Covid19 in the winter months

CB19Kevo

Its been on my mind that whilst summer has made all this a little easier we are facing a challenging time ahead. My main concerns really are.

- Mental health and isolation as we move towards the darker winter months.
- Increased spread of the virus.
- Pressure on healthcare systems by the regular winter increase in demand.

Out of all these i would hope we will not see a surge in depression / suicide and increased alcohol and drug use.

I suppose its only become very clear to me in the last 2 months or so that this will be an extended issue.

I wonder is there any methods Gov / local communities could look at to counter the damage..

Staycation etc are likely a contributory factor to current nationwide spread..... Winter will knock that on the head.

drunkmonkey

Augeo wrote: »

Staycation etc are likely a contributory factor to current nationwide spread..... Winter will knock that on the head.

The staycation grant only starts in October to encourage us to travel around in winter:D

otnomart

I am in the optimists camp about the Winter, mainly because the weather is naturally conducive to staying at home - versus congregating in crowded places.

Agree with OP that there should be a focus on mental health.
Governements should fund helplines and online therapy sessions.

Wanderer78

Mental health services already struggling, this could be a very bad winter for the sector

Annasopra

CB19Kevo wrote: »

Its been on my mind that whilst summer has made all this a little easier we are facing a challenging time ahead. My main concerns really are.

- Mental health and isolation as we move towards the darker winter months.
- Increased spread of the virus.
- Pressure on healthcare systems by the regular winter increase in demand.

Out of all these i would hope we will not see a surge in depression / suicide and increased alcohol and drug use.

I suppose its only become very clear to me in the last 2 months or so that this will be an extended issue.

I wonder is there any methods Gov / local communities could look at to counter the damage..

Its also season - the interaction of Covid 19 and flu may be catastrophic

hmmm

We need a massive push to get people to take the flu vaccine this year. A combination of Covid and Flu will be very dangerous for the health service, and I personally wouldn't like to get both at the same time.

drunkmonkey

We're only going to get a flu season if we import it just like Covid

Rapid testing at points of entry into the country is the only show in town Yale University is close to releasing a covid spit test with a 3hr turn around, it's going to be open source and available to all. We need these checks at airports and at the same time a rapid test for the flu.
We can avoid both these problems without any vaccines, we need to prepare for it now and be ready with the rapid testing.

My sources

Flu in the Southern Hemisphere has 'practically disappeared.'
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/24/coronavirus-restrictions


Quick and affordable saliva-based COVID-19 test developed by Yale scientists receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization
https://news.yale.edu/2020/08/15/yales-rapid-covid-19-saliva-test-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization

hmmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We can avoid both these problems without any vaccines, we need to prepare for it now and be ready with the rapid testing.

I'm not going to get into an argument with an anti-vaxer, other than to say that one of the simplest and most helpful things to reduce the strain on the health service any of us can do over the coming months is to get the flu vaccine.

Seamai

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not going to get into an argument with an anti-vaxer, other than to say that one of the simplest and most helpful things to reduce the strain on the health service any of us can do over the coming months is to get the flu vaccine.

+ 100

drunkmonkey

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not going to get into an argument with an anti-vaxer, other than to say that one of the simplest and most helpful things to reduce the strain on the health service any of us can do over the coming months is to get the flu vaccine.

I'm not an antivaxxer I'm an anti mandatory masker, get your facts straight.
You don't need a flu vaccine if you don't import it, what part of that does not compute. If we're importing the Flu were importing Covid it's that simple.
A Vaccine is not the only way to get a handle on things, you need to start looking at alternatives as there may never be a vaccine.

Wanderer78

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'm not an antivaxxer I'm an anti mandatory masker, get your facts straight.
You don't need a flu vaccine if you don't import it, what part of that does not compute. If we're importing the Flu were importing Covid it's that simple.
A Vaccine is not the only way to get a handle on things, you need to start looking at alternatives as there may never be a vaccine.

what are the chances of shutting down our borders?

drunkmonkey

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what are the chances of shutting down our borders?

Who said shut down our borders, were talking a 3/4hr travel delay, Rapid cheap testing is a game changer in the fight against Covid.

aido79

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what are the chances of shutting down our borders?

Zero...and the sooner people get their heads around this the better. We need to think long term not just close the border for a few weeks and hope it goes away.

aido79

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Who said shut down our borders, were talking a 3/4hr travel delay, Rapid cheap testing is a game changer in the fight against Covid.

I agree with this. Future lockdowns could also be avoided rapid testing.

Oranage2

I suggest buying a good jacket because it's going to be a long cold winter in lockdown

drunkmonkey

aido79 wrote: »

I agree with this. Future lockdowns could also be avoided rapid testing.

Rapid testing solves a lot of problems. We haven't had a reliable one yet but this Yale one sounds promising.

Annasopra

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'm not an antivaxxer I'm an anti mandatory masker, get your facts straight.
You don't need a flu vaccine if you don't import it, what part of that does not compute. If we're importing the Flu were importing Covid it's that simple.
A Vaccine is not the only way to get a handle on things, you need to start looking at alternatives as there may never be a vaccine.

