I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120018444#Comment_120018444

a "good" one, as thought would be at least double figures

sadly not, as BERNADINE's (12.20 Lingfield tomoro) lto and very unlucky 7th of 9 at Wolves, obviously not gone unseen by layers

small win on Bernadine 11/2; might go ew at some stage if bigger odds, but win only at current prices

j@utis

Bernadine entered into my notebook for the same reason last time. I missed to back her today - too busy with xmas prep.

j@utis

Cam Hardie is on Master Zoffany in 3:25 Wolves, I'm so annoyed 😠

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120001359#Comment_120001359

still, in the last - the 5.25 Southwell - ELETTARIA caught the eye. ran okay at Wolves lto after an absence over the extended mile trip. will be only her second run for latest connections, and the filly showed potential on her last run for Clive Cox when she came 5th over 6f at Kempton. Looked, going on form shown then, as if seven furlongs should suit.

don't know if it will, but looks a nice price at 25/1 . will go each way on Elettaria here also. chance each way double too

ELETTARIA 11/1 EW goes again in Southwell 2.51 tomorrow. Ran no kind of race lto on second run for new connections; that race was over 7furlongs, and horse is upped in trip to a mile here - which is interesting, very interesting 🙉. Only a Classified Stakes race this, so should have right good chance I reckons

guud luuk

j@utis

Saddle slipped on Elettaria and it was game over from the very start...

The last race in Southwell is doing my head in... I spent half an hour on it and nothing, I might just leave it at this point...

j@utis

I applied some statistics to my betting log for the last year and "discovered" that I totally suck at picking winners in sprint AW races (except 5f in Wolves), so I'm gonna stay out of those for this month and see how it goes. If I take away my bets over sprint distances, I basically break even for the years which is great - free entertainment - that's what I'm looking for. Have a good punting year to all. Enjoy.

hayrabit

a few at reasonable prices for today - Monday 2nd Jan '23. will go each way and hope one can hit back of net

Lingfield

12.53 BRAVURA 11/1 looked like further than 7furlongs is needed going on his his lto and first ever run, which was at the course. has good draw and staying looks assured. wouldn't want to improve much to get involved here. drawn low in four should help

Newcastle

4.40 BELLAGIO MAN 5/1 usually goes close over 6fs on the Tapeta. looks value at prices available. reckon Antony Brittain's 4yo is more a 4/1 poke

5.10 I'll go with three win selections here:

TANTASTIC 7/1 , AMASOVA 9/1 , TATHMEEN 15/2

j@utis

Where's leff gone? We had so much fun here last year, I kinda miss that.

hayrabit

Bernadine out again on Thursday. upped in trip to 1m this time - not so sure about that. paper has her as 11/2 third fav - looks a good price anyhow. worth a win bet at them odds

goes in 6.o'c Kempton - in a race where Blue Curacao ~5/1 & Ready Reckoner ~7/1 are also of interest

plenty of these are unproven or have yet to win over a mile, with exception of Greavsie ~7/2 prov. fav, who's won over a mile on turf. that was at F. Las last Sept. made all that day to win, but is drawn high enough in box nine here. likely be held up and possibly grab a place, but looks unlikely winner to me

hayrabit

Friday 20 Jan

Southwell

12.50 NELLIE FRENCH ~9/2 early fav EW. comes late this one usually. likely be coming wide and late, on who looks of late to be a golden highway of sorts on the outside compared to the inner

2.20 DUBAI JEANIUS ~7/1 Win , HAMMY END ~7/1 EW

Hughes' 6/4 jolly Villalobos has been going well as of late since winning at Lingfield over a mile in September. has since won once and come second twice from three 10furlong outings on the Polytrack surface, with one of those (the win) at Chelmsford and t'other at Lingfield. is upped in trip a furlong and may try lead from box one. might well be caught or not be suited by the course as has had one poor outing since that win in Sept, and that was at Wolves over 9.5furlongs in October - when going off a short price. not one to be too worried about imo

