Punting Savvy

carq

Lets face it- bookies will try to get you every way you can.
With DBF coming up and Cheltenham on the horizon I thought it would be good to list some things the Savvy punter should look out for / ways the bookies try to trick people.

I'll get the ball rolling

1. Still advertising 5 places even though horses have been withdrawn and payout will only be 3 or 4 places. Saw this on at the weekend, even comes up when placing a new bet after horses have been withdrawn - poor form
2. 'Life changer' Multiples - Firm Shows max payout of e.g 10 million when placing bet even though max payout of the firm is only 1 million. Punter wasting a proportion of his stake should reduce accordingly so payout of bet = payout of firm.
3. Best odds are not guaranteed if extra place is offered on race. This is creeping in more and more and is designed to screw the punter over. Extra place looks good on surface but likely saves the bookie lots of money.

Coneygree

1. Only back winners.
2. When you finally decide that you will only back winners, don't back them EW as this reduces your profits dramatically.

IAMAMORON

Coneygree wrote: »

1. Only back winners.
2. When you finally decide that you will only back winners, don't back them EW as this reduces your profits dramatically.

You look to be all over this Coneygree. Nice one.

I hope you are investing wisely.

I would personally avoid media and hype horses like the plague.

The other one that gets up my Goat ( sorry ) is when the bookie gives you tips? Are you kidding me? Avoid specials also, please do this, it massively works. Bookies get genuine info from stables allllll the time.

I also hate posters that deliberately come on here pretending to be genuine when in fact they are mean ass professional layers looking to get a tighter price to lay.... you know who you are.

Finally, gloating about a favourable AP price on a horse entered in a race that has not even run yet is really head scratching to me? The horse has still not even been declared... never mind jockey booking, ground, recent form, draw, etc etc. Posters on here getting all smug about getting a few extra points on a runner that hasn't even lined up yet..... winds me up big time. Even if you have the fancy double figure price the thing still has to actually go and win the race?

IAMAMORON

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention, don't bother backing horses up in Dundalk, it is a rigged shightfest.

Just Saying.

Coneygree

IAMAMORON wrote: »

You look to be all over this Coneygree. Nice one.

I hope you are investing wisely.

I would personally avoid media and hype horses like the plague.

The other one that gets up my Goat ( sorry ) is when the bookie gives you tips? Are you kidding me? Avoid specials also, please do this, it massively works. Bookies get genuine info from stables allllll the time.

I also hate posters that deliberately come on here pretending to be genuine when in fact they are mean ass professional layers looking to get a tighter price to lay.... you know who you are.

Finally, gloating about a favourable AP price on a horse entered in a race that has not even run yet is really head scratching to me? The horse has still not even been declared... never mind jockey booking, ground, recent form, draw, etc etc. Posters on here getting all smug about getting a few extra points on a runner that hasn't even lined up yet..... winds me up big time. Even if you have the fancy double figure price the thing still has to actually go and win the race?

Media hype ones is a big one. Especially with things like Twitter being so mainstream you've every yoke of a thing bigging up horses. I follow a few obscure accounts which I maintain are decent info but they are few and far between.

Also agree re specials, especially on the day and on the week specials which look lovely on the surface but are a complete rip off. Saying that at times there can be gems of AP specials. I'm a big fan of the win today and win in March bets.

Hold my hands up about the smugness about AP prices. There's a sentiment out there that AP betting is dead in the water so it is nice when things go well. I've felt this season my book is looking better than last year which was disastrous from an AP point of view and any money made was on bets from now until March.

realdanbreen

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention, don't bother backing horses up in Dundalk, it is a rigged shightfest.

Just Saying.

That old barstool rubbish talk has been doing the rounds a long time now.

IAMAMORON

realdanbreen wrote: »

That old barstool rubbish talk has been doing the rounds a long time now.

Touched a nerve did I?

RivetingRoger

If you have a free bet with PP, once you place that bet, there is no cash out on multiples

example
I had my tenner free bet this morning
I put 20 quid on an acca for DRF, Ten of my own money, ten free bet credit
Upon reflection, seeing the drift on zanahiyr and the price cutting for quilixios, i went to cash out as i am sure now zanahiyr wont run
I was getting my tenner back, but the free bet was/is not refunded

Worth knowing

I got onto them, they refunded free bet as a matter of good will but said ordinarily, it would not have been, so you lose your free bet completely

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would personally avoid media and hype horses like the plague.

