Sunday March 21st - The Curragh and Downpatrick on TG4

FiftyP

Seeing as none of the regulars got around to starting a thread I hope that I, a Cheltenham blow-in, amn’t being too out of line in getting one going.

Racing today from Carlisle (Racing TV), Chepstow (Racing TV) but most importantly TG4, who do more for Irish sport than RTE TV have done in years have coverage of (I think) most of the races from The Curragh (Flat) and all from Downpatrick (Jumps). They’re also on RTV, but if you have the Irish channels it’s a chance to continue the week with TG4, yet again, recognising where at least some of the Irish interest is in a television market.

TG4’s coverage begins at 1.45.

FiftyP

My absolute pile of rubbish is incoming. I wrote this when I couldn’t sleep last night between 1am and 5am. Please don’t follow anything I say unless you do your own analysis, this is just me testing myself (and I’ve been found wanting plenty of times.)

Downpatrick

2.10
No bet in this. There's too many horses with absolutely no history, too many horses never ran on yielding ground, and the horses that have some experience are over a mishmash of distances. This seems wilder than the Wexford Bumper Card yesterday where you could at least follow the money and look at the horses before the off. The fact there’s three horses opening at almost similar enough short prices should say something.

If I was to be pushed, I think Gelee Blanche, but not at 10/3 odds (probably not even at 5/1, which would mean it's drifting) Wild Rumour would be my ew bet, an older horse might just show some magic amongst an inexperienced group, if the distance isn't too short for it.

2.10
No bet in this. Maybe I'll take Gelee Blanche if it drifts, or Wild Rumour if it shortens.

2.45
I like Rasiym, to me it looks like value although at 1.18am on Sunday morning it seems every other eejit looking the night before sees the same. It’s been absent for a while, and may be gearing up for a summer. It seems to do its best work on drier ground, which we’ll have. Weight doesn’t seem to bother it, even if it has carried weight as a short odds horse. I think the trainer is gearing up for around this trip, maybe longer, with the horse being a little more experienced after it’s break. Last September it had a good result against Drop The Anchor (5 1/4 lengths behind.) I’m not too sure about Coach Carter. I don’t know if it’ll manage both the speed and the jumping. Pure Genius has only raced on heavier ground, and I think they’re struggling to find its niche. I think Mitchouka could do well but the return to hurdles seems odd. I don’t see anything in the other horses’ results to notice, so can’t make a comment.

Bets – All smaller than usual today.
2.45
Rasiym 5/1
Mitchouka 5/1

3.17
I think Drop Him In and Elderado are decent horses, but they’re also rated the best in this handicap. Elderado has to offer something after being beaten by The Shunter (of Cheltenham fame) by only 8 3/4 lengths on good ground last September. Since then it’s run on heavy ground and showed nothing (of course The Shunter might have just improved a lot in that time.) Amor Verdadero has gone over a range of grounds, at different weights, and not done well. It might be unfortunate that it UR’ed the rider in the last race when doing well, but I wonder how much that has to do with the horse having issues with the speed. Jack Kennedy should manage it beautifully, but not at its current 9/4 (into 2/1 this morning.) Walking In Memphis has a course and distance win, on similar ground, and, most tellingly, it seems to perform better coming into the summer months. Still, I’d need long odds. The reserve, Willyouwalkwithme I quite like. Owned and trained from the same fella, decent ground, switched trainers earlier in its life (I presume because the owner/trainer couldn't school it in everything himself.) At current 20/1 odds I think this horse, if someone drops out, could show it’s been looked after since the end of last October, and has been built up.

3.17
Willyouwalkwithme 18/1 ew 4 places

3.47
I don’t like any of the horses in this. I think Space Cadet at 5/1’s (now 6/1) jumping won’t hold up over the distance. In fact I get that feeling about a lot of them. Others seem too old to handle three and a half miles, especially with nothing stand-out from their careers. I feel a few horses were prepared for this race, Shady Operator being one, and at 3/1 at the time of writing this I think it’s obvious how little is actually coming up as a possibility. Frankly All Talk is 33/1 right now. I think it’s last two cases of being pulled up over hurdles, one before a break last December was to see how it’d handle them, a bit of testing the waters. I think its hurdle race in March was to build up a little front-foot speed, and to try and get it to follow the leaders around. It has much better chasing form, and I think although neither its speed or staying is superb in any situation, it’s performed decently on yielding ground, and could beat out many (presuming it makes it around.) I also think the bookies have no real clue about this one.

