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What if we had continued as normal?

  • 10-08-2020 12:38pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭ mr_fegelien


    Let's say when at the start of this year, the world saw the news about the coronavirus in Wuhan but world governments refused to close down and operated as normal. Where would we be now?

    Would we have achieved herd immunity? Would the economic and mental health damage be less for the time being and in years to come? I'm not sure I agree that lockdown was a good idea?


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 6,263 Mod ✭✭✭✭ yerwanthere123


    We'd have been playing Russian Roulette with peoples lives, and considerably more people would be dead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,118 ✭✭✭ Sesshoumaru


    Let's say when at the start of this year, the world saw the news about the coronavirus in Wuhan but world governments refused to close down and operated as normal. Where would we be now?

    Would we have achieved herd immunity? Would the economic and mental health damage be less for the time being and in years to come? I'm not sure I agree that lockdown was a good idea?

    What do you think yourself?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,118 ✭✭✭ Sesshoumaru


    We'd have been playing Russian Roulette with peoples lives, and considerably more people would be dead.

    The US is engaged in a large scale experiment on behalf of the world to see what happens in certain states when you don't lock down, wear masks or generally pretend the virus is no worse than the flu. Results won't be surprising I think, but we need only wait a few more weeks to see the result.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 gabeeg


    The US is engaged in a large scale experiment on behalf of the world to see what happens in certain states when you don't lock down, wear masks or generally pretend the virus is no worse than the flu. Results won't be surprising I think, but we need only wait a few more weeks to see the result.

    Eh some of the preliminary results are in, and it's not looking good


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,118 ✭✭✭ Sesshoumaru


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Eh some of the preliminary results are in, and it's not looking good

    I would expect it to not look good. I expect overflowing ICU wards and hospital panels deciding who gets treatment and who doesn't. That's what I expect. Will still be interesting to see it actually happen.

    Not sure what other excuses the deniers will use after this? But we'll see.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 31 ✭✭✭ ShockChance


    September will show how bad America handled this crises.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,087 ✭✭✭✭ Oranage2


    People would be petrified to leave their homes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,592 ✭✭✭ Tenzor07


    Ask Sweden?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,706 ✭✭✭ xieann


    OP get hold of the movie 'Outbreak' with Dustin Hoffmann and Renee Russo.


    Naturally, you yourself would like the small town destroyed for the eye candy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭ The Unbearables


    Let's say when at the start of this year, the world saw the news about the coronavirus in Wuhan but world governments refused to close down and operated as normal. Where would we be now?

    Would we have achieved herd immunity? Would the economic and mental health damage be less for the time being and in years to come? I'm not sure I agree that lockdown was a good idea?

    Health systems all over the world would have collapsed. Economy's would have collapsed as people refused to use public transport and go to work crammed in with other people. Millions would have died and most of them would have been people with underlying conditions and the elderly although plenty of young and fit would have died also and have had long term lung and heart issues.

    All and all i think we've handled and are continuing to handle the virus well here in this country given the difficult hand we've been dealt by China.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,122 ✭✭✭ justshane


    This is what happened in Sweden. As much as the lock down was/is frustrating it was a necessary move.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,442 ✭✭✭ JDD


    This is something I have been wondering about. We all saw the overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and the general consensus was that it was going to be an unmitigated disaster in the US due to the structure of their healthcare system. What happened in Italy and Spain was the central reason for our very strict lockdown.

    Certainly, it looked like this was the right conclusion when coronavirus hit New York, but even then the situation wasn't as bad as it was in Bergamo or Madrid a few weeks earlier. Now we have it spread to Texas and Florida and California, and despite the numbers being diagnosed there doesn't appear to be overflowing hospitals, doctors deciding who gets a ventilator and who is too far gone, no further pictures of refridgered trucks outside hospitals, or the army bringing bodies to crematoriums.

