Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Private profiles - please note that profiles marked as private will soon be public. This will facilitate moderation so mods can view users' warning histories. All of your posts across the site will appear on your profile page (including PI, RI). Groups posts will remain private except to users who have access to the same Groups as you. Thread here
Some important site news, please read here. Thanks!

bitcoin now v 2017

  • 11-11-2020 10:12pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 362 ✭✭ EastTyrone


    Hi guys,

    Been dipping in and out of crypto for the past few months, nothing massively invested but like keeping an eye on the market, mostly working in altcoins but with a bit in bitcoin and just wondering what do people think of the current bull market?

    How confident are people of the market atm? more so are there any comparisons between this bull run and the bull run in 2017 that led to record prices?

    Could you honestly see prices reach the figures people are talking about or are yo seeing parallels with what happened in 2017?

    I know of course it's very hard to predict and such volatility yada yada yada but just interesting to see other peoples opinions of where the market is going atm.

    Thanks


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 491 ✭✭ Donegal1234


    EastTyrone wrote: »
    Hi guys,

    Been dipping in and out of crypto for the past few months, nothing massively invested but like keeping an eye on the market, mostly working in altcoins but with a bit in bitcoin and just wondering what do people think of the current bull market?

    How confident are people of the market atm? more so are there any comparisons between this bull run and the bull run in 2017 that led to record prices?

    Could you honestly see prices reach the figures people are talking about or are yo seeing parallels with what happened in 2017?

    I know of course it's very hard to predict and such volatility yada yada yada but just interesting to see other peoples opinions of where the market is going atm.

    Thanks

    The first difference between 2017 and now is the bitcoin halving was in may. Where the number of bitcoins mined everyday was cut in half. More Information here https://www.ig.com/en/bitcoin-btc/bitcoin-halving

    The second difference is companies such as square , micro strategy and PayPal are getting involved in bitcoin

    I expect a pull back from from current prices and then new all time high in 2021.


  • Registered Users Posts: 169 ✭✭ Daithi40


    I think the crypto market now has more acceptance and is on the cusp, possibly, of huge corporate buy-in and investment. That's just my 2c from following it fairly closely and investing for the last 6 years or so

    There have been a growing number of u-turns from certain companies and loud but powerful individuals that would lead me to believe that btc and other respected alts that have realistic purpose are now, perhaps, being taken seriously as something that should be considered as part of your investment basket.

    Then again, I'm slightly biased.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,195 ✭✭✭✭ Lex Luthor


    There has been a lot of "acceptance" of crypto since 2017

    If you are in it for the long haul, then dont look at the short term timeframe and zoom out and look at the macro trends

    Although compared to the stock market, crypto is in its infancy and there isnt as much data to work with, it does seem to follow a 4yr pattern with similar trends every year (referring to BTC here)

    Its also doing very similar patterns to the post halving as it did in the previous ones

    So in essence we are not too far off going into the next major growth stage in its course for the next possible 12-18 months.

    Are we going to see voltatiity during this period, YES
    Will there be retraces up to 20/30 maybe 40%, YES

    but if you are in it for the long haul then it shouldnt bother you

    Set yourself an exit strategy and stick to it

    You dont have to time the final fomo stage to strike it "rich" in this next bull market

    At the end of the day, imo we are still early into crypto

    Biggest rule is dont invest anything more than you can afford to lose, crypto is a very speculative investment, but rewards generally dont come unless you are very risky

    BTW, I hate the term crypto....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,525 ✭✭✭ Irish_rat


    EastTyrone wrote: »
    How confident are people of the market atm? more so are there any comparisons between this bull run and the bull run in 2017 that led to record prices?

    Could you honestly see prices reach the figures people are talking about or are yo seeing parallels with what happened in 2017?
    Thanks

    Taking inflation into account the price in 2017 is probably nearly 30k today. So there is still quite a way to go to reach that level.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 59,742 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Irish_rat wrote: »
    Taking inflation into account the price in 2017 is probably nearly 30k today.