What evidence have you the flu is only transmitted through travel?

The J Stands for Jay

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Who said shut down our borders, were talking a 3/4hr travel delay, Rapid cheap testing is a game changer in the fight against Covid.

Good luck stopping traffic for 3/4 hours on the N1 and the hundreds of other border crossings.

drunkmonkey

McGaggs wrote: »

Good luck stopping traffic for 3/4 hours on the N1 and the hundreds of other border crossings.

We don't have an alternative, it's better than 14 days quarantine.

landofthetree

The perfect temperature to spread a virus is around 4 degrees. The temperature in the meat plants. Also a typical Irish winters day.

drunkmonkey

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

What evidence have you the flu is only transmitted through travel?

You thanked that blatant lie of a post, go do your own research.

seamus

otnomart wrote: »

I am in the optimists camp about the Winter, mainly because the weather is naturally conducive to staying at home - versus congregating in crowded places.

My main concern in this regard is that playdates in the park, become playdates in someone's house.

A few drinks in the back garden on a nice evening, become a few drinks in the kitchen cos it's too cold outside.

In the more general sense I do think that we will see considerably less circulating of all illnesses this year. But I'd also be concerned that because lots of people will see no impact from their socialising over the summer, that they'll think that the same kind of socialising will be fine (just indoors instead) over the winter.

Annasopra

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You thanked that blatant lie of a post, go do your own research.

So none. Plus a weird obsession with thanking.

The J Stands for Jay

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We don't have an alternative, it's better than 14 days quarantine.

How are you going to man these 300 border crossing points with experts and facilities to process the tests? Will there be any left over for the ports and airports?

kowloonkev

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

What evidence have you the flu is only transmitted through travel?

How would it be transmitted without any travel?

I would have thought that anybody with two brain cells to rub together could come to the conclusion that people carry the virus around and spread it through travelling about, but apparently not.

Do you also require evidence that we s**t through our ar*eh*les?

drunkmonkey

McGaggs wrote: »

How are you going to man these 300 border crossing points with experts and facilities to process the tests? Will there be any left over for the ports and airports?

Sure keep importing the Covid and Flu, great plan. A logical thinking person might try and see can we get the North on board with rapid testing when it arrives rather than give up at the first hurdle.
I don't get the impression that most of the posters here don't realise how beneficial rapid cheap testing is in the fight.

drunkmonkey

Oranage2 wrote: »

I suggest buying a good jacket because it's going to be a long cold winter in lockdown

You need a goggle jacket this winter..handy for nipping in for a liter of milk.



https://www.cpcompany.co.uk/collections/goggle-jackets#s-2

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Who said shut down our borders, were talking a 3/4hr travel delay, Rapid cheap testing is a game changer in the fight against Covid.

McGaggs wrote: »

Good luck stopping traffic for 3/4 hours on the N1 and the hundreds of other border crossings.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We don't have an alternative, it's better than 14 days quarantine.

There are hundreds of routes from NI to the ROI, there'll be no border testing done there, guaranteed.

Loads of alternatives, all non essential retails outlets to be closed would be a start. Shop online for everything but food & groceries. Restaurants also, restaurants and retail are bringing people from miles apart together.

otnomart

seamus wrote: »

My main concern in this regard is that playdates in the park, become playdates in someone's house.

A few drinks in the back garden on a nice evening, become a few drinks in the kitchen cos it's too cold outside.

I absolutely see your point.


Of course I very much dread the thought of some having massive house parties.


However, in practical terms, most families already socialise in a small bubble, people front rooms are not massive, so if each family sticks to their own small bubble, the risks (to them, to their bubble and to their community) will be minimised.
Or so I hope.

drunkmonkey

Augeo wrote: »

There are hundreds of routes from NI to the ROI, there'll be no border testing done there, guaranteed.

Loads of alternatives, all non essential retails outlets to be closed would be a start. Shop online for everything but food & groceries. Restaurants also, restaurants and retail are bringing people from miles apart together.

Northern Ireland border with us doesn't require testing if NI has rapid testing at their sea and airports. They will agree to this if there is cheap and quick way of getting people safely into the country.

I'm not to keen on your alternative of nuking the High street and any bit of normality we have left.

seamus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

if there is cheap and quick way of getting people safely into the country.

There's not.

There's a concept in project management, that's usually represented as a triangle.

All tasks can have 3 traits - they can be done cheap, they can be done fast, and they can be done well. But they can only be two of these things at any one time.

If you want something done cheap and fast, then it's not going to be done well.

If you want it done cheap and done well, then it's not going to be done fast.

Or if you want it done fast and done well, then it's not going to be cheap.

The Unbearables

Going to be very grim. I know a lot of people working in the health sector and they are very worried indeed. What worries them most is the same twits clapping for health care workers a few weeks ago are now in the "it's all a conspiracy by the gubberment to keep us locked up and take away out rights" crowd of whoppers and they are going around like the virus isn't dangerous anymore.

drunkmonkey

seamus wrote: »

There's not.

There's a concept in project management, that's usually represented as a triangle.

