Lukashenko

dere34

Alexander Lukashenko has 'won' yet another term as President of Belarus - a position he has held since 1994. Riots have erupted in Minsk and the internet has been shut down.

Is this the end of Europe's last dictatorship?

biko

There hasn't been a free and fair election in Belarus since 1995.

Yurt2

Looks like he had been ditched by Putin? Maybe I'm losing the run of myself, but perhaps don't get surprised if things get unstable and Vlad pulls a Crimea on Belarus.

dere34

This could be another Ukraine scenario. If Lukashenko is ousted Putin will take action to make sure they don't turn west.

Gatling

Yurt! wrote: »

Looks like he had been ditched by Putin? Maybe I'm losing the run of myself, but perhaps don't get surprised if things get unstable and Vlad pulls a Crimea on Belarus.

He's looking to play both sides he wants close ties to the EU but stay in Putin's sphere for whenever the crap hits the fan and needs russian military advisers to pay a visit and prop himself up

TheValeyard

His days could be numbered.

Russians are not exactly happy with him. European governments hate him.

Tsikhanouskaya is exactly who Belarus needs. A progressive that has support across the political spectrum.

Support for Putin in Belarus has been on the wane for a long time, very different to Crimea where there was a massive % that considered themselves Russian.

Pa ElGrande

This was from Niall Doherty 3 weeks ago (The only Irish vlogger in Belarus.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4DY79Drufg

Yurt2

Didn't that guy in the video post here? I'm almost convinced I remember there was poster who was Irish and.based in Minsk. Can't be too many Micks flaoting around that neck of the woods.

Infini

Personally I think Lukashenko is on his last leg's, rigging an election to say he won 80% of the vote when he's widely unpopular is a level of obvious electorial fraud it could easily push enough out to say enough.

He also managed to piss of Russia as well which is a big mistake as if Putin decides he's gotta go then his days are numbered. Regardless the like's of Lukashenko are a relic of a past era and the sooner he's chucked out of power the better the likes of him are unfit to rule in this day an age.

Only thing is wether he cracks down again or people rise up in numbers to drive him out this time he's not the type to go quietly he has to be pushed out.

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

Didn't that guy in the video post here? I'm almost convinced I remember there was poster who was Irish and.based in Minsk. Can't be too many Micks flaoting around that neck of the woods.

You'd be surprised.

Infini

Infini wrote: »

Personally I think Lukashenko is on his last leg's, rigging an election to say he won 80% of the vote when he's widely unpopular is a level of obvious electorial fraud it could easily push enough out to say enough.

He also managed to piss of Russia as well which is a big mistake as if Putin decides he's gotta go then his days are numbered. Regardless the like's of Lukashenko are a relic of a past era and the sooner he's chucked out of power the better the likes of him are unfit to rule in this day an age.

Only thing is wether he cracks down again or people rise up in numbers to drive him out this time he's not the type to go quietly he has to be pushed out.

That's the thing, could get very messy, very quickly.

biko

Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya has left Belarus for neighbouring Lithuania.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/belarus-opposition-candidate-lithuania-protests-svetlana-tikhanouskaya

She was in Roscrea for a while.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya: from 'Chernobyl child' in Ireland to political limelight
Host Henry Deane remembers Belarus’s opposition leader arriving in Roscrea at the age of 12

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/svetlana-tikhanovskaya-from-chernobyl-child-in-ireland-to-political-limelight

Gregor Samsa

I work with (not for) a number of people in a company in Minsk. They reported internet issues yesterday which continue today – the Government shutting down access to prevent criticism and dissent. They’re able to get sporadic access, so we’ve been able to communicate with them a little bit.

They usually don’t talk politics at all, but one of them told us today that it was all kicking off over there. He said that factories were beginning to go on strike (unheard of), and people were taking to the streets in very large numbers. He said that there had been casualties and that the Government had blood on their hands, and there was no going back now. He had expected the Government to crack down hard on the protests yesterday, but that they’d got to the stage now that he didn’t think the Government could stop them. It’s a worrying time for them. He’s young and seems to be optimistic about victory, but he may well also be naive.

