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United Ireland Poll - please vote



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭ markodaly

    Well at least some of us are not traitors to the Republic of Ireland and denying that the Treaty is null and void because of some fantastical notions in our heads.

  • Registered Users Posts: 26,987 ✭✭✭✭ end of the road

    it is not growing at all, that is just a myth.

    it's along the lines of irish people identifying as european, they are irish first, and in northern ireland they are either irish or british first.

    there is no third identity ultimately, the choices on a UI vote will be reunification or the status quo.

    abolish the indirect subsidy to the irish pub known as MUP.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,145 ✭✭✭✭ markodaly

    Did you even read the article because it literally contradicts your entire post.

    It seems to be a habit of yours in fairness EOTR, weighing in without even realising what you are writing.

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 87,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight

    NI has PR for the MLA elections so you wouldn't be working off FPTP numbers.

    In a United Ireland there would be an extra 65 TD's just going by the numbers. You could start with the existing 18 Westminster constituencies to give you 11 of 4 seats and 7 with 3 seats.

    There's currently 90 MLA's and another 18 MP's so 108 chasing 65 seats. The Senate has 60 members from various panels. So 21/22 new senators. Perhaps a Unionist panel ? The university panel already needs opening up to other third levels. Though half of these seats were from a Protestant Uni for half the history of the state.

    If there is a federal solution then it can't be NI as it exists today as a narrow majority state as that be unfair to the minority. Though the election in May should focus minds on which would be which. And could it even be imagined that the DUP demand a federal system and then lose control of it and not have the calming influence of the 26 other counties because federal system ?

    Given the parish pump nature of our politics and groups from NI being kingmakers may work in practice better than an artificial construct.

    Let's not forget the biggest group in NI are the people that aren't in either tribe and think the economy is more important than some flegs.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    Argue with the author, not with me. There has been repeated evidence presented from numerous credible sources concerning the emergence of a third identity. Denying it is becoming increasingly difficult.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,572 ✭✭✭ Fionn1952

    The truth lies somewhere in the middle of your two positions.

    There is certainly a growing number of people identifying as Northern Irish, though it doesn't correlate with an abandonment of British or Irish identities to anywhere near the extent you like to imply, nor does it correlate in any way with support for any of the 'third solution' proposals you've come up with, the vast majority still support the GFA, there still hasn't been a flicker of support for NI Independence among that cohort.

    That being said, the post you're responding to is quite foolish. I don't recall very many people referring to themselves as Northern Irish twenty years ago.....I know plenty who do now.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    I haven't been suggesting that British or Irish identities are being abandoned.

    The way I see it is that this third identity sees Northern Irish as being their primary identity, with their other identities being secondary to a greater or lesser extent. As a result, the current status quo currently suits their particular worldview with autonomy for Northern Ireland within the UK being an acceptable position. Any move towards the elimination of devolution would be viewed with suspicion and resistance, similarly, moves towards a single unitary state on this island would have similar suspicions and resistance, as either of those options lessen the strength of the Northern Irish identity.

    One of the characteristics of this identity is respect for their multi-faceted heritage which means they won't want to offend either side. As such, you are correct that at this point in time it doesn't point towards support for any of the "third solutions". However, in the event that the size of the Northern Irish identity grows and its self-confidence increases, that questions is open and ideas for the third solution will come on the table. Furthermore, events will play a part too. If support for a united Ireland also grows, this section of society will be needed to come on board. They won't want a unitary state, so a majority for that seems ever unlikely, but they could be open to other forms including a federal state.

    That is why I have mentioned a number of possible third solutions. Remember, the current status quo is a third solution, so the next step is unlikely to be a unitary state or integration into the UK, it is likely to be another third solution.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,093 ✭✭✭✭ Junkyard Tom

    A load of waffle. The moment 'northern Irish' becomes a vehicle for partitionists' and unionists' desire to prevent this country seeing out its vision then it will be eschewed by those from a nationalist background. Keep going though, every horse you back falls flat on its face.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,493 ✭✭✭ Brucie Bonus

    The 'third solution' fantasy is the last desperate hope of the partitionist view.