Avoid specials also, please do this, it massively works. Bookies get genuine info from stables allllll the time.



Finally, gloating about a favourable AP price on a horse entered in a race that has not even run yet is really head scratching to me? The horse has still not even been declared... never mind jockey booking, ground, recent form, draw, etc etc. Posters on here getting all smug about getting a few extra points on a runner that hasn't even lined up yet..... winds me up big time. Even if you have the fancy double figure price the thing still has to actually go and win the race?

How do you decide what is a 'hype horse' and what is the real deal, surely you trust your won judgement before some twat on social media or in the Racing Post?

Plenty of value to be had on specials but like every bet, you have to decide what's value and what isn't, just because it is an enhanced price does not mean it is a special or value so I would agree with you there.

You might be missing the point about AP betting! Beating the SP is obviously he main aim of every bet you place whether its the morning of the race or 6 months before hand and if you continually beat the SP them you will make money, its simple probability really. Plus with the exchanges now you can play the AP market and have 'free' bets - its not easy and can be very trappy but I certainly wouldn't be crabing anyone for celebrating it.

Other than that I agree with everything you say :D Just saying!

carq

Might contact them also
I had a NRNB for champ hurdle who wasnt declared for Race - Paddy still have bet as open, i guess they will hold only my cash until March before refunding.

Pogue eile

Coneygree wrote: »

1. Only back winners.
2. When you finally decide that you will only back winners, don't back them EW as this reduces your profits dramatically.

I don't tend to back e/w very often but you are missing some serious value by having a 'never' policy - most accounts are closed for what bookies consider 'bad' e/w bets from their perspective.

Beating SP and 'bad' each way bets are the two main reasons for account closures/restrictions. I personally have backed a horse e/w as short as 11/4 and I know others who would even go as low as 9/4, 5/2.

Pogue eile

carq wrote: »

Might contact them also
I had a NRNB for champ hurdle who wasnt declared for Race - Paddy still have bet as open, i guess they will hold only my cash until March before refunding.

Yep, until final decs - can you imagine if they refunded, he was supplemented and won - cant imagine you would be happy then!! It is to your advantage that they haven't refunded it.

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

How do you decide what is a 'hype horse' and what is the real deal, surely you trust your won judgement before some twat on social media or in the Racing Post?

For me it can be any paper favourite that is about to be unplaced or pulled up because it won a soft maiden last month, they happen all the time. Before you know it the horse is in every bookie across the card double special you can find. Avoid avoid avoid.

Pogue eile wrote: »

You might be missing the point about AP betting!

My main gripe is that you only beat any price if your horse wins the race. If for any reason whatsoever it doesn't your money is done. That could be as simple as the horse leaving his box lame that morning. Wait till you see the amount of horses that will be removed from the Cheltenham betting in the next month alone, that is before March arrives. Every time one gets removed your money is gone, without even a run for it.

Having a horse backed at 20 / 1 whose SP is 3/1 is nice, well done. But how much you can lay it off depends on the horse even turning up. Then it actually has to go and actually win the race.

I would rather wait until the decs and lump on my fancy and roar it home in peace, win or lose. At the very least I get a run for my money.

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

I don't tend to back e/w very often but you are missing some serious value by having a 'never' policy - most accounts are closed for what bookies consider 'bad' e/w bets from their perspective.

Beating SP and 'bad' each way bets are the two main reasons for account closures/restrictions. I personally have backed a horse e/w as short as 11/4 and I know others who would even go as low as 9/4, 5/2.

It depends on my info and on my stake.

If I have a decent tip for a trier that is currently below 8's or 10's ( depending on 1/4 or 1/5 odds ) I might back each way if I am out with the stash. Like if I am confident it is trying etc and that it is not a certainty ( what is??) I might back ew to make sure I get something back if one better turns up.

But generally I am win only for any fancies below 8's or 10's. If you have a tenner ew on 10/1 winner you actually lose 80 euro if it wins. Go figure. Also if it gets placed you win a tenner, but who needs to win a tenner if you bet 20? It is going straight back on somewhere? With respect to the diligent.

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

For me it can be any paper favourite that is about to be unplaced or pulled up because it won a soft maiden last month, they happen all the time. Before you know it the horse is in every bookie across the card double special you can find. Avoid avoid avoid.