I think what happens next depends on what Putin decides - Belarus is a buffer between Russia and the EU, and very much inside Russia’s sphere of influence. If he thinks it’s time for Lukashenko to go, he’ll sit back and let things take their course. But he’ll want a say in who replaces him, so there’ll be some hands on involvement. If he wants Lukashenko to stay, we could see the appearance of the Little Green Men we saw in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Putin congratulated Lukashenko on his victory and promised "mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all areas." But it's hard to say whether that's a ringing endorsement of Lukashenko personally or not. It reads to me more of an acknowledgement that Russia will remain involved in Belarus no matter what.

Personally, I hope for the best for the protestors. I’ve visited Minsk, and it’s a beautiful place, and the people of Belarus are lovely. But the country has serious issues due to the corruption and negligence of it’s Government, and a crooked ruler who’s been in place without free opposition for 26 years. But I think they face an uphill struggle, and my fear is that it won’t end well for them.

Muahahaha

Was there ever any indication of the support that Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya had? If it was a fair election would she have won it?

Gregor Samsa

Muahahaha wrote: »

Was there ever any indication of the support that Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya had? If it was a fair election would she have won it?

If there were fair elections, she wouldn't have even been a candidate. She was only standing in for her husband as a matter of principle after he was arrested and had his candidacy rejected by the Central Election Commission. I don't think she ever claimed that she could be an effective President, and I doubt many would expect her to be. Her campaign was all about highlighting the fact that there isn't free elections. Her main campaign promise was to deliver free and fair elections within 6 months of her taking office. So she was basically standing in this election on a platform of immediately holding another election. There was no indication that she was going to stand in the second one.

After the election, she did claim:

"We have official protocols from many poll stations, where the number of votes in my favour are many more times than for another candidate."

But I guess it's impossible to tell for sure what exact level of spupport she or her campaign had, in a country where one individual holds the reins of power so tighly.

Muahahaha

yeah knew the husband got locked up but had just been wondering if there were any opinion polls on him or his wife v Lukashenko. Opinion polls are probably something a dictator doesnt want to allow Im guessing but was just wondering.

riffmongous

Indeed, I think the point of her candidacy was that a vote for her was just a vote for freedom from Lukashenko. It's also why I don't think she's of any interest anymore, the future lies in the hands of the protestors and the police suppressing them.

Gatling

Looks like we might get Russian troops getting involved .

He gave a speech today at a forced rally decrying NATO were rapidly building up forces on the Belarus border, followed by telling the crowd he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin said Mr Putin had assured the Belarusian leader that Moscow was ready to provide help in accordance with a military pact.

A statement from Moscow also spoke of external pressure being applied to Belarus, but did not say where from.


He's refusing to re-run the election saying it will be the death of the state if it's allowed

dere34

Belarus could merge with Russia, they are already on the path to this with the Union State.

TheValeyard

Gatling wrote: »

Looks like we might get Russian troops getting involved .

He gave a speech today at a forced rally decrying NATO were rapidly building up forces on the Belarus border, followed by telling the crowd he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin said Mr Putin had assured the Belarusian leader that Moscow was ready to provide help in accordance with a military pact.

A statement from Moscow also spoke of external pressure being applied to Belarus, but did not say where from.


He's refusing to re-run the election saying it will be the death of the state if it's allowed

Could possibly happen. But Putin absolutely dispises him.

Bonniedog

The amount of people here who thought Putin was going to shaft Lukashenko is laughable. And displays absolutely zero knowledge of relationship between Belarus and the Soviet/Russian state.

Irishman80

NATO can't allow Russian troops to get involved in Belarus. Russian military in Belarus practically cuts off the ability of NATO to defend the Baltic States.

It's time to stop appeasing/fearing Putin.

Gatling

Bonniedog wrote: »

The amount of people here who thought Putin was going to shaft Lukashenko is laughable. And displays absolutely zero knowledge of relationship between Belarus and the Soviet/Russian state.

Putin can do what he pleases , would shaft lukashenko and could still very well do , especially considering Putin is the butt of more jokes than his puppet in the white house thanks to his Sputnik IV claims , Belarus has some valuable pipelines to Western Europe ,by all accounts Belarusians want closer ties with Europe remind us about his pal in Ukraine and how that turned out ,Putin can't be trusted this could go several ways

TheValeyard

Bonniedog wrote: »

The amount of people here who thought Putin was going to shaft Lukashenko is laughable. And displays absolutely zero knowledge of relationship between Belarus and the Soviet/Russian state.

This is very different to Ukraine, there isnt a strong pro-Russian opposition front or friendly civilian grouping.

