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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Humans have always caused fires. Been doing it for tens of thousands of years. The difference between those human caused fires, and the current wildfire situations, is that fires are hard to start and maintain unless the region is suffering from a drought, Droughts accompanied by heatwaves make fires much easier to start, not just deliberately, but by sparks from trains, or broken glass, or carelessness, and much harder to control once they get going

    I have noticed that a lot of the reports about the current wildfires in the US have stressed that they were sparked by lightning just to avoid the misinformation that spread around the internet last year about arson being the main cause of those wildfires

    Almost half of the continent of america is either in extreme drought, or severe drought. The 'human caused wildfires' because someone threw a cigarette out of a car window would not have turned into wildfires if there wasn't already a severe drought and high temperatures in those regions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Do I have to explain, to someone who no doubt considers themself very well informed about how weather works, how frontal rain works?

    Hint, cold air mass meets hot air mass, the cold air cools down the hot air (by forcing it to rise) and causes the moisture in the hotter air to precipitate

    This is pretty basic stuff TBH



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Earlier you said you don't know. But please, await a further study...

    But just to make you aware, it was an disorganized occluded front, not a cold front, which is the type you describe above, that brought those rainstorms to western Germany, which came in courtesy of a slack Atlantic low pressure system which beforehand passed right over Ireland (on the 11th)

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    "Been declared to be impossible to occur without climate change"

    Title of you links 'Virtually' and 'almost impossible'.... That's not hedging bets? Haven't read through them, will do later tonight.

    "Ie, so extreme that they are beyond the bounds of natural variability and would not have happened without AGW"

    Earth has been warmer in the past, so extreme weather as you describe it would have been possible. So you are saying AGW is driving change faster but not creating something unseen on the planet previously.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The very next sentence after that said 'within the holocene' which is the epoch of human civilisation' It is not within the bounds of 'natural variability' to instantly change global climate to an entirely new equilibrium (with the exception of some kind of cataclysmic event like an asteroid impact)



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    notorious hot spot, Siberia, is currently experiencing unprecedented widlfires following 5 years of unprecedented drought

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/20/everything-is-on-fire-siberia-hit-by-unprecedented-burning

    All of these awful events, the burning boreal forests, the thawing perma-frosts, the reversal of the Amazon rainforests from a net sink to a net emitter of carbon. These are all some of the feedbacks that will ultimately mean make the hothouse earth unstoppable.

    we should have been taking stronger action a decade ago. We absolutely need to act now.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Was the Amazon from logging and burn and clear practices or was that from climate change?



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston




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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Its both according to the latest study

    "We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia"


    Its not good news that the natural parts of the Amazon are entering a tipping point because we're losing a valuable carbon sink, and every billion tonnes of CO2 emitted by natural processes is 1 billion tonnes less that Humans need to emit before we set off irreversible cascades

    Needless to say, the global community should be exerting enormous pressure, and providing the necessary incentives to the countries that host these rainforests to stop the man-made elements of destruction, and put in place measures to slow or reverse the collapsing eco systems that make up these tropical rainforests



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    https://twitter.com/DWD_presse/status/1418261817600663555?s=19

    The German Weather Service (DWD) have classed the recent floods in western Germany as at least a one-in-a-hundred year event. 2021 is so far in the top 5 years since 2001, however, they say there has been no increasing trend in summertime severe rain events (>20 mm/day) in the past 70 years (a very slight increase in wintertime events)...

    "Hinzu komme die Frage nach den Auswirkungen des regionalen Klimawandels auf die Häufigkeit und Intensität von Starkregen, hieß es. Analysen der vergangenen 70 Jahre zeigten, dass die Intensität und die Häufigkeit von Starkniederschlagstagen mit mehr als 20 Liter Niederschlag pro Quadratmeter geringfügig zugenommen habe - vor allem im Winter. Für den Sommer hingegen ergebe sich noch kein einheitliches Bild."

    They also state that it is not possible to attribute individual extreme events to climate change as by their very nature they occur very infrequently, therefore a very long time period is required to analyse trends.

    Auch Extremereignisse sind nach Angaben der Klimawissenschaftler als Einzelereignis zunächst kein direkter Beleg für den Klimawandel. "Nur langjährige Beobachtungen können zeigen, ob die Häufigkeit bestimmter Ereignisse zugenommen hat oder nicht." Gerade bei extremen Ereignissen, die nur selten vorkommen, sei es besonders wichtig, einen sehr langen Zeitraum zur betrachten.

    They then contradict this by saying a recently published study has shown that the intensification of central European heavy rainfall events has, at least in part, been down to human climate change. An attribution study on the recent event is being prepared.

    Eine kürzlich veröffentlichte Studie zeige aber, dass die Intensivierung von Starkniederschlägen, zum Beispiel in Mitteleuropa, zumindest teilweise durch den menschengemachten Klimawandel verstärkt worden sei. Derzeit werde eine sogenannte Attributionsstudie zum Unwetter der vergangenen Woche vorbereitet. Mit diesen Studien lässt sich grundsätzlich abschätzen, inwieweit der vom Menschen verursachte Klimawandel für das Auftreten individueller Wetter- oder Klimaextreme verantwortlich ist.

