FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691914#Comment_121691914

There isn't a chance that the Greens will go into coalition with Sinn Fein unless Sinn Fein change huge parts of their policy on climate change. SF are effectively climate change deniers.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692166#Comment_121692166

Are you joking?

FFG led govt is the most likley outcome.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121683963#Comment_121683963

Indeed..

I have expected that outcome for a year or so but it looks even more likley now.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121683536#Comment_121683536

Housing will take a while to catch up, bur almost 35k homes were built last year and it will be more again this year.

The numbers are moving in the right direction and a lot of commercial construction labour will pivot to residential over the coming years.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691934#Comment_121691934

Are you sure about that? Never underestimate the lure of a ministerial merc...

https://www.independent.ie/life/along-came-holly-i-wouldnt-say-id-never-talk-to-fine-gael-it-would-depend-on-the-election-results/a2114702992.html

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692813#Comment_121692813

So are FF. Didn't stop them. FG at least admit climate change, but actually don't give much of a toss about stopping it either.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692899#Comment_121692899

Fairly sure. Although if they were given the right Depts they might consider it but I doubt FG would let that happen. Cant imagine they'll go into government with them so they can listen to the justice Minsiter call people from the North inner city scumbags and talking about "cracking down on aslyum seekers."

Never say never in politics but it's a long shot.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692985#Comment_121692985

What if FF & FG are unable to put together a workable government without the involvement of the Soc Dems, or FF makes that call anyway and declares it's off to cut a deal with SF? Would that be a price worth paying for the Soc Dems so they could avoid supping with the FG devil?

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692832#Comment_121692832

We shall see. Not a hope. FG won't be able to buy a transfer. They are completely toxic.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693034#Comment_121693034

Of course it would. A SF/FF government would deliver on more of SD goals than a FG one with SDs in it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692985#Comment_121692985

Sinn Fein oppose the government's current policies on climate change, which are largely Green driven.

So, unless you are telling me that SF are also making up policy on climate change, and don't really believe what they say, it is impossible to see how the Greens can join a coalition with SF.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693541#Comment_121693541

Sinn Fein have a problem, a massive one, joining with any party. The online supporters group have spent years now insulting everyone online if they decide they are a supporter of any party. So in the case of FF the party will need to get the grass roots onboard if they wanted to join SF. Based on what I can see and have been saying it for years that will not happen.

The Greens have got more abuse than most from SF and their supporters. So again why would they bother?

FG have been clear they have no interest.

It is funny how the mood is changing, just this morning on social media which is usual full of how great SF is, you start to see people going against SF and saying they have lost the advantage. One person saying the last election was SF peak. Now these people are not "experts" or anything but it goes along with the shift we are seeing away from SF.

SF of course could change all this, if they come out and swing hard against immigration that might move the needle but I can't see it.

In terms of climate, SF haven't a clue what they want, the sitting on the fence has worked for a while but now they need to make decisions and that is when the incompetence of the party will come out.

Let them bang away but at this stage SF should shut down the media clowns they have used for years, then swing on immigration and hope people believe them if they want to get into government

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693702#Comment_121693702

I have said for quite a while that the electorate only begins to think about government a year before an election, and the mind is only really focussed in the last month or so before the election takes place. We are beginning to see the shifts now. Election polls were steady for a couple of years, but now they will shift like never before.

The problem for Sinn Fein is that people start to look at the opposition and ask themselves what ideas do they have to make things better. So far, Sinn Fein haven't put forward a single big idea. Before the last election, the Greens went big on ideas for climate change, and won well. It is hard to think of a single idea associated with Sinn Fein.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693541#Comment_121693541

It's really very easy to see how they'll go in together. Even the FF party have disagreed with the Greens position on climate change and there in Government with the Greens.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693339#Comment_121693339

They are polling as the 2nd party.

FFG combined are far larger than SF.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698078#Comment_121698078

We shall see. Polls do not reflect our PR voting system. I see them getting around 20 seats.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121698484#Comment_121698484

...theres clearly gonna be significant loses for both ffg, but that dont mean theyll all eventually go to sf, gonna be an interesting ge....

WishUWereHere

Latest opinion poll:

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0203/1430341-opinion-poll/

Not much change, though how Labour have a % increase is a bit bewildering.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121718395#Comment_121718395

These are First Preference Vote opinion polls and Labour. and some of the other micro parties are just background noise at this stage and will gain and lose percentage points repeatedly while staying with in a small range of percentages. The poll also asked about switching votes and 37% of FF voters and 35% of FG voters said they could vote for other parties. There's also the problem of about a third of current FG TDs retiring and not running in the next GE. There's no guarantee that FG will hold these seats. The Immigration issue has already started to affect FF/FG/Greens/SF. The Independents at 18% now have more support than FF and could, based on the Margin of Error, have also overtaken FG.

Regards...jmcc

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121723666#Comment_121723666

Welcome back JMCC, been a while since we read Your thoughtful insights.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121718395#Comment_121718395

The downward trend in the Sinn Fein vote continues.

