POI for the Coroners Society of Ireland, Nphet’s figures for deaths may be innacurate

drunkmonkey

Flange/Flanders wrote: »

A significant confounder in that is that Covid wasnt allowed to run unabated through the community, we had significant measures in place to limit its spread. So if you're implying that Covid doesnt have any effect on excess mortality, then you're interpretation is flawed.

Could you say it was allowed to run free before the Government hit the panic button, it took a while to hit the nursing homes, I know a good few people who are fully convinced they had this well before March.
There's no test to say if they had or hadn't, antibody test won't give a full picture.
I brought in safety measures early February after seeing what was happening in China, looking back now a lot of what we were seeing coming out of China was fake news.

Flange/Flanders

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Could you say it was allowed to run free before the Government hit the panic button, it took a while to hit the nursing homes, I know a good few people who are fully convinced they had this well before March.
There's no test to say if they had or hadn't, antibody test won't give a full picture.
I brought in safety measures early February after seeing what was happening in China, looking back now a lot of what we were seeing coming out of China was fake news.

People thinking they had it before? Classic recall bias there.
It might have been fake news from China but North Italy and New York last year werent, it wasnt fake news in our hospitals in January/Early February, It definitely isnt fake news in India at present.

drunkmonkey

Flange/Flanders wrote: »

People thinking they had it before? Classic recall bias there.
It might have been fake news from China but North Italy and New York last year werent, it wasnt fake news in our hospitals in January/Early February, It definitely isnt fake news in India at present.

Possibly but at the same time they had some of the main symptoms and quite severe one ended up in ICU a 40yr old healthy teacher, it wasn't the flu.
The increased incidence in north Italy and New York are explained to some extent.
The assumption the cases would be a lot higher if we didn't have all the social interaction rules along with mandatory ppe doesn't seem to be ringing through, Fauci can't explain Texas, I don't buy his opinion they're just better behaved.

hi5

PintOfView wrote: »

The fact that you are talking about digital vaccine passports makes me think you are looking at conspiracy web sites?
What do you see as the issues with vaccine certs, paper or digital?

The EU Commission has been working on vaccine passport certificates since 2018. It's no secret.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001860_EN.html

BrianD3

Latest estimate for excess deaths is 2034 to 2338. Source, CSO analysis of rip.ie notices

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0430/1213042-cso-excess-deaths/

Interesting too that

The CSO also noted that the Health Protection Surveillance Centre reported that no influenza, RSV or acute respiratory infection (ARI - excluding Covid-19) outbreaks were notified to HPSC during the 2020/2021 season to date.

Some will attempt to spin this as meaning that the above quoted excess understates the number of Covid deaths because we (temporarily) eliminated the usual flu cases and flu deaths with the Covid restrictions.

Alternatively, there has been so much focus on Covid with huge numbers of tests carried out that flu cases may have been missed - unless we were automatically testing for flu every time we tested for Covid?

odyssey06

BrianD3 wrote: »

Alternatively, there has been so much focus on Covid with huge numbers of tests carried out that flu cases may have been missed - unless we were automatically testing for flu every time we tested for Covid?

I haven't heard anything to suggest the flu surveillance has differed from previous years so I think if flu had been about it would have been picked up.

This is a report from Week 6 of 2021
Of 1238 sentinel GP ILI specimens and 2067 non-sentinel respiratory specimen tested for influenza and RSV this season to date, no positive influenza or RSV detections were reported. oRhinovirus/enterovirus positive detections continue to be detected in December 2020and January 2021. Sporadic detections of adenovirus, human metapneumovirus and bocavirus were also reported this season

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/20202021season/Influenza_Surveillance_Report_Week%204%202021_FINAL.pdf

drunkmonkey

Hasn't really been picked up anywhere, has this ever happened before, that one respiratory illness completely eradicated another.
It's unusual that our last flu detection was around the time of our first Covid case. Not trying to suggest they swapped one for another as the FLU was a lot more dangerous to children, it is different in some ways.

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Hasn't really been picked up anywhere, has this ever happened before, that one respiratory illness completely eradicated another.
It's unusual that our last flu detection was around the time of our first Covid case. Not trying to suggest they swapped one for another as the FLU was a lot more dangerous to children, it is different in some ways.

Well if you are actively infected with some cold viruses you are temporarily immune from covid infection.

But for flu it appears the measures taken to combat covid have suppressed flu. Suggesting flu is less transmissable. It never really took off in asia and australia during their summer which is usual source of new strains here.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

Well if you are actively infected with some cold viruses you are temporarily immune from covid infection.

But for flu it appears the measures taken to combat covid have suppressed flu. Suggesting flu is less transmissable. It never really took off in asia and australia during their summer which is usual source of new strains here.

I've heard Luke O'Neill say that, if someone has the common cold in a house and someone else has Covid 19, the cold will win out and become the dominant virus in the house.

The flu disappeared before any measures though, we recorded out last flu case at the end of February and our first Covid case on the 28th of February.

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I've heard Luke O'Neill say that, if someone has the common cold in a house and someone else has Covid 19, the cold will win out and become the dominant virus in the house.