3.47
Frankly All Talk 28/1 ew 5 places

4.22
I’m not a fan of calling this race, but I might go for a snooze if I don’t have something to watch, and that’ll mess me up completely. It’s hard to look past Rachael Blackmore in this, she’s certainly picked rides and Midland Millie looks like she’s doing something on this ground and in the one chase. Still, after being poor on heavy ground, and with the second highest weight it’s a lot to ask. That goes for all of the first five horses for me, there’s flaws whether they’re unproven, inconsistent, and even when they show something they’re not the best and I worry that the weight they have to carry will upset things if someone sets a speed on yielding ground. The bottom half of the horses have the opposite problem, no weight to carry but not even uneven results, just poor ones. There’s a lot of trainers looking to eke out a win with both the low handicap, plus jockey allowances. That’s never a vote of confidence while Soi Cowboy, Midland Millie and West is Best all carry the top three weights with no allowances. I find myself going somewhere in the middle. Fox Le Bel carrying 11-3, going a shorter trip after managing heavier and longer ground. The horse is only six and hasn’t been embarrassed on their few (2) jumps on faster ground. I think in a difficult handicap to call Fox Le Bel has the right mix of just enough of everything.

4.22
Fox Le Bel 7/1 ew 3 places

4.52
A Maiden Hunters Chase, where it’s hard to look past Saint Benedict with absolutely no value at all. Big Leg up has gone from 33/1 to 10/1 from opening to what is now 4.29am. It might be madness to bet on this, but Duty Calls for me has some experience and might like the ground. I’m betting small today after waking up and reading all this that I wrote last night, but this is one I marked out at 4am for a small bet. A hunters chase, and “Tips for Bumpers” (good horse name that) is one thing, getting tips from some fella in PTPs and from hunting is another ball game entirely.

4.52
Duty Calls 35/1 ew 4 places

Good luck today everyone, and if you don't have RacingTV show a bit of support to TG4!

sdoc13

4 10
Insignia of rank 25/1 5 6 pl
1pt ew.
C n d winner has won off 94 and on soft ground. Down to a mark of 82 n should be fit from hurdling campaign.

5 10
Trueba some decent form at this distance recent pipe opener at dundalk. Claimer takes off 10 lbs and I am believe he is real value for that claim
1pt ew 5 pl 14/1

The peckhampouncer 40/1 5 pl 0.5pt ew
Has won off 79 runs off 62. Handles the ground n should be fit from recent runs at dundalk. Hoping return to soft might spark improved and right price to have a small speculative bet.

FiftyP

3.17
Willyouwalkwithme withdrawn
Instead put it on Walking In Memphis 8/1 ew 3 places

2.10
Gelee Blanche 4/1

Reasoning given ^^^ there.

gazza1

Since 2015 the winner of the Lincoln has come from stalls 1, 3, 1, 3, 3 and 5.
Prior to that the next 4 came from stalls 18, 15, 14 and 16.
Bit of a strange pattern but it does show that there's a disadvantage if drawn in the middle.
Mick Mulvany has 2 in the race and even though Carroll (who has won the race twice) is on In from the Cold, I like the chances of Comfort Line who started last season off a mark of 73 but after 2 wins and a number of places now runs off 91 today. Has had a run at Dundalk recently so should be fit and jockey takes off a valuable 5lbs.
He's also drawn in stall 3.

tryfix

It's a nice card from the Curragh but how is anyone supposed to know if the O'Brien horses are going to be ready or not first time out? Duke Of Mantua should be the bet of the day in the 3.05.

In the opener at 1.30 the Caravaggio colt Silver Surfer is a very promising sort, but Jim Bolger is the type to take this race with his Australia colt Freedom Of Speech.

tryfix

Ha, I picked the wrong Jim Bolger horse 😊

FiftyP

tryfix wrote: »

In the opener at 1.30 the Caravaggio colt Silver Surfer is a very promising sort, but Jim Bolger is the type to take this race with his Australia colt Freedom Of Speech.

Freedom of Speech as the horse that stood out for me, in that there were obvious flaws in his running. Head turned aside, not the best stride, ignoring the jockey, and needed a horse coming up next to it to kick into any gear. Maybe just a headstrong horse that will always be down in the order, but if he can be gotten into running it's a horse that showed a lot of room for improvement while still getting (a fairly behind) third.

tryfix

FiftyP wrote: »

Silver Surfer was the horse that stood out for me, in that there were obvious flaws in his running. Head turned aside, not the best stride, ignoring the jockey, and needed a horse coming up next to it to kick into any gear. Maybe just a headstrong horse that will always be down in the order, but if he can be gotten into running it's a horse that showed a lot of room for improvement while still getting (a fairly behind) third.

Freedom Of Speech got third, hope that TG4 might show a rerun of it in their coverage. It's a real pain trying to figure out if the O'Brien horses are out for a learning experience first time out or if they are ready to win. With Silver Surfer being trained by Donnacha and Coolmore wanting a good start to Caravaggio's stud career you couldn't just assume that Silver Surfer wasn't going to be ready to win.

FiftyP

tryfix wrote: »

Freedom Of Speech got third, hope that TG4 might show a rerun of it in their coverage. It's a real pain trying to figure out if the O'Brien are out for a learning experience first time out or if they are ready to win. With Silver Surfer being trained by Donnacha and Coolmore wanting a good start to Caravaggio's stud career you couldn't just assume that Silver Surfer wasn't going to be ready to win.

