Technical / Discussion Tropical Cyclones 2021-2022
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26-01-2022 8:32pm#1
This cyclonic season has been very late but now it does look favourable for 96s to intensify over the next few days.
The 96S system intensified into a Tropical Depression.
☑️Position at 4:00 p.m.: 14.69° S, 85.78° E ☑️Atmospheric pressure: 1000 hpa ☑️Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
☑️ Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
☑️Distance from Rodrigues: About 2432 km East-North-East
☑️ Distance from Mauritius: About 3015 km East-North-East
☑️ Movement: West-South-West, at 26 km / h. Intensity forecast: The system gradually finds itself in better conditions as it intensifies. The Moderate Tropical Storm stage will be reached by tomorrow afternoon. It will then be baptized BATSIRAI. Trajectory forecasts, based on current analyses: The presence of the anticyclone to the south of the system directs it towards a general direction of the West-South-West. On this trajectory, the system is dangerously approaching the Mascarenes while intensifying.
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Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI was moving at 4:00 p.m. (Monday 31) towards the southwest at a speed of 17 km/h and was positioned around point 16.2 South / 63 East, 940 km east-northeast of the Reunion coast.
MAURITIUS IS ON ALERT LEVEL 1...
The pressure at its center was estimated at 973 hPa and the average maximum wind speed over 10 minutes was around 130 km/h with sea gusts of 183 km/h...
BATSIRAI remains at the stage of Cyclone Tropical but "inside" this classification, its intensity can fluctuate with average winds at sea over 10 minutes between 117 km/h and 165 km/h...
These fluctuations are due, among other things, to vertical wind shear more or less present and it results on the microwave imagesan eye that appears, disappears or becomes shapeless... (morphing over the last 24 hours: MIMIC - help )
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🌀 BATSIRAI IS ABOUT 300 KMS FROM GRAND GAUBE, MAURITIUS; INTENSIFIED TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TRAVELLING AT AN ACCELERATED SPEED OF 22 KM/H
⚠️ DIRECT THREAT FOR MAURITIUS & REUNION ISLAND ⚠️
[A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS]
Information about BATSIRAI @ 22Hr00 on 1st February 2022:
Date: 01 February 2021
Time: 22Hr00 Mauritius/Réunion
Status: Intense Tropical Cyclone
Atmospheric pressure: 975 hpa
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) sustained: 165 km/h
Maximum wind gusts: 230 km/h
Position: 17.7 South / 59.0 East
Distance from Mauritius: Around 300km to the Grand Gaube
Distance from Reunion: Around 500 km to the North-East
Travel: West-South-West, at 22 km/h
BATSIRAI is a dangerous Intense Tropical Cyclone that continues to approach Mauritius and Reunion Island and represents a direct threat for these islands.
BATSIRAI is now moving north of the Mascarenes. It confirms a move in a general West-South-West direction, bringing it a little more directly closer to Mauritius and Reunion. Its intensification has resumed and classifies it as an intense tropical cyclone.
BATSIRAI therefore has the potential for a very dangerous system in the immediate vicinity of the islands. It should pass as close as possible to the North of Mauritius on Wednesday at nearly 170 km (Pointe Aux Canonniers) at about 13Hr00 then to the North of Reunion, probably during the night from Wednesday to Thursday at nearly 180km.
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A cyclone warning class IV is in force in Mauritius
At 09.30 hours, intense tropical cyclone Batsirai was centred at about 170 km north of Mauritius in latitude 18.4 degrees South and longitude 57.7 degrees East. It is moving towards the south-west at about 18 km/h and continues to approach the Island. The weather is likely to deteriorate further.
Cyclonic conditions are now prevailing in Mauritius. Some of the highest gusts recorded are as follows:
Champ de Mars : 133 km/h
Domaine des Pailles: 119 km/h
Riviere Noire: 108 km/h
Grand Bassin: 108 km/h
Le Morne:115 Km/h
Vacoas: 109 km/h
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Pray for Madagascar
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2 (BATSIRAI) Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km/h. Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 230 km/h. Estimated pressure at the center: 945 hPa. Position on February 05 at 4 p.m. local time: 20.8 South / 49.4 East. Distance from the Reunion coast: 610 km to the sector: WEST Distance from Mayotte: 990 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST Travel: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 20 km/h. System information:- Intense tropical cyclone BATSIRAI is located less than 100 km from the planned impact area on the east coast of Madagascar. BATSIRAI remains a very dangerous system and will remain so until its arrival on earth, always likely to cause considerable damage to the impacted areas.- BATSIRAI is on final approach to the east coast of Madagascar and should land in the next few hours at northern proximity to the town of Mananjary, thus presenting a very serious threat to the area. The conditions are now well deteriorated in the areas with strong winds (gusts of more than 200 km/h at the point of impact in the next few hours), waves of 10 to 15 meters as well as a surge that can exceed 1m immediately south of the point of impact. Significant coastal flooding is to be feared in these sectors. It will also be accompanied by heavy rains which may then extend over part of the southern half of Madagascar, once the system has landed.
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Emnati has continued to intensify and is now a tropical cyclone. Its trajectory towards the west southwest is now confirmed but there has been a decrease in its speed of movement during the day. The estimated central pressure of the system is around 965 hPa and the estimated wind gust near the centre is around 180 km/h.
At 1200 hours tropical cyclone Emnati was centred at about 750 km to the north-east of Mauritius near latitude 14.5 degrees south and longitude 61.8 degrees east. Tropical cyclone Emnati is moving towards the west south west at a reduced speed of about 15 km/h.
Emnati will eventually assume a trajectory towards the south-west and continue to intensify as it passes in the vicinity of St Brandon. On this new trajectory, tropical cyclone Emnati is approaching our region and has become a potential threat to Mauritius.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (EMNATI) Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h. Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h. Estimated pressure at the center: 973 hPa. Position on February 19 at 10 a.m. local: 15.9 South / 58.9 East. Distance from the Reunion coast: 655 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-EAST Distance from Mayotte: 1510 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST Travel: WEST, at 19 km/h. System information:- EMNATI is a tropical cyclone whose intensity stabilized overnight. A resumption of intensification is still envisaged for today. EMNATI is expected to become an intense tropical cyclone over the weekend. Fluctuations in intensity are however possible.- The system continues its trajectory towards the southwest before straightening towards the west-southwest more frankly from Sunday. On this trajectory, EMNATI is approaching the Mascarenes this weekend and then the east coast of Madagascar early next week.- The preferred scenario sees the system pass about 320 km in the northern sector of Mauritius at the end of Saturday night to Sunday then about 300 km north of Reunion on Sunday evening. Uncertainty on these crossing distances is still significant, around 100km. - A deterioration in weather and sea conditions is expected from Saturday for Mauritius and Reunion. On this scenario the conditions should be a notch below the known conditions for BATSIRAI. Please note that a more pessimistic development cannot be ruled out at this time. Residents of the area are urged to monitor the situation.
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The island of Mauritius is now on Highest warning level 4.
Strong gusts are presently being experienced over several regions of the island. A few stations have already recorded wind gusts of the order of 120 km/h, especially to the north and to the west of the island. Moderate to heavy intermittent rain is persisting over the whole island. Cyclonic conditions are now prevailing over Mauritius.
Some of the highest gusts recorded are as follows:
Champ de Mars: 133 km/h
Nouvelle Decouverte: 122 km/h
Domaine les Pailles: 86 km/h
Le Morne: 119 Km/h
Vacoas: 93 km/h
Beau Songes: 97 km/h
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