King George VI & QE Diamond Stakes 2020

tryfix

Paddy Power odds

Enable 8/13

Magical 7/2

Japan 7/2

Sovereign 14/1

AVD 14/1

Fanny Logan 16/1

Sir Dragonet 20/1

Magic Wand 33/1


The odds on favourite Enable is going for her 3rd straight win in the race. It's hard to see past her but those big prices are tasty on half the field and more.

Enable has Course and Distance form, so to does Japan and he ran an awful lot better against Enable in the Eclipse than the odds suggest.

Magical is a bit of a magical filly and she may be coming into her prime while Enable has peaked and is trying to hold her form. Magical is most likely to be heading to the Tattersall's Gold Cup on Sunday so she's out of consideration until we know her definite plans.

It would be very easy to get carried away with Sovereign's chances, but at 10/1 he's skimpy enough against a champion like Enable. AVD is a similar price with even less reason to believe that he can beat the top horses.

Fanny Logan was quite impressive the last day and is now up to an OR of 115. She's one to consider, she will most likely lie up with the pace set by Sovereign or Magic Wand and she'll keep on plugging on when others have cracked.

Sir Dragonet is awful, he's as capable of running a big race in a big race as he's likely to turn in a bad running lesser company. Couldn't have him but wish him well.

Magic Wand is such a big price that maybe she isn't running?


I'll have a bet on a steadily brought along Japan on the premise that a 6yo Enable isn't as good as her younger self. ( don't think he could live with her on really Soft ground )

tryfix

Superstar mare Enable will have to do it all on her own against a three-strong Ballydoyle attack if she is to make history in the Qipco King George VI & Queen Elizabeth at Ascot on Saturday after trainer John Gosden all but ruled out stablemate Fanny Logan.

Aidan O'Brien revealed last night that he is set to run Japan and last year's English and Irish Derby winners Anthony Van Dyck and Sovereign, with Magical - who had been a 4-1 shot for the King George - Magic Wand and Sir Dragonet waiting for Sunday's Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/enable-set-to-go-it-alone-for-gosden-at-ascot-as-fanny-logan-heads-to-goodwood/443322


That didn't last long and then there was 4.... a farce in the making?

The Tetrarch

The old mare has lost her last two races.
The ground will be faster than her ideal.
It will be no surprise to me if she is beaten.

tryfix

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The old mare has lost her last two races.
The ground will be faster than her ideal.
It will be no surprise to me if she is beaten.

Tactically she's blessed with the speed to keep tabs on Sovereign if he sets off in front. It's not guaranteed that he will make it but who else would? The one best suited to coming late off a crazy pace would be AVD.

longshotvalue

This this race could setup lovely for avd. Firm ground 12 furlongs is perfect. Hopefully he is a silly price on Saturday

11117

Japan for me. As said above he’s been steadily brought along and connections have kept the utmost faith in him.
I think Enable has plateaued although it would be great to see her win
AVD is one who could turn up but is the type of horse that is proving expensive to follow.
Its hard to know what to make of Sovereign, is he there to set the pace with an eye on long distance races later on and next year

Morgans

Wouldnt surprise me if Soverign is in as a dummy pacemaker. Leave Enable make her own pace and see if Japan can outspeed her.

Francie Barrett

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The old mare has lost her last two races.
The ground will be faster than her ideal.
It will be no surprise to me if she is beaten.

Agree, but hope I am wrong, if only for the appalling tactics that Aidan employed last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsRSm5uGjoM

Slattsy

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Agree, but hope I am wrong, if only for the appalling tactics that Aidan employed last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsRSm5uGjoM

What have I missed that was so appalling there FB?!

BagheeraBlue

Slattsy wrote: »

What have I missed that was so appalling there FB?!

Absolutely nada

Francie Barrett

Slattsy wrote: »

What have I missed that was so appalling there FB?!

Hunting Horn did her no favours whatsoever.

RivetingRoger

Could Sovereign do a Sovereign again? Will it be sacrificed to set the race up for Japan?
Could the Derby winner run its race and surprise us all? AVD form with Ghayyaith (sp) possibly the best form in the book

TheMilkyPirate

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Hunting Horn did her no favours whatsoever.

