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Guineas Weekend

  • #1
    Registered Users Posts: 464 ✭✭ deeks


    Tomorrow’s card seemingly in doubt earlier. Hope it goes ahead.

    Had a good look at Saturdays card. I’ll leave the two juvenile contests alone especially on the likely ground.

    Glen Shiel looks a worthy favourite in the Greenlands but he’s not a price that would interest me.

    There’s question marks about almost all the horses near the top of the market in the Guineas so I’ve looked for a bit of value and the one I like is Monassib at 16/1. Has acted on soft and his beresford second and third to poetic flare on re appearance suggest he might just be over priced.

    My last bet is Magic Carousel in the 4.25. Has shown he acts on the ground. Has no weight with his 5 lb claimer and took and big step forward from his first to his second run last year. At 16/1 I’m hopeful he can get involved.

    Edit - both are 18/1 4 places with PP.


Comments



  • I also like The King of Kells in the 6 furlong handicap at 5.00 (40/1 5 places PP). He’s entitled to come on for his run the last day which came after a long lay off and probably too far a trip. Both of his turf wins have come over 6 furlongs at the Curragh, once on soft and once on heavy.




  • 4.25 sheer chance 14/1 e/w

    Wayne doing 8-6 and form on heavy enough for me. :D




  • It would be great to see another big winner for Kevin Prendergast and he has a chance in both the 1000 and 2000. Don't think anyone would begrudge him winning

    Edit just saw his one in the 1000 wasn't declared.




  • Racing goes ahead today which is great news.

    I’ve backed both MacSwiney @10s and Monaasib @16s




  • FWIW

    IRISH GUINEAS BETTING TRENDS AND STATS
    17/19 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
    15/19 – Had won over either 7f or 1m before
    15/19 – Favourites that finished in the top two
    15/19 – Had won between 1-4 times before
    14/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
    14/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
    14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
    13/19 – Irish bred
    13/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
    12/19 – Had run at the Curragh before
    11/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
    10/19 – Had won a Group 1 race before
    9/19 – Winning favourites
    8/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
    8/19 – Unplaced last time out
    8/19 – Trained by a UK-based stable
    8/19 – Won last time out
    5/19 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
    The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11/2
    Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double



    TQ VERDICT: A more open renewal of the Irish 2000 Guineas this season, in a race the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will be going for their twelfth win! However, the Ballydoyle outfit are now three years without success in the race, with the last coming in 2017 with Churchill. Like most years, they are mob-handed again with three runners – Wembley, Van Gogh and Battleground – and the trio all look to have a chance. They also all ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out and it was Van Gogh who came out best in 8th, with Wembley in 11th and Battleground in 13th. You feel that all three are much better than those showings and the much quicker ground that day was probably a big reason why they all underperformed. Back on ground with more give we can expect improved runs from the three, but the fact jockey Ryan Moore sticks with WEMBLEY could be significant. This 3 year-old wasn’t given a hard time once his chance was lost on the quick ground at Newmarket last time, but prior to that had run in the top three in all six starts, including a close second in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes last season. The softer ground here is a huge plus and even though his breeding suggests he’ll want further in time that stamina in his pedigree will be an asset in testing conditions – he’s taken to ‘hit the back of the net’ for trainer Aidan O’Brien. We also get a chance to see the winner of the English 2000 Guineas again – Poetic Flare – but he ran only last week too in the French Guineas and was only 6th. Therefore, he’s got a bit to prove for me and this race coming just six days later might not be ideal for this young horse. Course winner – Lucky Vega – is another big player having been a close third in the English 2000 Guineas last time but I just feel the heavy ground will test his stamina to the max and breeding suggests this 1m trip is probably around his max – we’ll see. The English challenge is thin on the ground, but is headed by the Charlie Appleby-trained La Barrosa, who was last seen running a close second in the Craven Stakes at HQ. But his only try on heavy ground saw him get tired quickly, so conditions would certainly be a worry for him too. The Hugo Palmer runner – The Rosstafarian is the only other UK-trained runner. The forgotten horse could be the other Jim Bolger runner – MAC SWINEY (e/w) – who probably need the run last time out in the G1 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown. Back in trip will suit and he’s a winner on heavy ground, when landing the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster last season. Add in that he’s also a prove course winner here at the Curragh, then he could be the each-way value in the race.



    and


    TQ VIEW 'Best Bet': 6.55 Lingfield: EVE LODGE - Should be a straight- forward task for Charlie's horse here. Caught the eye on debut at Ascot (3rd) and this looks easier. With that experience under her belt can take this before heading to the Royal Meeting at Ascot next month.


