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Snow showers, 27th/28th

  • 26-12-2020 5:47pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Showers turning to sleet and snow tomorrow morning.

    Plenty of sleet and snow showers around tomorrow. Unlikely to be significant falls to lower levels but temporary accumulations quite likely particularly west/north of the country.

    Tomorrow night a band of more organised heavier showers moving down over the country from the north. Snowfall particularly likely in Ulster, Leinster and east Munster. There will be slightly milder conditions further west, less scope for snow in Connaught and west Munster.

    Not all snow elsewhere either, probably a wintry mix at times of rain, hail, sleet and snow.

    Possibly leaving a couple of cms to low levels, more on high ground.

    Further rain, sleet and snow showers Monday.

    Cold throughout.

    It's quite marginal looking.

    Will update later.


«13456715

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    It’s always marginal in Ireland!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,261 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    Nothing burger below 300 metres.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Nothing burger below 300 mm

    The snow line will be around the knee cap so. :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 346 ✭✭ now online


    Any views on the Cork snow shieldðŸ˜


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭ daniel_t1409


    Doubt we'll get snow down here in Wexford. Sleet would be the most we'll get, and even that is being optimistic.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,182 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    now online wrote: »
    Any views on the Cork snow shieldðŸ˜

    Snow in Cork is fairly unlikely except for high ground locations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Snow in Cork is fairly unlikely except for high ground locations.

    We’ll get plenty showers anyway but probably mostly of the rain/sleet variety unless on higher terrain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭ daniel_t1409


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Snow in Cork is fairly unlikely except for high ground locations.
    What is it looking like for wexford, I presume it will just fall as rain here too?


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Snow in Cork is fairly unlikely except for high ground locations.

    What is it looking like for Dublin, I presume it will just fall as rain here too? :O


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,182 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    What is it looking like for Dublin, I presume it will just fall as rain here too? :O

    at the moment it is very difficult to calculate, could be a mixture of everything but nothing sticking. The Irish sea right beside the city will probably add some extra to the overall temperature so my guess is it will be a rather wet mixture scene in Dublin with better chances of some lying snow further inland perhaps. Temperatures tomorrow and tomorrow night look like holding a few degrees above 0C in Dublin.

    Looks like it will be rain up to midnight tomorrow in Dublin with temperatures still around 5 or 6C.

    GFSOPUK12_12_5.png

    Dewpoints around 5 or 6C as well in the city, no where near snow conditions.

    GFSOPUK12_12_37.png

    3am tomorrow night temperatures getting closer to 0C

    GFSOPUK12_15_5.png

    Dewpoints should be just about 0C

    GFSOPUK12_15_37.png

    Perhaps there will be some wintryness after 3am but by this stage the bulk of the precipitation will have cleared.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Gonzo, I think those charts are for tonight rather than tomorrow night!


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Gonzo, I think those charts are for tonight rather than tomorrow night!

    And he gave so much detail 🥴


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Snow in Cork is fairly unlikely except for high ground locations.
    Worth keeping in mind Cork city is very hilly with a huge number of the population living 400/500 feet above sea level


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Lots of talk the last week or so on netweather about uppers being marginal. And they are, in fact by a good 5 degrees or so.
    -4 uppers just aren't good enough other than seeing mountain snow.
    Still interesting week and hilly areas could well see falling snow in heavy showers. A surprise or 2 is likely!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,182 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Gonzo, I think those charts are for tonight rather than tomorrow night!

    ops, linked tonights by mistake, the charts for tomorrow night are not too different anyway. Temperatures and dew points a degree or two above 0C for much of tomorrow evening and night in Dublin. Looking at this evenings runs sleety rain is probably what Dublin City will end up with and a better chance of snow further inland. Overall tho this looks very marginal away from high ground.


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Lots of talk the last week or so on netweather about uppers being marginal. And they are, in fact by a good 5 degrees or so.
    -4 uppers just aren't good enough other than seeing mountain snow.
    Still interesting week and hilly areas could well see falling snow in heavy showers. A surprise or 2 is likely!