All tasks can have 3 traits - they can be done cheap, they can be done fast, and they can be done well. But they can only be two of these things at any one time.

If you want something done cheap and fast, then it's not going to be done well.

If you want it done cheap and done well, then it's not going to be done fast.

Or if you want it done fast and done well, then it's not going to be cheap.

Did you read the Yale report I posted. We can do it cheap and fast at the moment but your correct we can't do it well that's why the Yale test adds the missing link.
I believe rapid testing will have to be adopted and the ducks are starting to line up now.

Thierry12

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not going to get into an argument with an anti-vaxer, other than to say that one of the simplest and most helpful things to reduce the strain on the health service any of us can do over the coming months is to get the flu vaccine.

For what though?

Flu vaccine is a roll of a dice

Some years they are less than 20% effective

Are we gonna get injected with 10 different flu vaccines?

Tenzor07

Thierry12 wrote: »

For what though? Flu vaccine is a roll of a dice
Some years they are less than 20% effective
Are we gonna get injected with 10 different flu vaccines?

Flu vaccine for those with underlying health conditions.

And there's going to be a LOT of people suffering additional anxiety if they get a Flu and think its Covid so they will go for the flu jab.
Otherwise you'll have Doctors surgery's all over the country inundated with people looking for tests...

So while it's very easy to dismiss getting the flu jab, the way things are now it's definitely worth getting...

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Northern Ireland border with us doesn't require testing if NI has rapid testing at their sea and airports. They will agree to this if there is cheap and quick way of getting people safely into the country...............

There will be no testing of folk from England at NI airports, you can be 100% sure of that.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

............

I'm not to keen on your alternative of nuking the High street and any bit of normality we have left.

To get the schools open "nuking the High street" as you put it is not at all unlikely IMO.

JoChervil

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'm not an antivaxxer I'm an anti mandatory masker, get your facts straight.
You don't need a flu vaccine if you don't import it, what part of that does not compute. If we're importing the Flu were importing Covid it's that simple.
A Vaccine is not the only way to get a handle on things, you need to start looking at alternatives as there may never be a vaccine.

Well, you want to shut our borders on a country level, but you don't want to shut yourself up with a mask on a very local personal level. Where is logic in it?

hmmm

Thierry12 wrote: »

For what though?

Anything we can do to reduce pressure on the health service over the Winter is a good thing. We don't know how effective the Flu vaccine will be, but we know it will be better than nothing.

ixoy

Is it feasible to make the flu vaccination free to encourage take up?

Wanderer78

ixoy wrote:

Is it feasible to make the flu vaccination free to encourage take up?

Would make a lot of sense

JoChervil

kowloonkev wrote: »

How would it be transmitted without any travel?

I would have thought that anybody with two brain cells to rub together could come to the conclusion that people carry the virus around and spread it through travelling about, but apparently not.

Do you also require evidence that we s**t through our ar*eh*les?

Migrating birds, frozen food delivered from abroad etc.

Tenzor07

JoChervil wrote: »

Migrating birds, frozen food delivered from abroad etc.

If you catch it off a flying Duck or a Fish finger it would be extremely unfortunate!

ixoy

ixoy wrote: »

Is it feasible to make the flu vaccination free to encourage take up?

Depends where the money come from.

No dole bonus to cover it perhaps?

drunkmonkey

ixoy wrote: »

Is it feasible to make the flu vaccination free to encourage take up?

Isn't it free for health care workers and they still won't take it every year, Harris pleading them to save lives last year and there was still a terrible take up. Unless they actually cop on and take it they'll keep infecting patients and killing them.
Leo has already said this year they've no business in health care if they don't take it.

antimatterx

ixoy wrote: »

Is it feasible to make the flu vaccination free to encourage take up?

What would cost price be of the vaccine, and administration of the vaccine?

It seems to be around €20 - 30 from the GP and various pharmacies. If we ballpark it at 25, then the cost is around €125,000,000. It would probably cost less than that if it's kept at cost price.

I think it would be a worthy investment if it keeps people out of hospitals. We've spent a serious amount of money so far on this, what's another ~100m to tie us over.

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Isn't it free for health care workers and they still won't take it every year, Harris pleading them to save lives last year and there was still a terrible take up. Unless they actually cop on and take it they'll keep infecting patients and killing them.
Leo has already said this year they've no business in health care if they don't take it.

Flu vaccine is free for front line workers. I received it myself. Prevention is better than the cure.

Anybody who thinks that vaccines cause autism need to wind their neck in.

Type of people who wear MAGA hats and think that mandatory masks are taking away their freedoms.

Goose76

Augeo wrote: »

Staycation etc are likely a contributory factor to current nationwide spread..... Winter will knock that on the head.

I'd say any benefits from the lack of staycations will be completely eroded by the festive period and the socialising arising from it.

And add additional alcohol into the mix on a nationwide level, we could be in for a disaster come January.

Limpy

Wait till seasonal flu and colds are about. Total chaos. Jobs will require people to isolate for 14 days or get a negative test if someone has a cold. People will under report if they have a fever ect as to not lose holiday's. Same if the misses or kids have one. Force majeures and sick leave will be at an all time high.