Alan Kelly stepping down

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732760#Comment_118732760

This'll be the second coronation in recent years

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732760#Comment_118732760

Respect the labour grass roots for hanging in there. The decision makers are the problem. While Ivana is the only candidate, great *slow hand clap*

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732719#Comment_118732719

I don’t disagree with you, and the restriction to certain third level institutions, excluding the TUs, is problematic also, but we did have a referendum on the Seanad in recent years, and we collectively voted to keep it.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732712#Comment_118732712

It’s not my party, but you’re going to get dizzy from shifting the goalposts like that.

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118728245#Comment_118728245

Not at all.

In fact I'm quite looking forward to watching her crash and burn

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732941#Comment_118732941

Sir, you've spent two whole days singing the praises of a very mediocre politician who is going to be leader of an extremely mediocre political party, no one who isn't a member of said party would be taking on allcomers like you've done.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732956#Comment_118732956

Wrong again, I’m not a party member, and I’m not sure that Bacik would be the right leader. If people want criticise her based on the facts, then fire ahead. If they want to make up sh1t, I’ll continue to take them on.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118733029#Comment_118733029

All I said was she was unlikely to be re-elected in Dublin Bay South. Remember the Labour logo in the by-election posters was as small as an FF candidates logo in 2011.

One trick donkey,imo

FrancieBrady

They'll make Ivana the new leader, stagnate some more and maybe then decide they need to completely revamp. Maybe.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118733047#Comment_118733047

It will be a very tough battle in DBS for sure, not sure that anyone of the incumbents is safe. Anything could happen, but it is too soon to be making predictions,

Im not sure that she’s the right leader for Labour, and I’m not sure that taking the leadership now is the right thing for her.

TaurenDruid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732936#Comment_118732936

We also had a referendum - that was passed - that said that all third-level institutions should be represented equally in the Seanad, but 40 years later, that little bit of democracy has still been nicely ignored.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118738324#Comment_118738324

True, though that’s no particular reflection on Bacik.

TaurenDruid

On Bacik, her acclamation as leader won't make any difference to Labour, one way or the other - as borne out in today's Sindo poll. 21% less likely to vote for Labour with her as leader, 17% more likely (or maybe it's the other way around). When your party is at 3% in the polls, 4% of 3% is a rounding error.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739206#Comment_118739206

No, it's a reflection on every party that's been in government since 1979 for failing to implement the democratically mandated will of the people. Which would include Labour. And you'd think maybe the Dublin University and NUI senators, recognising their privilege, might have brought it up over the years? Once or twice, like.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739959#Comment_118739959

Are you sure that they never brought it up? Once or twice like?

Blut2

Bacik is the massive favourite with the bookies but shes an awful choice. She'll move Labour further towards the urban, middle class, very socially liberal demographic thats her base. Which is limited in numbers around the country to begin with, but is also already heavily competed for by the SocDems and Greens.

What remains of Labour's traditional working class vote is going to evaporate under her. SF will be delighted, they'll be the ones who gain most from a Bacik leadership.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118740119#Comment_118740119

She'll move Labour further towards the urban, middle class, very socially liberal demographic thats her base. Which is limited in numbers around the country to begin with, but is also already heavily competed for by the SocDems and Greens.

Yes but Labour under Bacik (less so under Kelly, though he tried) can plausibly compete with the Greens and Soc Dems on that turf, and maybe even best them. Whereas going head to head with SF at present as the party of the angry working classes can only end in failure and ridicule. Remember Labour are not realistically looking to return to Gilmore Gale days at the next election, they are battling for survival, and holding 4 or 5 seats (about 3% of total Dail seats) would be a very decent return. And IMO going ultra-woke under Bacik might do just enough to secure them that.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118740314#Comment_118740314

A lot of the ultra-woke are likely not registered to vote

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118740314#Comment_118740314

That turf isn't big enough to be worth competing with two other, more established, parties for. There are at absolute most 10 urban, socially liberal seats of that nature in the entire country. And the two other parties both have significantly stronger claims to it - the SocDems are a lot more woke, diverse, and young, and the Greens have the environmentalism/climate change drive. Labour chasing it will involve them losing more voters than they'll gain.

Bacik isn't even remotely secure in her own seat with that policy platform, in the most socially liberal constituency in the country. Dublin Bay South has 4 TDs - one will be safe SF, one safe FG. Then the remaining two will be split between Bacik, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118741233#Comment_118741233

I wouldn't be sure that Andrews would be all that safe at all there. He seems to have zero national profile. What was the last time you heard him on RTE or Newstalk as the SF rep. I've never seen any sign of him doing a public meeting or even getting uppity about Sandymount cycle route or similar. He seems to have kept a remarkably low profile. Of the incumbents, I'd say O'Callaghan is probably the safest, given his profile, with Bacik, Ryan, FG, Andrews all fighting for the remaining seats, which could go any direction.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118741283#Comment_118741283

Andrews was comfortably elected in 2020 and SF have risen from 24%~ of the vote then to polling at 33-34% consistently now. People like Violet-Anne Wynne getting elected show that a lot of SF voters just vote for the brand name, they don't actually care about the TD in question that much.

Its very, very unlikely that Andrews doesn't get elected in the next election if SF's polling numbers hold up - nevermind if they keep increasing, as they have done for the last few years. If SF hit 40%+ in the polls its more likely SF get two seats than zero.

Augme

I don't think Bacik is a particular strong candidate as a party lesder but the biggest problem for labour is that she is the best choice.

Someone mentioned earlier that Labour best chance is to compete with the Soc Dems and Greens and possible best them. I don't think they have any chance of doing that given the current state of quality of Labour politicians. They have very few politicians that stand out or will generate alot support.

AlekSmart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118732780#Comment_118732780

It's a long time ago now,but there was a time when The Labour Party did in fact resonate with "Ordinary People" and at least some of it's leaders fought a good fight for those "Ordinary People"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Cluskey

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118742092#Comment_118742092

Agree. They need to ditch the academic type new Labour shite and get back to relating to the working public. Thats why Bacik is a bad pick IMO.

RandomViewer

New party name would be needed,

No Manual Labour doesn't really have a great ring to it

TaurenDruid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739979#Comment_118739979

If they did, it was likely while clutching their pearls in a "Won't someone think of the northsiders' children out there in... DCU? Yes, DCU!" way, because 40+ **** years after the referendum, it's still not been acted on. If any of them were serious about it, it would have been very easy to embarrass the government into doing something about it. A PQ every two months. A "Really, Minister?" evisceration of Dermot Ahern when he introduced the crime of blasphemy to the statute books "because it's in the constitution and people voted for the constitution so we have to act on that..." Something? Anything?

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743330#Comment_118743330

I don’t disagree, but i has never gotten any serious public momentum.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118731776#Comment_118731776

Perhaps it means that one should respect one's betters especially if they attended Trinners. :) It is the kind of forelock tugging that is rarely seen these days.

Regards...jmcc

Cyclingtourist

All this talk about Labour and the working-class is hs. They've been the party of the urban liberals since the '70s, the days of Conor Cruise O'B and David Thornley.

Was listening to Bacik on the radio at lunch time, she's Thornley without the problems that unfortunate individual had. Big improvement communications skills-wise on AK.

hotmail.com

It's likely people are already on the verge of leaving the party.

Ivana never even truly identified as Labour unless she was fighting fighting a seat in the Dail.

Bizarre that Labour have got into a position of electing someone like Bacik.

RandomViewer

Have they all gone to join the Russian army or what? 12 days and not a whimper