My main gripe is that you only beat any price if your horse wins the race. If for any reason whatsoever it doesn't your money is done. That could be as simple as the horse leaving his box lame that morning. Wait till you see the amount of horses that will be removed from the Cheltenham betting in the next month alone, that is before March arrives. Every time one gets removed your money is gone, without even a run for it.

Having a horse backed at 20 / 1 whose SP is 3/1 is nice, well done. But how much you can lay it off depends on the horse even turning up. Then it actually has to go and actually win the race.

I would rather wait until the decs and lump on my fancy and roar it home in peace, win or lose. At the very least I get a run for my money.

For every favourite that is overhyped there is as many favourites that are underrated, its like every facet of the game, all about opinions and trusting your own judgement. Agreed that some novices get overhyped especially when they are from leading connections.

I get that AP betting is not for everyone and it is a risky practice, but I think you are missing my point. For example I back a horse €100 @ 25/1 AP, he wins a race in Jan or Feb and is cut to 5/1, I simply lay him @5/1 for a €100 and I have a free bet for a possible €2000. I am simplifying things but for illustration purposes. Of course there are other times where he doesn't win the race in Jan/Feb or gets injured but that is up to the punter to factor in when deciding if the AP price is value or not.

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It depends on my info and on my stake.

If I have a decent tip for a trier that is currently below 8's or 10's ( depending on 1/4 or 1/5 odds ) I might back each way if I am out with the stash. Like if I am confident it is trying etc and that it is not a certainty ( what is??) I might back ew to make sure I get something back if one better turns up.

But generally I am win only for any fancies below 8's or 10's. If you have a tenner ew on 10/1 winner you actually lose 80 euro if it wins. Go figure. Also if it gets placed you win a tenner, but who needs to win a tenner if you bet 20? It is going straight back on somewhere? With respect to the diligent.

As I said as a rule I would agree, I usually use a cut off of 12/1 but there are exceptions depending on the make up of the race. I think the important thing to remember when backing e/w is that you must treat them as two individual bets, and also I wouldn't be crabing about a 50% ROI, in fact that is the dream!

Pogue eile

All I seem to be doing on this thread is disagreeing with lads so I will try and offer some constructive input as an apology.

Apart from the stuff already covered I would say the two single most important things from a punting perspective is bank roll management and a cool head.

On bank roll management, you should have a betting bankroll seperate from all other money and your max bet should never be anymore than 5% of your roll and your normal bet between 1-2%. Every single bet and the result should be recorded and review regularly, its hard work and a pain but the amount of money saved is worth it, you will be shocked at the amount of 'bad bets' you are placing if you dont already do this.

The second one is equally important - nothing annoys me more that hearing a lad say 'ah sure it was the bookies money' after making a stupid bet because be was up for the day/week whatever - it is not the bookies money, it is yours, you earned it and when you lose the bookie doesn't try to throw back your money at you. And of course never chase losses.

At Cheltenham for example I would strongly advise even the most casual of punters to place their bets for the day before the first race, no chasing losses or playing up winnings that way.

I am now reminded of an old D'unbelievables video - 'bit most of all lads go out and enjoy yourselves'

Pogue eile

Pogue eile wrote: »

Plenty of value to be had on specials but like every bet, you have to decide what's value and what isn't, just because it is an enhanced price does not mean it is a special or value so I would agree with you there.

Just as a follow up to this I see Skybet have a top drawer special at the moment - Shiskin and Envoi double at 7/2 and its NRNB, hurry it wont last long!

Coneygree

Pogue eile wrote: »

Just as a follow up to this I see Skybet have a top drawer special at the moment - Shiskin and Envoi double at 7/2 and its NRNB, hurry it wont last long!

I no longer have a Sky account. I'd imagine they are capping bets at 20-30 max bet?

Already on at double figures so I doubt I'd add to it.

pugw

One or two things come to mind to watch out for:

I think 365/Boyles are the only bookies who give BOG on bets placed the night before racing ? PP changed to 8am the morning of a few months back

Betfred still give treble the odds for Lucky15s... often the difference in covering the bet or not but they don’t give BOG on these

Personal opinion here but I think PP prices are gone very skinny, beginning to think boyles are a better option with their money back If beaten by the favourite concession!

