Wednesday 2nd March 2022

12.30 Lingfield

Am thinking of backing Lake Sand here.. up to 10fs, which is a distance he's flopped at previously (over C & D Dec 2020) ,, been running okay as of late,, would have an each way squeak here,, can't rule him out staying here,, ~ 14s on 'probable sp' and that looks fair

not had a proper look yet,, have a feeling someone fancies summit for tomorrow,, plz chuck em up 😋

Morning all 😊

A tried and trusted (though not always profitable) method of picking winners is what I am employing in my opening razzia against t'layers,, method is simple : back loads in the one race 😃

shall try that method in in 3.40 Wincanton,, a race once mentioned by none other than Frank butcher in Eastenders once upon a time, when many tuned in, so for all fans of Eastenders (when it were worth watching) and punters alike; let us hope to win some winnings ere ! 😃 "Ahlwoight?"

plans could be scuppered if ~ 15/8 jolly Alberic wins, but will hope the soft to heavy going, as well as his first go over fences, will put paid to his chances here.. should he win, then I'll be 😓

will hope Hobbs' five year old won't, and that one of these can:

EROS 11/2 gen win

Last run over shorter were decent,, should act on heavy, will be a slight '?' over whether he stays.

DONT BE ROBIN 12/1 PP ew

A winner over this trip. Goes well on soft,, 10yr old a bit out of form tho..

BROUGHTONS RHYTHM 12/1 PP ew

13yr old who would have a chance if he can recapture some of the form he had when he was with Ollie Sherwood.

ANUAS AR AN BPOST 13/2 PP ew

Don't know why I'm including this fella,, guess I'd be annoyed if I didn't pick him and he won,, his sire Elusive Pimpernel has had a winner recently on heavy in Eire.

FITZ THE BRIEF 18/1 gen ew

Am hoping he likes his first ever go on soft-heavy going..

A lot there, and profit potential is calced at ~ 30% only,, so be wary of getting too involved.. Do it for the craic and the hwyl - or don't 😋 don't make me no nevermind irregardless

GL

j@utis

That's some fancy schmancy card in Kempton tonight with two class 2 races and good few others above the bottom ground level of 6. So, all nags have gone to Lingers - class 6 across the board 🤣 I haven't looked at anything yet, will do that shortly.

GL with your racing system, leff! I defo don't have big enough balance in my paddy's account to do that 🤣

Ta j@u 😊 let us hope ur PP a/c gets an increase in the plus side anon,, had a look at Kemmers and so far my only selection is that Epsom Faithfull cannae win,, was hoping he'd be fav so I could have him as a lay, but at 9/2 he's not a lay price,,

lot of them races look v tricky - not a big fan o novice stakes/maiden type races, nor indeed Class 2 & 3 'andicaps in general.. might find a pick in one of t'last two races,,

didn't bother doing Lake Sand in 12.30 Lingers,, short enough @ ~15/2, plus staying is a worry too

2 outsider picks,, 25c or 50c ew max for t'lols

2.10 HEY HO LET'S GO 15/2,, must have been supported,, hardly an 'outsider' price

3.20 NOZIERES 50s gen ,, bigger online

j@utis

Hugh Taylor ATR tipped Hey Ho... in 2:10 lingers, hence the price drop. I can't find anything exciting past the favorite in that race. Mick's Spirit has been ultra consistent lately and has won of this mark over CD before, jockey's strike rate here is a bit worrying, she rode 1 winner in last 12 months but her 3lb claim kinda offsets that in this case and she got good tune out of him in wolves a month ago. But he's so short now, not even 2/1 and we don't like that here.

In the same 2:10 lingers, did you see, Kodiak Attack 10/1 was supposed to be favorite according to the betting forecast. he's won three races over 5f and come close 2nd in wolves just before the break. He might go close if race ready.

SonOfGoat

1.55 Wincanton, last royal, currently around 5/6 which I still think is great value. I've backed this to win and bigger odds but as I said, the current price is nice too. The horse should be 1/3 in my opinion and should win easily.

In the 1.45 at Wetherby I've actually layed the short price fav loughderg rocco which is currently around 4/11.

Couple more lined up.

think Equally Fast ~ 28/1 may be worth a speculative 50C/€ win in 2.10,, drawn low and is a former C & D winner,, 2nd run after a layoff

j@utis

Mickey does the business in 2:10, returned 9/4 at the end. Lack of support for Kodiak reflected his finishing position 9/9. Good call on Equally Fast there, leff, 50c e/w would have paid out a few yoyo's 🤣

SonOfGoat

Would have been Interesting if that horse wouldn't have pulled up in the 1.45. Didn't look like there was anything wrong with it...

Last bet of the day

2.45 Lingfield, wooders dream. Around 5/4 after a massive drift. I'm backing to win now. I purposely held off due to a few getting backed in the race. In my opinion wooders dream will win handily. Beaten a neck lto when should have won if the jockey shepherd would have kicked for home earlier. The money was down that day and they will be out to recover. Hollie doyle riding today and should get the job done.

