the northwest U.S.) last summer, it's not just an uncomfortable heat, it can threaten your health and safety. In those regions there are few air conditioned indoor spaces, just as was the case here (air conditioning is common further south, but not in our region because normally a heat wave here has tolerably cool nights and homes do not heat up to dangerous temperatures, in the heat dome, we were seeing hundreds of cases of heat prostration, and of course incendiary fire conditions in the forests and grasslands).

This is an alert rather than a warning, weather models are not perfect but if the numerical output now available is correct, these temperatures are sure to follow, and there will be an emergency situation that you don't want to dabble with if you don't need to (and who else but MTC could manage two dangling prepositions in one sentence? Sacre bleu).

I am reminded of the 2003 heat wave in Paris which briefly impacted southeast England too, but not quite as full on as this may do, also this is worse looking with Paris topping out closer to 42 C in August 2003.

So this thread can now also be used to discuss the extreme heat potential and track what actually happens. I hope it turns out less extreme but I have to report that we had a similar look on our weather guidance here about a week before the severe heat set in (late June 2021) and even though the guidance was essentially correct, most professional forecasters slightly underestimated how hot it could actually become until it hit in full force. At my location, we had three days near 44 C and the previous extreme value all-time was 39 C, so it was that far outside the normal range.

Between now and about Friday of next week, conditions in northern France and southern England will not be all that extreme but it will be sunny and hot, bone dry, so when and if this extreme heat develops, the ground will already be very dry. There would be quite a risk of grass fires, one cause of them can be when overheated vehicles come into contact with dry grass (another cause is when goofballs throw out cigarette butts, is that still a thing in Europe? sadly it is over here) and then also you have cases of arson by those with criminal intent.

If you're in England long-term and wondering how widespread this could be, it looks more tolerable from about B'ham to Leicester to Lincoln north and west, most of north-central England and Wales would top out around 31-34 C, southern Scotland likely 28-32 C.

Nights will not provide a lot of relief in the main heat zones, even if lows do fall to around 20-22 C like they did in our heat dome situation, the relief is too brief to make any impact on indoor temperatures. We found it very difficult to keep indoor temperatures below 32 C even with all windows open all night. It would fall off to maybe 27 C by dawn then start rising again.

[Deleted User]

Nice to see a thread about this thanks MT. It would be insane for England to hit 40c let alone exceed it by a couple of degrees. Interesting week of model watching.

Billcarson

IF southern England hits those temperatures, really does show the uncharted territory we are in. Scary.

M.T. Cranium

Somewhat perversely, the ECM and GFS 00z runs have not only converged, they may have exchanged to some extent. Anyway, the prospect of severe heat in France is looking almost certain now (could hit 44 C in Paris), southern England remains more of a question mark but the variations are still mid to high 30s there.

The eventual solution will not be that clear for several days yet. Chances seem slim that Ireland would get into any part of this, a more moderate warmth should prevail as there is little southeast component to the surface wind directions, more like southwest. Still looks like a 25-28 C peak in the usual warmer southern inland locations.

beggars_bush

We're near Lascaux with a 4 year old and monitoring the situation very closely

Very little air con in accommodations round here

M.T. Cranium

I suppose if you can't get back to Ireland mid-week (had to look up the location, it's northeast of Bordeaux) when the severe heat develops there, you could look into options of going higher up (to your east, or the Pyrenees or even the Alps) where it would be cooler especially overnight, the higher up you could go, the better.

I was in Bergerac not too far from Lascaux for a few days in 1974 to visit a friend who had taken a one-year teaching English job there and was just finishing up, after which we headed back to Paris and off to Germany and Austria. The weather was rather warm but nothing like this. I found the people very friendly in that part of France and the only issue I had was to explain that my 75 registration car was a rental, I wasn't actually a Parisien. The one thing I recall besides the good times would be the surprise of finding that people drove with their parking lights only at night in rural France, is that still the case? I found it very unsettling. My friend may have known about Lascaux and visited it, but it never came up in the conversation and I was rather clueless about travel options back in the day, it was more like just the experience of being in France, although I did manage to get to Versailles and Chartres on the way down to Bergerac.

Getting back to weather, the 06z GFS returned to the mega-heat scenario so now it's on to the 12z confrontation of the main models, if this continues to be the theme we will be moving rather ominously towards that five day barrier where forecasts usually start to take on a very credible look.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119317955#Comment_119317955

Thanks for advice

We don't drive much at night, but the night sky is so clear.

Issue is money paid for accommodation until next Monday. We're on a hilly site at the moment with plenty of breeze.

Pyrenees might be an option though

Thelonious Monk

Going back to London tomorrow, next weekend is looking rough. 40c in f*cking England, can it happen? It's almost as if the climate is changing or something...

gandalfio

Is this forecast/likely to impact southern Spain?

NIMAN

Those are severe temps, very uncomfortable.

No danger of any rise in the north of donegal!! Met.ie is saying 16c for next weekend for me.

Surely there has to be a happy medium.

shesty

We are in Portugal now, right on the coast in the Algarve, in 35 degree heat.

It is very hot.I don't think it will get much hotter here, I think the peak is this weekend but it is uncomfortable.There is usually a nice breeze here but it wasn't evident today.It is getting to about 25 degrees the last two nights inside the house, without air con.

We were in the UK when it hit 38deg in summer 2019 for a couple of days and it was hideous.We have access to a swimming pool here and have air con in the villa ,but I wouldn't fancy it getting any hotter.Or enduring it without air con.

