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Murder at the Cottage | Sky



  • Registered Users Posts: 904 ✭✭✭ tinytobe

    After all that I've read, it's also my gut feeling that the murder took place in the early hours of the morning while it was still dark. Sophie had a reason for the trip, apparently to fix something in the house / the heating? Sophie's mind was probably still used to the time zone in France, so 6am in Ireland could easily have been 7am for Sophie, and she was probably up early. She could easily have finished breakfast by 6.45 am.

    If it was the horny Guard from Bantry, than a 7am visit to Sophie's house would not have been unusual, if the meeting was pre-aranged, and the Guard would have justified the time of the visit, that it was before his shift would start, - a credible excuse for Sophie to buy into..... It would also still have been under the cover of darkness, sunrise can be very slow in this latitude and would probably not come before 8.30 or 8.45 at the earliest.....

    Also, if the murder really took place in the morning, I'd suggest the reason for killing was not any form of sexual rejection. I also don't think that sex was on anybody's mind on that morning, and certainly the Guard couldn't suggest that, if he was at the beginning of his shift.....or let's say, it seems not very likely.

    So the motive to go to Sophie's was most likely not sex, but rather to talk to her about drug trafficking, - that is, if we're considering the horny Guard from Bantry in this theory..... And if the horny Guard from Bantry was in on the drug trafficking and didn't respond to Sophie's continued questions and statements, the conversation could easily have turned into an argument, resulting in the Guard losing his mind and grabbing a cavity block.....

    And before anybody goes again, yes, this one mentioned above is just a theory.

  • Registered Users Posts: 637 ✭✭✭ tibruit

    "Asking to be accompanied by friends or relatives

    She must have anticipated some sort of confrontation"

    When I read those lines you quoted, I consider that we have evidence from Irish and French witnesses that she knew Bailey and that she was going to have further interaction with him. She probably got bad vibes and was wary of him. It also looks like the installed gate was a work in progress. If I was a contractor who had just installed a gate and the lady that hired me had died and it was no longer obvious as to who was going to pay me, well then I`d be taking my gate back. That seems to be the most logical reason why the gate is gone. You are actually hearing hooves and thinking zebras.

  • Registered Users Posts: 904 ✭✭✭ tinytobe

    This is also part of the reason, why my gut feeling says that the murder was planned, not unplanned. It's also my gut feeling that the murderer knew that Sophie was in the way or some kind of threat for whatever reason and "had to be dealt with" meaning eliminated.

    However I am aware that opinions differ on that one, even on the definition of planned vs unplanned.

  • Registered Users Posts: 637 ✭✭✭ tibruit

    "The evidence from the French and Irish witnesses is laughable"

    Only to the biased mind.

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    Says one of the few people on here who can't consider other suspects except Ian Bailey 🤦‍♀️

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    I'm open to Sophie being in the way or some sort of threat, but I find it difficult to believe her murder was planned. If it was it was very badly planned, as the perp used random weapons they found to hand.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭ saabsaab

    The scene could have been staged after the killing to take attention away from evidence elsewhere. I don't think it was planned but maybe an attempt was made to convince her/change her mind and then it got out of hand. From what I read of her she had little fear and may have started off very angry?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 904 ✭✭✭ tinytobe

    I'd say she must have been some sort of a threat, otherwise the murderer wouldn't have killed her. If it was in rage, I'd suggest it was because she rejected somebody's sexual advances. That's just my thoughts here. I would also find it hard to imagine that suppose the horny Guard would have visited her at 7am in the morning for a sexual encounter. It's not impossible, but rather unusual.

    For an unplanned murder surprisingly little evidence was found, hence my feelings. Yes, it's possible that the murderer staged the crime scene after the murder. Even if the murderer didn't plan the murder ahead, I'd say the reason for the visit to Sophie's whatever the nature must have been of grave important to the murderer. If the nature of the conversation was drug trafficking the murderer would have contemplated the option killing her prior to the visit. He also must have known that she was home. If there was no meeting arranged by phone, how could the murderer have been so sure, she was home, and also home alone? I'd say his chances of finding Sophie home alone were higher in the early morning, she'd be unlikely to have had any guests at 7am? ( unless another man stayed the night over., which we all know is not beyond possibility.... )

    It's also my gut feeling the murderer parked his car down by the gate, rather than at Sophie's house and they may have walked down to the gate together.

  • Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭ mamboozle

    I believe that in early morning twilight about 8 am, she saw some activity and went to confront somebody. It could very probably be a spur of the moment thing with the assailant wearing gloves because of the cold. Either grabs a poker from Sophie's hand or has something else like a nail bar to hand, that after one or two blows there is no turning back. Finishing off with the block is making sure. There is no reason there should be much by way of evidence left by the killer at the scene.

    It has been established that there was something happening around the main entrance gate and the gap into her field where someone may have been making a claim to some right of way. It wouldn't be the first time people have come to blows over this very thing. How much did the investigators dig into the background of what was happening at this precise location in the days and weeks prior to the murder? It seems like such an obvious flashpoint but the investigators set their sights on Bailey with undue haste. He would have found out what was going on and had to be stopped.

  • Registered Users Posts: 637 ✭✭✭ tibruit

    There are no other suspects. Some come on here and accuse people based on imagined evidence, or rumours that must be true because they heard it down the pub. You are one of those. Yet you ridicule me for referring to real actual statements that have been given by real actual witnesses. But away....sure it`s all just one big conspiracy.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭ saabsaab

    Were they wearing gloves? No answer to that it seems but would explain lack of fingerprints skin on the block. Was the block to be re-tested for traces of fibres/skin cells?

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,479 ✭✭✭ chicorytip

    I don't think she would have had a clear, unobstructed view of the entrance gate from any vantage point in her house and certainly not in darkness. It's far more likely she was chased down the lane from the house by her murderer or else was alerted to his presence at the gate by the sound or lights of a car or by the sound of his voice calling her. A dispute over a right of way ? Only the Lyons could possibly have been involved in that kind of dispute with Sophie and neither of them were physically capable of perpetrating such a violent assault. So,that leaves a drug angle. I don't think drugs were being landed in the locality. It's many miles from the sea and where would they be stored? Maybe Sophie was a drug user and had a dispute with her (local) dealer and he killed her. There was no evidence or parephanalia associated with drug use found in the house. All roads still lead back to the prime suspect.

  • Registered Users Posts: 904 ✭✭✭ tinytobe

    Of all the theories and suspects, I find the drug trafficking theory and the local police being in on it the most likely scenario.

    Whether the horny Guard from Bantry did the killing of Sophie or they coerced somebody else, like Alfie, or Leo or even another Guard, to do the killing is hard to guess and prove today.

    The reason why I think that this theory is most likely is that the local police did so much in terms of, to date proven, cover up and collusion that it automatically begs the question as to the motive of their doing so? In the end the local police went to great length with that cover-up activity.

    In the case of a possible French hitman, hired by either an avenging lover or her husband wanting to avoid a costly divorce and cash in on the life insurance the local police would never have considered coercing Marie Farrell into making a false whiteness statement or involving Martin Graham with drugs and money to get close to Bailey.

    The local police would never ever have coerced or colluded or covered up, if it wasn't to direct attention away from them.

    The local police would also not have done so, if it was just down to simply one of their own having certain sexual desires. The local police would only have done so, if they knew it was way more than one officer involved, at least 3 or 4 of them, I'd suggest. A drug operation in the SW of Ireland could not be done by just having one bent Guard, but more likely 3 or 4, or even more.... And I find it more likely 3 or 4 Guards were rather in it with the drugs than they all wanted sex with Sophie. We would have known about the latter by now.

  • Registered Users Posts: 637 ✭✭✭ tibruit

    "No other suspects? What does that even mean? I don`t even know"

    Sure you do. Evidence is what it takes, plain and simple. We have had a myriad of names proposed here as suspects. But when you get down to the nitty gritty with them there is no evidence that goes beyond what we should imagine exists or what someone heard in the pub. There are no other realistic suspects.