Putin might just look at Armenia. 2018 revolution ousted that pro-Kremlin figure, but Russia seems happy enough with the new democratic leader since its economic interests are doing very well there and it remained part of the Eurasian economic union.

Just as possible that Putin will work with a new leader that keeps things smooth and running well in Belarus. Then again, its Putin, might just send the tanks in to make life difficult for NATO movements.

dere34

He's agreed to hold a new election.

Gatling

dere34 wrote: »

He's agreed to hold a new election.

He said they would have to kill him first before new elections could take place

Muahahaha

dere34 wrote: »

He's agreed to hold a new election.

whats the source, all Im seeing is his him saying earlier today that you would have to kill him to get a new election.

Even if there is a new election sure he will be fixing that one too. He is just not credible after 26 years in power. Analysts are also saying that Putin wouldnt mind removing him, but provided only that the regime can continue on the way Russia want it to. They also said that Putin sending in tanks could backfire badly and Putin is wary of this, a political solution is what they want because this isn't Ukraine where there was pro-Russia and pro-EU factions, the Belerus problem is just the public wanting an end to the dictatorship and for free and fair elections to be held. It is a movement for democracy, its not a movement for or against the EU and Russia.

biko

dere34 wrote: »

He's agreed to hold a new election.

I have not seen this news, do you have a credible source?


Less than an hour ago
Belarus live updates: Lukashenko says no new election 'unless you kill me'
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-live-updates-lukashenko-says-no-new-election-unless-you-kill-me/a-54594736

Itssoeasy

Hopefully this is the end of him in power. I've had interactions with many Belarusian people over the years and they were all very nice if a bit guarded and on edge at times(the adults more so that kids) which showed itself in in one person being very guarded over his passport and very wary of buying things for themselves even when they had money to do it. I don't know whether they taught they could be tracked or what.

Also, there was one person who was a teacher and was in charge of a polling station and was told by a government official that "you can vote for whoever you want, but you know who you should vote for" which seems to have been the pitch for nearly three decades with this gangster.

As I say hopefully this might be the start of a new era for a people who deserve it.

Itssoeasy

biko wrote: »

I have not seen this news, do you have a credible source?


Less than an hour ago
Belarus live updates: Lukashenko says no new election 'unless you kill me'
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-live-updates-lukashenko-says-no-new-election-unless-you-kill-me/a-54594736

"Unless you kill me" well it happened in Romania in 1989 so maybe he shouldn't be giving the protesters any ideas. He probably doesn't want to end up like Nicolae Ceausescu.

biko

Considering Belarus' proximity to Moscow I doubt Putin will allow anyone too US friendly taking power in Minsk.

Itssoeasy

Listening back to an interview from a Russian government MP from the BBC world service and it seems "polish and Baltic state nobles" are part of the problem. He also called the Ukrainian president a "clown" and he seemed to be saying that president Lukaschenko needs to not be as rigid.

MontgomeryClift

Looking through the major media views on Lukashenko, he's clearly the bad guy we're all supposed to despise. When I see this, I think of Assad using poison gas on his own people, weapons of mass destruction and babies being dumped from incubators.

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

The vultures would love to install a government that was both hostile to Russia and allowed them to loot Belarus. It looks like we have another Orange Revolution in the making.

rossie1977

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

Looking through the major media views on Lukashenko, he's clearly the bad guy we're all supposed to despise. When I see this, I think of Assad using poison gas on his own people, weapons of mass destruction and babies being dumped from incubators.

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

The vultures would love to install a government that was both hostile to Russia and allowed them to loot Belarus. It looks like we have another Orange Revolution in the making.

Russia right now is hyper capitalist..

Limpy

Luk thought he could play a balancing act to get more leverage from Putin and the West. Now the west are giving him his reward. He should of kept Putin closer. Either way how many sucker's will die for the West and Russia in Belarus.

Limpy

Itssoeasy wrote: »

"Unless you kill me" well it happened in Romania in 1989 so maybe he shouldn't be giving the protesters any ideas. He probably doesn't want to end up like Nicolae Ceausescu.

There's no way Russia would have fell Asleep at the wheel with Belarus. They will have plenty of options to make this very messy. Ukraine was a good test and they got Crimea without firing a bullet.

Irishman80

Limpy wrote: »

There's no way Russia would have fell Asleep at the wheel with Belarus. They will have plenty of options to make this very messy. Ukraine was a good test and they got Crimea without firing a bullet.