3.20 FAST FLO ~66/1 EW. a speculative pick here. a seven runner maiden what aint shown much at all thus far. her sole visit to the course saw her come ninth of fourteen over 7fs two runs back. beat less than 5lgths then at 100/1. sports a first-time visor as well, and this particular race may present a chance for the 4yo filly to put in a good showing. she was a bit unlucky that day in September at the course; as well as breaking slowly, she was a bit unlucky not to finish closer, and seemed to be staying on then. tried chasing the pace the time after that when finishing 10th over a mile at Chelmsford lto. hoping she's held up on Friday anyhow

hayrabit

one for on Saturday

Navan: Soft - Heavy

2.17 RUN FOR HARRY ~8/1 EW

came third on his sole Bumper start on soft going. looked a very poor race going on the time it took; but it was the selection's sole start to date, and the horse ran a bit keen an' all. breeding suggests that heavy going be eminently suitable.

is up agin a WPM hotpot in ~6/4 shot It's For Me, who's had just the sole start to date; which culminated in his winning a good ground PtP quite easy, but that was over ~3m on far better ground = not worried about him in the slightest: if he wins he wins !

2nd fav ~4/1 shot Criminal Mischief is a completely unraced one of Willie's, so no opinion on that one; and ~11/2 third fav My Trump Card is stepping down ~1/2m from his first and only run - which, strangely (to me anyway 😃) was a Maiden Hurdle!

might could be the slow/slowish pace gave selection a chance of placing lto, but Run For Harry wasn't totally unsupported that day, and will hopefully strip fitter on his second outing. looks like he's a pace-chaser, so will hope he's not far off the lead during early proceedings

some good trainers represented, including Noel Meade who has the unraced ~13/2 prov. 4th in the betting Calazure. hope to get a good price on the selection atc, as, as well as the ones mentioned, a couple more around the double figure price mark (Sutton's Hill ~8/1, and Ballystone ~10/1) have good form figures from PtPs

will go win on selection if around 5s on offer, and each way on RFH if available @ 6/1 or bigger

hayrabit

Saturday again

Lingfield

3.57 STARSHIBA 3/1 win

a horse in a rich vein of form, as is his jockey Daniel Muscutt - who's been imperious as of late

selection has plenty of weight on his back tho, and plenty of the challengers have lots of low numbers beside they names, so it looks a hot enough Class 5. 3/1, if available, does look plenty fair here, and Starshiba surely looks a hold up merchant, so will expect him to come late on, and not be concerned about how the race pans out 'early doors' , as, doubtless, it's unlikely to be a dawdle = no need to look at the rest of 'em 😋

guud luuk

hayrabit

one for tomorrow

Friday 20 January

Market Rasen - Soft (frozen in places 😲) never saw 'frozen' in going description before. Inspection noon Thursday (according to racecard) , so must've passed??

anyhow,

3.00 MR

Mares' Bumper here. lots of form horses, which sees Sherwood's Queen's Gamble as the ~10/11 fav and it's ~5s bar. Queens Gamble couldn't have won her first two Bumper outings much easier, but both those were: 1: both hold-up rides & 2: ran on good ground (both were at Cheltenham) .

so, the ground is a ? as well as the horse's riding style; not guaranteed to like soft going, and a (likely) hold-up ride may not be what ye doctor ordered. if racing goes ahead, and horse is ~ evens, then i'll likely do a 3/4 place-lay/s on this skinny jolly

gl

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124574#Comment_120124574

Southwell

12.50 NELLIE FRENCH ~9/2 early fav EW. comes late this one usually. likely be coming wide and late, on who looks of late to be a golden highway of sorts on the outside compared to the inner

Nellie French 9/2 good price, so worth a win or each way bet at them odds

another one in the first -

12.50 Southwell

don't know why Golden Prosperity is ~11/4 fav here, and Ustath ~5/1 also needs to improve on recent form to get involved - is dropping down weights, but he hasn't won since last summer, and it's been just over two years since he's won at minimum trip. is interesting nonetheless, and wouldn't be a big surprise should he win, but aint for me at all atc

one with an each way chance is the well-priced ARZAAK 16/1 EW. goes well at Southwell and returns there for first time in almost a year. drifted like a barge lto, after over a 100 days absence, and ran wide from a poor enough draw in finishing a moderate 7th at Wolves over the minimum

is drawn low enough in stall three here for one that normally follows leaders when running over course/distance. looks about an 11 or 12 to 1 shot to me, so at the 14s and 16s available, Arzaak is worth a yoyo or two each way here as there's enough to like

Maybe Tonight is the blinkered 2nd fav @ ~9/2 and, like the fav Golden Prosperity, is a maiden. don't know why he's as short as he is. aint seeing it myself. wouldn't be surprised if neither Golden Prosperity, Ustath, and Maybe Tonight all fail to finish in top four.

