Semiconductor shortage and the car market.

tobothehobo

Although I already knew this was a problem I was not aware it was such a big one.
I've been thinking of buying a new car and it looks like the car I want might have a 6 month waiting list due to production problems related to the shortages.
Has anyone else had a similar issue with ordering a car?
And what do you think it will mean for used car values now that importing from the UK has gotten so expensive?

listermint

tobothehobo wrote: »

Although I already knew this was a problem I was not aware it was such a big one.
I've been thinking of buying a new car and it looks like the car I want might have a 6 month waiting list due to production problems related to the shortages.
Has anyone else had a similar issue with ordering a car?
And what do you think it will mean for used car values now that importing from the UK has gotten so expensive?

Less large drops in prices for vehicles. Retention in value for second hand purchases from dealers. Less bargains. People holding on to vehicles longer due to cost to move.

Atlantic Dawn

Across the computer market I heard 18 months to 2 years before things are back to normal, I'd expect similar for cars. Used car prices have gone crazy.

arsebiscuits82

Was in with a Toyota dealer today through work. He was saying a guy called in yesterday to order a new land cruiser, the earliest he can deliver is January. It could be later.

L-M

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Across the computer market I heard 18 months to 2 years before things are back to normal, I'd expect similar for cars. Used car prices have gone crazy.

I wouldn’t say used car prices have gone crazy, they’ve gone normal. A car shouldn’t depreciate 50 percent in 3 years. It’s all relative, you’ll pay more for a 2017, but also for a 2015, 2013 and so on. But in two or three years it’ll be worth more pro rata.

So you might have to pay more for a car than you would have last year, but it’ll be equally worth more. It’s not like the money is dead in the water.

Atlantic Dawn

L-M wrote: »

I wouldn’t say used car prices have gone crazy, they’ve gone normal. A car shouldn’t depreciate 50 percent in 3 years. It’s all relative, you’ll pay more for a 2017, but also for a 2015, 2013 and so on. But in two or three years it’ll be worth more pro rata.

So you might have to pay more for a car than you would have last year, but it’ll be equally worth more. It’s not like the money is dead in the water.

We had gone in to a very much disposable society, scraping perfectly good cars. From a few trips to the US I was massively surprised by the age of their fleet, lots of cars still daily drivers from 90's still running perfectly fine.

ShadowHearth

L-M wrote: »

I wouldn’t say used car prices have gone crazy, they’ve gone normal. A car shouldn’t depreciate 50 percent in 3 years. It’s all relative, you’ll pay more for a 2017, but also for a 2015, 2013 and so on. But in two or three years it’ll be worth more pro rata.

So you might have to pay more for a car than you would have last year, but it’ll be equally worth more. It’s not like the money is dead in the water.

I am all up for car prices to keep better value. Unfortunately the only cars that keep value are the ones I dealer lots, not in people's homes.

mickdw

ShadowHearth wrote: »

I am all up for car prices to keep better value. Unfortunately the only cars that keep value are the ones I dealer lots, not in people's homes.

Things are turning alittle. They will have to stump up proper money for cars if tbis shortage continues.

Cookie_Monster

Skoda just announced to us that delays will happen now. 6 months plus on cars already ordered but not built. they are going to keep building the vehicles and store them until chips become available.
Certain VW vans like caravelle are now 12 months plus depending on spec. The hanover factory was heavily hit by covid
Mitsi have despecced all their stock, removing the likes of frontal crash mitigation to try and keep supply more stable also.
This.is for us here in NZ but I'm sure it'll be similar globally.

listermint

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Skoda just announced to us that delays will happen now. 6 months plus on cars already ordered but not built. they are going to keep building the vehicles and store them until chips become available.
Certain VW vans like caravelle are now 12 months plus depending on spec. The hanover factory was heavily hit by covid
Mitsi have despecced all their stock, removing the likes of frontal crash mitigation to try and keep supply more stable also.
This.is for us here in NZ but I'm sure it'll be similar globally.

This is why Elon started his bitcoin Twitter posts over the last two months. He has seen how the semiconductor stuff will and is hitting his actual businesses due to large portions of stocks being taken out of the market into bitcoin processing.

He wasn't at that for fun. Purely self interest.

ShadowHearth

listermint wrote: »

This is why Elon started his bitcoin Twitter posts over the last two months. He has seen how the semiconductor stuff will and is hitting his actual businesses due to large portions of stocks being taken out of the market into bitcoin processing.

