A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195318#Comment_120195318

The difference is that Italy has 150% debt to GDP so it is irrelevant to compare . The government itself has quite a lot of gold but very little natural proven resources.

I don't think they are even in the top 50.

https://www.basicplanet.com/top-10-countries-natural-resources-world/

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120202335#Comment_120202335

There are three US states that have a larger GDP than Russia's, one state alone is twice it's GDP. The point being that Russia's economy, on a global level, is not that big.

Russia can have an impact on the global economy but it's important not to overestimate it. That impact and their capacity to do so also seems to be waning.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185560#Comment_120185560

Nah Russia is sort of "at war" [kind of another Cold War?] with us and it has been ratcheting up and getting worse for several years now....certainly extremely hostile.

With Ukraine invasion, the alarm bell has gone off in a big way and woken people in (Western) Europe up fully. The smell of burning can't be ignored any more.

Shouldn't you be heading off given Russia has these great prospects opening up, gung ho trading with Asia etc. vs the grim and poverty stricken economic future facing Ireland and the EU (per predictions on this thread over past few months)?

We were not reduced to shivering and eating cold beans from tins this winter but no doubt it will come next year, or the one after, so better get ahead of the catastrophe and stake out a bright and shining future in Russia (or maybe even the new Russian territories in Ukraine...!). Best of luck!

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120202462#Comment_120202462

As per Italy, GDP does not matter if its income is less than its debt. They have to borrow money to run the country every month. How is that some sort of great thing.

You cannot eat GDP and GDP does not keep you warm. Who cares what your income is if you have little debt but sat on trillions of assets, if you break even each year you are still loaded.

mcsean2163

Clearly sanctions have not worked as hoped with RUBUSD trading near the same as before the war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RUBUSD%3DX/

However, sanctions do seem to have impacted Russia to some degree and may cause them pause for thought depending on their strategy.

This is not the Russia thread, I wonder can it return to the intended topic?

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120203907#Comment_120203907

The sanctions were clearly rushed and designed to cause maximum damage to Russia's economy. The problem appears to be that very little thought seems to of gone into " what is the worst case scenario for us if it does not go according to plan. "

Probably the reason 87% of the world has not joined in was because they knew that they would be worse off and who want's that. Oil is a very big thing for the global economy and if you must pay more, then you have to pay more for all the products that are made from it. Meanwhile the 87% are paying less and all the products made from it cost them less. The decisions have been made now we just need to see how things work out, who knows what happens.

I agree the war has no place in this thread but it is difficult to ignore Russia's importance to the global economy. It will cost both sides money for the next few years at least until they adapt to the new normal.

brickster69

A partial list of the 6000 everyday items made from oil.

https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-petroleum/

brickster69

German industry saying that they are no longer competitive and moving investment overseas due to unstable energy costs. Quite sad really that a few idiot politicians took the path they have while knowing the whole economy was built on cheap energy.

https://archive.ph/kGznm#selection-4769.1-4769.40

Jonnyc135

Democratic Republic of Congo has the greatest reserve of peat bogland going. There are buying machinery off wilsons auctions in Kingswood Dublin off Bord na Mona at the minute and going to rip out the forest in the middle of the Congo as meters upon meters of bog under neath. They will use that for power generation that will radically change their economy much like what Devalera did with Ireland back in the day. Green brigade saying nothing about that or the cobalt being mined there. Time to start exporting stanley 90 ranges to the congo

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120202335#Comment_120202335

Whoosh. Similar sized economy but over twice the population - Russia is a poor country and getting poorer under Putin's disastrous rule.

mike_cork

5% cut in headcount coming at Dell

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dell-to-cut-6-650-jobs-report-says-11675671372

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207292#Comment_120207292

Saudi Arabia's has 7 times the population but only has a 40% bigger economy than Ireland, so what is your point exactly ?

Try adding a few extra things eg. Debt

Saudi 152 bn Euro

Russia 350 bn

Ireland 240 bn

Then add assets

Saudi 35 Trillion Euro

Russia 80 Trillion

Ireland ????

brickster69

US putting 200% sanctions on Russian Aluminum.

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1622602695533117440

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120202511#Comment_120202511

What a strange post but not surprising. If you are not with us you must be against logic is wrong and just because I do not subscribe to russophobia it does not mean I am in love with them. I do not care that you or someone else hate them, I just pointed to make believe arguments about how their economy is failing. It is not and it is not my problem you do not wat to see it.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120208706#Comment_120208706

What was strange? (edit: the life advice?) Your original post was far stranger.

You didn't "just" point anything out, you made claims sanctions on Russia only hurt us, Russia will be more successful than the EU over coming years and also that the EU/Europe and I assume Ireland are somehow "trying to be at war" with Russia (it only wants to be left alone in peace to destroy Ukraine I presume).