The flu disappeared before any measures though, we recorded out last flu case at the end of February and our first Covid case on the 28th of February.

Yes re cold but I havent heard anything to suggest covid blocks flu at immune system level.

Flu season starts finishing towards end of february in normal years though. People were already taking precautions in terms of extra handwashing before official measures kicked in also.

Probably even if we had no covid measures this winter we would have avoided flu cos of the measures taken in asia and apac.

BrianD3

RTE covered this on Six One but only after Tony Holohan's cause for concern regarding Donegal and today's death figures which have been added to the running total of 4800+.

The report on the CSO's excess deaths figure of 2300 was by Dyane Connor and no link was made back to the headline figure of 4800. On the 1 O Clock news, George Lee did at least make the link but downplayed the discrepancy, can't remember his exact words but it was along the lines of the CSO figure being slightly/a little less than the headline figure.

Unbelievable. Maybe RTE salaries should be cut by over 50% if that is such an insignificant discrepancy.

drunkmonkey

Report on gripit about the new revised figures from the CSO
We've gone from:

NPHET - 4,903
RTE - 3200
CSO - 2338

Now considering 2000 are meant to have happened in Nursing homes, it does point to complete incompetence across Government and Public Health.
https://gript.ie/cso-numbers-even-with-two-winter-peaks-are-covid-excess-deaths-any-worse-than-bad-flu-season/

There's another thing quite obvious, the ordinary man/woman's odds of picking this up in the community and dying are pretty non existent.

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Report on gripit about the new revised figures from the CSO
We've gone from:

NPHET - 4,903
RTE - 3200
CSO - 2338

Now considering 2000 are meant to have happened in Nursing homes, it does point to complete incompetence across Government and Public Health.
https://gript.ie/cso-numbers-even-with-two-winter-peaks-are-covid-excess-deaths-any-worse-than-bad-flu-season/

There's another thing quite obvious, the ordinary man/woman's odds of picking this up in the community and dying are pretty non existent.

Not sure how you make that out.

The excess deaths are the ones in the community.
Of the difference between nphet figures and excess mortality nursing home patients are likely to account for significant proportion.
You are trying to spin it both ways.

Plus your use of the term ordinary person is rather thoughtless and offensive no?
Is someones 80 year old parent not ordinary and worthy of concern?

Anyone who talks about a bad flu season in comparison to covid without referencing tge scale of the measures to suppress it in the community is being dishonest and pushing an agenda.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

Not sure how you make that out.

The excess deaths are the ones in the community.

Plus your use of the term ordinary person is rather thoughtless and offensive no?
Is someones 80 year old parent not ordinary and worthy of concern?

Excess deaths are excess deaths, we don't not count them just because they happened in different settings, how did you think we did.

Your offended:eek:

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Excess deaths are excess deaths, we don't not count them just because they happened in different settings, how did you think we did.

Your offended:eek:

Where did the excess deaths occur?
Either they occurred in the community or nursing homes but for all of them it cant be both.

Your are trying to 'other' large numbers of people with your use of the term ordinary. Its an offensive argument implying people of a certain age or condition are irrelevent.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

You are trying to spin it both ways.

Your trying to spin everything one way always, then you talk about agenda, I'm just curious who's payroll your on.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

Where did the excess deaths occur?
Either they occurred in the community or nursing homes but for all of them it cant be both.

Of course it's both, an excess death is an excess death location, age, cause all irrelevant for the purpose of counting.
They've pulled RIP data which does not provide age.

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Your trying to spin everything one way always, then you talk about agenda, I'm just curious who's payroll your on.

I dont need to be paid to challenge falsehoods.
Your argument is false because you have misunderstood the statistics you are using.

You talked about nursing homes.
You talked about the community.
You talked about excess deaths.

Where did the excess deaths occur?

You dont know so how can you say they didnt happen in the community.
So how can you say chances of death in the community are almost zero?

And to compare the chances of death versus flu without recognising the measures to suppress it is a dishonest argument. The article you quoted is dishonest.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

I dont need to be paid to challenge falsehoods.
Your argument is false because you have misunderstood the statistics you are using.

You talked about nursing homes.
You talked about the community.
You talked about excess deaths.

Where did the excess deaths occur?

You dont know so how can you say they didnt happen in the community.
So how can you say chances of death in the community are almost zero?

We know with the timescale they're using roughly 2000 Covid recorded deaths occured in Nursing homes, take that figure off the excess deaths.
When you take those two figures from each other excess deaths aren't really a thing outside nursing homes.
The point is that the Government screwed up and especially Tony & Co. They tell us constantly it's up to us to save lives when they didn't even try and truth be told they're partially responsible for them.
It looks like NPHET have been telling porky's about Covid deaths. Spin that.

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We know with the timescale they're using roughly 2000 Covid recorded deaths occured in Nursing homes, take that figure off the excess deaths.
When you take those two figures from each other excess deaths aren't really a thing outside nursing homes.
The point is that the Government screwed up and especially Tony & Co. They tell us constantly it's up to us to save lives when they didn't even try and truth be told they're partially responsible for them.
It looks like NPHET have been telling porky's about Covid deaths. Spin that.

