FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881722#Comment_122881722

FGs asylum policy is broadly aligned with II now.

Harris is certianly much tougher on the subject than Leo was.

Harris is trying to discourage asylum seekers by reducing ukranian benefits and is now saying that only refugees that work will qualify for social housing.

He is also talking about setting up deportation planes.

Lots of similarities between Harris and II on immigration, Fitzmaurice said the very same thing himself last week.

I think you could be right with a FFG + II coaltion. That works, but how many seats are II predicted? I dont think it will be in the region of 10, which is probably what FFG will need.

But if II can get 5 to 10 seats, game on, for sure.

Labour are more likley to get 10 seats, which is why I think FFG+LAB is the most likely outcome.

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122880905#Comment_122880905

I still have a lot of friends in Fine Gael from my days when I was a member. I don't know a single one who's enthusiastic about Simon Harris.

I don't know why he was ever allowed to become party leader. His incompetent handling of the National Children's Hospital alone should have been enough to bar him. This is Ireland though, where we seem to be quite happy to reward mediocrity and failure.

Hopefully the electorate won't fall for it on the day.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881819#Comment_122881819

We're letting close to 30,000 asylum seekers into the country this year, literally the highest number in the history of the state. And are only deporting 6% of asylum seekers who've claims have failed and who have been issued deportation orders.

FG and Simon Harris' asylum policy is very obviously not "tougher" (or working) in any way shape or form. The facts speak for themselves.

II's asylum policy is much more restrictive than FGs. I'd recommend you actually read the manifestos.

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881819#Comment_122881819

Harris is certianly much tougher on the subject than Leo was.

Harris is trying to discourage asylum seekers by reducing ukranian benefits and is now saying that only refugees that work will qualify for social housing.

This is just not true.

Harris was on Sky News the other night boasting about all the billions he and Roderic O' Gorman have spent on developing the "infrastructure" to handle more asylum cases.

The two lads are peas in a pod, completely 100% open borders, that is why they are in a coalition government together!

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881861#Comment_122881861

The numbers coming in have trended downwards since Harris took over.

30k was possible earlier in the year; in reality, this year will end with only 20k.

There were only 16.6k at the end of October.

Michael Fitzmaurice literally said the FG immigration stance is very similar, if not copied, vs II.

How many seats are II predicted, do you know?

SF arent going to reduce asylum immigration anyway, so pivoting away from FFG does not solve your issue.

FFG+II is actually a good bet, if people wanted to see asylum immigration reduce, I just doubt the seat count for II would be high enough, but I could be wrong there.

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122880481#Comment_122880481

They wont reach those numbers next year, there isn't a site in the country that has infastructure issues with ESB and Irish Water, the site reaches its limit before it has to stop building on. Massive under investment in infrastructure will bring building to a crawl next year. Not my opinion, the opinion of numerous builders and small developers I know.

MM the most flip flop policitician around, you couldn't trust a word he says. He''ll do business with SF if he has to, to be Taoiseach.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881944#Comment_122881944

I'd say 40k is well in reach in 2025, there are loads of apartments under construction in Dublin now and the pipeline for projects under construction can certianly deliver 40k+.

If SF and FG broadly have the same seat count, why on earth would FF choose SF over FG?

Especially after MM has said he wont partner with SF and their housing policies are diametrically opposed!

It isnt going to happen, not this time around.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881819#Comment_122881819

That's because they robbed the Indy Ireland manifesto a week ago!! They have no ideas themselves. FG had no policy at all and yet you loved them. You put so much faith in a copy and paste from a week ago??

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882057#Comment_122882057

The point is they are aligned. They could form a govt, if II have enough seats.

FFG also support the nitrate derogation, something II obviously want also.

Cluedo Monopoly

Can someone help me post this Twitter link? Not sure how it works now.

Independent Ireland on X: "Fine Gael Manifesto: Imitation or Inspiration? Independent Ireland Responds. Independent Ireland is astounded by Fine Gael’s 2024 General Election Manifesto, which appears to replicate Independent Ireland’s policies word for word. This blatant imitation highlights what we’ve https://t.co/J3SkyFwkDc" / X

Independent Ireland is astounded by Fine Gael’s 2024 General Election Manifesto, which appears to replicate Independent Ireland’s policies word for word. This blatant imitation highlights what we’ve long maintained: Independent Ireland’s common-sense solutions are what Ireland needs.

