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I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    4:55 Windsor - Talap caught my eye - didn't show much in Bath on penultimate run but that's a tricky course, not suitable for all the horses, but he ran much better lto in Lingfield until hitting the traffic while full of running, chances.

    and the last one 3:00 Ponte - Cumulonimbus I feel it's a strong favorite and I can't make very strong cases for the other except the obvious Sun King but the later has a nasty wide draw to jump from.

    GL.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Harry The Haggler looks a better proposition than David Loughnane horse - Sparks Fly has only ran as far as 7fs and only on the AW; not so sure about them 'Muharrar' progenies on the turf, me

    me -gammy as fooque- racecarde has that race dahn as 4.55 :( :(

    i'll go with your pick there j , as far too awkward to look me own self, today, the way the site is. could be for 'best 😁

    is ur tomatoes nice nd wed an joosy missus ?? 🙂 🤗



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    🤣 ah stop, it's only tomatoes not melons and such 🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    dat's a good retort j 🤣🤣 props !!

    tis the warm weather and folks talkn about "asses" and such what has me giddy on hyah 😃



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Prosper Legend doesn't win which good for two reasons - I didn't back him and the odds gonna be better next time he's out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    too lazy to do much study today

    JP's Didtheyleaveuotto seeing some support for 4,10 Ponty.. will tune in for that one.,, pretty sure that that's (2m. 5f. 139yds. trip) the longest flat race in ye British Isles

    ___________________

    tried to tackle Wolves last night - got bogged down in the first however :( too many horses with winning, or going very close over the distance (extended mile) form, in that Apprentice race opener.. might go with two of the unlikelier ones each way for that race: the first time cheekpiece wearing HASEEF, who'll be having first run for new connections. will prolly have to be held up from box 12 tho, and the lightly raced SUPERSTAR DJ who's having his first run at Wolves, but is a winner over a mile at Southwell

    both are down as 10/1 shots in probable SP for 5.55, and look as tho they can be both held up.

    Well Prepared is 11/4 paper jolly, but has a poor draw in box ten, and would perhaps be more at home over the extended Wolves 9f trip. Think Non Mollare - 9/2 in paper/prov SP - goes off favourite for this one

    website appears to be back working again



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    for 4.55 Windsor, pen landed on WATERLOO SUNSET 4/1 WIN. Far from a confident pick, but is a winner over slightly shorter on turf, albeit on better ground. not much soft ground runs to discount out of hand, and can't see any likely winners in this field



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    No luck in the 3 o'clock race, I should've gone with the other one, as usual 😅



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    yeah right - course ya would've, miss 😜

    onto more lodjical musings 😁😂


    5.00 Naas

    9 of the ten declared are due to go to post. only 2 have had a run, including the favourite Vanity Pays ~ 4/7. was a good fto run which saw the well-backed filly go off as 11/8 fav. finished 2nd that day at Fundalk. looks obvious/likely winner, but i think is underpriced. Paper has her as 8/11 shot, so layers taking no chances here

    Fran Berry reckons trainer of Time'll Tell told him last Saturday about his having a good newcomer out Monday - today; but wouldn't want much rain, so I'll discount that one of Andrew Kinsella

    have decided to have a go on Dandy Man Newcomer, TRAVEL CANDY 28/1 EW here. they (Dandy Man progeny) can go well fto, and also like soft/heavy going at sprint trips

    g'l



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    looks like yer Talap got up on line, j 😊

    not sure tho



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Talap is a winner winner chicken dinner 🍽️ and the icing on the cake is him beating HT ATR 2pt win tip ;)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    well beat Gannon Glory - wide draw deffo didn't help

    enough from me for today



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Sparkies won, blimey, that notebook is more often right than wrong, I knew it was stronger race for Harry this time but my observations for Sparkies were all based on AW impressions. Small profit for today to keep us going another day.