Appalling tactics? Please explain how they were appalling tactics.

longshotvalue

I’ll be going for both outsiders hopefully around 14/1 . Race should be run to suit either . Japan is probably overrated, marking them value

The Tetrarch

My bet is Anthony Van Dyck (again ), odds 14.4.

Anthony Van Dyck and Japan have raced twice in 2020, the others only once.
Japan and Enable ran 20 days ago, and it looked a hard race (fast by 1.02s).
Anthony Van Dyck raced 36 days ago, 5th on soft. He might benefit from the longer break.
I think it takes more racing to get older horses fit.
Rain is forecast tomorrow afternoon, and that does not suit my choice.

It is a strange race. Anthony Van Dyck previous 7 races were losses, Japan lost his last three, Sovereign his last race, and Enable two losses.
I doubt there has been a King George VI & Queen Elizabeth II where all the field had lost their previous race.

gazza1

And then there were 3.
AVD out now

tryfix

gazza1 wrote: »

And then there were 3.
AVD out now

Should be a classic so 🤯

CH3OH

1st:
£226,840.00
2nd:
£86,000.00
3rd:
£43,040.00
4th:
£21,440.00
5th:
£10,760.00

If I ran could I get the 4th: £21,440.00?

The Tetrarch

Learned about Anthony Van Dyck withdrawal at 10:00 this morning.
Rain forecast at 2 p.m.
Sovereign at 17s for me.
I hope he sets off in front and tests them. He won't beat them for speed.

BagheeraBlue

arbalet 2.25 14/1

madmoose

Whats the appox returns from this tricast with these odds? I know the odds for Sovereign might come in but just want to have an approx returns from that 1-2-3 below

Japan 5/2
Enable 1/2
Sovereign 14/1

BagheeraBlue

madmoose wrote: »

Whats the appox returns from this tricast with these odds? I know the odds for Sovereign might come in but just want to have an approx returns from that 1-2-3 below

Japan 5/2
Enable 1/2
Sovereign 14/1

you can't do a tricast with 3 runners

madmoose

BagheeraBlue wrote: »

you can't do a tricast with 3 runners

Sorry im getting mixed up, its a trifecta which it is allowing on 365 under the tote part. I picked the 1-2-3 and put the fiver on....

zpehtsfd

Anyone get some of that free money off the Betfair glitch? Settled bets already so let's see what happens. Won't mention the race here just in case someone rats me out.

Slattsy

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Anyone get some of that free money off the Betfair glitch? Settled bets already so let's see what happens. Won't mention the race here just in case someone rats me out.

What happened? They settled losers?

BagheeraBlue

Slattsy wrote: »

What happened? They settled losers?

your account will be put on a minus so it's only of use if your willing to give up using your bf account

zpehtsfd

Slattsy wrote: »

What happened? They settled losers?

Sportsbook In-play still taking bets after winner crossed the line. Odds of the winner same as when 1f out. Took a few just to see what would happen. No mention on any social media platforms except one guy wondering why "cashing out" not working quickly enough. He must have lumped on. :cool:

tryfix

Not a great day for the dodgy horses, Elarqam flopped at York, but he's a diamond in comparison to So Wonderful who managed to get beaten in a Gowran Park maiden. 3rd in the Moyglare as a 2yo, 3rd in the Irish Guineas, 4th in the Coronation Stakes and beaten twice in G3 company since. Not able to break her maiden today on her 13th start.

0 wins from 13 runs.

unplayable

Go on sovereign get out there ahead and stay

tryfix

Imperious, Moore happy to cede 2nd to Sovereign.

BagheeraBlue

Not much left in enables tank another arc is extremely unlikely

Rabbit Redux

Hard to get enthused about that. She's a very good mare but that was a pathetic turnout today. Let's hope there's more than 3 runners in the Arc........

