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Prize bonds, should I cash in?

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭joeirish


    You are looking at it as throwing a ball onto a grid square of 10 rows and 10 columns. If you have a large block then yes for the purposes of throwing a ball then that would give you a larger chance of the ball staying in your squares if the ball was released in that direction.

    For the purposes of a lotto or a random choosing you need to think of it as having 100 pieces of identical sized and weighted paper with the numbers 1-100 on them, placed in a bag, thoroughly mixed and chosen one at a time by someone not looking in the bag.

    You may have numbers 1-25 but they can only be considered as individual numbers and the odds of 14 being picked at random are the exact same as 44 being picked. You having a continuous range has no consideration when each drawing is an individual number and an individual event.

    yes I totally agree with what you are saying. But my question is not actually about random selection. I accept all that is being said about the randomness of selcting a number in a draw. What does not seem to have been answered is what happens next. Matching the randomly selected number with those I own. Now I get that the percentage of numbers I have in a draw is related to the chances of my winning. What I ws wondering was has anybody done any mathematical modelling the level of chance of this matching numbers I own in a given (mathematical) space and if that is a contiguous space is there a change in the odds of the drawn number matching those in the contiguous space. It's kind of related to linear probing of hsh tables in computing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭joeirish


    burkey2k0 wrote: »
    The previous 10 years has been one of the biggest rises of the markets in the history of the markets. I would not be following anything they are doing as indicative of the returns of wise investing. They are probably investing in single stocks as opposed to funds and making an absolute dogs dinner of it. Please do not look to them as an example.
    Fully understand, my point was simply that there are always losers as well as winners in any gambling (and investment is gambling because we can never know 100% wht the future holds).


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,199 ✭✭✭bullpost


    gypsy79 wrote: »
    Rates are negative on government investments

    https://www.statesavings.ie/our-products/5-year-savings-certificates

    3% return with no risk. Modest but safe and better than leaving it on deposit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,447 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    bullpost wrote: »
    https://www.statesavings.ie/our-products/5-year-savings-certificates

    3% return with no risk. Modest but safe and better than leaving it on deposit.

    Not great if you find you need to withdraw early. €1,000 becomes €1030 after 5 years. But after one year it is still €1,000, two years €1,002, three years €1,003, four years €1,005. I would take my chances with Prize Bonds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,447 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    joeirish wrote: »
    yes I totally agree with what you are saying. But my question is not actually about random selection. I accept all that is being said about the randomness of selcting a number in a draw. What does not seem to have been answered is what happens next. Matching the randomly selected number with those I own. Now I get that the percentage of numbers I have in a draw is related to the chances of my winning. What I ws wondering was has anybody done any mathematical modelling the level of chance of this matching numbers I own in a given (mathematical) space and if that is a contiguous space is there a change in the odds of the drawn number matching those in the contiguous space. It's kind of related to linear probing of hsh tables in computing.

    Unless someone got in before the €250K cap, and has a few 10's of millions worth of bonds, their percentage is too small to look for the patterns you seem to expect. What percentage of the €4 billion do you own?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭joeirish


    Unless someone got in before the €250K cap, and has a few 10's of millions worth of bonds, their percentage is too small to look for the patterns you seem to expect. What percentage of the €4 billion do you own?
    OK but I'm not looking for patterns. Let's just leave it there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,001 ✭✭✭✭Esel


    joeirish wrote: »
    Sorry that a conversation you were not invited to join is annoying you. Now go away if you do not wish to contribute positively.

    Thanks.
    I was not even slightly annoyed. You don't get to invite people to post in 'your' thread. Anyone can post. I did.
    Also, you don't get to decide who should not post again.
    joeirish wrote: »
    yes I totally agree with what you are saying. But my question is not actually about random selection. I accept all that is being said about the randomness of selcting a number in a draw. What does not seem to have been answered is what happens next. Matching the randomly selected number with those I own. Now I get that the percentage of numbers I have in a draw is related to the chances of my winning. What I ws wondering was has anybody done any mathematical modelling the level of chance of this matching numbers I own in a given (mathematical) space and if that is a contiguous space is there a change in the odds of the drawn number matching those in the contiguous space. It's kind of related to linear probing of hsh tables in computing.
    How does linear probing relate in any way to your question? There is no comparison.

    The only way your 'block theory' would work in your favour is if your block comprises the full set of possible numbers.

    Not your ornery onager



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,140 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    joeirish wrote: »
    Fully understand, my point was simply that there are always losers as well as winners in any gambling (and investment is gambling because we can never know 100% wht the future holds).

    Generally, that is incorrect.

    A diversified portfolio, that one of the banks would put your money in, grows in the medium term (the odd dip here or there notwithstanding).

    I was risk averse like you but I wish I'd done the math earlier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,199 ✭✭✭bullpost


    Not great if you find you need to withdraw early. €1,000 becomes €1030 after 5 years. But after one year it is still €1,000, two years €1,002, three years €1,003, four years €1,005. I would take my chances with Prize Bonds.

    Yeah makes no sense for small amounts. And only for someone who wants to secure their investment. Anything beyond that has an element of risk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    Suppose there were 100 prize bonds. The odds of one prize is 1/100.

    If I buy a block of 10 prize bonds the odds on one of these winning is 1/10. The odds on the winning prize bond in this block is a particular prize bond winning is 1/10.

    So the odds on this particular bond winning is 1/10 multiplied by 1/10 = 1/100.

    No difference!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭Mango Joe


    gypsy79 wrote: »
    The expected return is still 0.35% for prize bonds. This is still very high in the current climate in my opinion

    Is this really where we're at now? If you've €100,000 to invest you should be delighted to get a paltry €350 back as an investment return a year later?

    Bearing in mind that the Financial Advisors lurking in the long, dark shadows of our Dept of Finance continue to habitually and regularly try and cut this back further and further to the bone while releasing details of same at 4am on the Sunday of a Bank Holiday weekend or whenever it is - How sneaky and underhanded can you get???


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,447 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Mango Joe wrote: »
    Is this really where we're at now? If you've €100,000 to invest you should be delighted to get a paltry €350 back as an investment return a year later?

    Bearing in mind that the Financial Advisors lurking in the long, dark shadows of our Dept of Finance continue to habitually and regularly try and cut this back further and further to the bone while releasing details of same at 4am on the Sunday of a Bank Holiday weekend or whenever it is - How sneaky and underhanded can you get???

    They sound like really sinister people. But they are not very effective. The last time they got their wicked way was in August 2017 for Prize Bonds. And June 2016 for the other NTMA product.


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