    There is no reason not to believe Bolger. It`s not rocket science as to why he received his suspended sentence. He was a potential future murder trial witness and they wanted to keep him sweet. Anything else you have in mind belongs over in the conspiracy theory forum. I would remember making that introduction too by the way, sorry if it means you have a bit of brain fog.

    The DPP, apart from showing some basic lack of understanding of localized minutiae, went through the various "he said she said" scenarios and came up with some reasons why a future defense counsel might undermine a number of witnesses. Some of this however is nothing more than believing Bailey to be truthful. This ignores the fact that Bailey lied on the initial questionnaire and lied early on under interrogation. You can treat every statement as a microcosm and try to find fault with it as you have just tried to do with Bolger, but there comes a tipping point when the burden of witness testimony should be considered as a whole. This became apparent at the libel trial when 20 witnesses contradicted various aspects of Bailey`s evidence. They were all subject to cross examination by Bailey`s team and none of them were undermined.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭ mamboozle

    @odyssey06 you really shouldn't bother with this comedian. Look at this "The DPP, apart from showing some basic lack of understanding of localized minutiae". "apart from" if you don't mind.

    There are many people in Louisiana that will swear blind that many convictions of overwhelmingly African-American males by non-unanimous jury decisions based on hearsay evidence are perfectly sound. It's a strange world.

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,475 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06

    There are no other suspects .. does that mean you pin it on a whoever else you can find?

    What about crimes were there are no suspects? How did they do it leaving nothing linking them to the crime? And why couldnt that be whats happened here?

    Read up on some solved cold cases or miscarriages of justice? Because your ignorance is dangerous if you are ever on a jury.

    Theres no reason not to believe a guy facing a long prison sentence... who now has a motive to lie?

    A suspended sentence for a large scale drugs operation?

    This is one of your witnesses?

    This is part of your tipping point of evidence?

    Garbage tainted evidence is still garbage evidence no matter how much of it you sling. And thats all there is. Garbage evidence from people with a reason to lie, dodgy memories which resurface years later and a community whipped up into a frenzy by AGS that they had a dangerous killer in their midst who would strike again and needed to be put away. A result was needed.

    Its the recipe for miscarriages of justice seen so many times.

    Yeah there is no reason to your argument, just gullible delusions and illogical thinking.

    Its a charter for miscarriages of justice.

  • Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭ mamboozle

    “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”, is a law of propaganda often attributed to the Nazi Joseph Goebbels.

  • Registered Users Posts: 637 ✭✭✭ tibruit

    "Theres no reason not to believe a guy facing a long prison sentence....who now has a motive to lie?"

    You might have a point.....except he made the statement over a decade before he was arrested.

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,475 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06

    No he didnt as far as I can tell.

    And even if he had... he was involved in the drugs for how long... he could have been setting up a favour with AGS to turn a blind eye at the time to his illegal activity. His testimony has no credibility.

    As I said relying on garbage evidence is a recipe for miscarriages of justice.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭ chooseusername

    "I just can't see why the Gards made Bailey their prime suspect in this case, and basically gave up on anybody else being in the frame for the murder?"

    He wound them up.

    Posh, English, public school educated, with a superiority complex.

    Started out poking fun at the yokel guards, but it all went a bit Pete Tong .

    He always thought they would solve the case and he would be in clover .

    But our Gardaí had other ideas, they got stuck in to him and couldn't care less whether he was guilty or not.

    They went all out to nail him at any cost.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭ saabsaab

    A French magazine has quoted Nick Forster as saying that he now believed that there is new evidence available to the Garda that wasn't there a few months ago. Also that the case is close to being solved.

    Must be something in it or is he spoofing?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 904 ✭✭✭ tinytobe

    ....he now believes..... Believing it, doesn't prove it in a court of law.

    And if the Guards had new evidence we will hear it from them, we don't need Nick Forster and we don't care what he believes or doesn't believe.

This discussion has been closed.