Beef price tracker 2

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124046826#Comment_124046826

I gave the advice earlier in what I would do if they were my cattle straight after he posted about his mart prices. Beef finishing is a margins game. There is many factors at play. If you make a mistake its important you do not keep repeating it. I see many that keep making the same errors and fail to understand the errors they make

Ya 3500 plus is a good result and at least he had the sense to bring them home. However going to the mart will probably have set them cattle back I know I did it this year. It could take them up to two weeks to recover there weight. However because of the way the market is, if they were mine I would hang them ASAP.

Those cattle should never have gone to the mart, The mart prices are too volatile at present. Yes there has been incidents where cattle made as much or slightly more than factory price but if you checked LSL where you can see the videos you would see how volatile it was. I posted that just a few pages back about other cattle. Those cattle needed 4 3/4.4 per kg LW to match factory price. That has not been constantly available in marts for a few weeks.

A lot of posters here were under the assumption that the kill would stay under 30k out into next year, They assumed that because there is a world wide shortage of beef the only way the price goes is up. Price is dictated by the volume available to process within the country. We were lucky and unlucky with the dry autumn. It worked in our favor allowing prices to recover after the attempted September price pull. However it backed up cattle. At present there is probably lads holding a few finished cattle until the NY because of Tax. Parlour cows that a couple of years ago would have gone as canners are gone for further finishing. The factory and contracted feedlots are full and I say a lot of lads have filled sheds as grain is cheap

Remember the film the Usual Suspect where Kevin Spacy said " the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist". Well the cartel are at that for years. It got so bad this year that there Agent's even believed that the shortage would continue out into next year.

The only thing that happened this year is the factories got there contract numbers wrong. And when they got them wrong instead of taking the finiancial penalty on the contracts they slaughtered stores. We benefited because of it. While farmers have a history if repeating the same mistake I can gaurantee you the processors will not.

Beef is all about taking you margin replacing and moving on.

kk.man

Anything from 5 to 20p drop in UK factory price for next week.

As a friend of mine says the factories are back talking to each other again.

WoozieWu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124047177#Comment_124047177

yes a big glut of cows in the system over there

grass10

I was at 2 marts this week and their was 2 factories buying at these marts and seemed very anxious for immediate slaughter cattle as well as buying forward stores Angus and Hereford easily making 8 + factory equivalent, all that's wrong in plenty marts is they are not made pay for cattle, , the smaller dealer/agents are only being paid grid price for cattle by the factories and being told to keep cattle 30 days so the factories can buy all the finished cattle for themselves and control the market.

The UK issue is a glut of cows for a few weeks prime cattle are still being paid over 8 euro equivalent

kk.man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124047598#Comment_124047598

That's exactly what's happened. Factories have teamed up with big feeders who were on the periphery till this summer and together with their feedlots and contractors feedlots they now are back in control of the market place. But yes uk cows we're my biggest fear, UK dairies don't show mercy to their suppliers when milk goes pear shaped.

BeGrand2025

The general consensus was that feedlots would buy up all the cattle late summer into Autumn to have them ready for the Christmas kill. Word is lads had them booked in months in advance at €8+ a kilo. No penalties for over 30 months or too big a carcass. For the price those lads paid they would need to have assured price in place.

The price staying at €7.40 a kg really shows that factories aren’t getting the numbers they want. It’s going to be the same next year with mad prices paid in the marts and a big jump late Spring.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124047598#Comment_124047598

The general run of AA is 4.1/ kg LW that is a out 7.7 a kg provided they are under 30 months and QA that is equivalent to a base of 7.3-7.4/ kg when you include 20cQA and a 20c AA bonus. Over 30 months is running is running up to 20c a kg behind that in the marts. HEX's under 30 months 4/ kg. Which is more or less an equivalent base but only inc a 10c HE bonus.

Everything else is running 30c+ per kg behind factory base price at least.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124048484#Comment_124048484

Ya feedlots bought up a lot of cattle, it was a double edge sword for the processors as many of these cattle would have been slaughtered as throughput September and October.

However the Christmas kill has finished and processors did not eat into there feedlot cattle most are still munching away and feedlots have been told to hold until January. It was prices up towards 9/kg these lads were gauranteed.

From next week in the processors will be willing to take a hit on numbers we will see what will happen then.

You might have put the hex on the 7.4/kg