    TQ VIEW 'Each-Way': 5.55 Lingfield: RAFIOT (e/w) - The Gary Moore horses have been in good order this week. This 5 year-old has lost his way a bit in recent runs after dotting up at Southwell in January. But both runs were over longer trips so the drop back to 1m4f today is a plus and he's also a CD winner here on the AW at Lingfield. Could go well at a nice e/w price.


    Scott Dixon
    Ebury
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    14:05, York
    DEC Odds: 23 (Betfair Exc)
    Well beaten behind Tomfre when last seen at Doncaster back in November so a fair bit to prove. Returns on a 2lb lower mark, but also a 6 month break so might just need the run here today.

    Charlie Fellowes
    London Arch
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    15:15, York
    DEC Odds: 22 (Betfair Exc)
    Has taken his time to come in his coat but is finally getting there. Soft Ground should be fine and I am hoping he can continue on from where he finished last year.

    Harmonious
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    15:15, York
    Glimmers of form with 4 seconds from his 9 runs, but very disappointing here at York last time out. Only 3lbs lower here and is certainly better than that running so we are putting the cheekpieces on today to see if they help. Hard to fancy until we see more on the track.

    Zargun
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    15:50, York
    DEC Odds: 15 (Betfair Exc)
    Ran a blinder last time out here, when a close third in a similar race. Up just a pound for that but has come out of the race well and after just getting bumped and collared late on the result might have been a bit better. The drop back to 5f is fine as shows plenty of pace and has good Group form in Germany on softer ground. Competitive, but each-way chance and looking forward to seeing him in action again. Looks one of our better chances on the day.

    Simon Dow
    Petesorse
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    17:20, Lingfield
    Half brother to a prolific sprint winner but this one looks as if he needs much further. Step up in trip will help but needs to show a bit more before we can predict the outcome.

    Catesby
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    17:25, York
    Slowly away last time and has been getting a bit outpaced over 6f so stepping up to 7f here should help. Into a harder grade of race here from last time though so a bit to find despite being 2lbs lower. Ross Birkett rides in this gentleman's race so that will help. But overall hard to get too excited about until we see more on the track.

    Ed Dunlop
    Global Art
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    17:55, Lingfield
    He has been in good form at home and ran a good race last start at Chelmsford when drawn badly. This looks a nice option for him and we decided to step him up in trip to try and seek further improvement. The horse to beat in the Jamie Osborne trained runner. Global Art will be ridden by Mark Crehan who claims 5lb. He has each-way claims.

    Gary Moore
    Rafiot
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    17:55, Lingfield
    DEC Odds: 19.5 (Betfair Exc)
    Looks competitive but Rafiot has been working to a decent standard at home recently and hopeful of a better run. Easy winner at Southwell back in January, but has struggled to build on that off his higher mark - was hiked up 8lbs for that win. Down 2lbs here and back on the AW helps after running down the field on the turf last time. Rhys knows the horse well and can claim 5lbs so with more in his favour here today - most notably back to 1m4f - then no shock to see a decent e/w run here at a fair price.

    Jamie Snowden
    Some Day Soon
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    18:40, Stratford upon Avon
    DEC Odds: 8 (Betfair Exc)
    Some Day Soon ran very well on his comeback run to be 3rd over 2m4 three weeks ago. He's on a stiff enough mark to win a handicap hurdle at this time of year, but the top horse keeps the weights down nicely here, and he'd have a chance here providing the ground doesn't ride too soft. He's in good form, and should run his race.

    Eve Lodge
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    18:55, Lingfield
    DEC Odds: 1.92 (Betfair Exc)
    Is very nice and we were delighted with her debut at Ascot. Hopefully she can win at Lingfield tonight and book a place at Royal Ascot

    Moosmee
    Sat 22nd May 2021
    19:25, Lingfield
    DEC Odds: 42 (Betfair Exc)
    Never shown any form for us on the track but has had a break and goes well at home. Previous best form was on soft ground and likely to stay 7f but hard to recommend until he looks as if he is on the way back.


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  • Have MacSwiney in the Guineas during the week , 9/1 4 places.
    Colfer Kay in the last is another who should like the going. 15/2 EW.
    Pretty Boy Floyd for small EW in the 5.00. Course winner on ground that suits. 25/1.




  • maximo31 wrote: »
    Have MacSwiney in the Guineas during the week , 9/1 4 places.
    Colfer Kay in the last is another who should like the going. 15/2 EW.
    Pretty Boy Floyd for small EW in the 5.00. Course winner on ground that suits. 25/1.
    Macswiney as well for me in the big one.




  • Nice call by the McSwiney backers ðŸ‘ðŸ‘




  • Rory Clearly you little dazzler, class ride.




