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2021 Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Season

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  • CNN interviewd a couple who flew into NOLA yesterday for holiday and were surprised to receive a hurricane warning when they landed. The mind boggles at how stupid some people are.





  • This storm will break a lot of records. Hopefully the human and environmental damage won’t be too high





  • In the past few minutes recon measured 928.1 hPa.

    115530 2830N 08932W 6964 02566 9281 +226 +039 129016 023 033 002 00

    An intermediate NHC discussion has it at 130 knots and possible Cat 5 at landfall.

    An intermediate NHC Discussion at 12Z has it at 130 knots but possible 135 (Cat 5) or higher at landfall. Hurricane Ida Special Discussion Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
    700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
    
    Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
    0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
    kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
    146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
    winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported 
    that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb.  This special 
    advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135 
    kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that 
    before landfall occurs.
    
    The initial motion estimate is 320/13 kt, slightly faster than 
    the previous forecast.  Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point has
    also been adjusted slightly.  No other changes were made to the 
    track or intensity forecasts.
    
    The initial and forecast 64-kt wind radii were adjusted outward in
    the northeast and southeast quadrants based on aircraft data.
    
    Note that this Special advisory replaces the regular 1200 UTC (700
    AM CDT) intermediate public advisory.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or 
    greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area 
    from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. 
    Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm 
    Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation 
    values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning 
    area should follow any advice given by local officials.
    
    2. Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves 
    onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few 
    hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane 
    Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New 
    Orleans. 
    
    3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the 
    track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana 
    and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds 
    will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.
    
    4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the 
    central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, 
    to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life- 
    threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding 
    impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are 
    possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and 
    Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  29/1200Z 28.5N  89.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
     12H  29/1800Z 29.2N  90.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
     24H  30/0600Z 30.6N  91.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
     36H  30/1800Z 32.2N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
     48H  31/0600Z 33.8N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     60H  31/1800Z 35.4N  87.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
     72H  01/0600Z 36.7N  85.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
     96H  02/0600Z 38.9N  78.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    






  • Just watching the tv channel in New Orleans and it seems they are confident they won’t have flooding in New Orleans itself due to the levee system which 16 years ago today failed during Katrina and lead to those awful scenes in that city. But this is going to be bad for Louisiana.



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  • Now well within range of radar






  • 13Z update:

    130 kts (150 mph), 930 hPa.





  • No change at 14Z. It seems to have peaked as it has moved off that warm eddy.

    SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W
    ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
    ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
    
    ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... 
    ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN 
    LOUISIANA...
    
    An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, 
    recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind 
    gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at 
    Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a 
    sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194 
    km/h). 
    
    A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown, 
    Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) 
    and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). 
    

    Southwest Pass, anemometer height 38 metres, 102 mph.


    Pilot Station East, anemometer height 20 metres, 97 mph.




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  • ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR 
    PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...
    
    NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made 
    landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port 
    Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC).  Data from an Air Force 
    Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that 
    Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150 
    mph (240 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure estimated from 
    reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).
    
    Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a 
    gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New 
    Orleans. 
    
    A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, 
    recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high 
    water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 
    
    A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, 
    Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean 
    higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that 
    area. 
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
    ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
    ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
    


    It maxed out at 150 mph (Cat 4) and lowest pressure was briefly 929 hPa.





  • Some more camera's including one on Grand Isle, the surge camera went off earlier when it went under water, back up and running again with the wind direction slightly changed. The camera is 8ft off the ground.







  • crazy storm chaser live stream






  • Been watching this guy for a little while. His name is Reed Timmer. Live streaming from Huoma , LA. Looks bloody crazy :)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99S7tMwoHtQ&ab_channel=ReedTimmer





  • Wind and pressure history for Ida, based on NHC updates.






  • Apologies, I didnt see meteorite's post when I logged in to post, so sorry about that.





  • Hasn’t weakened much at all since it came ashore. All the water pushed ahead into the marshlands I’d imagine is keeping the fuel going.

    Still mesovortices within the eye overland. Astonishing.





  • 21Z, now down to 130 mph, 938 hPa.

    Hurricane Ida Discussion Number  15
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
    400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
    
    NWS Doppler radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that Ida made landfall
    around 1655 UTC along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near
    Port Fourchon with estimated maximum winds of 130 kt and a minimum
    pressure around 930 mb.  Since that time, Ida made a second 
    landfall southwest of Galliano, Louisiana, and with the eyewall now
    onshore weakening has begun.  Based on the latest Doppler
    velocities the initial wind speed has been conservatively reduced
    to 115 kt for this advisory.  As Ida's circulation moves farther
    inland this evening and overnight a faster rate of weakening is
    expected, and Ida is forecast to become a tropical depression over
    Mississippi by late Monday.  Although weakening is forecast, 
    damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland 
    over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through 
    Monday morning.  To account for this, the gust factor in the 
    Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly.  By 72 hours, Ida 
    is predicted to merge with a frontal zone over the eastern United 
    States and become an extratropical low, and this low is forecast to 
    strengthen into a gale center near Atlantic Canada by the end of 
    the forecast period.
    