    In fact, despite the numbers being diagnosed, deaths are nowhere near what they were in April and May in the US. While clearly they are increasing, not at the rate they did in early April. So I guess we will see what the outcome is. Yes, they have definitely had way more deaths to date than they would have had if they had imposed a full lockdown. But there is some reason to believe that in two or three years, they might have had less deaths than other countries that swung from full lockdown to half reopening to full lockdown. Certainly they may be picking up on cancers earlier. The rate of suicide goes up at the same time as the rate of unemployment goes up - it was estimated in Ireland that there were between 300 and 500 additional suicides when the unemployment rate went from 4.5% to 8.5% in the earlier part of the recession. Clearly the suicide numbers will be less than the additional deaths from covid, and probably the numbers ultimately dying from undiagnosed cancer, but when you add all the "avoidable" deaths that will have resulted from lockdown, there may not be a huge difference between that and those who would have died from covid if it had been left run free.

    What this will all come down to is the vaccine. If we get a working vaccine in H1 2021, then the lockdowns will have been worth it. If we don't, then those who let the virus run free may come out of it in a better position than the rest of us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭ yosemitesam1


    Maybe 1000-2000 more deaths in the country and overall things would be much better than they currently are.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,323 ✭✭✭ Macy0161


    I don't think there was a realistic choice at the time.

    However, the numbers of (apparently) asymptomatic cases now around the meat processing plants does have me wondering will it be more like the flu, without the vaccine? The vulnerable groups are the same, so assuming asymptomatic remain asymptomatic with no long term consequences, where does that leave us? It's a bad thing for the transmission of the virus, but if it can be so far from the worst case scenarios?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,336 ✭✭✭✭ Hello 2D Person Below


    Maybe 1000-2000 more deaths in the country and overall things would be much better than they currently are.

    Baseless nonsense.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭ Hoboo


    Maybe 1000-2000 more deaths in the country and overall things would be much better than they currently are.

    Not if you were one of the 1000-2000.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,332 ✭✭✭ Charles Babbage


    This thread is based on a false premise, even if governments had not closed places who is going to go out to a pub or restaurant and get a possibly fatal disease? Who is going to work there? The government is merely coordinating something responsible people are going to do anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭ The Unbearables


    Macy0161 wrote: »
    I don't think there was a realistic choice at the time.

    However, the numbers of (apparently) asymptomatic cases now around the meat processing plants does have me wondering will it be more like the flu, without the vaccine? The vulnerable groups are the same, so assuming asymptomatic remain asymptomatic with no long term consequences, where does that leave us? It's a bad thing for the transmission of the virus, but if it can be so far from the worst case scenarios?

    Just the flu bro.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,292 ✭✭✭ joseywhales


    We are also assuming that medical staff are expendable resources, when they are some of our most valuable people. They are not machines, I am sure that morale would seriously plummet along with standard of care if we let ripp and told them to deal with it, seeing their fellow human make the effort definitely has a positive psychological effect on them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,849 ✭✭✭ Grab All Association


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Ask Sweden?

    They could be right on some measures but completely wrong on others. Luckily for Sweden though they don’t have the diehard Trumptard types blocking A&E departments or protesting about haircuts. Swedes have the common sense to social distance, wear masks and practice good hand washing etiquette.

    What I always ask these types of people is, If Covid 19 is a hoax and communism in the back door as these Trumptards claim, then surely Donald Trump is one of the globalists along with Mr. Gates and Soros. Why is he going along with the lie?

    They then proceed to call you a paedophile or CPC agent.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,751 ✭✭✭ touts


    This all can be summed up in the misleading graphs that were shown to describe what flattening the curve meant. In one graph you had a huge spike way above the hospital capacity over a short amount of time. Then they flattened it and showed the graph coming down under the line and it was only a little bit longer. Maybe only twice as long. Not so bad. Lets do that.

    Except the volume in the second graph was significantly less than in the second graph. Why? Because they displayed it as taking only a little bit longer. In reality it needed to be shown as going from 2-3 months for the spike to 1-2 years flattened. But they knew that would scare the sh1t out of the population and cause uproar. People would accept restrictions for a couple of months. But a couple of years. Not a hope. So they shortened the timescale on the graph and "we'll cross that bridge when we'll come to it". Well we're at that bridge now.

