Brexit meat & dairy predictions

lalababa

With a finallity of Brexit looming , what are yeer predictions on price and tariffs on both scenarios?? Beef, lamb and Dairy?
1. No deal
2. Some deal

_Brian

British are now facing Brexit and Covid at same time so I’d think they will want a deal on one to at least gain some stability.

Mooooo

Either way there will be more costs pushed down to the producer. High likelihood prices may increase for British producers so they may push on as well in the initial phases any way

alps

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/12/mps-reject-calls-by-campaigners-to-enshrine-food-safety-in-uk-law

kevthegaff

alps wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/12/mps-reject-calls-by-campaigners-to-enshrine-food-safety-in-uk-law

Not good, it seems like the brits now want to.pull us down with them

_Brian

alps wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/12/mps-reject-calls-by-campaigners-to-enshrine-food-safety-in-uk-law

Hard to know where they are going with this.

My thinking is they need this as a precursor to a trade deal with the US. Being one step closer to a US trade deal probably makes them feel they have a better negotiating position against the EU. Maybe they do.

I bet some Tory mp is at this moment wriggling into a position in the US to be a supplier to the U.K. for this cheap food. Like most things Brexit related it comes down to money.

Here’s a question, does striking a trade deal with the EU prevent them from stroking a deal with the US ??

alps

_Brian wrote: »

Here’s a question, does striking a trade deal with the EU prevent them from stroking a deal with the US ??

Equivalence of standards would be at issue I suspect. They could not import anything into the UK that could subsequently exported to the EU that would not conform to EU standards.

Doing a deal with Europe certainly constrains the standards to which they trade elsewhere..

_Brian

alps wrote: »

Equivalence of standards would be at issue I suspect. They could not import anything into the UK that could subsequently exported to the EU that would not conform to EU standards.

Doing a deal with Europe certainly constrains the standards to which they trade elsewhere..

Indeed, that makes sense.

I still think they will want this put to bed, the whole “we can always trade as wto rules is too uncertain along with covid.

Bass Reeves

kevthegaff wrote: »

Not good, it seems like the brits now want to.pull us down with them

I saw an article in the last few weeks it seems that no matter what way the British skrimp and squeeze they will have to do a deal on food imports. They are only 50% self sufficient in food. If they opt for a tariff free structure they will basically wipe out British agriculture. If they opt for tariffs to save British agriculture they will increase the price of food by 20+%.

What was really interesting was this article questioned the attitude that Irish good producers would take a massive hit. It asked the question of where Britain could source all this cheap food. While in theory it could allow Brazil, South America and Australia access there is no guarantee that these countries could supply them with the here requirements and still hold onto there present market's. To displace product from these markets British retailers would have to pay more. In the short term they might be able to for e Irish producers to reduce price on meat but the price of dairy would increase as there are other options.

The article said there seem to be an understanding of this now beginning in British retailing and acceptance in the case of Brexit it might be as much a supply problem as a price problem.

Not sure how the British public would react if the household trolly increased in price by 10-30% in 2-3 months after the new year

lalababa

Well an update..and brexit is done and dusted. Outcome beef up by 25%, sheep up by 25%? Dairy up by 30%?

Imputs up 400% ...ha. But no I think you can separate the rises of meat and Dairy to pre-fertiliser rises/gas prices/war.

Future increases due to current imput rises...must definitely be yes... so

Meat and Dairy up another 10+%??