    Radar fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has slowed and the
    initial motion estimate is 325/9 kt.  The hurricane should turn
    northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer 
    ridge near the southeastern United States coast.  Ida is forecast 
    to turn northeastward and recurve over the eastern United States as 
    it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  The GFS is a bit faster in 
    ejecting the post-tropical cyclone northeastward on days 3 through 
    5, and the NHC forecast follows a blend of the various consensus 
    models and the GFS ensemble mean.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or
    greater above ground level will continue through early this
    evening along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana,
    to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside
    of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible
    where local inundation values may be higher.
    
    2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as
    it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few
    hours.  Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected
    through tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern
    Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans.
    
    3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
    track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight
    and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree
    damage and power outages.
    
    4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall through Monday across 
    the central Gulf Coast across southeast Louisiana, coastal 
    Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable 
    to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant 
    river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding 
    impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi 
    Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, 
    and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  29/2100Z 29.5N  90.6W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
     12H  30/0600Z 30.7N  90.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
     24H  30/1800Z 32.4N  90.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
     36H  31/0600Z 34.0N  89.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
     48H  31/1800Z 35.6N  87.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
     60H  01/0600Z 37.1N  84.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
     72H  01/1800Z 38.6N  80.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  02/1800Z 41.3N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  03/1800Z 43.8N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    




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  • Sounds like he's driving a honda 50. Says his gas tank sounds a like a fart





  • The weather channel is gas with these events. The reporters stand in the most fascinating places, more often than not looking more than a little ridiculous. Makes me giggle 😁





  • You need to hear the roar of the wind on this one !!

    EDIT : clip is actually from Golden Meadow , a lot of footage coming out from there looks to have taken some battering, the eye would have passed over or very close to it.



    Post edited by Meteorite58 on




  • Hard she blows





  • Total lifetime of Ida






  • Tropical Storm Larry in the neighbourhood of Cape Verde now is forecast to become a Major Hurricane in three days.

    Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
    800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021
    
    Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C have increased over 
    and to the west of the low-level center since the previous advisory. 
    Subjective satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and 
    SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, while the most recent objective 
    intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are T2.8/41 kt from ADT and 37 kt 
    from SATCON. An average of these intensity estimates support 
    increasing the advisory intensity to 40 kt, making the cyclone 
    Tropical Storm Larry. In addition, 0300 UTC and 0700 UTC 
    observations from ship VRNF3, which recently passed through the 
    center of Larry, reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb and winds near 25 
    kt. These data were the basis for the estimated central pressure of 
    1003 mb, a pressure value that also supports an intensity of 40 kt.
    
    Larry has turned more westward over the past several hours, and the 
    new motion estimate is 280/17 kt. Larry is expected to move around 
    the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling 
    Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general 
    west motion for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward 
    the west-northwest on Friday, and a northwestward motion over the 
    weekend and continuing into early next week. There has been a 
    pronounced westward shift in the track guidance for this cycle, with 
    the greatest shift coming from the GFS model. Over the past 36 
    hours, the GFS has shifted its track westward by more than 500 nmi, 
    and even the latest shift still keeps the GFS model the easternmost 
    track forecast in the guidance suite. In contrast, the ECMWF and 
    UKMET models, which lie along the westernmost portion of the 
    guidance envelope, have been fairly stable. Owing to the westward 
    shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS 
    solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also 
    been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA 
    corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA 
    simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the 
    north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by 
    the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted 
    farther west.
    
    Given the improved inner-core wind field based on earlier ASCAT wind 
    data and reports from ship VRNF3, along with warm sea-surface 
    temperatures of 28 deg C and light easterly to southeasterly 
    vertical shear of around 5 kt, steady strengthening is expected for 
    the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours when Larry is expected to be a 
    hurricane and have a well-established and tighter inner-core wind 
    field and possibly an eye, rapid intensification is forecast, with 
    Larry becoming a major hurricane by 72 hour. This in large part due 
    to the massive equatorward upper-level outflow pattern that all 
    of the global and regional models are forecasting, which is the 
    same type of outflow pattern that recently occurred with Hurricane 
    Ida. The new official intensity forecast is above the previous 
    advisory forecast by about 10 kt at all forecast times, and 
    conservatively follows an average of the Decay-SHIPS, COAMPS-TC, 
    FSSE, and ECMWF models. This intensity forecast is near the upper 
    end of the guidance envelope and is above the other consensus 
    intensity models.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  01/0900Z 12.3N  24.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  01/1800Z 12.5N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
     24H  02/0600Z 12.6N  30.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  02/1800Z 13.1N  33.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
     48H  03/0600Z 13.6N  36.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
     60H  03/1800Z 14.4N  39.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
     72H  04/0600Z 15.5N  42.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
     96H  05/0600Z 18.2N  46.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
    120H  06/0600Z 21.3N  50.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
    






  • Might be worth watching Larry as the gulf stream looks set to return soon enough too





  • http://www.trackthetropics.com/larry-2021/

    Link to larry - already looking pretty





  • Larry is looking to go to Hurricane strength soon.

    Tropical Storm Larry Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
    530 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021
    
    ...LARRY GETTING STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
    
    Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Larry's maximum 
    sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h), with 
    higher gusts. 
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 530 PM CVT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.4N 28.5W
    ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    




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  • It's on the cusp of becoming a hurricane. 60 knots at 21Z. An eye did show up later on satellite and now in the most recent 87 GHz scan at 2054Z.

    The latest NHC forecast conservatively forecasts it reaching 105 knots (Cat 3) before encountering dry air and later some increased shear but warmer seas. Interesting one to watch develop.




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