CH3OH

BagheeraBlue wrote: »

Not much left in enables tank another arc is extremely unlikely

Frankie gave her 2 little slaps of the whip after glancing back at Japan struggling. Don't think he pressed too hard on the accelerator..

What was shocking was the number of people wearing masks under their nose

tryfix

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

Hard to get enthused about that. She's a very good mare but that was a pathetic turnout today. Let's hope there's more than 3 runners in the Arc........

Hard to assess the form, Japan was too poor today to use as a yardstick. So how good a race did Sovereign run to get that close to her?

She will surely head to York for a trot around in the Yorkshire Oaks and straight to the Arc from there. What is there to beat her on Soft Ground in an Arc?

tryfix

Would love to see her race in the Irish Champion Stakes but that won't happen.

UrbanFret

Japan is so overrated it's unreal.

Rabbit Redux

tryfix wrote: »

Hard to assess the form, Japan was too poor today to use as a yardstick. So how good a race did Sovereign run to get that close to her?

She will surely head to York for a trot around in the Yorkshire Oaks and straight to the Arc from there. What is there to beat her on Soft Ground in an Arc?

I think they should have a crack at the International Stakes at York, possibly taking on Ghaiyyath again - and this time Frankie can ride her more positively than his ride in the Eclipse. The Yorkshire Oaks is a nothing race. It's her final season and we desperately need something to look forward to.

tryfix

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

I think they should have a crack at the International Stakes at York, possibly taking on Ghaiyyath again - and this time Frankie can ride her more positively than his ride in the Eclipse. The Yorkshire Oaks is a nothing race. It's her final season and we desperately need something to look forward to.

Gosden wants a 3rd Arc, even though the owner sponsor's the Juddmonte International a battle there would leave a mark on her that they can't risk if they are to give winning the Holy Grail of a 3rd Arc win their best shot.

The Tetrarch

She will probably run in a low level race as a prep for the Arc. A fillies Group 3 would be ideal.

Rabbit Redux

tryfix wrote: »

Gosden wants a 3rd Arc, even though the owner sponsor's the Juddmonte International a battle there would leave a mark on her that they can't risk if they are to give winning the Holy Grail of a 3rd Arc win their best shot.

I'd have more appreciation of Enable dropping back to 10 furlongs in the York race and beating a horse like Ghaiyyath than seeing her winning a third Arc, but it's an opinion that probably wouldn't gain popular traction.

tryfix

The Tetrarch wrote: »

She will probably run in a low level race as a prep for the Arc. A fillies Group 3 would be ideal.

That all weather trial she beat Crystal Ocean in would be an ideal prep.

tryfix

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

I'd have more appreciation of Enable dropping back to 10 furlongs in the York race and beating a horse like Ghaiyyath than seeing her winning a third Arc, but it's an opinion that probably wouldn't gain popular traction.

I'd rate taking on O'Brien and beating his legions on home territory in the Irish Champion Stakes higher than winning a Juddmonte. However they'll never forget her if she wins 3 Arcs, that would literally be legendary.

Rabbit Redux

tryfix wrote: »

I'd rate taking on O'Brien and beating his legions on home territory in the Irish Champion Stakes higher than winning a Juddmonte. However they'll never forget her if she wins 3 Arcs, that would literally be legendary.

And that's exactly why John Gosden wouldn't even think of going to Leopardstown with her.

tryfix

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

And that's exactly why John Gosden wouldn't even think of going to Leopardstown with her.

True and based on Racing Post Ratings for Today's King George she's no shoo-in for the Arc

King George 2020

1 Enable 124 RPR

2 Sovereign 118 RPR beaten 5 1/2L

3 Japan. 111 RPR a further 11 L back beaten 11 1/2 L by the winner.


On RPR ratings this 124 is a 3 lb Improvement on her Eclipse run and 1 lb improvement on her Arc second.

Sovereign ran to his Irish Derby win.

That was Japan's worst rating since he finished an unfit 4th in the 2019 Dante. ( does anyone else think that O'Brien's stable isn't firing on all cylinders in the last week or so?)

https://www.racingpost.com/results/2/ascot/2020-07-25/761533