On the basis of this and other polls, the current government plus social democrats looks like the favoured outcome.

_Kaiser_

The parties must really be getting worried about the upcoming elections...

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/boost-for-families-as-child-benefit-extension-to-be-brought-forward/a1474954262.html

Flagged in the Budget last year, it had been initially planned to extend child benefit up until a young person’s 19th birthday from September 2024.

However, Ms Humphreys will tell cabinet colleagues today that the Department of Social Protection is now in a position to implement the measure from May 1 – which will coincide with the local and European elections the following month.

Today’s expected announcement will give such households an extra four months – or a cash boost of €560 – that they had not bargained for.

.. won't surprise me if they announce a general election in the coming months too, but they'll probably wait till closer to May to see what way the wind is blowing.

ALS

Will the child benefit be backdated my sons benefit was stopped the day of his birthday , he will be doing his leaving cert in June and turns 18 in July?

Cluedo Monopoly

Well done FG, you wont even get the children's hospital done for the election...

A runaway project that has cost the taxpayer way more than "planned". Final cost still unknown!

Cost of National Children's Hospital rises to €2.24bn (rte.ie)

Cost of National Children's Hospital rises to €2.24bn, says Minister

While the final cost of the hospital has yet to be established, it brings the overall total to around €2bn.

The Government announced enhanced capital and budget sanctions to bring the approved budget to €2.24 billion.

The original estimated cost was €450m in 2017.

The extra costs had previously been blamed on inflation.

The hospital is estimated to be at over 90% completion and the department said new hospital is due to be completed by Q4 of this year and, following operational commissioning, open in "mid-2025".

Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Paschal Donohoe said the State is making every effort to get value for taxpayers when it comes to completing the hospital.

--------------

The dishonesty and ineptness is astounding.

US3

Michael Martin said lessons will be learned when asked about the children's hospital. It's as if they are trolling people.

Blut2

Heads should be rolling over that. Years of delays, billions of euros of cost overruns, and its now literally the most expensive hospital ever built in the history of humanity, anywhere in the world.

Its rank incompetence. But theres no chance anyone who was in charge of decision making on it over the last decade will be held to account.

_Kaiser_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763493#Comment_121763493

We don't "do" political or ministerial accountability in Ireland. At best they'll just go quiet for a few days or week until the "noise" dies down.

It's funny really. For all the sneering at the UK over Brexit and Boris over the last few years, at least their politicians will generally resign or be made to when stuff like this happens.

But we know best as usual I guess!

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121760842#Comment_121760842

The measure will apply to all eligible 18-year-olds who are in full-time education or who have a disability.

Strange this wasn't already in place to be honest.

Cluedo Monopoly

The ongoing RTE debacle and the NCH is more evidence that we live in a banana republic where the culture of corruption, waste and cronyism is tolerated at a high level. Will there ever be accountability for these disasters?

Podge_irl

A banana republic 🙄

Actual banana republics exist in the world and they look absolutely nothing like Ireland. Why can't people just criticise the government instead of engaging in ridiculous hyperbole?

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121767955#Comment_121767955

"a small state that is politically unsable as a result of the domination of its economy by a single export controlled by foreign capital."

That's the description of a banana republic. I know these words sound fancy but it's worth checking the actual meaning of them.

Swing and a miss on that one.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121769741#Comment_121769741

I thought you had me on Ignore Clo?

I'd say you have the Children's hospital and RTE scandal on ignore too!

Catherine Martin as useless as ever on the RTE issue. It takes a toothless committee to establish the facts for the cabinet despite all her lengthy reports and strong words. The government have been exceptionally weak on RTE. Good luck collecting the license fee revenue before the elections!

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121770844#Comment_121770844

Keep on swinging 😂

Just firing out everything from the RTE website in the hope something might stick. Why would I put you on ignore, it's too funny watching you fumble about every few days with the latest faux outrage to post about.

With the amount of copying and pasting from RTE website I hope you are paying your TV license.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121771348#Comment_121771348

The truth hurts Clo.

Only one link from RTE posted this week but keep up the honest posting. 😉 It was about the Children's hospital. You were happy to put the blindfold on for that one yet again.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121771861#Comment_121771861

"the truth hurts"?

What truth? I can read RTE myself and well aware of the Children Hospital. I said at the time once it was moved from Blanchardstown it would be a disaster and I am right.

I don't feel the need to copy & paste from RTE as if you are adding some new massive information that everyone is not already aware of.

At least I am aware of the issues with the government, no need for a blindfold. I have yet to see you post anything critical about the party or whoever you voted for. Who is wearing a blindfold?

Keep on swinging and some stage you might get a hit 😂

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121772256#Comment_121772256

Waffler.

How many RTE links did I post exactly? Go on, be honest. Count them.

I voted Independent and she is doing a fine job.