    LOL, no it isn't. Inflation in say the USA or the EU has only been around 2% per year or so

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭ Bob24


    EastTyrone wrote: »
    Hi guys,

    Been dipping in and out of crypto for the past few months, nothing massively invested but like keeping an eye on the market, mostly working in altcoins but with a bit in bitcoin and just wondering what do people think of the current bull market?

    How confident are people of the market atm? more so are there any comparisons between this bull run and the bull run in 2017 that led to record prices?

    Could you honestly see prices reach the figures people are talking about or are yo seeing parallels with what happened in 2017?

    I know of course it's very hard to predict and such volatility yada yada yada but just interesting to see other peoples opinions of where the market is going atm.

    Thanks

    I just posted a few words here on what I think is different if you want to have a look.

    I would add to this that with the virus situation and more importantly the insolvency phase to follow, we will see massive central bank and fiscal easing policies, which will be good for all assets and should be particularly good tailwind for the likes of gold and BTC (i.e. hard assets which have limited supply and aren't anyone's liability, while being pretty liquid).

    So medium/long term I am quite bullish.

    Short term? (daily/weekly/monthly outlooks)
    Honestly it is anyone's guess. There will probably be some pullbacks, but no idea at which price point they will occur and how deep they will be. If you have a long term approach, DCA the way to go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 518 kingbhome


    Irish_rat wrote: »
    Taking inflation into account the price in 2017 is probably nearly 30k today. So there is still quite a way to go to reach that level.


    How is this taxable when it reaches that level. If one was to invest 5-10k now in bitcoins and it eventually does go upto 30k, is it taxable e en if it sits without using up some of that investment. I'm at a stage in my life where I'm able to invest this amount along with maybe 500 a month and have been thinking about investing for awhile now but wouldn't really know much about St cos, shares and coins.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭ grindle


    kingbhome wrote: »
    How is this taxable when it reaches that level.

    It's taxable once you sell it. You can keep it until it's whatever price but if you sell, taxed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,525 ✭✭✭ Irish_rat


    kingbhome wrote: »
    How is this taxable when it reaches that level. If one was to invest 5-10k now in bitcoins and it eventually does go upto 30k, is it taxable e en if it sits without using up some of that investment. I'm at a stage in my life where I'm able to invest this amount along with maybe 500 a month and have been thinking about investing for awhile now but wouldn't really know much about St cos, shares and coins.

    Yes you pay 33% tax on gains when you sell the bitcoin after 1270 exemption. So if you hold it for years you don't need to worry about tax until you sell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭ runswithascript


    I am also a new entrant but I have been researching my investment plan extensively for nearly a month now. I nearly, very nearly, invested a small lump sum into cryptocurrency until I learned about Dollar Cost Averaging, you may not make the same returns as investing at the perfect time but on average you still make nearly as much, and how likely is it that the time you choose to invest is the perfect time?

    Spend the same amount every month, spread a lump sum on top of what you plan to keep investing each month over the next year already, when the price goes up you spend the same amount but you get less, when the price is down you benefit from buying more, this mitigates against a crash and downturn, or the retrace everyone is expecting which could be as much as 30% or 40% - if there is a retrace would you not preferred to have kept some of your investment and picked up more for cheaper?


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭ grindle


    if there is a retrace would you not preferred to have kept some of your investment and picked up more for cheaper?

    Unless you're DCAing with all of your available funds, you should have money left over for those kinds of retraces. The couple of times ETH was back in 100-150 range I went ham but those crashes were never guaranteed and I could have been missing a lot of ETH if I'd kept my regular DCA fund waiting for a crash that might never have come.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭ runswithascript


    Other than those influencers with vested BTC interests urging everyone to 'BUY NOW! LAST CHANCE BEFORE MOON! NEVER HAS THERE BEEN A BETTER TIME' etc., others - also invested in BTC long term and with active day trades - are cautious, and warn that a retrace is coming soon, whether that is a few days or in a few weeks.

    If the warnings are correct and there is one up to 30 or 40% I would feel very sick if I had just lump sum invested.

    If the warnings are incorrect and BTC is still going to keep rising, on average, there is not much difference between the return of DCA and investing a lump sum at the perfect time. I did find one study contrary to this opinion, and there may be more, but in my experience more support it.