He wasn't at that for fun. Purely self interest.

He does it to make more money out of thin air. He knows how stupid bitcoin market is and that it takes just one person to drop or increase its price. So one month He just says its stupid - price drops and he buys a lot of it, next month he says its amazing - price goes up he sells it off, rinse and repeat. He did two circles of this already lol.

In US some manufacturers cutting start/stop systems and giving people refunds due to shortages. Ironically people would pay extra to not have it in new cars.

Wibbs

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

We had gone in to a very much disposable society, scraping perfectly good cars. From a few trips to the US I was massively surprised by the age of their fleet, lots of cars still daily drivers from 90's still running perfectly fine.

You see more of that in mainland Europe too. Now Irish consumers have a large part to play in this, but "cheap credit" with PCP's and the lenders that benefit from that, SIMI naturally wanting to sell more new cars, the insurance industry loading older cars cos reasons and the government prefering the Churn of the New because it brings in more tax and makes the economy look better has the bigger part to play IMHO. I certainly know quite the number of people who got rid of perfectly servicable older cars that weren't money pits that flew through NCT's simply because the cheap new car on PCP with cheaper tax and insurance was the path of least resistance, if not necessarily cheaper overall. That is driving the disposable mindset in a big way.

Henry Ford III

How much stronger are used prices?

Wibbs

I know feck all about more current used prices and this is a very different segment, but "modern classic' prices have gone insane in the membrane since the pandemic hit. That's the case in a few areas of "collectables" though. When banks are giving little in return on savings people will tend to look elsewhere for investment. Plus for those who weren't too affected by the pandemic economically they likely had more spare cash that might have otherwise gone on things like holidays.

ml100

Wibbs wrote: »

I know feck all about more current used prices and this is a very different segment, but "modern classic' prices have gone insane in the membrane since the pandemic hit. That's the case in a few areas of "collectables" though. When banks are giving little in return on savings people will tend to look elsewhere for investment. Plus for those who weren't too affected by the pandemic economically they likely had more spare cash that might have otherwise gone on things like holidays.

I bought a 3 year old golf in August 2019, dealers are asking €100 less for the same car now 2 years older and twice the mileage.

Toyotafanboi

Was just going to say similar. Paid €8500 for my 12 Golf in September 2018, i'd say i'd still get the guys of €8k for it now.

Del2005

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Across the computer market I heard 18 months to 2 years before things are back to normal, I'd expect similar for cars. Used car prices have gone crazy.

Cars will be much later. Car manufactures are low volume buyers of relatively cheap chips and the chip makers have all switched to high volume expensive chips. Unless car manufactures start paying a premium and change their supply model they won't be getting many chips.

Wibbs wrote: »

You see more of that in mainland Europe too. Now Irish consumers have a large part to play in this, but "cheap credit" with PCP's and the lenders that benefit from that, SIMI naturally wanting to sell more new cars, the insurance industry loading older cars cos reasons and the government prefering the Churn of the New because it brings in more tax and makes the economy look better has the bigger part to play IMHO. I certainly know quite the number of people who got rid of perfectly servicable older cars that weren't money pits that flew through NCT's simply because the cheap new car on PCP with cheaper tax and insurance was the path of least resistance, if not necessarily cheaper overall. That is driving the disposable mindset in a big way.

You're forgetting that the nice shinny new cars make our CO2 emissions go down so we are good little environmentalists. Forgetting that the new car will need to last >15 years to even out for the scrapping of the perfectly good car..

Water2626262

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

We had gone in to a very much disposable society, scraping perfectly good cars. From a few trips to the US I was massively surprised by the age of their fleet, lots of cars still daily drivers from 90's still running perfectly fine.

I could be wrong but I don’t think they have much in terms of NCT checks etc. Always remember seeing absolute wrecks on the road over there.

L-M

Toyotafanboi wrote: »

Was just going to say similar. Paid €8500 for my 12 Golf in September 2018, i'd say i'd still get the guys of €8k for it now.

It’s the same all the way up along so again it’s all relative.

Unless you’re selling your car and leaving the country, it’s if not benefit.

I sold plenty of cars 2/3 years ago that would still make the same now. But the new cars have gone up by 7/8/9k.

zilog_jones

Water2626262 wrote: »

I could be wrong but I don’t think they have much in terms of NCT checks etc. Always remember seeing absolute wrecks on the road over there.

It depends on the state - some only require emissions tests, some safety inspections, some nothing at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_inspection_in_the_United_States