Fairyhouse Day 1 and elsewhere.

maximo31

Knock yourselves out.......

x PyRo

All at Musselburgh for moi.

1.50 - Going to chance Eton College. 4lb lower than his last turf start which was a win! Flopped on AW since but might just be better away from it (last run was so bad something must have been at him). Slightly worried he'll be forced to go too quick to sit handy but happy enough to gamble at 12's.

3.00 - Son And Sannie is one I want to follow for a few spins. Don't think we've seen the best of him yet and he moves like a horse who can land something like this, an Epsom Dash (if rated high enough to get in!) or something on a real speed demanding track. Has fitness to prove so might be one for again but has the plum draw, no weight (albeit John Wayne in the saddle) and should enjoy how this pans out if the splits come at the right time. 12/1.

3.35 - Alright Sunshine should be fit from hurdling, yard well able to target one at a race and I'd say this will have been in their minds for a while if the stick hopping didn't go to plan. Wouldn't be the first flat horse to come back rejuvenated after jumping and this is the most suitable flat assignment he has had in a while. Market has copped on to him and he's 7's now but I still think that could be a couple of points too large.

4.11 - Good Luck Fox is like 22/1 in a place (backed him at 14/1 yesterday!) and that's too big. He has had problems but shaped quite well at Newcastle last time, moving powerfully, hitting the front, blowing up and then rallying. Thought it had all the hallmarks of one who'd improve plenty for the spin. Now, he's close to being eligible for 0-60's so maybe his day is a couple of runs away yet but in a wide open race where anything could happen, I took a wild punt!

Good luck to anyone betting today.

FiftyP

Thoughts for today in Fairyhouse. This is the first time I wrote this up without reference to odds. Normally I’d order the horses on The Racing Post according to their number, but it’s inevitable I’d get a split second of looking at at least some of their odds, and it definitely influences me. This time the odds weren’t out (except for the last one? two? races) so it’s entirely down to me. Which shows how off the mark I am.

Fairyhouse
1.15
A maiden hurdle. Banks Boy I’m against, it just didn’t have it in its previous ride against two better horses and looked poor because of them. Caesar Rock was beaten on Similar ground by some good horses, I’m not sure it can do better but it might have an ew shot if the prices are right. Eden Flight won’t have raced on better than soft ground since a NHF three and a half years ago. You’d wonder what the horse was doing until now, at 7yo, which has to be a note against it. Edison Kent over two miles on similar ground was picking up speed towards the end. 2M4f might favour it. Salt Wind has some form on the ground, with a second in a NHF, and respectable rides at 2m4f on soft and heavy ground.

Caesar Rock 14/1 ew 3 places

1.45
Big Leg Up had a good win recently after half year on from when it was pulled up in two PTPs. The ground will have to suit it. Cloudy Tuesday is another with a win and its beaten a somewhat decent horse in Saint Benedict, albeit on heavy ground. Dylrow is an old horse with plenty done its form. The question is after being 30l back on heavy ground in a similar race can it manage in this? Its All Guesswork has taken some big shots but not performed, here it’s looking for a day out that’ll also be a win. Sizing Rome might be very excited to be back on a race track, especially after doing well around here two years ago in a handicap. This is a question of will it enjoy the experience or not, and there might be horses with a bit more in them. I’m not too sure Solomn Grundy will enjoy the ground.

Big Leg Up 12/1 ew 3 places

2.20
Between Elimay and Mount Ida in this, and I think it’s a question of which horse have you watched more of, like more, and attribute more to their performance. Mount Ida’s Cheltenham run was over a lot longer, so the step back might make a difference. I’d quite like Zarkareva to place, a very nice horse that could be flying in years to come. Her third in Thurles doesn’t tell the whole tale with a horse that wasn’t put about the best, but jumped brilliantly and who I thought was the star. On the weights I think Zarkareva can’t beat mount Ida but could take Elimay if Elimay made mistakes, and I worry about Mount Ida going on a shorter trip.

Zarkareva 16/1 ew 2 places

2.55
I like Cuneo in this. I think it was finishing strongly in its last race, and despite the weight might do better given more time to shake out its stamina. Kavanaghs Corner seems to respond well to Emma Twomey, but its win in November was at a much lower weight and a shorter distance. Its performances on yielding ground have been poor. Young Dev has fine performances in chases, but I’m not sure the ground will suit. Super Citizen should like the ground, but the distance is a different question.

Cuneo 12/1 ew 4 places (enhanced)

3.30
There’s a fair few horses in this that seem to have been guarded in races, at shorter distances and over heavier ground, that could do anything in this race, and I wouldn’t trust their form an inch, especially with the younger horses like Mullins’ Capodanno and GE/Foster’s Dunboyne. Lady Breffni has been beaten by Darrens Hope, which to me is the one horse who’s been trying to be positive in big races. I’ll go with Darrens Hope because it seems like an honest horse, but if I was looking to snatch one I’d go with a 2m4f-ish horse that’s been raced on heavy ground in lower prize races, Crosshill or Velvet Elvis, with Julies Stowaway showing what the step up from a shorter distance on heavier ground can do last February in Leopardstown with a 4th. But I am a sucker.

Darrens Hope 33/1 ew 4 places

4.05
Thosedaysaregone has history with him and a good run on the flat a month ago, so pace obviously isn’t an issue and I can’t say he’s forgotten how to jump. Eclair De Beaufeu is a deserved favourite, with the second heaviest weight but gets seven from Jordan Gainford, so everything points in its favour. Eskylane is getting the ground it wants again, whether that makes up for some recent poor runs who knows? The same could be said for Hearts Are Trumps, although it seems a much better summer runner than Eskylane with a second in Galway, a bit of a gamble to back it but it might just show up.

Thosedaysaregone 18/1 ew 4 places

SonOfGoat

4.52 Newton Abbot, Glentrool. Horse is around 11/4 and I've backed it to win. It's not a great race at all and the way I look at it is, I honestly can't see the second fav, or joint fav - Aimee De Sivola winning, I'm fairly sure that won't win, so if that wasn't in the race, what price would Glentrool be... I would have it priced around 4/6 so @ 11/4 I find it a really decent value bet. Hopefully Glentrool will win.

5.15 Fairyhouse, Letsbeclearaboutit. Horse is around 8/13. I've backed it to win and in a double with the above Glentrool.

SonOfGoat

Final bet for me.

5.20 Wolverhampton, Outback Boy. Horse is very short @ around 11/10 in a very trappy race. Strong lay bet for me.
I do think the second fav - Cosmic George will win @ around 5/2 but I'm going to play it safe and just the the fav Outback Boy.