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DF Commission Report

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    As ever, its not really about money, its about capacity. Capacity to effectively spend a budget increased by several factors.

    The government could announce a 3.5bn defence budget in October, but in practical terms it would make no appreciable difference for a long time, because the structures, expertise and number of bodies to enact it productively simply aren't there.

    Thats not an excuse for it by the way, the legislative moves on reformed command and control is taking far too long, and thats a necessary first step in all the above.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    without question the idea of ramping up to something like today isn’t on the cards for the reasons you have said, however nobody should be saying that it’s a flat out impossibility long term…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,223 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 394 ✭✭vswr




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Going by the famous plan we are due in Q4 to put in orders for a lot of new hardware from Helicopters to Radar. Since the government have had the realization that they do no have to tender for defence & Security will we see a lot of press releases in october for orders of armour, Helicopters & Radar?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Thats not a blanket exception. It doesn't work like that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    With the Budget in under 4 weeks i would say we will see some signficant equipment purchases annoucened either in the budget or a few days beforehand espcially with the extra helicopters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    bet on nothing, then at least you can avoid disappointment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Have faith the government would not let the defence forces down ever.

    We even have heavy lift aircraft lined up in a few weeks to bring gear to germany for the EUBG its just its not our heavy lift.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-troops-begin-exercise-in-meath-ahead-of-decisive-eu-battlegroup-deployment-6485004-Sep2024/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    why change a habit of the entire states history (which to be fair does make me laugh at the current complaints, it’s not like it’s a new departure from history to starve the DF), if orders were within a month or so of happening leaks would be pissing the info by now imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    I wonder what the heavy lifters will be taking as it would just be as easy to ship the mowags to germany rather than fly them?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Could just be they want the practice like we've seen French A400s doing overflights.



  • Registered Users Posts: 257 ✭✭mupper2


    If I could err on the side of extremely cautious optimism…they did kinda start "leaking" a few weeks back with the talk of negotiating with 30 other countries and getting deals over the line by the end of the year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    hey, I’ll cheer with everyone if we see something concrete in regards to any capital or current investment in the DF ahead of inflation, if that includes big ticket items fantastic. I’m just thinking that if we were getting close to dropping 300 million for the EPV, or for the primary radar sets then we would be seeing a bit more attention, or at least not having the junior minister slapped down for suggesting LoA3.


    As ever we are in a waiting game.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    Well…with a 13 billion euro windfall in their arse pocket, there's no excuse now for the government to not be spending BIG on a massive revamp of the DF....to include fighter jets and a couple of frigates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Ill roll the dice and say we will see a direct government to government order with germany in the next few weeks for new irish state equipment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Course there is, its called "getting reelected", the majority of the money is going to go into another attempt to magically increase housing stock while trying to ignore the elephant in the room. Besides which it takes more than just buying the hardware, even with wait times we couldn't use any of that in the next five years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Why Germany, and what do you think would be ordered?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 394 ✭✭vswr




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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    I’m sure the neighbours at the Glen would love them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 257 ✭✭mupper2




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    I like the look of that unmanned recon.chopper that the RN are bringing into service just now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    The Commission report states Extra Helicopters not saying what size.

    The EC135s are touching 20 years old ( rebuild inculded)

    AGS are getting H145 and may need a second as what happens when the new one is been serviced.

    Than between the UK & US air corps crew are been trained on versions of the H145. Airbus Germany are able to delivery very quickly as well.

    So could easily see the state doing a overall package to buy H145s for both air corps and AGS together.

    We will see in a few weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    The budget next week will we see leaks in the sunday papers of major purchases?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Nope but they can say at the european meeting we are starting to take defence serious!

    The bigger problem for them is since we have no radar for the armys SAM system anymore how are they going to look after Point Defence in 2026 when we hold the EU presdency?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    same way we do the rest of defence… get someone else to do it, ideally without charging. There’s nothing like the anti drone systems for the euros like we saw in Paris for the Olympics either and no urgency about that, not too mention the imminent evacuation needs….

    At this stage saying we might spend even LoA3 levels is just going to get laughed at.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    I mean lets be honest, when the Part Time Minister is throwing out this level of BS, is there any reasonable chance of significant change? I mean what exactly would he call it?

    https://www.newstalk.com/news/ireland-doesnt-freeload-off-other-countries-during-military-evacuations-martin-1758486



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Its not disingenuous, its a completely accurate characterisation of the actuality.

    That we may or may not pay for it is incidental.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    I hear thinhs have changed slightly as power in the EU moves East the irish government staff are getting a lot of grief in Brussells that we are not pulling our weight.

    Another interesting commision outcome apperently norway is a country we are looking at as a model for the Defence Forces



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Yeah, for me the Government is still going to hide behind the Treaty Opt Outs along with the lack of political cost domestically to do as little as possible. I mean even if we had an incident like the recent shooting at a fishing ship by the Russians, I doubt it would have any repercussions.

    Not sure why we would be looking at as a model would be Norway, we don't have anything like the Sovereign Wealth Fund backing them, nor Conscription (lets not have that argument again). Adopting a Nordic model isn't likely, outside any PR statement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    I dont think they are looking at F35s or Subs!