Andrew00

Avoid big drifters... Especially from crooked yards like Skelton and Nicky Henderson who are in bed with the bookies

robbiezero

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Having a horse backed at 20 / 1 whose SP is 3/1 is nice, well done. But how much you can lay it off depends on the horse even turning up. Then it actually has to go and actually win the race.

Not necessarily. You might stick up a low in-running lay and make a decent profit if it goes close as well as having effectively a free bet in the race.

IAMAMORON

robbiezero wrote: »

Not necessarily. You might stick up a low in-running lay and make a decent profit if it goes close as well as having effectively a free bet in the race.

If it runs at all.

Then it has to be going well and you also have to be leaning over your laptop frantically clicking the lay button. You would want to be on the ball.

I get the potential to make a profit. But for me the negs outweigh the positives.

The only real people who benefit from AP markets are those with genuine connections to the horse. At least they know it's targets. Even at that they are in the Lap of the gods as to whether or not their horse turns up fit and well and ready to run.

Not for me.

robbiezero

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If it runs at all.

Then it has to be going well and you also have to be leaning over your laptop frantically clicking the lay button. You would want to be on the ball.

I get the potential to make a profit. But for me the negs outweigh the positives.

The only real people who benefit from AP markets are those with genuine connections to the horse. At least they know it's targets. Even at that they are in the Lap of the gods as to whether or not their horse turns up fit and well and ready to run.

Not for me.

Not really. If I was on one at 20/1 and it SP'ed at 3/1, I would be laying out my stake anyway and then stick up and decent wad at around evens to lay before the race and leave it lie in running. No interaction required during the race.

Purely because it would be sickening to have beaten SP by so much, and not to make a penny if the horse was just barely beaten.

Agree with most of the rest of your post. You can get some value if you fancy horses prior to other races before Cheltenham e.g.
Energumene was 20s on exchanges before the race last week, about 8s now.

dickdasr1234

Pogue eile wrote: »

I don't tend to back e/w very often but you are missing some serious value by having a 'never' policy - most accounts are closed for what bookies consider 'bad' e/w bets from their perspective.

Beating SP and 'bad' each way bets are the two main reasons for account closures/restrictions. I personally have backed a horse e/w as short as 11/4 and I know others who would even go as low as 9/4, 5/2.

And you are missing the first point!

realdanbreen

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Touched a nerve did I?

Were you ever even in Dundalk?

akelly02

if sandown somehow gets the go ahead tomorrow, steer well clear

grade 1 chase or not , the place will be a swamp

spend your money at leopardstown

Coneygree

akelly02 wrote: »

if sandown somehow gets the go ahead tomorrow, steer well clear

grade 1 chase or not , the place will be a swamp

spend your money at leopardstown

Natural habitat for HMS Santini.

Pogue eile

Coneygree wrote: »

Natural habitat for HMS Santini.

Would suit BDM even more was my line of thinking when I looked at the race, but then I noticed that Twiston-Davies last 27 runners have all been beaten. No bet race for me I think. Top 4 in the betting all only seperated by 3lbs on official ratings and all bar Native River have won on heavy ground.

dickdasr1234

Hehe, and I also believed that grown-ups held their hands up when they made a booboo.

piplip87

A horse is 6/1 to win, at 11 in the morning, the bookie gives you a bet boost and brings the odds to 13/2. Horse drifts out 12/1 best odds guaranteed doesn't apply to boosted bets

The Jman

piplip87 wrote: »

A horse is 6/1 to win, at 11 in the morning, the bookie gives you a bet boost and brings the odds to 13/2. Horse drifts out 12/1 best odds guaranteed doesn't apply to boosted bets

This is one thats caught me out in the past, I only really use bet boosts for antepost bets now!

IAMAMORON

I drew a festival staking plan. It is obviously not gospel - and subject to change as decs are made. But it is kind of ball park what I will be doing. One caveat - I won't have a bet in a race where I don't get my price - or in fact I will reduce my stake at that point - if I back at all. So whilst it looks like I am having a bet each race - and I kind of am - there will be races that I will just watch because I don't see the value or can't find a winner. That does not mean I won't have a fiver on something for an interest, but you catch my drift.