    10 suggestions for tomorrow in the notebook, sure I'm gonna go with the wrong ones 😅



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    good on ya j@utis 😊 nice "Davey Double" missus 🙌


    all told, twas a reet good shift ya put in @2day with dem 2 nice priced winners ya found 🙂 🙂 hope that other poster didna put ya off Sparks Fly - figured he had solid claims meself 😪 😋



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    interesting obbo on that 5,55 opener at Wolves tomorrow:



    Dave & Zoe Gillett Dew You Believe Apprentice Handicap (Class 6) 4-y-o plus of £6,500.00 . 1m. 142yds.

    1st - £3,402.00 2nd - £1,596.00 3rd - £798.00 4th - £399.00 5th - £199.00

    just clocked this

    Appleby (Mick) has a horse in the "Dew You Believe" Apprentice Handicap , what's called Dew You Believe: exact same spelling. Dew you Believe is owned by Mr D Gillett - presumably he's the Dave in the sponsoring duo of Dave & Zoe Gillett. doubt he (they) knew what draw his horse would get when deciding to cough up the prizemoney 😃

    don't say yiz were nae told 😃

    hard enough to fancy this two time course&distance winner however - is a horse that likes to go from, or close to, the front. is drawn in box nine, which won't make making all easy. has won one of his two CD victories from stall 10 of 13 when tracking leaders, but that was Classified Stakes affair.

    not one for me own shortlist mind

    😊



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    2,25 Epsom

    Johnny & Thady G have the prohibitively priced jolly, Epictetus 4/11, for this Epsom 10fs Listed race. Bred by Kingman, what don't scream out and out stayer to me, but he's a young enough Sire, so not much info (in me noggin 🤣) re good or bad at trips north of a mile

    has had a few winners - in recent times - over 10 & 12 furlongs in last three weeks, but those races mainly h'caps. the better the ground, the better chance the fav has, imo


    if at same or similar price tomorrow, i'll #consider laying him for win, and also laying for the 2 places


    just below him in betting are: STORMBUSTER ~11/2 from Balding yard, and Crisford's INTRICACY ~ 8/1. both of these are by Dubawi, who does well with middle-distance types, albeit are perhaps better with give in the ground.

    Going at Epsom is Good to Soft (good on 5f course) .

    #If it rains there, or course goes softer, and all prices are similar, i'll chance both the possible selections each way, and do the lays on the jolly also



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Morning.

    Wolves 7:25 Novice Event over 7f. One I was interested in became a non-runner (965), the other interesting one Pearly Star is drifting like crazy, so it's probably the best to leave it be...




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    That's very interesting, no bet for me in that mess though.

    In 6:25 Eight Mile is in my notebook but the inexperienced jockey put me off it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Nothing in 8 o'clock 2 miler either.

    I'm disappointing to see So Chic as short-ish favorite in 8:30. She met some traffic in kempton last time where she shaped like she can get a mile which is the trip today but she's not proven over it yet, also quite a few hdc newbies in this race too, so it would be e/w bet but the price isn't allowing it. I was on Equiami last time when he narrowly won in Southwell, he's going up the class today quite a bit but this is his only 3rd as start as 3 yo and he might be able to progress further. Native Beach has ran two good races this season too, winning the last one. Pearly Star (mentioned above) wasn't far behind him that day. So, overall it's a tricky one. I haven't decided yet either to get involved or not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    plenty of coin money coming for Appleby horse j - into ~ 11/2 nigh in Wol 5,55 !!