Pity ya didn't do him j@u ,, or maybe ya did 😄

alas leff wasn't swayed enough to leave house to back the second there :( had the spinner going anyhoo, so thought best stay indoors just in case 😋

j@utis

ya, I did when I noticed a drift, took 2/1. Wooders Dream looked good in 2:45 lingers, suprised about the drift there though, I didn't get on that one. I gotta find one good in Kempton now, and that'll be it for the day.

WD on him j@u ! 9/4 a good price,, wins cosy but the 2nd might have made a race of it if he weren't runnin all over the place, and into others as well,,, all academia now but 😃 indeed yep, had a look at his form, and Wooders Dream could easily have been backed at 3/1 - 11/4 for that race,, would have probably overlooked him at the probable sp of 11/8 tho,,

left off looking at that race anyroad, so whatarm? 😋

gluck in ur Kempton find a winner quest,, have enough meself.. nd probably won't even go down shoppe to watch one race I'm heavily invested in 🤗

ETA Wooders Dream never available at those prices,, think 2/1 - 9/4 was the biggest he went, even that would be short enuf,, he loses anyhoo.. half asleep today me !

j@utis

My cogs aren't turning proper today I keep finding myself drifting off to Facebook from the form study... Still see nothing in Kemptom, so I rather get out to the shop get some milk (get some fresh air in and enjoy a nice walk in this weather).

wouldn't be at all surprised if Soar Above goes well in 7.30,, best priced 11/2 PP and they're not giving a lot away as far as value goes with that price,, ( if I was having a very good day 😋 ) , i'd be havin a few yoyos on, but he's far from one to have maximum faith in,, will have to be on his game, will John Butler's horse, to go well in a Class 3..

the 8.30 Kempton has the look of a race that is meritorious of closer inspection 😋 tis all noggin dependant tho atm, and whether a feller finds himself suitably motivated !

2 of my 4 ew (out of 5 total picks 😋) place in top 4 in 3.40, at 18/1 (Dont Be Robin 4th) and 15/2 (Anuas Ar An Bpost) 3rd,,, at least it was fav what won, and not an outsider 😃,,, so losses not too bad there,, maybe tis a sign: "you've had enough for today... there be more opportunities in coming wks and days, so tek it conny for a biteen" 😂

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720569#Comment_118720569

Lol, I was looking at the same horse earlier. What puts me off is that his class 3 win was on turf not on the aw.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118720980#Comment_118720980

it were his win over C & D a while back in a Class 4, if memory serves (Dec 2020 - just looked at it now), that I thought a replication of would give him a decidedly good chance in 7.30,, this a tricky Class 3 tho, and ya never know with that particular trainer 🙂 Still, the horse is a 'working man's (or womanperson's 😆) price' , if not altogether a 'value' one :)

hope ya enjoyed yer walk anyroad j@u and got a good sup a milk while ya were at it 😊 mug a tea or coffee does be paramount ! gl in finding ones for Kempton

last thought for a while:

8.30 Kempton looks impossible,,, pick three horses and try to get two of them finish in the top three => looks like a twenty to one shot that..

will side with How Hard Can It Be - an apt name possibly? 🙂 good e/w claims in this,,, She won over a furlong shorter lto at the course and can be backed at 11/2 PP... that's sound form, and she's the only one that looks to be a bettin proposition at the available odds.. (unexposed) horses going up in trip, former C & D winners, track position etc, etc,,, i'm calling it a lotto... others may differ however and be able to find a live one or two 😊 that's a good type of diversity imo - diversity of opinions on a sporting outcome, and all opinions welcome!

j@utis

Ok, I'm convinced about Soar Above chances in 7:30 based on many ??? on others' form. GL. Now onto 8:30.

Soar Above only 5th ,, no harm here as had no bet,

one horse I thought couldn't really win, Epsom Faithfull, only goes and does just that... 😪

j@utis

It's unusually hot affair for class 6 that 8:30 in Kempton. Many with chances but I'm veering towards the favorite again, he won like a boss last time in Lingers and should be thereabouts if handling extra 2f.

Some good ones in it for t'grade a'ight,,, must bode well for the quality on show in this Class 6, when last year's winner Merweb is ~ 40/1 ... could make sound cases for two thirds of the field,, still mightn't win 🤣

GL with your pick j@u ,, nothing doing meself in this

j@utis

I didn't go with it at the end, I was surprised by that outsider too.

hard luck there j@u 😟 just saw result ,, ur jolly won nd you were no on,, tis a bummer tbs 😭

last 2 days for me, that were mediocre at best and poor at worst,, not easy at times.. Monday seems a long time ago now 😢 😃

j@utis

meh to that, that's all I have to say, won easily at the end.

t'philosophical approach j@u 😃

onwards! 2moro's thread in pipeline you'll be glad to hear