anyhow, it's NELLIE FRENCH 9/2 NAP & ARZAAK 16s NB for me here. Nellie's got strong win credentials and Arzaak looks like an outsider with more'n an each way squeak - solid each way claims imo 😊

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120132533#Comment_120132533

Nellie French wins 😊

from a change in her usual tactics, as she raced prominent today

not sure where other pick, Arzaak, finished

edit: Arzaak only 9th :(

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120124574#Comment_120124574

2.20 DUBAI JEANIUS ~7/1 Win , HAMMY END ~7/1 EW

Hughes' 6/4 jolly Villalobos has been going well as of late since winning at Lingfield over a mile in September. has since won once and come second twice from three 10furlong outings on the Polytrack surface, with one of those (the win) at Chelmsford and t'other at Lingfield. is upped in trip a furlong and may try lead from box one. might well be caught or not be suited by the course as has had one poor outing since that win in Sept, and that was at Wolves over 9.5furlongs in October - when going off a short price. not one to be too worried about imo

Dubai Jeanius was never much bigger than 7/2 - around 3s now = no bet on topweight

Hammy End trading at ~9s atm, each way on that one

hayrabit

2.20 Southwell

George Ridsdale @ 7/2 in betting has seen plenty of support today (8s earlier) ,, not seeing it myself,, never won north of 10fs on the flat (11fs the trip today) ,, also has been a bit keen-going lately; has gone off at short/shortishish prices / been well supported recently w/o winning

chanced a 4-place lay @ ~3/5

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120134176#Comment_120134176

Dubai Jeanius wins snugly @ 5/2 :( thought he was short enuf at 7/2 😋 😴

got place on Hammy End tho - 2 picks ran well = not so bad 😛

hayrabit

3.20 FAST FLO ~66/1 EW. a speculative pick here. a seven runner maiden what aint shown much at all thus far. her sole visit to the course saw her come ninth of fourteen over 7fs two runs back. beat less than 5lgths then at 100/1. sports a first-time visor as well, and this particular race may present a chance for the 4yo filly to put in a good showing. she was a bit unlucky that day in September at the course; as well as breaking slowly, she was a bit unlucky not to finish closer, and seemed to be staying on then. tried chasing the pace the time after that when finishing 10th over a mile at Chelmsford lto. hoping she's held up on Friday anyhow

no good Fast Flo - folded like a cheap suit (was well beaten at that point anyway) at 2furlong pole

was in box seat most of race, on rail; drifted too, so perhaps not a complete forlorn hope if tackling CD again -- would surely need hold-up ride to be seen to any kind of effect tho

hayrabit

wasn't planning on having a bet at Newcastle, but summat Sir Bob said prick'd me ears

he was on about Elle-May Croot (7lbs) and her dad (owner) has one running in the next:

4.15 Newcastle

RECORWOMAN 18/1 EW

looks a tasty price going on the form of her 2nd and 3rd runs

I think Eleven Eleven ~9/2 is likely leader here

one more pick here: WHATWOULDYOUKNOW 11/2 Win,, a recent(ish) CD winner on the Standard/Slow going, has a good draw also

guud luk

hayrabit

6.15 Newcastle

chance a win lay here

MAN OF EDEN ~4/6 don't look to have much to beat here - Admiral Jack & Latest Edition, both trading @ ~9/2 don't exactly seem to have astounding claims neither

Man Of Eden is still owned by same chap, but is now trained in England. looks no shorter than an even money shot imo, and it wouldn't be too difficult to make an opposing case as to the claims of the jolly here. i think something, at least one beast, can finish in front of Roger Charlton's 3-y-o gelding (tho it does look a gilt edged opportunity for the D J Deer owned son of Zoffany)

gone win lay at ~ 8/11-4/5 mark

if any other horse (and there are some newcomers) had any sort of 1m Maiden form, then this fav would likely be at least 11/8 imo

g'l

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120134984#Comment_120134984

only second Whatwouldyouknow :(

slow run race - think the draw found out Recorwoman (who finished well down field)

hayrabit

one more -

6.45 Newcastle

MUMCAT 13/2 Win, sound claims, good price

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120135087#Comment_120135087

no joy there, fav wins :(

will keep onside for lay purposes for races upcoming - could be vulnerable under similar trip/surface if facing betterer horses another time

got price wrong too; wins at 2/5 😖😢

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120135582#Comment_120135582

2nd 😓

hayrabit

will keep eye out for that MUMCAT, esp if going back to CD on the Standard/Slow going,, was out on the wing tonight and had no cover/nothing to take her into the race today,, ran a very good race atc - a little keen early doors as well

she has an entry in 2nd last race, the 3.30 at Newcastle, next Wednesday - that race is over 7furlongs (tonights was over 6fs) and on the (atm anyhow) Standard/Slow going,, will hope she goes and gives a 'reasonable' ('poor' be better still 😃) account - w/o winning,, think she's vulnerable over 7f at GP