Danno

While it will get nice and hot - there could be a spectacular finish!

M.T. Cranium

Different models have slightly different timing for peak heat and breakdown. The peak in London could be Monday 18th or even Monday-Tuesday. The breakdown could be thundery, or largely dry. This will be an interesting test for model reliability.

There is also a recent trend towards a slight moderation which may be too slight to make much difference to the public health and safety issues, more like the chances of all-time records falling. 35-37 C in London would still be a rather extreme value even if they avoid 40, and 38-41 in Paris more like 2003 than the 44 being advertised a while ago.

Will continue to monitor.

BullBauld

Jaysus we're sailing on Friday to France. This really does not suit me....very anxious about it now. I know it's short-lived but still.

Irish_rat

Heading to London early next week, probably no air con in the hotel, doesn't bode too well!

highdef

I'm in Nice at the moment. Weather is beautiful but it's outside of the heatwave areas. Temperatures are only about 30° by day and mid 20s at night. Don't have air con in the villa I'm staying in but I just leave the sheets off and I sleep well.

Spending about 6 to 8 hours sunbathing or having fun in the pool every day. It's bliss.

Darwin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327250#Comment_119327250

Ditto, weather is about par for the course here, Nice usually misses the severe heat the rest of the country gets. However you pay for it at night, next weeks forecast is 28c during the night hours. I have a cooling gel pad that I take out of the fridge before bed and shove in the pillow which does the job lol. Last summer was bliss, no crowds and mid 20s all summer!

beggars_bush

Weather has moderated at bit in the Dordogne from earlier forecasts.

34C today. The lack of breeze is the real issue, despite us being at a nice hilly site

Still 36C forecast for tomorrow and 39C for Monday! Though our campsite host said it reached 41C a few weeks back

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119328445#Comment_119328445

I'm out by the pool in Nice at the moment. It's just under 26° and to me, it is just bliss. Don't have air con but I just don't use and bed sheets. Have slept like a log every night. Could do this all year but agreed that Nice is one of the cooler places of Southern France.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334202#Comment_119334202

Interesting.

Does it get a cooling breeze off the sea?

Reckless Abandonment

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335054#Comment_119335054

It dose. But I find you have to be very close to the sea to get it . Beautiful part of the world. Luckily get to visit it every year with friends. I'd move there in the morning. Was there in April amazing blue sky's but bloody freezing:) which was unusual for it

M.T. Cranium

Highest in southwest France on Saturday was 41 C at Belis, same location already near that with several hours to go to peak heat today. The severe heat is rapidly spreading north today and tomorrow looks to bring the worst of this heat wave there, Monday and Tuesday for parts of southern and central England set to be around 37 C and 39-40 C. Today will likely top out around 32 C there.

rameire

I'm heading to Madrid second week of August. With the temperatures I'm hoping that they back off a good bit. As mid 40s is unbearable. thankfully 10 days out from now the temps are showing mid 30s on the ECMW.

If they are in the 40s I'll be cancelling as it's not worth it.

beggars_bush

Temp projections have moderated a bit in the Dordogne, from 41C back to 39C tomorrow.

Was 37C today apparently but it didn't feel so bad due to a breeze

45C predicted for around Archaron basin west of Bordeaux. Maybe that's due to the fires

Darwin

Don't have the same daytime heat problems in SE France as the West coast, but it was 29c at 3am last night according to my phone. The official data is 27.5c and that is a new heat record in July for night time in Nice.

millb

I was looking at the UK.gov Met website and can't find any current temps?

The entire site seems to be a mess so I'm wondering is there a way to look at live / official met office data uk ? ( without having to geo-locate myself or pay a governmental surcharge ) Maybe its all been levelled down or commercialised?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119353774#Comment_119353774

This is the easiest way: https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

snowstorm445

Absolutely roasting here in Belgium today, it clipped the thirties before in the last few weeks but this feels different. The wind feels like the blast of air you get from an oven. I spent the afternoon walking in a forest yesterday and even under the shade the air was very warm.

It's meant to top out at 40 in some parts of Flanders tomorrow, 39 here in Brussels. And a thundery breakdown to follow on Wednesday.

Irish_rat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119354255#Comment_119354255

Similar feel here in SE England. Wind is very hot!!

[Deleted User]

This Monday, July 18 was the hottest day of this heat wave.Many absolute temperature records have been broken, the values of which below are provisional values at 5 p.m.

• Brest (29): 39.3 °C. Old record: 35.1 °C on 09/08/2003. Station opened in 1945.
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• Saint-Brieuc (22): 39.5 °C. Old record: 38.1 °C on 05/08/2003. Station opened in 1985.
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• Nantes (44): 42.0 °C. Old record: 40.3 °C on 12/07/1949. Station opened in 1945.
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• La Roche-sur-Yon (85): 41.4 °C. Old record: 38.8 °C on 06/27/2019. Station opened in 1984.
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• Cazaux (33): 42.4 °C. Old record: 40.6 °C on 07/30/2020. Station opened in 1921.

M.T. Cranium

Exact numbers to be confirmed but several locations in western France reached values just under 43 C and the highest I saw on hourlies in England was 38 for Cambridge. They are not on the current daily max map where 37.3 is highest. Eventually we may get numbers a bit higher. Tomorrow of course will be a degree or two higher at least, also in Paris which had highs around 38 to 39 C today.

It's remarkable how widespread the 40+ temps are in western France, right out to the coast in many places. The east-southeast breeze was ideal for negating most sea breezes. Even out in the ocean on Belle Ile highs were into the mid 30s.