Saturday 02/01/2021 Racing

del roy

Saturday 2nd January
2:40 Ayr - williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle (MW)
A bonus Saturday race for you here, with eight entered up in this three-mile handicap hurdle and it’s a race in which I have a strong fancy despite many of these having good recent winning or placed form.
ILLEGAL MODEL is only six and has just three starts under rules to his name, but the Charlie Longsdon-trained gelding makes a very long trip for this heavy-ground contest and I think it’s a trip where connections would be very disappointed not to be coming back from with a win under their belts. ILLEGAL MODEL was a superb seven-length winner on his hurdling debut, hammering the smart Springfield Fox (now a 140-rated chaser) over 3m on heavy ground at Lingfield, despite losing a shoe. He showed there that he was a thorough stayer in the making and the way he won this without ever really coming under severe pressure marked him out as a horse to follow.
After 283 days off, he returned in October to finish a good third off a mark of 130 behind the Harry Fry-trained pair of Captain Drake and As I See It. The ground (good to soft) on that occasion may well have been as quick as he’d want it and he was just outpaced by the front two before staying on strongly again off the back of the last. He then took another step up to run in a Sandown Park Pertemps Qualifier on heavy ground at the start of December, finishing a decent seven-length fifth behind the very smart Portrush Ted, improvers in the shape of Storm Arising and Farrant’s Way, and the consistent yardstick Flemcara, who went on to win nicely from a mark of 129 on his next start at Doncaster two days ago. This race will be a significantly easier task than that Sandown contest and given the way he stuck on manfully up the hill there when up against some far more experienced sorts, there’s every chance that ILLEGAL MODEL can go in here from a 1lb lower mark of 131 – he may just be classier than most of these.
There are many threats, however – Justatenner was a C&D winner of a slightly weaker race in October, also on heavy ground, from a 1lb lower mark, so could again run well despite a disappointing showing at Carlisle last time out. Portstorm was an impressive winner of a 2m5f contest at this venue, also on heavy ground, just over two weeks ago and while this trip is a question mark for him, he looks as if he’s got some room for manoeuvre off a mark of 121. The Ian Duncan-trained six-year-old has also got plenty of potential for improvement, so he should go well for a long way at least, even if his stamina gives way late on.
Big Penny, though, is undoubtedly the one that sticks out the most as a danger, despite being beaten at 5/4 favouritism on heavy ground at Lingfield on his last start. That was a drop back to two and a half miles, so reverting to the longer trip, where he was a dual winner in September and October, looks a good idea. He’s effectively only 2lb higher in the weights than for the second of those wins, also at Lingfield, this time on soft ground, so even though this is a much better race, the fact he carries very little weight could work in his favour to cancel out the leap in class. One question with Laura Morgan’s horse is his liking (or not) for heavy ground – previously, he’d only run on decent surfaces, so even though he ran pretty well on heavy last time out, it may not be his ideal conditions and that could swing the pendulum further the selection’s way.

MonkstownHoop

Ayr abandoned

carq

Have a little on treacyenniscorthy in the next.
Poor run the last day but always liked the horse.

Daraa

carq wrote: »

Have a little on treacyenniscorthy in the next.
Poor run the last day but always liked the horse.

Nice one! If I’d have bet he’d have fallen at the last instead of recovering!

carq

Yeah a classy horse.
Fairly battered the last but plenty of horse left still

SonOfGoat

3.55 Cork, Angels Dawn. Horse is around 5/4. I've been backing the horse to win for the past while. Horse ran a couple of days ago but didn't seem to want to win. The money is down today. The horse should easily take this race.

One more bet in the 4.10 @ Wolverhampton for me.

SonOfGoat

4.10 Wolverhampton, Fair Star. Horse is around 6/4 - 11/8 - 5/4 with different bookmakers. Even @ 5/4 I think it's great value. I've backed the horse to win and also in a double with Angels Dawn @ Cork.

carq

Hope you have enough left for a packet of noodles sonofgoat after those 2 showings

Coneygree

The Morans have another horse out tomorrow in a bumper for Gordon, called Ginto. Cost 470k. Gordon seems to think he's a good un, he'd want to be for that coin, that's more than Envoi cost which was a steep price at the time!

Francie Barrett

This was from a few days ago. Chapman is some wind up merchant.

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