Cheltenham Festival Stakes Plan

100 pts

Festival Accum 7
Daily Accums 6
Main Festival Bet 32
This could be divided into 2 or 3 bets depending on what I fancy once decs are made.
Tuesday
Supreme 2 G1
Arkle 4 G1
Ultima 0.5 handicap
Champion Hurdle 7 G1
Mares 1.5 G1
Boodles 0.5 handicap
NHC 0.5 handicap
Wednesday
Ballymore 3 G1
RSA 4 G1
Coral 0.5 handicap
Queen Mother 5 G1
Cross country 0.5 handicap
Grand Annual 0.5 handicap
Bumper 0.5 G1
Thursday
Novice Chase Plate 2 G1
Pertemps 0.5 handicap
Ryanair 4 G1
Stayers 4 G1
Handicap Chase Plate 0.5 handicap
Mares Novice 0.5 G2
Kim Muir 0.5 handicap
Friday
Triumph 3 G1
County 0.5 handicap
Albert Bartlett 3 G1
Gold Cup 5 G1
foxhunter 0.5 non handicap
Mares Chase 0.5 G1
Martin Pipe 0.5 handicap

Total 100

Keep your accum bets small. The prices will be there if they all win. Do ew also.
Handcaps are a lottery - no matter what you fancy, they are all trying. Back ew
Do have 2/3 bigger bets of your big fancies, try to stick to this if possible. Even have 4. If you are struggling to have a bet in a race save that money for these bets.
I know I have not done it in the plan above, but don't be afraid to not back a horse in a race. If you can't find a winner don't have a bet. If you can't do that just reduce your stake. Like in the Handicaps above, I won't have a bet, no point, the likes of shight like the boodles or the bumper, or the mares novice - anything can bolt up and you have no idea, keep your stakes low here if possible.
The same can apply for a championship race. If you can't get the price you like consider your options and why you are having the bet. I have often left races alone because I could not get the price I like. Don't forget that the fences are in the way as well, thinking even money shots over fences are good bets is akin to pulling a Glock out and ramming it down your throat and pulling the trigger - it's not a good bet over fences - even if the horse wins. Save your spends for Ascot or the Curragh etc. I would rather lose a fiver on a 20/1 outsider than a tonne on an even money shot over fences.
Finally, I always say this - but it is the best advice in punting. If you fancy a horse , trust yourself. Don't be afraid of the price being too big or that it is drifting etc etc. There will be millions punted next month - that is what controls the price. If you fancy something do not be afraid to get on. The most money I ever made backing horses was on the price.

carq

Good words and advice.
From tracking my own bets over the last few cheltenhams profit is always Highest Tuesday / Wednesday / Lucky to break even Thurs / Loss Friday.

Will try to adjust staking accordingly this year to front load the start of the week.

longshotvalue

my staking plan would be the opposite .way more on handicaps because there all trying

IAMAMORON

aidankkk wrote: »

my staking plan would be the opposite .way more on handicaps because there all trying

I might have a fancy in a handicap, but that will be in one of my big bets of the meeting - if it is there. But the reality is that the festival handicaps are now full of graded horses in disguise. You need to be really shrewd and even have inside stable info on some of the winners.

Last year the Coral Cup was won by a horse that was having it's 7th run under rules. It looked very well handicapped. The same with the County hurdle, Saint Roi thrown in on it's 3rd run. All well and good but from a punting perspective you can only be backing those based on market support, you don't really know how it is going to perform. This can be seen both ways, for every novice thrown in with 20lbs to spare you have seasoned horses that are overrated. That is the nature of a handicap, but you are still having to take a leap of faith on the horses chance. Delta Work had a similar profile the year he won the Pertemps. You can argue the same for Chosen Mate.

I would prefer to not blow my money on big fields with unpredictable outcomes. As it happens I do fancy one in the grand Annual this year, if it turns up. But all in all I prefer to have bigger bets in the graded races - most horses that are turning up in these races go with a viable chance. I also think there can be value in these races, as invariably the favs can be too short and quite often opposable.

I just think more often than not the handicaps are clusterphucks. I enjoy watching them and if I thought something was the wrong price I will have a small ew bet. But I much prefer following graded horses, at least I have some sort of a clue as to what their ratings are and what ground they like, what course etc etc. It helps.

Saint Roi is the classic example of my argument. As it turns out he was able to beat a huge field with little experience, great stuff, but I have my doubts as to how many other horses can win a big hurdle handicap like that off the back of 3-4 runs, especially at 11/2?