    So there's been little or no trend found in the data over 70 years, yet a study has found that humans are partially to blame for the increase...



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    When an event has a periodicity of 1 in 300 years, and you need a sample of 100 events to be able to get any kind of statistical significance, then we cannot rely on observations to conduct the science, there need to be models, that can run the scenario hundreds and thousands of times

    Or I suppose we could wait 30000 years before we do the study...



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    It was a pivoting broken up occluded front (which is something occluded fronts do on the north side of a low) that brought that rainfall to that region of Germany. Exactly what 'study' is needed? While not on the same scale, a similar set up bought up to 100mm in September 2009 in parts this country. It happens.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Here is a list taken from the Met Eireann site of the highest daily rainfall totals for each month of the year in this country.


    I want to ask Akrasia, who clearly is well informed with all those studies he reads, why is it that 9 of the 12 highest values in that table above occurred in when the Irish and global climate was in a cooler state?

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Who said 1 in 300 and who said we need 100 samples? Many, not least you, have been claiming the signal in the observations is clear and such events are already well on the increase. The DWD would argue otherwise. You love to resort back to your model studies and claim X and Y about the future, yet the Z that you claim is already happening actually isn't.

    We must also remember that this event, while tragic, only occurred over a small area. As Oneiric said, it was a quasistationary occluded front over a hilly area. I'd love to see the observational data that you have that prove that it was something different. No, not some model spouting probabilities about this and that, no, real data that actually have been measured.

    Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    the trends are apparent already in the observation records but what you are doing is narrowing the scope down to such a specific geographical zone that you literally have to wait hundreds of years to get that sample size.

    I have linked to loads of studies showing the increasing trend for n extreme rainfall events. In a week or so we’ll have an attribution study that analyses the German flooding event. They might conclude that it’s not attributable to climate change and if they do I’ll accept it, what about you?


    here’s an earlier paper from 2019 that supports my position https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-52277-4



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    “Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming”

    We’re at 1c of warming now, the likelihood is we’ll reach 3c unless the global leaders cop themselves on very quickly

    china saw 8 inches of rain fall in an hour a few days ago. This is already close to unimaginable,Imagine 24 inches of rain in an hour


    what this means is that what used to be ‘just a storm’ becomes a life threatening event that can wash away homes and infrastructure at very short notice



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Note the way alarmists always appear to be fighting against the tyranny of 'global leaders', despite the fact that these leaders, who are actually funding the climate research that their life depends on, and their corporate media lackeys - such as the WaPo posted above, owned by cheap labour exploiter Bezos himself - and well as every other big corporate institution are on their side.

    Something is amiss.

    By the way, didn't baldy Bezo fly into space recently? Now, I may be wrong, but I will hazard a guess and say that his space machine wasn't built by wholesome mud and fueled by organic lettuce leaves.

    Post edited by Oneiric 3 on

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Did you not throw your toys back in page 26 and say that your done with this forum.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I'm confused. One-degree warmer air can hold 7% more water vapour, in theory. You reference the China floods dropping 8 inches in a short period. Since we're at just over 1 degree of warming, surely that 8 inches would still have been 7.something inches pre-warming? That's still loads, wouldn't you say? Or are you saying that we wouldn't have had that flood at all back in the good ole days?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Needless to say that "the Global Community should be exerting enormous pressure" such as signing a Mercosur deal with the likes of "Trump of the Tropics" in Bolsanaro - yea liberals are sooo hypocritical, its beyond a joke.

    Polluting refrigeration ships full of beef from Brazil raised on farms realised by the clearing of rainforest - yea have some neck, while Irish farmers who have been proven to be one of the most C02 efficient producers of beef suffer.

    Treason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    'Irish temperature records will be broken in the coming years because we're in a climate crisis' (thejournal.ie)

    Well, that didn't take long did it?

    Northern Ireland’s all-time temperature record was broken multiple times, there were suggestions earlier this week that the island of Ireland’s 124-year-old record of 33.3 degrees could also fall

    More horse manure. There was never a hope in hell that 33.3c would be achieved let alone broken this week. The charlatan writing this goes on to fire every weather event possible into the mix to somehow justify alarming global warming. Reading the comments and it's clear the brainwashing is having an effect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    A rain event doesn’t just take the water from the air immediately over the point where it is raining, the moisture from a wide area is precipitated onto a small area, so if each cubic meter of air holds 7% extra moisture the actual impact of this could be a much bigger increase in the amount and intensity of rain. Also the most intense storms can create their own feedbacks that exacerbate them (the release of the latent heat from water condensing adds loads of additional energy to fuel the storm



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Can you show me a single post from me where I say a single positive thing about this trade deal or the clearing of rainforest for agriculture?

    these deals have been heavily criticized by climate change activists and I think our representatives need to use our political and economic power to force regimes like Balsenero to stop his idiotic practices.

    Trade should be contingent on agreeing to climate and environmental protection standards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    That's all a bit woolly. Could you be a bit more specific? How much would have fallen in China if we were talking, say, 50 years ago? It should be easy enough to calculate it at this stage, given the plethora of papers that have been published. It should already be as clear as the Clausius-Clapeyron theory itself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    And what are these new big massive funnels that are now channeling water from a large area onto a small area? First I've heard of them. How does that work exactly?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1




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