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    So the question is was that lie worth it. How many would have died had we taken the Swedish approach and just let it happen. Probably thousands more. The health service barely got through as it was. Had the spike happened it would have collapsed completely. The death toll would have been enormous. Just remember the images from Bergamo and Whuan. Look at the images from Brazil. Would you have accepted those conditions if it meant your local pub could have reopened today. Would you have accepted the death toll so you wouldn't have to put on a mask on the Luas? Would you have accepted mass graves so you could get a ticket to your local GAA club's league match?


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Irish Steve


    If we'd done nothing here, the health service would have completely imploded, and the nursing home sector would have been even harder hit than it has been, the number of deaths would have been significantly higher because the hospitals would not have been able to spend the time with each patient that was needed to properly manage thier conditions.

    Even now, with the extra knowledge that has accumulated over the last months, the health service is finely balanced, and a big surge in cases still has the potential to cause overload, with all that implies.

    We can only hope that some of the changes in the health care system are seen through to completion, as things are now, there are still a lot of unresolved issues that could bring the whole house of cards down.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,292 ✭✭✭ joseywhales


    We are still waiting on that big first piece to be resolved , rapid and broad testing of the population. If we had 24 hour results and enough capacity, it could be as effective as a vaccine(assuming correctly not everyone would be willing to take). We would break the chains as soon as or before they form, in such a scenario zero cases is achievable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,287 ✭✭✭✭ mariaalice


    Fear would have stopped people going to work as it would have been everywhere, so accesses to food would have become scrappy shops would open hit and miss even garages, widespread hoarding of food, the civil defense, and the army would have had to be back up the Garda. The very vulnerable who could not leave their house in those situations would have food parcels thrown at their front door every now and then by the civil defense.

    Hospitals would have become a scary place so lots of unscheduled home berth and people who really need a hospital staying at home. Doctors and nurses in full PPE would be given Garda escorts to work and prioritised for fule along with anyone maintaining power and water.

    Mostly we would have been grand but it would be a very scary place until we got something sorted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,045 ✭✭✭✭ MrStuffins


    Maybe 1000-2000 more deaths in the country and overall things would be much better than they currently are.

    In other words "Thousands more would be dead, but in my imaginary scenario none of them are me or related to me so I would have been grand with that once I was able to have a pint without paying €9 for some chicken wings".

    Classic!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,287 ✭✭✭✭ mariaalice


    It would not be the thousands of more deaths alone that would be the issue, but the fear and irrational behavior generated by the thousands of more deaths which would have caused the real problems


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭ yosemitesam1


    MrStuffins wrote: »
    In other words "Thousands more would be dead, but in my imaginary scenario none of them are me or related to me so I would have been grand with that once I was able to have a pint without paying €9 for some chicken wings".

    Classic!
    In the long-term, between increases in deaths due to cancer, mental health etc the difference will be narrow between doing nothing and what we did do.
    Covid isn't the deadly killer we were told it was back in February and all perspective on the big picture has been lost in favour of trying to eliminate covid


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,351 ✭✭✭ schmoo2k


    Baseless nonsense.

    Go back and read the first post - its the whole point of this thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,201 ✭✭✭✭ bilston


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Ask Sweden?

    The thing is that while Sweden has done worse than most, it has still fared better than some European countries. No surprise in some like the UK, Spain and Italy for various reasons...however Belgium is a curious example. Sweden has fared much better than Belgium who had a stricter lockdown from a pretty early stage as well. Some of this might be down to luck, or there are ethnic and demographic factors at play.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,045 ✭✭✭✭ MrStuffins


    In the long-term, between increases in deaths due to cancer, mental health etc the difference will be narrow between doing nothing and what we did do.
    Covid isn't the deadly killer we were told it was back in February and all perspective on the big picture has been lost in favour of trying to eliminate covid

    Ah yeah, and sure all the people who die of Covid would have died anyway in the long term so it's grand.

    As long as you can do your shopping while not having to wear a mask, it's all worth it!


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