1st is a lie, 2nd is very doubtful, 3rd a lie, all are really just echoing Russian govt. talking points like alot of accounts use this thread for...

On your propaganda snarl word of "Russophobia"...I find Russia quite frightening, and I don't think it is a phobia!

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120208510#Comment_120208510

Does that include agunanish in Limerick

brickster69

China banned exports of solar panel equipment before the balloon crisis. Possibly in a tit for tat response to the banning of chip equipment.

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/china-bans-export-of-core-solar-panel-technologies/

Things seem to be going downhill quite fast between the US and China with the US announcing 4 new bases in the Phillipine's and no doubt plenty of boomerangs will be launched this year at some point.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-us-spy-balloon-europe-ties-fragile/

brickster69

Mortgage lending down 60% since March with no sign of interest rate rises ending soon.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120208831#Comment_120208831

No. Your first sentence is a lie. I did not say such thing and you can go back and check yourself. As for who is at war with whom, well, if one claim that russia is at war with europe then europe being at war with russia is equally valid.

That eu will fare worse than russia is not my opinion, it is something IMF claimed 3 days ago in case you missed it.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120211109#Comment_120211109

Russia declared war on Ukraine, and by extension on the West (e.g. using energy as a weapon), the EU is responding and not the aggressor.

The above graph estimates do not show Russia faring better. The figures are relative. According to the IMF Russia dropped -2.2 in 2022 (according to others it was higher), will "rise" 0.3 of that in 2023, then in 2024 estimated to rise 2.1 of that figure. Not much more than a flat net.

In contrast the IMF estimates put growth at over 5% (aggregate) for Europe in that period.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120211109#Comment_120211109

Okay I reread and see you admitted the sanctions hurt Russia too, fair enough. You claim the sanctions hurt us more (not true).

It's all a bit circular, but am glad to see you admit there is a war of sorts on between EU countries and Russia (mainly an economic war for now anwyay). 

The ordering is important though. Russia and Putin have engineered and desire this state of conflict, no one in the EU wanted any of this to happen ("tried" to be at war). Carrying on turning the other cheek to Russia's hostility and aggression, siloing and ignoring what is happening in Ukraine as just not the EUs problem or some such is not going to lead anywhere good (for us anyway, don't know about you or where your sympathies lie).

"Those who have not swords can still die upon them" or perhaps the more highbrow quote is "you may not be interested in war but war is interested in you". Russia is interested in war, that is for sure.

On the IMF forecast, had not seen it - think it is shaky ground to be basing your predictions of some Russian economic miracle on vs the EU. The sanctions and the cutoff still had to happen anyway. in fact this disconnection is not complete, globalisation makes it very hard for that to happen quickly.

There's still a large number of Western companies operating in Russia, doing very useful stuff. They haven't been forced to choose yet. Russia is busy buying a fortune in sanctioned Western goods through intermediaries and 3rd countries (that's the great shift to Asian trade on the import side). I believe that won't last as this war goes on and will be clamped down on.

Hotblack Desiato

An extra percent or so of growth (from a very low base) is most certainly not going to lead to Russia being "way better off than the EU in the next few years".

brickster69

Zoom to layoff 15% of it's global workforce

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1623011128933593118

Dohnjoe

Title of the thread probably a little off considering no global recession on the horizon. I can suggest "Cherry-picked bad economic news and layoffs, sprinkled with the odd bit of good news to maintain a veneer of objectivity"

Too long?

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212388#Comment_120212388

How does that compare to precovid staff numbers

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212445#Comment_120212445

I find this argument a bit convoluted the numbers are being cut the perceived growth is not going to happen ergo tech is shrinking it may be more than what was added during covid I mean zoom should of been raking it in with covid and afterwards for the foreseeable future with the new working from home paradigm others like Microsoft, Dell or Intel you could say that there has been a reduction in things like sales of PCs but Zoom should not of been impacted like this when you actually move away from the argument.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212396#Comment_120212396

While nobody can say for sure how the economy will look in a year's time, the past 12 months have been fairly bumpy on all fronts and follow 2 years that saw the handbook thrown out the window. It's hard to know what way things will go but with the World Bank only recently warning of the potential for a global recession, I think the title is still fairly relevant. Of course it will eventually be correct.

brickster69

Probably more a long term fixed price agreement for quota free access than what the reporter is presuming.

https://twitter.com/spotlightoncn/status/1622973473659424770

Hotblack Desiato

Surprised anyone still uses Zoom tbh, it's shíte.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120213127#Comment_120213127

Crap I've never had a meeting on one without a drop out. Teams a far superior platform