    Its an opinion piece based on another person's opinion. Hardly fact.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,572 ✭✭✭ Fionn1952

    But in Blanch's defense, the, 'there's no such thing as a Northern Irish identity' fantasy is just as desperate a hope from the extremes of hardline Republicanism and Loyalism.

    The future is in the hands of the moderates; fortunately for me as a Republican there is very little being offered to moderates by Unionism. Given what has been going on with a supposed liberal Unionist like Doug Beatty the last few days (and I have plenty of time for Doug), one can only imagine the privately expressed views of self-avowedly hardline Loyalist types like the DUP and TUV.

    The future may certainly be changeable, but the Norn Irish identifying middle class woke sympathising crowd sure as sh*t aren't going to suddenly start voting DUP/TUV in their masses.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,493 ✭✭✭ Brucie Bonus

    I find its more to do with protectionism than religion or society or allegiances. The hard-core unionists don't want to lose more power by having to deal with more equality. Nationalists IMO are happy to take equality for a UI. Unionists won't even give on recognising the Irish language. Had they treated other communities fairly we'd have had no troubles/conflict.

    As for the south, same thing as the unionists. FG/FF don't want the possibility of losing out in such a changing political landscape. Even the partition inclined can't help joining a UI to SF. Thats the fear, when in reality a UI is bigger than any one party and certainly SF. Be nice if FG and FF got behind a UI instead of having their retiring politicians lament it for cred after doing nothing for it.

    I agree, who ever wins over the moderates will win the day. Same with every election down south.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    I can’t find any evidence anywhere that the emergence of the third identity has anything to do with protectionism. In fact, it best crystallises itself in the opposite - openness - to new ideas, to rejecting sectarianism and being open to a secular society, to rejecting the bipartisan dogma and being open to new approaches, etc. etc.

    Your notion that it is do with protectionism is strange, perhaps you could link to some relevant study or article to back up these weird notions.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,493 ✭✭✭ Brucie Bonus

    I wasn't talking about the third identity, which IMO is for some a last ditch desperate hope in the face of a UI. I was talking about what he said about moderates and the future.

    I explained my opinion in the post you quoted. Maybe you could cut the innuendo.

    Post edited by Brucie Bonus on

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭ Harryd225

    The people went along with the treaty because Britain threatened “immediate and terrible war” if we didn’t.

    It was placed in articles 2 and 3 of the Irish constitution that Northern Ireland belonged to the Republic of Ireland, this was only removed in 1998.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    A very interesting article on how to move beyond the toxic binary narrative so loved by the DUP and SF.

    "Twenty-four years after the Good Friday Agreement, much of our society remains deeply divided along sectarian lines. These overlapping societal dichotomies are reinforced by the dualism between the two largest parties, both intoxicated by their supposed ideological infallibility. Increasingly, more of us are rejecting those divides."

    The dismantling of the sectarian divide is more urgent than ever.

    "The truth is that both sides of the community are blighted by similar problems: poverty, unemployment, educational disadvantage, addiction, underinvestment and paramilitary intimidation. Furthermore, these problems might often be tackled via similar measures across the board."

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,493 ✭✭✭ Brucie Bonus

    Its a ridiculous stance. They took the land with partition. Kept it by gerrymandering and denying everyone a vote. Engaged in murder and terrorism and now we have a peace and semblance of equality, the nationalists are a problem? It would still be an apartheid state if the British were left to their own devices.

    Everyone bar the Unionists are pushing for fair play and equality.

    Unionists don't want equality, a UI will enshrine equality with no bias Tories using them for support in Westminster. They should note they can count on the monarchists among Fine Gael. Be a nice little conservative pro UK group.

  • Registered Users Posts: 345 ✭✭ orecir

    The DUP are eating themselves.

    Soon SF will rule in both the north and south and unite this island.

