Sunday 31st - Naas, Catterick

supremenovice · 30-01-2021 9:21pm #1

Bachasson is far too short for a Grade 3 2m hurdle in the 115. Hes a 2m4f horse.
Coeur Sublime is the value in that one

Brock Turnpike · 30-01-2021 10:36pm

supremenovice wrote: »

Bachasson is far too short for a Grade 3 2m hurdle in the 115. Hes a 2m4f horse.
Coeur Sublime is the value in that one

Winston C an interesting runner in that race, for the Americans

The Mig · 30-01-2021 10:58pm

Bachasson getting weight off his 3 main market rivals on ground he absolutely loves. Out from the front and won’t be bet IMO regardless of the trip

Slattsy · 31-01-2021 7:44am

I thought Bachasson was a good thing also. Race conditions make it hard to beat.

And I thought Hills of Antrim would be a winner wherever she ran next time after running The Stattler close, considering she never jumped. Thought it was a 1/2 shot. Double for me.

JagoMoon · 31-01-2021 8:15am

Ilikedwayurthinkin is an interesting runner in the 3:45. Will have to go very close to winning this if he's to get into the Plate at Cheltenham. Stepping back up in trip will definitely suit. I'm expecting a big run today.

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 9:48am

supremenovice wrote: »

Bachasson is far too short for a Grade 3 2m hurdle in the 115. Hes a 2m4f horse.
Coeur Sublime is the value in that one

I was looking at the race last night and thinking CS was the bet. I'm now thinking I'll sit back and watch because I don't think its ludicrous to think they might try go for the county hurdle with this boy and if so theyd like to finish 3rd or 4th here. Near the head of the weights off a strong gallop, Keith be well able to do the weight. He could be interesting in it.
Nr now

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 9:52am

Baltimore Bucko, one of the American horses based here for a few months runs in the 2.45 Naas, ran a cracker at Limerick the last day, jumped lovely, travelled a bit keen the only issue so hopefully has learnt from that.
Has jockey claiming another few lbs off today and the form of his xmas run working out pretty well. Hell be trying for sure and is a nice ew price.

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 9:56am

JagoMoon wrote: »

Ilikedwayurthinkin is an interesting runner in the 3:45. Will have to go very close to winning this if he's to get into the Plate at Cheltenham. Stepping back up in trip will definitely suit. I'm expecting a big run today.

I'd say hes a tryer for sure. They have him too well handicapped. I could see him being one the Bha handicapper wouldn't give a single extra pound to just to keep him out of the race if it came to it.

Kauto · 31-01-2021 10:32am

posturingpat wrote: »

I'd say hes a tryer for sure. They have him too well handicapped. I could see him being one the Bha handicapper wouldn't give a single extra pound to just to keep him out of the race if it came to it.

This won't be winning. 4th or 5th place finish will be the order of the day.

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 10:46am

Kauto wrote: »

This won't be winning. 4th or 5th place finish will be the order of the day.

Did you see his rating? He keeps going down the weights hell struggle to get into the National down in Ballinrobe. :pac:

Slattsy · 31-01-2021 11:34am

They are going balls deep on Persia in the first.

Kauto · 31-01-2021 11:41am

posturingpat wrote: »

Did you see his rating? He keeps going down the weights hell struggle to get into the National down in Ballinrobe. :pac:

Keeps going down the ratings? He has only got his chase mark. English handicapper will lump 7-10 pounds on top of his Irish rating which would get him into a novice handicap in Cheltenham if they are bothered bringing him.
Fourth or fifth today wouldnt see him getting dropped.

IAMAMORON · 31-01-2021 11:43am

Hayley Turner rides in the first at " Woolie " today. Her only ride today.

Other winners include

Naas
1.15 Grand Roi - won at Christmas when Elliott couldn't buy a winner, more to come.
3.15 Pencilfulloflead - if they raced over 5 miles this thing would win, 3 miles on heavy is his bag.
3.45 Stormy Judge - looks about right at 7/1 if it is trying - small beans win only.
4.15 Stalker Wallace

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 11:59am

Kauto wrote: »

Keeps going down the ratings? He has only got his chase mark. English handicapper will lump 7-10 pounds on top of his Irish rating which would get him into a novice handicap in Cheltenham if they are bothered bringing him.
Fourth or fifth today wouldnt see him getting dropped.

I meant relative to his hurdles mark. They have the low mark they were looking for. If they've any cop on which they have they'll not want to go down any further or they'll get into nothing in March.

Joe_ Public · 31-01-2021 12:10pm

Slattsy wrote: »

They are going balls deep on Persia in the first.

Not shocked as didnt think he'd need to be anything special to win this. Coltor looked seriously one paced last time at Punch and not sure hogan horse that finished ahead of him is much better. Missed bigger prices though so just a watch.

Edit: happy to have sat that one out anyway! Finished in a bit of a heap so hard to know what to make of it, but French Aseel connections be happy enough at least. Halifax maybe the one to note from it.