On what grounds can you assign all the excess deaths to nursing homes? You state this with zero justification.
There is spin and porkys on this thread alright and thats a bright shining one.

Plus the deaths that did occur are a factor of the restrictions to suppress it.

drunkmonkey

odyssey06 wrote: »

On what grounds can you assign all the excess deaths to nursing homes? You state this with zero justification.
There is spin and porkys on this thread alright and thats a bright shining one.

Plus the deaths that did occur are a factor of the restrictions to suppress it.

Terrible posting by you in fairness, you didn't read the article presented no counter explanation besides restrictions work. Maybe go back and read the article and take another run at it as your just waffling falsehoods and bordering on slander.(porky's, offensive etc).

pjohnson

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Terrible posting by you in fairness, you didn't read the article presented no counter explanation besides restrictions work. Maybe go back and read the article and take another run at it as your just waffling falsehoods and bordering on slander.(porky's, offensive etc).

Your source is GRIPT. Dya really want to go on about slander and waffling falsehoods.

drunkmonkey

pjohnson wrote: »

Your source is GRIPT. Dya really want to go on about slander and waffling falsehoods.

No the source is NPHET, CSO and RTE, that article doesn't report anything false I'd does ask the right question though, something we won't see on RTE until tribunal time.

[Deleted User]

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Terrible posting by you in fairness, you didn't read the article presented no counter explanation besides restrictions work. Maybe go back and read the article and take another run at it as your just waffling falsehoods and bordering on slander.(porky's, offensive etc).

An article that ended “a reckoning is coming”. Sure lets take that as something other the base misrepresentative nonsense that it is.

Europe or Euronomo monitoring area more specifically had 500k excess deaths and 550k Covid deaths. All the Irish excess death data shows is show the measures here were more successful than we thought

Amadan Dubh

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Death figures reported by Nphet “do not have a scientific basis”, according to the Mayo coroner Patrick O’Connor.

He claims that many of those recorded as having died from Covid-19 were already suffering with other underlying illnesses that may have caused their deaths.

O’Connor, who acts as a public information officer for the Coroners Society of Ireland, said that recording Covid-19 as the principal cause of death when a person was already terminally ill raised questions about the accuracy of the figures.

Mayo coroner questions Nphet’s figures for Covid deaths
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/mayo-coroner-questions-nphets-figures-for-covid-deaths-40326117.html

It does appear like he's correct, surprised he's the first to speak out we're a long way into this, why would the NPHET try and make the situation look worse than it is.

Not really news. The median age of deaths from covid being higher than the median life expectancy says it all about covid deaths. But the whole issue with covid is making sure the obese and other vulnerable can get treatment in hospital should they need it. All of us will probably get covid at some stage, that isn't the issue and we know it is a respiratory illness which can cause flu like symptoms in most cases where symptoms show.

odyssey06

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Not really news. The median age of deaths being higher than the median life expectancy from covid says it all about covid deaths. But the whole issue with covid is making sure the obese and other vulnerable can get treatment in hospital should they need it. All of us will probably get covid at some stage, that isn't the issue.

Plus... when discussing life expectancy need to be clarifying if it is life expectancy at birth or life expectancy at age attained.

Amadan Dubh

odyssey06 wrote: »

Plus... when discussing life expectancy need to be clarifying if it is life expectancy at birth or life expectancy at age attained.

Yes of course. I think someone living to 80 should have a life expectancy of another 10 years. But there is also a factor of state of health to go along with the life expectancy at a certain age. A man with Alzheimer in a care home at the age of 82 is unlikely to have the same life expectancy than an old person living at home at the same age. Clinical underlying conditions present in over 90% of deaths is an important stat here.

odyssey06

drunkmonkey wrote: »

No the source is NPHET, CSO and RTE, that article doesn't report anything false I'd does ask the right question though, something we won't see on RTE until tribunal time.

This is a fundamentally dishonest statement for obvious reasons as it does not acknowledge that the restrictions were put on place precisely for the purpose of suppressing excess deaths.

"What should be questioned however is how the pandemic was used to justify a lengthy and massively harmful lockdown when the numbers seem to show that the excess deaths were, in fact, no worse than a bad flu season."

drunkmonkey

raind wrote: »

An article that ended “a reckoning is coming”. Sure lets take that as something other the base misrepresentative nonsense that it is.

You think they'll all get a free pass when this blows over, someone is going to be on the hook for this calamity by public health and government. What happened is criminal.

odyssey06

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Yes of course. I think someone living to 80 should have a life expectancy of another 10 years. But there is also a factor of state of health to go along with the life expectancy at a certain age. A man with Alzheimer in a care home at the age of 82 is unlikely to have the same life expectancy than an old person living at home at the same age. Clinical underlying conditions present in over 90% of deaths is an important stat here.

True. Which speaks to the point I made that we would expect the excess deaths to be more likely present in those living in the community rather than those already in nursing homes requiring enhanced daily care.