    Really dont understand why this has been hyped in any shape or form the last 2 weeks if it was only going to be a slushy mess


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Well here comes the next bout of cold. ECM not as cold as earlier runs, showing mostly sleety mix especially tomorrow night into Monday. With such a mobile airmass there is going to be a lot of mixing and I suppose the models are showing that with different output from run to run. Looks wintry for sure , how much snow, track and how low is a bit of a lottery but still favours the NW, N and E most I reckon for some accumulations.


    xNkjZ4v.png


    cw8Sszi.gif



    cbeFY1u.png


    oaImOgu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Really dont understand why this has been hyped in any shape or form the last 2 weeks if it was only going to be a slushy mess
    Perhaps because so far out it was possible that things could upgrade. That hasnt happened on this occasion.
    If the well spouted SSW happens things could get interesting though towards 2nd week of January


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    A huge downgrade with the ECMWF in the past 24 hours. The first chart below is for 00Z tomorrow night from today's 12Z run, the second is from yesterday's 18Z run. The third is today's run for two hours earlier (10 pm tomorrow night). Very mixed.

    537241.png

    537200.png

    537242.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The colder air and wintry shower mix approaching the coast behind the front, will see how much the temperature drops in the next few hours.

    temp_uk_dmc2.png

    RGuYWCb.gif

    hzvGJoY.gif


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Lots of talk the last week or so on netweather about uppers being marginal. And they are, in fact by a good 5 degrees or so.
    -4 uppers just aren't good enough other than seeing mountain snow.
    Still interesting week and hilly areas could well see falling snow in heavy showers. A surprise or 2 is likely!

    You really need to be careful when you make statements like this. The 850hPa temperature is used as a guide at 1,000mb, which the airmass is not always 1000mb.

    The air pressure in Ireland will fall below 960mb on Monday.

    Which means that the 850hPa level will be much lower than normal. It is NOT always at 1500 metres.

    Take now, at a temp of 4.9c and an air pressure of 977mb.

    977-850 = 1270 metres.

    So on Monday the 850hPa level will be 1100 metres.

    This means that the 850hPa temperature for sea level snow can be higher with lower air pressure.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    I am fully expecting showers to turn to snow at 2am-3am, as this airmass has a sharper gradient.

    The system that brought snow to Scotland the other day brought some graupel and a dew point of -2c. I was quite surprised as that was not forecast.

    Met office Warning 1:

    “ Following clearance of heavy rain this evening, colder conditions will lead to ice forming on untreated surfaces across many parts of the warning area. There will also be showers which will turn increasingly to snow on high ground: parts of western Scotland look likely to see a few cm above about 200 m elevation, with a slight cover at low levels in heavier showers. Over Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England, any snow cover will be mostly restricted to high level routes, above around 300m, where the odd cm may accumulate during Sunday.”

    Met Office Warning 2(more promising):
    “ A band of rain, sleet and snow followed by wintry showers will move south across Scotland and Northern Ireland on Sunday evening and into parts of northern England and north Wales early on Monday morning. Localised accumulations of 1-3 cm are possible to lower levels but higher accumulations are likely over higher ground. Above 250 metres, accumulations of 5-10 cm are possible. Whilst skies are expected to clear from the north overnight, icy patches are likely to develop and persist through to Monday morning.”


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭ Pangea


    No mention of the yellow warning for snow on Met Éireanns tv forecast's. Lagging behind it's online forecast as usual.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    18z much better uppers after Wednesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    18z much better uppers after Wednesday

    When the precipitation is gone :O


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Gust of 66 knots (122 kph) reported at Mace Head at 10 pm

    PsMETAR MACE 262200Z AUTO 28041G66KT 2900NDV -SHRA BKN017/// BKN100/// 07/06 0981 MSL=


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Gust of 66 knots (122 kph) reported at Mace Head at 10 pm

    PsMETAR MACE 262200Z AUTO 28041G66KT 2900NDV -SHRA BKN017/// BKN100/// 07/06 0981 MSL=

    Was there snow too?!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    18z is a cracker on this evenings gfs!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,421 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Was there snow too?!

    SHRA is "showers of rain" to my uneducated eye in reading TAF reports.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Danno wrote: »
    SHRA is "showers of rain" to my uneducated eye in reading TAF reports.

    I was just joking. This is snow showers thread!


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