The Mig · 31-01-2021 1:27pm

The Mig wrote: »

Bachasson getting weight off his 3 main market rivals on ground he absolutely loves. Out from the front and won’t be bet IMO regardless of the trip

:cool:

supremenovice · 31-01-2021 1:28pm

Ah well, I couldn't have been more wrong. Bachasson very impressive. Interesting to hear his Festival target after that.

The Mig · 31-01-2021 1:58pm

posturingpat wrote: »

Baltimore Bucko, one of the American horses based here for a few months runs in the 2.45 Naas, ran a cracker at Limerick the last day, jumped lovely, travelled a bit keen the only issue so hopefully has learnt from that.
Has jockey claiming another few lbs off today and the form of his xmas run working out pretty well. Hell be trying for sure and is a nice ew price.

Fav now Pat

Anniepowaa · 31-01-2021 2:32pm

if matt smiths horse doesn't win of 9-13 its a huge mark against zanahyirs form

gillamandango · 31-01-2021 3:09pm

Absolute Farce of a race, starter needs sacking..

Artfu1Dodger · 31-01-2021 3:11pm

Disgraceful that. How did Aarons day finish 2nd. Would of hacked up.

Francie Barrett · 31-01-2021 3:11pm

Shambles at Naas.

MonkstownHoop · 31-01-2021 3:11pm

gillamandango wrote: »

Absolute Farce of a race, starter needs sacking..

Laughable

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 3:13pm

Oliver mc kiernan and co will be pulling their hair out. Imagine waiting on Aaron's day for a yankee :rolleyes:

IAMAMORON · 31-01-2021 3:16pm

Punters Graveyard.

Kauto · 31-01-2021 3:55pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Punters Graveyard.

Not for anyone with half a clue!!

Anniepowaa · 31-01-2021 4:00pm

Glaciers move faster than pencilfulloflead

Brock Turnpike · 31-01-2021 4:06pm

Kauto wrote: »

Keeps going down the ratings? He has only got his chase mark. English handicapper will lump 7-10 pounds on top of his Irish rating which would get him into a novice handicap in Cheltenham if they are bothered bringing him.
Fourth or fifth today wouldnt see him getting dropped.

Big drift suggest it won't be trying.

Kauto · 31-01-2021 4:09pm

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Big drift suggest it won't be trying.

Sure anyone with half a brain and any knowledge of how they operate could tell you that!! Trying first time in a handicap? Give me a break.

He might be that well handicapped they there is a chance he will get away on them but Mark Walsh will take a big exaggerated pull at one of the fences to lose a few lengths!!

posturingpat · 31-01-2021 4:22pm

He wont be running at Cheltenham over fences that's for sure. :pac:

Kauto · 31-01-2021 4:30pm

posturingpat wrote: »

He wont be running at Cheltenham over fences that's for sure. :pac:

Nice enough run i thought. Wouldnt have thought Cheltenham was ever on the agenda.

gillamandango · 31-01-2021 6:36pm

Galway horse for sure..

Kauto wrote: »

Nice enough run i thought. Wouldnt have thought Cheltenham was ever on the agenda.

Pogue eile · 01-02-2021 3:56pm

Kauto wrote: »

Keeps going down the ratings? He has only got his chase mark. English handicapper will lump 7-10 pounds on top of his Irish rating which would get him into a novice handicap in Cheltenham if they are bothered bringing him.
Fourth or fifth today wouldnt see him getting dropped.

What horses have ever gotten 10lbs extra from the BHA handicapper on top of their Irish mark??

The Mig · 01-02-2021 4:01pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

What horses have ever gotten 10lbs extra from the BHA handicapper on top of their Irish mark??

Dallas Des Pictons got 12lbs higher mark from the English handicapper compared to his Irish rating when he was entered in last years Ultima.

135 in Ireland and 147 in the UK

Pogue eile · 01-02-2021 4:13pm

The Mig wrote: »

Dallas Des Pictons got 12lbs higher mark from the English handicapper compared to his Irish rating when he was entered in last years Ultima.

135 in Ireland and 147 in the UK

True, but very much the exception and Kevin Blake did an excellent piece on this before and the reality is that the average difference is between 2-3lbs.

The Mig · 01-02-2021 4:16pm

Agree it rarely happens alright. Mary Frances also got 13lbs extra for last years Pertemps

Pogue eile · 01-02-2021 4:47pm

The Mig wrote: »

Agree it rarely happens alright. Mary Frances also got 13lbs extra for last years Pertemps

The likes of Presenting Percy and all the crying and moaning from connections don't do Irish horses any favours. I think in general the english handicapper gets it spot on - the strike rate in handicaps for Irish horses is 4.7% compared to 4.4% for English horses - which when you consider that it is easier and cheaper to enter an english horse that is only there for a day out for connections etc. means that they are pretty much on a par.

Sunday 31st - Naas, Catterick

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