Sunday 13th March 2022

3.55 Warwick

3m 5f 54yds of thrills n spills in This Class 3 Join Racing TV Now Handicap Chase

thoughts:

The Newest One best price 4s and 10/3 gen is topweight here,, Could well be the best of these, but is short enough and has plenty of weight on his back,, ran a few good races in Class 4s @ ~ 3m, but it's his lto run where he didn't fare so well in a Class3 makes me want to oppose him.

Boughtbeforelunch did nae really stay this trip when he tackled it last May at Fakenham,, otherwise, his recent form is fairly good,, can't back them all, and @ ~ 5/1 it's enough for me to be looking elsewhere.

Vinnie Dev ~ 7/1 was a good 2nd lto over an almost identical trip, but that was on heavy (gd to soft - soft in places is going description atm, but more rain (?) could well change that) , and, on likely better ground, I don't want to be with him, although he does have the joint lowest weight here,,

3 each way picks:

SHANTY ALLEY 7/1 gen

Am liking his run at Doncaster in January of last year in the context of tomorrow's race,, A 'P' and a 'U' in his latest two efforts is a bit of a concern tho,,

CUBAN PETE 13/2 gen

His last run which saw him staying on over ~ 4f shorter at Hereford would give him claims here,, if it weren't for that sole piece of form, i wouldn't consider him as he'd shown very little in several of his recent outings before that run, which was in a Veterans' Handicap,,

VOLCANO 9/2 gen

won this last year off a stone higher rating,, would be a fool not to include him on that basis,, recent form aint great, but he's only eight,,

Too many in this that can't really be ruled out,, i just want to back a winner is all, and not too worried or expectant of making much of a profit - if any,,, small stakes only,, The fact that many of these have never went this far before, as is often the case in these long distance h'cap chases, is always a reason to be possibly cheerful 🤗

gluck all

SonOfGoat

1.35 Warwick, pilsdon pen, around 5/4 or lower. Can't see it winning and max stakes here for me. Horse loves Huntington but this is different and race will be run different. Max stakes lay bet, can't see it winning.

1.45 naas pont du gard, quite high enough to lay but I have the horse prices 7/1 plus. I'll lay at 3/1 and see if I can lay lower in running.

2.20 naas slip of the tongue, around 7/4. I'm backing this to win. Won good race lto and still improving, win bet.

2.38 Bangor, wouldubewell, around 6/4. I've backed this to win. Horse is consistent, jumps well and distance will suit. Solid i win bet.

AhFrayedKnot

2.08 chazza 11/2

4.40 Stormy judge 7/1

Reidy

Il put this up in here as I won't be around during the week. A mare runs on Tuesday at southwell in the first race and she is yet to win after 18 tries but this is her big chance to lose her maiden tag with a 5lb claimer well capable of getting her home. City Escape.

SonOfGoat

Few minor bets to finish off the day.

3.55 Warwick, vinnie dev, around 5/1 on the exchange. I think this is a cracking e.w bet and is over priced. Seems the horse has come into itself since November/December and they had the feelers out re distance. I think it'll go close today and hopefully win.

3.40 Limerick, iridescent, around 5/2,lay bet, confident it won't win.

3.48 Bangor, gamesters icon, around 2/1. Again, lay bet, just can't for the life of me see it winning.

SonOfGoat

4.05 naas, Jeremys flame, around 5/6. Win bet here, nothing to note in the race and has to win really.

That's my lot.