    It is our destiny.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭ Harryd225

    They're certainly on the right path to it so far at least.

    Sinn Fein clearly had a plan when they signed the GFA and it's clearly working.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    "It also showed 58.6% of respondents support remaining in the UK compared to 29.8% who would vote tomorrow for a united Ireland."

    "Conducted in the last two weeks of last month, 39.8% of those surveyed in this latest poll identified themselves as unionist, 26.8% as nationalist and 33.3% as neither."

    It seems a border poll and a united Ireland remain as far away as ever. Even Sinn Fein's ascendancy to First Minister will come in the context of them losing voters, not even being able to persuade their own voters to support a united Ireland.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭ Harryd225

    Nonsense, that poll was asking people if they would vote for a United Ireland tomorrow, surprisingly 30% of people said they would vote for a United Ireland with no preparation or any idea of the positives and negatives.

    A poll by Lord Ashcroft in Northern Ireland showed a majority think there should be a border poll some time in the future. If a referendum were held in 10 years time, two thirds thought it would see a vote in favor of a united Ireland.

    The decision on a referendum in the North would largely come down to the debate leading up to it on the positives and negatives, the overwhelming benefits for Northern Ireland during the debate leading up to the referendum would more than likely see the people of the North voting for a United Ireland.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    There won't be a border poll on 30%, neither will there be one on a nationalist First Minister with only 33% support.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭ Harryd225

    No one's trying to get a border poll right now.

    You can't call support for United Ireland 30% by asking people in a poll if they would vote for a United Ireland tomorrow, with no debate or any idea of the positives and negatives. I'm more than certain in the lead up to a referendum if we can convince people in the North they will be better off in a United Ireland then the referendum will pass, the result is largely going to come down to the debate.

    No one is calling for a border poll now anyway, don't worry blanch it will come, won't be long now the writing is on the wall.

  • Registered Users Posts: 53,543 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    An independence referendum was called in Scotland on 30% support for independence.

    It was called because it was politically expedient, so claiming the polls are the only cause of calling a poll is bollix and this nonsense has been called out before. The SoS (i.e. The British government) could call a poll at anytime and are legally backed up doing it by their courts.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,143 ✭✭✭ landofthetree

    I can see SF getting 50% in the assembly elections to trigger the poll.

    Brexit is highly unpopular.

    Even if SF fall short the SDLP will easily push thr nationalist vote over the 50% to trigger the poll.

    A UI poll in Sep a UI on Jan 1st 2023.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    Discredited nonsense posted again. The SoS can't call a GFA poll because there isn't a single shred of evidence that it might pass, let alone that it is likely to pass.

    If there was a poll within a month, I would see it struggle to get 20% support.

  • Registered Users Posts: 53,543 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    My own opinion is that a border poll will be called after some back channel work with Dublin. As soon as Dublin says it is ready a poll will be called. Part of the reason partitionists don't want to see SF in government I fancy.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,093 ✭✭✭✭ Junkyard Tom

    39.8% of those surveyed in this latest poll identified themselves as unionist

    60% of the population do not identify as Unionist. Those 'neithers' you're desperately attributing 'closest unionism' to are happy with the status quo, that status quo is not static, it is the rapid socioeconomic unification of our country. The vote to unify politically will be the final piece of the puzzle.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    I am not attributing closet unionism to anyone. I am reporting the polls.

    It is now becoming clearer with every successive poll that most of the people aren't interested in either of the two sectarian extremes and their whinging about constitutional issues. SF and DUP combined now have less than 50% of the vote.

  • Registered Users Posts: 53,543 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    The court found (and you know this) that the SoS does not have to evidence why he/she thinks a poll may pass. He/she is not constrained in any way shape or form.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,953 ✭✭✭✭ blanch152

    Nope, the court didn't find that. It found that you could not set standards of evidence in advance of a decision. However, as I have pointed out to you, that doesn't stop anyone from injuncting a decision to hold a border poll on the basis that it was a decision without evidence.