    Hannon's jolly (one of two Spencer mounts) looks very short in that 7.25 Novice affair - looks about a best-priced 10/11 (from ~6/4 earlier) shot now. not seeing it myself. don't know what wins it tho. maybe PEARLY STAR 20s each way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Intricacy a non-runner

    backed STORMBUSTER WIN @ 9/2 - no each way value there.. still two places, but too short in a tough race, where there seem to be three live contenders - prices notwithstanding

    going is now Soft (Heavy in places) - a marked difference in the Good to soft given on yesterday,, must have bucketed down last night in Surrey venue ! 😅

    anyroad, i think it leaves Gosden jolly well vulnerable (Epictetus is out to ~4/11 from 1/5) . M&CharlieJ's (well just Charlie nowadays) Galileo colt, Hadrianus, could make it a right stamina test i feel

    Crisford's is a non, so just the one pick here


    gl



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    So, finally I went with 0.5pt on Pearly Star 7:25Wolves in no fav market; risking with Equiami in 8:30 (I'll bet ya we'll see So Chic taking the prize and I'll be kicking myself as usual);

    Yarmouth 2:05 11 11; (3:15 Bear on the loose is interesting but not e/w material, so no go)

    Epsom 3:35 Sir Rumi - kept on well on soft ground before flopping in kempton, but we forgive him that.

    No time for write-ups, I have to get to go work (hate it, I wish I could retire, I mean I could, I could be a kept woman but do I want that?).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Good luck with your picks, leff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    ta missus - nice to give us threadstarter a shoutout 😊

    he's well happy ya give him a mention 😀

    leff he say: besta luck with yours an all , j@u!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    ask him if he'd kick ya to t'kerb if ya quit graftin' ??

    doing nothing for a (decent) living-lifestyle = no brainer to moi et leff, if we had l'optionne !!

    ya could always work part-time for peanuts to keep boredom at bay 🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    2,40 Yarmouth looks tricky affair - A Haynes & D French(sp?) Davis have two tasty looking newcomers

    went with another newcomer, CLUELESS EW, here - in hope,, not great price atm - was 40s earlier, but 16s will have to do

    not a lump job race that, unless ya know summat - which i don't 🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I can do what I please he says, but not working at all is no good either. I'm supposed to be a part timer but hours are lumped on, so I average 30-32hrs per week which is not that part time tbh...


    I'm staying out of sprint affairs as much I can this year and see how it goes. Last year most of my losses were in 5-6f races.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    do as ya please, j@u = good advice

    dinna listen to me tellin' ya to quit 🙂 no interest in working myself, but ~30hrs is practically fulltime gainful employment 😪

    think i've enough picks for today - Punchestown looks tough. will try avoid



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Soft ground at Epsom, Megan Nicholls reckons

    her mate Dixon reckons Soft - good to soft in places

    think they're basing they opinions on previous racetimes

    racecard has it as Soft (Good to soft in places)

    wonder where the 'Heavy' went?? mebbe the wind tightened that somewhat 🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    jolly too good - struck front inside 2pole, but Hadrianus closed gap late on. never really in doubt tho

    :(

    last my pick Stormbuster came :(



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    3rd :(

    Shayekh by a nose , but SIR BOLTON gets verdict in Stewards' room; didn't see race, so don't know what happened



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Hellavapace 12s ----------> 8s wins opener at Wolves... wouldn't have picked if i'd seven selections done there :(



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I have a winner in form of Sir Rumi, covers all my bets today with two more to go. Nothing from 11 11 in the opener in Yarmouth but Bear on the loose wins which I didn't back of course.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    WD with Sir Rumi j@u 😊 🙌

    followed ya in on EQUAMi - looks nice price @ ~ 7/1

    very nice price indeed - looks more a 4/1 shot to me 🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Equami nowhere

    can't judge horse on that effort tho 😒

    jockey tries to put hammer down on second last bend, just as the ones in front were at accelerating point 😃

    drift was right - today wasn't gonna be the day 😏

    not saying he'll go well next time, but formline deserves a line put thru it anyroad

    cursory glance @ 9,o'c race = waay2tricky

    :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Fristel were 'pagejumpa' when me looked at race,, only one i looked at, and he's no w/o a chance... yet yo win in 16 races - was punted on lto over CD, so will go win only on FRISTEL 6s in 9.00 Wolves

    be annoyed if he won unbacked by me 😋



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Fristel not good enough - finished mid-div

    dat's it 4 another day ☺️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    if i had a notebook (i do, but forgot where i left it haha 😂) the WINNER of the last race at Wolves (the well punted on SYMPATHISE in 9 o'c) would go intee it..