  • Fair play to Jim Bolger certainly hasn't wrapped his horses in wool.

    Can anyone tell me the last horse to run in the English, irish and French Guineas or has it ever been done


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  • Not bad for an Epsom prep race and McSwiney won in a good time too ( Slow by 4.42 ). Given the reasonable time most of the flops can't be blamed on bad ground.




  • Fair play to Jim Bolger certainly hasn't wrapped his horses in wool.

    Can anyone tell me the last horse to run in the English, irish and French Guineas or has it ever been done


    Finsceal Beo did it in the 1,000 Guineas in 2007 when she won 2 out of the 3. Saoirse Abu did it the following year but only had two 3rds and a 5th to show for it




  • deeks wrote: »
    I also like The King of Kells in the 6 furlong handicap at 5.00 (40/1 5 places PP). He’s entitled to come on for his run the last day which came after a long lay off and probably too far a trip. Both of his turf wins have come over 6 furlongs at the Curragh, once on soft and once on heavy.

    Never really threatened but kept on well to be placed.




  • Tomorrow’s fancy is Quizical in the 4.20 33/1 5 places with PP. Has been second in an Irish Lincolnshire off 2 lbs lower and likes testing ground which he will get. Needs to leave his re appearance behind but has done that in previous years. Finally he likes to be there or thereabouts in his races and all the winners over a mile at the curragh today were prominent early suggesting it’s hard to come from behind on this ground.




  • 4.20 Curragh Sirjack Thomas 22/1

    He goes in the same race as deeks likes one in above. A lot of horses in here, and this is one I like at a price. Sirjack has plenty of form on soft and heavy going, including an 8th spot in the Cambridgeshire last August. The going was soft to heavy that day and he was beaten just under 3.5lgths. He was rated 88 that day, and goes off 83 today. I especially like his last run at the course 2 runs back, when he came 3rd under today's jockey. He can race prominently, or off the pace, and anything in between; which can only be a help in this big field. The aforementioned recent course outing was on good, so it appears that he likes the course regardless of going, and he'll do me as an ew pick against the field, with 5 places a fifth.

    I wish I had known when I was in 'The Good Old Days' before I actually left them.





  • Joandearc WIN for the 1000s Guineas and in the lucky last RockdeBaume e/w for BillyLee and JP combo

    Over in france I'm on Ajas WIN the steeplechase de paris Voila Rachel




  • The Gallinule in the next at the Curragh looks a minefield. Only nine runners, and had a look at the top two in the betting, but couldn't split them. Johnny Murtagh's has seen some money too, as well as Joey's Vafortino. I don't think Weld's Erzindjan will be far away, so even though he's only 4s, I'll do him each way. Bit of a worry that he'll stay 10f on soft, but looks the value bet here.

    I wish I had known when I was in 'The Good Old Days' before I actually left them.





  • True Self looks a very big price in the next. Question marks about most of them and could easily be placed at a price.




  • If Broome runs to form, he should win this easy. Red hot lately, including 2 C & D wins. Evens aint exactly generous though.

    I wish I had known when I was in 'The Good Old Days' before I actually left them.





  • deeks wrote: »
    True Self looks a very big price in the next. Question marks about most of them and could easily be placed at a price.

    Nice easy place there. WD

    I wish I had known when I was in 'The Good Old Days' before I actually left them.



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  • leffesem wrote: »
    If Broome runs to form, he should win this easy. Red hot lately, including 2 C & D wins. Evens aint exactly generous though.

    Well Helvic Dreams turned the tables, an improving 4yo and loved the ground. Sunchart taking on Broome early possibly cost him the race, he had to cede the rail to Sunchart and move out to get comfortable. He lost his chance to control the race.




  • After the ground made such a difference in the Tattersalls who are the bogtrotters in the 1,000?




  • tryfix wrote: »
    Well Helvic Dreams turned the tables, an improving 4yo and loved the ground. Sunchart taking on Broome early possibly cost him the race, he had to cede the rail to Sunchart and move out to get comfortable. He lost his chance to control the race.


    No cover... Was in front too soon, and racing early on didn't help... That's racing :p:(

    I wish I had known when I was in 'The Good Old Days' before I actually left them.





  • I’m liking the looks of Fantasy Lady in the Guineas. Ran on too late in the race won by Joan of Arc the last day and handled the ground as a 2 year old when winning over course and distance. Good chance of out running her 25/1 odds and being placed.




  • Heard a whisper for a horse in the states. In the next, the 6.31 @ Belmont, the fav - Bella Principessa is around 6/4 and is expected to win. I'm currently backing the horse.




  • Goat you talk some amount of ****e I have to say.


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