    My plan is to spread my lump sum out over the next year and a price reduction occurs and there are indicators that a true low has been found I may consider lump summing at that point but even if I just stick with the DCA (not lump summing at all), my original point, the DCA will buy more for the same money during any correction.

    None of this is certain but that is how I am looking at things. Not financial advice, do your own research.


  • Registered Users Posts: 229 ✭✭ donnaille


    grindle wrote: »
    It's taxable once you sell it. You can keep it until it's whatever price but if you sell, taxed.

    Just for clarity, this is any event that triggers a gain (or loss), exchanging/buying Alts included.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,195 ✭✭✭✭ Lex Luthor


    donnaille wrote: »
    Just for clarity, this is any event that triggers a gain (or loss), exchanging/buying Alts included.

    where's my coin?


  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭ antgal23


    JBTFD

    70% retracement coming soon

    Hold for 2-5 years

    Buy a major coin and a few alts


  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭ antgal23


    EastTyrone wrote: »
    Hi guys,

    Been dipping in and out of crypto for the past few months, nothing massively invested but like keeping an eye on the market, mostly working in altcoins but with a bit in bitcoin and just wondering what do people think of the current bull market?

    How confident are people of the market atm? more so are there any comparisons between this bull run and the bull run in 2017 that led to record prices?

    Could you honestly see prices reach the figures people are talking about or are yo seeing parallels with what happened in 2017?

    I know of course it's very hard to predict and such volatility yada yada yada but just interesting to see other peoples opinions of where the market is going atm.

    Thanks

    2017 bull Run was fuelled by Asian retail and ICOs

    This one is because of a wider but still small institutional asset allocation to the crypto space

    This bubble will pop soon but the low will be higher than that of Q1 2018


  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭ antgal23


    kingbhome wrote: »
    How is this taxable when it reaches that level. If one was to invest 5-10k now in bitcoins and it eventually does go upto 30k, is it taxable e en if it sits without using up some of that investment. I'm at a stage in my life where I'm able to invest this amount along with maybe 500 a month and have been thinking about investing for awhile now but wouldn't really know much about St cos, shares and coins.

    A friend of a friend knows a guy who whilst living in Dublin used his UK bank a/c to open an a/c in the UK to trade crypto, that way avoiding Irish taxman


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 59,742 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    I learned about Dollar Cost Averaging, you may not make the same returns as investing at the perfect time but on average you still make nearly as much


    Whoah, hold on a second lad. If you start DCA now and BTC is on a steady decline, you will lose a lot of your investment. It is not guaranteed BTC will be on an upward path eventually. It could be worthless in a few months time. Not likely, but possible

    Investing in cryptocurrencies is risky. Only use money that will not cause you any issues if you lost it all.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭ runswithascript


    antgal23 wrote: »
    JBTFD
    70% retracement coming soon

    I have not heard a percentage that high but that would be great to BTFD :pac: (still making investments while waiting on it)
    antgal23 wrote: »
    This one is because of a wider but still small institutional asset allocation to the crypto space

    This bubble will pop soon but the low will be higher than that of Q1 2018

    I know you are not but I think some people present institutional investment like this would prevent any kind of major retrace or crash etc. Institutions invest in regular stocks and they regularly retrace and crash.
    unkel wrote: »
    Whoah, hold on a second lad. If you start DCA now and BTC is on a steady decline, you will lose a lot of your investment.

    That is not the case - unless of course you specifically mean a steady decline that never recovers, which I agree is very unlikely - the rewards from sticking to the DCA during a devaluation is one of the benefits of DCA - you get more for your money when BTC is cheaper, you get less when you buy when it is more expensive - something DCA limits you in doing.

    Basically I have a small amount to DCA each month but several times that ready to lump sum if there is a significant retrace.


  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭ antgal23


    Example 1

    Institutions bought current rally at 3- 10 k

    MSM reports BTC bull run

    Retail buys at 18 k

    Institutions sell a lot at 18 k therefore absorbing buy side

    Price retraces much lower to find new buyers


    Wash
    Rinse
    Repeat


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭ grindle


    antgal23 wrote: »
    Price retraces much lower to find new buyers


    Wash
    Rinse
    Repeat

    Fingers crossed.


Advertisement