:)

hayrabit

Monday 23rd Jan 2023

Wolverhampton

4.55

Classified Stakes race this with a lot of very poor horses in it. some have form over a mile, but not much beyond that trip - trip in concern is 1m 1f 104yds.

Faithless Insomnia is the early ~10/3 paper fav here - presumably based on his placing 2nd (in another Classified Stakes affair) over 10fs at Lingfield on his second last outing; and as well as his being lightly raced, he's only had just the eight runs to date. Not for me! not at the prices anyhow - he can win as he likes (if he's good enough 😀) at those kinda odds. as i was looking at his form, i was expecting him to be a massive double figure price 😆

Mark Loughnane has the ~4/1 second fav Well Prepared here. not seeing it on known form, and i don't care how good of a jockey his kid is 😂 Well Prepared came a respectable enough fourth (when fairly well supported) lto at Lingfield in the race where Faithless Insomnia finished 2nd. Well Prepared came from off the pace that day, and, being drawn in box nine, will likely try the same on Monday, but i don't think Well Prepared is good enough, myself

the first-time blinkered and lightly raced All Aboard is the provisional ~9/2 third fav. having his 3rd run for Mick Appleby, and eighth in total, i'm not seeing any piece of form that gives the 4yo gelded son of Anjaal any kind of chance here

Odd Socks Havana ~11/2 has won three times in his career, including a course win over the extended mile. seems to be tactically versatile, and has the excellent P J McDonald on top, but i'm not so sure about the trip for the 5yo. have to give this one the swerve, but would be far from being a surprise winner

another one i'm overlooking (atm anyhow) is Krystal Maze ~8/1, as the 5-y-o is yet to put in a decent showing when racing north of a mile. she's tackled the extended mile at the course three times and the best finishing position she's managed is a third place back in 2021 - that was another Classified affair, and over the 1m 142yds trip - not so sure about the almost 1furlong extra she'll be tackling on Monday. seems to be stoutly bred on Damside, so maybe go win only on her if price is favourable.

2 each way picks in this:

CAPTAIN ST LUCIFER ~11/1 EW . has previously gone close over CD. wasn't beaten too far lto. is drawn well in stall two, and if Jack Mitchell (the top course jock, and whom takes the ride for the first time) can get her to settle, then Captain St Lucifer has to be a player here

CONNIE R 16/1 EW . looks a "no-brainer" pick this one. has a good draw in box four, and came 2nd over course & distance in an "ordinary" Class6 two runs back - where the 18 runner maiden was also drawn in the four box, in a field which also contained 12 runners. a good chance this for Micky Herrington's 4yo to break her duck here imo

:)

guud luuk

hayrabit

back to today

3.45 Southwell

for no particular reason i'm going for MADAME MARMALADE 22/1 EW here. finished close enough to the winner at Chelmsford two runs back, as well as the filly's price, is why pen landed on this 4yo

of the ones at the top of the betting, i think Golden Prosperity 15/2 can go well. may yet back him

two (at most 😃) picks is plenty enough here! Ustath 5/2 sets the standard, but hard enough to trust as pretty much needs to lead, imo, to win. sure to have his fans, and be a long way from surprise winner, but little value with him and his odds, i feel

Paddy K 9/4 is one what has seen plenty of money and is marginal fav here. yet to win and could be improving, and ran a good race over CD lto, but appeals not at current odds.

gl

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138544#Comment_120138544

based on their prices, and on how the race may (or may not 😋) pan out, i've done a couple of hopeful 4-place lays on Ustath & Paddy K @ ~4/9 & ~1/2

gluk

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120132274#Comment_120132274

fav was too way good for 'em - was 10s for Chelty Bumper before this race apparently; be a lot shorter now?

no good to me tho

jockey on my pick Run For Harry didn't try too hard to come placed - finished 4th at 14/1,, always the way 😅 :(