    reason being: if that jockey [Ms Ingram] can win on any horse, then said horse must have a bit up its sleeve 🙂

    formerly trained and part-owned by Karen George (now in sole Miss George ownership) ; Sympathise was having just her second run (from 5 in total) for her new/current trainer, Victor Dartnall, and came on the back of a much improved 2nd at Lingfield on her penultimate outing at end of last month



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Nothing good came out for me from Wolves this evening, I just got too adventurous I'm afraid, I'll review those races tomorrow morning and pick the Wednesday punts too. My head is better in the morning, especially before breakfast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    tryna make cases for MOUNT MOGAN & LUNA QUEEN, both 12/1 in 6.10 Lingfield tomorrow


    in 7.55 there I'M MABLE ~ 12/1 EW, is well drawn in stall 3, wasn't beaten far over CD lto, and is a winner from around this time last year.

    negatives: can be slow away , yet to win for new trainer , lto 6th was okay but only eight runners, and price don't seem overly generous

    the fav Sparked ~ 5/2 , can go close w/o winning perhaps, and might suffer a bit of interference. Jim Boyle's 4yo filly is CD winner from last Sept when settling in mid-div early doors, but there was plenty o' pace on that day to allow her travel smoothly from box 7 of 9. doesn't seem to be a massive amount o' pacey sorts in tomorrow's lineup



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Catterick - Good to soft-soft in places


    three what can go well each way in the first

    1.50

    GOLDEN GAL 6/1 . can go well after an absence. is CD winner from last August on mainly soft going, but had some "good" in description.

    BASHOLO 16/1. has an each way squeak. nothing obvious on formbook, but has last year's winning jock, Zak Wheatley(3) atop

    BIRDIE BOWERS 13/2 . came third lto on first trip to the course. was on heavyish going and time was slow, but showed liking for course anyhow. a good third (from poor looking draw) over the same trip at Hamilton last Sept, and on similar going, bolsters claims a tad


    all things being equal (similar/bigger prices, similar going) later, i'll likely have a lil on all three..

    ... on account I believe I can find reasons to rule out the majority of t'market principals 😁 :


    Tommytwohoots 3/1. think the 5yo's lto CD 2nd was his first ever run over 5fs on turf (mainly raced on AW tbf) . has had one other run over the minimum, and that was a poor showing where he finished 9th of 11 at Newcastle, in February gone. back to his most recent run; his most recent run at the course was on Heavy going, where he was staying on from off the pace. methinks frontrunners/close to pace running types generally fare better here

    Sir Benedict 7/2. whatever has Mrs Barclay's chestnut as 2nd/joint 2nd fav, I aint seeing it. another one what's mainly a hold-up merchant, the first of his three wins - and sole 5f win - , came way back in August '20 at Sandown - that was 2yo race and ran in a slow time. Ignore

    Dapper Man 4/1. admirable campaigner what's forgot more about winning than most of the rest of these put together - hyperbole and gibberish much 🙂 think Roger Fell's 9yo wants better going; either that or a sprint trip on soft - but at a sharper track than this one. am also not liking his low draw in box one.


    some stellar logic/reasoning there 😃


    will do us bets, going by the "all things equal" caveat (mentioned above) later this morn - after me get some shuteye - and will run rule over them once more, as me's a bit tired atm

    perhaps will go place-lays on some of the current top three market leaders what I've discounted above :)

    nite nd gd luck

    :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I promised to stay from sprint races, I know, but I have to change my mind for this one: 2:20 Catterick - Changeofmind 5/2 (just missed 11/4), he produced some record speeds on his debut win last year, GS ground will help the matters too, appearantly...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    done me three Catterick 1.50 each way picks.. going on racecard is given as the Good to Soft - soft in places - like what it was when me had first look at that race late last evening

    overnight favs drifting/at bigger prices, so wait'nsee re potential place-lays on that same race


    in Lingfield race, too many pace angles etc, in that 6.10. too early for that sorta headache 🙂