Not true. Putin has a very weak hand here. The only way he wins is if NATO and the West are weak.

Limpy

The EU is weak, Belarus is not going to become a member anytime soon. So who takes care of them during a global pandemic?

Irishman80

Limpy wrote: »

The EU is weak, Belarus is not going to become a member anytime soon. So who takes care of them during a global pandemic?

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

Limpy

Irishman80 wrote: »

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

Who cares about sanctions on Russia. As long as Belarus are not brought into the EU I don't care what happens

Irishman80

Limpy wrote: »

Who cares about sanctions on Russia. As long as Belarus are not brought into the EU I don't care what happens

The dreams of a new Russian empire are falling down around Putin. About time...

AMKC

Irishman80 wrote: »

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

None of it good. It looks like a beautiful country Belerus but they want to be careful for what they wish for or they could end up like Syria or Lybia or worse be the start of the next big war.
Lukenshenko needs to go. His people have came out and told him that so unless he wants his country torn apart and a lot of blood on his hands the right and logical thing to do would be to stand down.

Limpy

Irishman80 wrote: »

The dreams of a new Russian empire are falling down around Putin. About time...

Yeah we'll get Trump to take over the world he is loved as much.

Gatling

Irishman80 wrote: »

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

Wouldn't happen , several eu countries and NATO members are heavily dependent on russian oil and gas supplies ,
Hence why Putin isn't too bothered with sanctions ,or illegally occupying parts of Ukraine ,they still sit at the UN top table ,
Till it's decided to to remove their seat at the UN and removed from the swift banking system it's business as usual in Moscow

Infini

Truth is Russia can't just go in there and put in their own puppet without serious consequences. They were willing to take the hit with Ukraine over Crimea but it would probably be too costly this time around not to mention it would seriously increase hostility with the Baltic states as well as the EU as a whole. Risk/Reward is definately not in Putin's favour and it likely isnt worth getting his hands dirty when the guy in charge actually brought all this on himself with his own behavior. There's being a cute hoor and then there's just being a brazen fool.

What's happening in Belarus is essentially your typical tin pot dictator who's been around too long and squandered his support base to the point even they're beginning to turn on them. Arresting people he doesn't like will only aggravate the situation especially since they look to be prepared to call a General Strike at this point to force him out. He just can't accept the truth in that he's a hasbeen and his time has passed. The more he pushes against his own people the more they'll push back until he either leaves or is driven out. Hell it isn't truly his own choice in the end because all it take's is his lieutenent's deciding it's not worth being taken down with him who will drive him out if the people rise up in large enough numbers.

Polar101

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

When you manipulate elections, it's pretty difficult to judge popular support. I'm sure he knows his popular support isn't quite what the election results show, but it also makes it difficult to know how much opposition there is. There's also the Covid factor, people are more willing to overlook poor governance when they aren't suddenly dying - but now you've got your president telling you things will go great if you drive tractors and go to the sauna, which doesn't really inspire faith in the leader.

imme

Deleted User wrote: »

Tsikhanouskaya is exactly who Belarus needs. A progressive that has support across the political spectrum.

Support for Putin in Belarus has been on the wane for a long time, very different to Crimea where there was a massive % that considered themselves Russian.

Can you explain what you mean by "progressive", you say that she is "A Progressive".

imme

The end of the road looks to be in sight for Lukashenko, he went to a tractor wheel factory on Monday and got a less than welcoming welcome.

There are clips of him trying to speak in front of a microphone while protesters are making their voices heard.
How can he come back from the position of being booed and shouted down.

There's another clip of him asking a protester to take him on, his minders guide him away.

There's a lovely clip of the Minsk Philharmonic singing in protest.

Elmer Blooker

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

Looking through the major media views on Lukashenko, he's clearly the bad guy we're all supposed to despise. When I see this, I think of Assad using poison gas on his own people, weapons of mass destruction and babies being dumped from incubators.

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

The vultures would love to install a government that was both hostile to Russia and allowed them to loot Belarus. It looks like we have another Orange Revolution in the making.

Let them have their 'freedom' courtesy of the IMF, I'll have no sympathy for them when their country is shut down and becomes an economic basket case like Ukraine.

There's a lovely clip of the Minsk Philharmonic singing in protest.

They'll be the first to go when there isn't any money to pay them!

riffmongous

God forbid people want free and fair elections eh