Party leader Michael Collins TD said: “The Fine Gael manifesto is quite incredible considering we have been offering these solutions for months and were ignored, or worse, accused of putting forward "extreme" policies. They have obviously realised we had our finger on the pulse, we’ll take it as a compliment. Independent Ireland leads with solutions long before others even see the problems."

Michael Fitzmaurice TD raised concerns about lax immigration policies six months ago, and our solutions were dismissed as ‘extreme.’ Now, Fine Gael isn’t just eating our lunch—they’re taking the whole menu.”

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881944#Comment_122881944

The biggest slow down to building is TD and parties rejecting project

On a large scale site connections to ESB and Irish water are not hte issue, years spent in court are

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882086#Comment_122882086

I think if you replace 'x' with 'twitter' in the url your link will appear in tweet form in your post

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882086#Comment_122882086

Here you go! This posting is in no way an endorsement of the party!

https://twitter.com/independent_ire/status/1858178652661289298

If your on desktop use the 'embed post' option. Scroll backup and paste the url provided!

Can't believe, I am still giving instructions for 'Xitter'!

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882685#Comment_122882685

Thanks Corkie, I am not on Twitter. People send me these links.

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882722#Comment_122882722

Just tried in a incognito window and could still do it! Click the 3 dots on the top of the post!

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882086#Comment_122882086

Whats the point here?

Do you want the stronger asylum immigration controls or not?

If people want stricter immigration controls, its clear that FG are offering them, regardless of how similar the policies are to II.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122882848#Comment_122882848

The very simple point is that they did a copy and paste job in the week before an election to con the likes of you. They haven't done any thinking on the subject themselves and they probably won't implement a single thing. They've had 5 years to implement an immigration policy, their best effort is to rob one temporarily.

If you offer your vote that easily, I can't help you.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122883269#Comment_122883269

So you agree with the II immigration policy, but not with FG, who, by your own admission, now have basically the same policy?

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881928#Comment_122881928

2024 is on track to be literally the highest ever level of yearly asylum seekers arriving in Ireland, the numbers are not trending downwards at all. The figure is up almost 50% on 2023 alone, heres an article from 3 weeks ago:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/international-protection-applicants-to-exceed-a-record-of-20000-this-year/a888213164.html

The real word statistics are really very clear on this - Harris, McEntee, and FG are directly responsible for letting more asylum seekers into Ireland than ever before. And that number is still increasing dramatically each year.

The idea that re-electing them will result in a change to this state of affairs is just not logical or fact based - all we'll get is a continuation of the current policy failure. They've had 5 years in power to do something about this and haven't, why on earth would you assume that will change?

II are projected at 5-10 seats. More than enough to get some of their core policies implemented (ie reducing numbers of asylum seekers), as we saw with the damage the Greens did in the current government.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122883812#Comment_122883812

The highest numbers in 2024 vs previous years, yes; but nowhere near the 30k that was touted earlier in the year.

Increased asylum migration is a global phenomenon. The UK is seeing the same thing, as well as countless other countries. Its not happening in Ireland alone.

If II can get 5 to 10 seats, you could see a FFG+II coalition. The current FG manifesto aligns with II on asylum immigration.

It could happen, but II would probably need closer to 10 than 5, as FG probably wont get the 48 seats predicted.

If FFG can get 80 seats, II could get them over the line with 8 to 10 seats & you would have your asylum policy.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122886973#Comment_122886973

Yes, so you admit 2024 is actually the highest ever level recorded of asylum seekers arriving in Ireland. And a massive increase on 2023, which was a massive increase on 2022, and so on. And you're defending the asylum policy of FG, the party with primary responsibility for that state of affairs. But somehow think if FG are re-elected 2025 will be different? Real word performance speaks far louder than easily broken manifesto promises.

Increased asylum migration is not an unsolvable global phenomenon. Denmark had 22,000 asylum seekers a year arriving in 2015, but brought in effective measures to reduce it, and arrivals dropped by 90% by 2017. Denmark is a liberal, EU member, well run, Northern European, similar sized and economic prosperity country subject to to every "international obligation" that Ireland is.

There has been nothing stopping our government copying the Danish measures overnight, at the stroke of a pen at any point in the last 3 years - they're eminently copiable, and have been proven to work in the real world. But our government hasn't done so, because they've been proven completely incompetent on the immigration issue.