Yeah, that was a brain fart. I menat Freedom of Speech, for all the reasons I stated.

FiftyP

Watching the 1.50 in Carlisle (English racing seems horrific with fields like this) and there's a four year old after tearing out ahead, El Jefe. The jockey's only let him out eight lengths at most, but he was left run a head a fair bit. The horse was very eager before the race, you could really see it in him. And overall his jumping has been poor. (That's the summation of his race, other than to say he's really tailed off with two fences to go.)

I know if you don't think you can stay some would say to set the pace and see if you can bludgeon the other horses, but this horse is a four year old, going on its longest ever trip. Surely there's something to be said for building up experience, letting it run in the pack, and show the horse if it wants to run (and the trainer wants to win) it has to go with the other horses. I can see the logic of an experienced horse, without the staying power, and maybe a little edge based on the going, leading out (at least based on what people have told me.) But this horse is 4. What's there to be gained from letting it run ahead, fall back to the group after a mile and a few furlongs, running with the other horses for maybe one hurdle as it struggles to keep up, then letting it drop way back off. You're not finding anything out, and you're not teaching the horse anything? It just seems brainless, so I have to be missing something.

Is it just getting it on a course and over some hurdles with the experience of the day? I still don't see that though. If it's not going over anything with the pressure of other horses around you might as well be training it at home.

FiftyP

Pure Genius took that absolutely easily. Carrying top weight, from the front, over the Downpatrick hills and dips, leading out, letting them back in, taking out in front again. Other horses had advantages and Pure Genius, despite the small distance of the win, just strode out.

tryfix

Duke Of Mantua well beaten in 4th, for a well reputed 2,000 Guineas candidate he should be better than that. Thought he ran very stuffily and don't think he was anywhere near fully wound up. Will have another crack at him when he runs again.

FiftyP

tryfix wrote: »

Duke Of Mantua well beaten in 4th, for a well reputed 2,000 Guineas candidate he should be better than that. Thought he ran very stuffily and don't think he was anywhere near fully wound up. Will have another crack at him when he runs again.

He never got going. Used natural talent to keep at the front for the first five and a half furlongs, but never looked interested in running.

FiftyP

The jockey going flying on Frankly All Talk at the second fence sums up my day. He totally flubbed that jump, trying to get the horse to relax is fine but try not to do it just as you're asking it to leap. Glad I had spotted it'd be a poor day for me with the bookies and reduced my bets.

Overall, before this race has been run, Downpatrick has been fine to watch but I don't think it's revealed a lot about the horses that ran. The course is funky, before you get into anything else, but apart from maybe Pure Genius in the 2.45 it's not been a day that's exciting for the future.

gazza1

gazza1 wrote: »

Since 2015 the winner of the Lincoln has come from stalls 1, 3, 1, 3, 3 and 5.
Prior to that the next 4 came from stalls 18, 15, 14 and 16.
Bit of a strange pattern but it does show that there's a disadvantage if drawn in the middle.
Mick Mulvany has 2 in the race and even though Carroll (who has won the race twice) is on In from the Cold, I like the chances of Comfort Line who started last season off a mark of 73 but after 2 wins and a number of places now runs off 91 today. Has had a run at Dundalk recently so should be fit and jockey takes off a valuable 5lbs.
He's also drawn in stall 3.

Placed

gazza1

gazza1 wrote: »

Placed

4 of the first 5 drawn in stalls 1-5. The pattern continues

Frozen Veg

Jordan Gainford has a bright future.

Frozen Veg

gazza1 wrote: »

4 of the first 5 drawn in stalls 1-5. The pattern continues

Memsie and Anglo Saxon e/w in this one for the craic.

FiftyP

Another faller for me in the final race I'm watching. Stupid bloody day.

Apart from the final race, which I'll not pay attention to, I'd say if you're going to watch one for the future from Downpatrick it should be the 2.45 with Pure Genius.

sdoc13

sdoc13 wrote: »

4 10
Insignia of rank 25/1 5 6 pl
1pt ew.
C n d winner has won off 94 and on soft ground. Down to a mark of 82 n should be fit from hurdling campaign.

5 10
Trueba some decent form at this distance recent pipe opener at dundalk. Claimer takes off 10 lbs and I am believe he is real value for that claim
1pt ew 5 pl 14/1

The peckhampouncer 40/1 5 pl 0.5pt ew
Has won off 79 runs off 62. Handles the ground n should be fit from recent runs at dundalk. Hoping return to soft might spark improved and right price to have a small speculative bet.

Insignia beaten 2l in 9th.

Both horses in the 5 10 place
Jockey change could have cost trueba as originally jockey would have been claiming 3lbs more.

tinpib

I wonder did anyone back Er Dancer e/w who finished 4th in the Ulster National 3:47pm Downpatrick with William Hill?

Some bleddy job trying to get my few pennies back from them.

It was an extra place race but it clearly seems like they put up the promotion but didn't code the extra place into their settlements. They still settled it as only paying 3 places. Onto chat for the second time here.