Your FFG can do no wrong. Long week 🔦

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121772598#Comment_121772598

As I said, who is wear the blindfold 👍️

Seem to be going down one of your blind alleys. Leave you to it, till the next copy & paste 😂

Cluedo Monopoly

Brian Stanley (SF & PAC) makes a very good point about Coveney

Call for details of Coveney's exit package to be revealed (rte.ie)

PAC chair calls for details of Coveney's exit package to be revealed.

He criticised what he described as the "drip-feed of information" coming from RTÉ, and said that all of the information should be put on the table.

"This is not a secret society, this is a public sector broadcaster being funded by the public ... There is a moral obligation for it all to be put on the table," he said.

Social Democrats TD, Róisín Shortall, has said that Mr Coveney should offer up the relevant information about his exit package.

------------------

Why all the secrecy? This is a public sector organisation. This must be very embarrassing for his brother, the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment. I thought Fine Gael were sorting these golden handshakes out when they produced the "New Politics" document. What legal threat has Coveney invoked on Bakhurst?

jmayo

It's surprising we haven't had the usual party hacks/civil server Depts/HSE connected ones on telling us how wonderful the new and world's most expensive hospital by miles will be and how the government are as shocked as anyone at the shenanigans in RTE which were of course all down to the malevolent Dee Forbes.

Of course the name Coveney in the mix means that Fine Gaelers will have to lay low around these parts until the connection to party royalty blows over.

WishUWereHere

Meanwhile, seems not all is kosher in the government ranks

https://www.thejournal.ie/drogheda-d-hotel-injunctive-action-6301516-Feb2024/

And before someone says but FO’D is retiring, He still has no qualms in calling a spade a spade.

WishUWereHere

I have read RO’G has little chance of being re-elected. I’d say his actions here have certainly nailed his political coffin.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121777319#Comment_121777319

It won't be his stance on immigration that will see him not getting elected though. The last election he got in ahead of Ruth Coppinger and that was thanks to transfer from Labour.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121777319#Comment_121777319

Not what this guy is saying, although he's not guaranteeing him

https://irishelectionprojections.com/dublin-west/

the addition of a seat to the constituency is apparently giving ROG a fighting chance

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121777560#Comment_121777560

This person certainly does a detailed analysis.

i saw this on the menu page:

https://irishelectionprojections.com/posts-and-poll-analysis/

He predicted 6 green seats for October but his January prediction is halved to 3. Whether he’s right or wrong, interesting 12 months ahead.

marno21

Most of the hatred for Roderic O'Gorman comes from outside his constituency. There's a lot of hatred for the Green Party in rural Ireland but in most cases these constituencies don't have a Green TD to vote out. They can take out their hatred of the GP on FF/FG TDs but that won't affect ROG's ability to get re-elected.

Smacks of what we've seen in the US with visceral hatred of Democrats in R+30 districts (which would never have a Dem Rep to vote out) and hatred of Trump in cities (where Hillary/Biden won by 30 points).

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778633#Comment_121778633

Replace Green Party with Labour, PD's etc etc in terms of a small party who go into coalition and a section of Ireland decide they are the root of all their issues.

I don't know how many Green Party people ran around Ireland but I would expect most areas are covered. Just some people are too busy waffling about "leafy streets of Dublin" to actually listen to them

WishUWereHere

After the shenanigans over the years by Gilmore, Burton,, Rabbitte, Kelly & now the inaction of Bacik, I ( having been a lifelong labour supporter) I switched to the SD’s. I thought they spoke a lot of sense.

Then Holly Cairns took over. However after watching/reading this

https://www.thejournal.ie/holly-cairns-speech-national-conference-social-democrats-6302676-Feb2024/

I despair at the standard of politicians coming through the ranks in this country. She ( rightly ) criticised the coalition but offered absolutely no alternative.

i got news for you Holly: I’m one of those disillusioned voters BUT you are not appealing to me.

I despair at the standard of politician in Ireland.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121783164#Comment_121783164

I thought she spoke well.

At this point, all I want is an honest politician to vote for. There doesn't seem to a single honest politician in the government.

Honesty, integrity and honour is all I am not looking for at this point. The 6 SD TDs seem to be honest but we'll have to see how they get on in government and whether the rot in Irish politics infects them.

I used to think many TDs in FG were honest too. That time has long passed.

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121783242#Comment_121783242

I’d agree CM with Your post aside from Her not offering reasonable alternatives. But what bugs me with the SD’s is this persistent rumour that just refuses to go away that they may/may not join up with Labour.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121783268#Comment_121783268

Labour are keeping that rumour alive because they are toast otherwise. They sold their soul long ago when Gilmore was in charge.

I think the SDs will work hard in government. The FFG cabinet ministers have given up, they are afraid to do or plan anything in case it loses more votes. And it's clear that they couldn't care less about taxpayer money waste (RTE payouts/Children's Hospital). They are completely ineffectual across the board. Leo/Michael are definitely eyeing up a job in EU or UN.

And the green ministers have been woeful. Just useless. Catherine Martin in particular.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762957#Comment_121762957

Governments here have been learning lessons since 2001 when they spend millions on e voting machines that probably ended up in a metal recycling centre.