Helen McEntee was on RTE last night claiming we have a record of every failed asylum seeker leaving the country, until Peadar Tobin pulled out a Parliamentary Question she had replied to recently claiming she had no record of the exact same thing. She has no idea where literally thousands of asylum seekers who's claims have failed, for reasons including criminality, are today in Ireland. Shes clearly utterly incompetent and not in control of the problem.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122887432#Comment_122887432

The manifesto FG have released for this upcoming election is much aligned with Independent Ireland; thats the point I am making.

If you want II to implment their policy, they will need to be part of a govt.

If they dont go in with FFG, they wont realistically get into power and their policy wont be implemented.

I dont disagree with your points on Denmark, but if you want a tougher irish policy implemented, the FG or II manifesto would need to be rolled out.

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122887432#Comment_122887432

Mc Entee needs gone after this election. Definitely not in a ministerial position at the very least.

A speil of utter crap every so often trying to pass herself doesnt cut the mustard anymore.

Bogey Lowenstein

I hope Roderick O'Gorman is shown the door after the election. I couldn't get over the brass neck of him lying about his multi-language tweet.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122888482#Comment_122888482

You're pointing to the new FG manifesto as evidence of things they will definitely do as if its some sort of believable fact, when we have exact real world experience of them doing the exact opposite when in government for the past 5 years. Simon Harris is the Taoiseach, and Helen McEntee the Minister for Justice - the buck stops there.

Real world actions far out weigh manifesto promises. And FG have utterly failed at controlling immigration in the real world.

II are just as likely to go in with FF&SF as FF&FG. And polls show very clearly that SF's voter base is the most anti-immigration of any of the major parties, far more anti-immigration than FG's vote base. That will be reflected in actual government policies.

A FF/SF/II government would be the toughest on immigration that we have any hope of getting.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122891853#Comment_122891853

FF wont go in with SF currently, we have been saying same for months now.

The FG manifesto on asylum immigration is clearly tougher than their current and previous policy. No reason to think they wont implement it.

Harris is only 7 months in charge and has made strides from the outset to tighten asylum immigration. If II were part of govt and driving the change, I dont see Harris or MM pushing back too much on these policies at all now, especially now that they are aligned.

0ph0rce0

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122892004#Comment_122892004

What has he done to tighten asylum immigration?

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122892070#Comment_122892070

The new manifesto is very similar to Independent Irelands manifesto.

There is a clear intention to tighten up, if FG are back in govt.

JP Liz V1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122881991#Comment_122881991

Didn't FF say the same about FG before GE 20, "no way they'd go into government with them"

Under FG and especially Harris, the health system here is terrible, all health services are bad, Harris should take accountability, he is an incompetent gob$hite

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122893252#Comment_122893252

More to be done, I agree.

But Culinane with a fantasy SF budget that would go up in smoke in no time?

Better the devil you know in this case.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122892004#Comment_122892004

FF strenuously said in early 2020 they wouldn't go into government with FG. How did that work out?

FF will go in with whoever the electoral maths say they need to go in with.

FG haven't have been responsible for the period of the loosest ever immigration policy in Irish history. Thats every reason to think they won't implement a tough asylum policy, because their actions in power speak far louder than claims in a manifesto that they'll easily ignore.

2024 is going to be the year of the highest numbers of asylum seekers accepted into Ireland in recorded history. The figures are very clear - FG are not "making strides", unless you think letting in tens of thousands of asylum seekers a year is "making strides". Its a proven track record of utter failure of immigration control.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122897011#Comment_122897011

You draw reference to the previous FG policy only.

The new manifesto is stricter and we will probably find out if they can action it over the next 5 yrs, as they are likely to return to govt.

I wouldnt put any faith in SF improving matters anyway.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122893252#Comment_122893252

A little thing called covid came around

SF who "won" the election as they claimed ran for the hills

FG had already said thye would go into opposition

SF had no intention of creating a government as they didnt want to govern during covid. They met the Green Party before anyone else and then disappeared

SO what FF said prior to the election when out the window when the entire country was in lockdown.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122900026#Comment_122900026

what FF said prior to the election when out the window when the entire country was in lockdown.

Would have had to anyway, government could only be formed on the numbers by two out of three from FG, FF & SF. Once FF decisively closed the door on SF government had to be FFG in some shape or form…