    I'm Mable 7.55 Ling into 15/2, so a bit short that one


    g'l me , j@u and all punters on heeh :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    6.10 Lingfield

    plenty of ones ya could take a stab at here, but I aint seeing why Buraback ~2/1 is dominating the market. this one is only a 4yo, but already has been in the care of multiple handlers. a CD alright from way back when (well, not that far back - seems like it, as it was close to 20 runs ago 😋) in March last year,,, was just eight runners then, and time was rather poor. perhaps it's the Oisin Murphy factor, but is a potential and likely place-lay for me

    went with MOUNT MOGAN there at big prices.. t'other one mentioned upthread, Luna Queen, is a bit short at ~ 8s, and tho she's a CD winner from a hold-up ride, that was only a seven runner affair; plus, despite the fact she's drawn widest in 13 (which could potentially suit a come from off the pace type) she was drawn in box three of seven in that CD victory - which were a few weeks ago. don't appeal at prices anyhow.

    Mount Mogan goes well at the course - but just the one win, which was a CD one. crucially, it was a Class4, and while he's been out of sorts lately, last two runs were an improved showing than the few preceding them, and he's dropping down hcap as well. is capable of going well at ~ 28/1



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I picked another two to keep myself entertained throughout the day: 4:30 Catt - Milbanke 5/1 seems to be on the up, if ready after a break and handling the ground (a lot of ifs...) and 6:45 Lingers - Windsor Pass 3/1 if Granary Queen is there again for minor places money only (she's gone up the weights without winning, she's good great finishing speed which is handy in big fields, but this is 6 runner affair).

    GL. Have fun.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    will check them out j@u 😊

    if we go on her two Wolves runnings, TIGER BAY 10s can go well in Lingfield 5.40. might've been ~14s an hour or so ago, but paper has her at 7s; plus there's been a withdrawal since then I think (market was 'suspended' when I checked ~1/2 hr or so, ago, but I think that the nr was already a non-runner) go each way on Henry Candy filly in hope at a decentish looking price

    2nd fav Inverlochy has seen some money, but don't appeal at ~13/8

    not seeing why fav is seeing so much coin. not much to beat perhaps, but I think Bell Song should be bigger than her current best price of ~6/5. look at this one as another place-lay possibility. not beat far lto, and was marginally unlucky, but a 3rd over 7furlongs at Soutwell is mehhish form for me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    I concur re @Granary Queen , j@u . horses no's 4, 5 & 6 in that Lingfield 6.45 are potential pacesetters, but with only six going, it could be trappy affair. race may not be ran to suit the Johnson Houghton 13/8 fav - what looks ike a holdup job. looks short enough as well

    no strong opinion on your Butler horse selection there - yet to win, but has only had the one run in Blighty,,, which was a very very respectable 2nd at Newcastle over a furlong shorter.. well, a reasonably strong opinion i suppose come ta think of it ! be rude not to back WINDSOR PASS at the 3s on offer 😛



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    had a look at your MILBANKE j@utis , and first thing me noticed was the GOING - good to soft now; was good to soft - soft in places earlier 😴

    hope it don't affect me picks in race one too much 😕 can't remember me logic re the whole field really - vees a vee la goinge 😪

    looks right tricky race. thing with ur pick is he can't really be ruled out - which is always good.

    best of luck with him. looks awks race to solve, so i'll no try

    nice day out there - hope ur enjoying the weather. if i weren't a recluse living in built-up area, i'd make a shape to out and get some sun 😁



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