    I would say its along there structure line with command and control for the defence forces new CHoD and the seperate forces such as army, Navy, Air Force, Sof and Cyber.

    The Army Design seams to be delayed a bit which will have a knock on effect on the new Armour and bases as you cant really order new Apcs unless you know howmany and what structure they fit in to.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    None of which will matter to anyone outside of Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    I see in an  Cosantóir they are saying the mowags will be replaced by new armour as they come to natural end of life. But the mowags have only last year finshed there mid life upgrade or are the mowags like the P60s coming to the natural end a lot quicker than orginally planned?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    In neither case is there any speculation about when that natural life end point shall be. Because, lets face it, even DoD have no clue.

    The plan for new and more rugged armour is not news, but realistically the Mowags will be in the inventory for the remainder of this decade and probably the support versions until 2035.

    Is there any evidence that the Becketts will be withdrawn sooner than programmed life? I mean there's absolutely no question we'll see 40 years out of any current hulls, those days are gone, but the 60s are only between 5 and 10 years in service as we speak, is there any question that they cannot do the job for which they were designed in the first place, ie non war-fighting fishery protection EEZ patrolling and maritime patrol against criminality?

    They are meant to receive a proper sonar suite as part ot CoDF adoption, they will surely form the backbone of the Navy even as the MRV and probably some more robust replacements for the P50s are procured.



  • Registered Users Posts: 257 ✭✭mupper2


    Something to keep in mind is the first Mowag batch were ordered in 99 and delivered from 2001 so a start of 2027/28 to start replacing them would seem logical. Countries that bought similar ones after us are replacing theirs now…just showing their age/lack of room to improve them beyond what we did for the "mid life upgrade".



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,063 ✭✭✭sparky42


    And given our usual rate of defence related procurement, if we want something by the 2030's a program is going to have to start soon enough so it can sit and wait for years until its finally ordered…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    So tomorrow in the Budget my guess is.

    MRV Contract.

    Funds for East Coast Naval Base.

    H145s as the additional helicopters

    Primary Radar contract for the Air Corps despite the Armys best efforts it should be operated by them.

    Funds for upgrade of Custume barracks for the new Army HQ.

    Cant see huge amount of extra funds for the Army as the new Army Design is behind and you should not be buying equipment when you dont know what shape the army is planning to look like.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Thats not the way it works. The annual budget to be delivered tomorrow covers, in the main, current expenditure.

    So, payroll, ammo, fuel, maintenance items, consumables, recruitment, training, deployment overheads, agency contracts etc.

    All of those items you mention are from the capital programme, and are well covered for funding. The barriers to delivery of them all relate to capacity within the DF and the DOD to onboard them, ie, there isn't any capacity.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Good News for the Army troops have been withdrawn from portlaoise and shortly from IIE in enfield.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-army-end-armed-protection-for-portlaoise-prison-after-50-years-6503900-Oct2024/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    I wonder how many that frees up for other duties?



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,574 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Certainly doesn't hurt. The explosives manufacturing facility is losing Army protection as well.

    I wonder if they have to hire private security to replace them. Might affect their bottom line.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    I'm not so sure it's a good idea to withdraw army protection from the explosives plant….Any idea what they make there? 155mm shells, Missiles?



  • Registered Users Posts: 257 ✭✭mupper2


    Commercial explosives, mining, engineering etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Thats it they will just get security company to man the gate like most companys. Besides the IIE plant as it known to the older posters or kemex to the younger ones havent produced sticks in a long time. Its all emulsion now which is mixed on the work site.

    If some one is going to rob the plant best of luck to them as it will take some effort getting the right mix together. The local detective units and ASU units will just do more patrols in the area.

    This action should free up at least 100 personal. The defence forces now just have to get rid of the other areas where they are doing security detail.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,970 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    A colleague of mine who works sometimes with the Defence Forces told me yesterday that the new command and control system in the revamped defence forces has broken out in to all out Civil War over whos going to be in Control.

    So this works perfect for the DOD/Goverment as they now have an excuse for not getting the Commisions report done quicker.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Not surprising.

    But they should remember, the government will be the ones in control. And the Chief of Defence and Vice Chiefs only allegiance will be to that government and to the strategic management of all three services as an integrated force.

    The Army were always bound to get pissy that the Air Corps (Force) and Naval Service (Navy) were going to be put on a par with them in every respect. They may get their engineers to build them a bridge and get over it.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,574 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    This the thing about putting the Chief of Staff in the chain of command?

    We don't do that in the US, I'm not entirely sure what problem they were trying to fix.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You do though, don't you?

    Don't the US Army, Air Force and Navy all have service chiefs (chief of staff and chief of naval ops respectively) that are each military head of branch and also on the council of Joint Chiefs of Staff?

    In the Irish case, the CHoD (with A/CHoD) will head the strategic effort and also head a DFHQ with a Vice CHoD who will also be joint forces commander and immediate superior to the three service chiefs. This parity of esteem will be vital in culture change, I believe.

    At the end of the day, everyone is in some sort of chain of command, even if that is the political head of government.



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