Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

yosemitesam1

Call me Al wrote: »

I think the words you're missing here are "may be" not will be.
The biorxiv paper you've shared isn't peer--reviewed, and the headline from BBC doesn't state as fact. Because it isnt proven yet..

And FWIW I do agree with the claim that there is a good chance there has been a greater level of exposure than 5%. Luke Oneill talks about t cells a lot, is working on them in TCD I think, and even he isn't claiming it as a scientific certainty when he's asked about this by Pat Kenny.

Wrt the claim you make re covid hospitalisation rate it isnt 1%.
And it's not a flu.

We won't be able to say anything with certainty for years to come but at this point has any data shown that antibody surveys overestimate the spread?
I don't think so but we have data that suggests that they underestimate the spread. I know in the academic world that that wouldn't be enough but we live in the real world.

4,900,000x5%=245,000
3,342÷245,000= 1.36% hospitalisation rate for numbers that are more likely to underestimate than overestimate the total spread.

boardise

Story just broke -new cluster unearthed at a John Paul building site in Camden St. No numbers yet.

Stheno

boardise wrote: »

Story just broke -new cluster unearthed at a John Paul building site in Camden St. No numbers yet.

Townsend St according to the IT

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dublin-construction-site-closes-after-workers-test-positive-for-coronavirus-1.4308678?mode=amp

bb1234567

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

We won't be able to say anything with certainty for years to come but at this point has any data shown that antibody surveys overestimate the spread?
I don't think so but we have data that suggests that they underestimate the spread. I know in the academic world that that wouldn't be enough but we live in the real world.

4,900,000x5%=245,000
3,342÷245,000= 1.36% hospitalisation rate for numbers that are more likely to underestimate than overestimate the total spread.

Well our antibody test are only in urban areas, of course that is one way in which spread will be overestimated, probably quite significantly. I don't know why it is not just a random countrywide testing, like as was performed in Spain and most other countries, it makes a lot more sense. If Spain had just done antibody testing in the capital and another large city it would falsely show that over 10% of Spanish have antibodies, when in reality it's around 5% as when communities in rural and coastal areas included infection there was shown to only be around 1-2%.

xvril

xabi wrote: »

You cant stand over either of those statements.

Why not? I was there and the staff in my hotel were wearing masks. Is it so hard to believe?

Drumpot

boardise wrote: »

Story just broke -new cluster unearthed at a John Paul building site in Camden St. No numbers yet.

Just read this and It reminded me of early days in March When there was rumours a hotel was in quarantine or parts of the city were being blocked off. Seems like it was years ago!

xabi

xvril wrote: »

Why not? I was there and the staff in my hotel were wearing masks? Is it so hard to believe?

How do you know that they wore them all day and how do you know they didn't complain

What Username Guidelines

bb1234567 wrote: »

Well our antibody test are only in urban areas, of course that is one way in which spread will be overestimated, probably quite significantly. I don't know why it is not just a random countrywide testing, like as was performed in Spain and most other countries, it makes a lot more sense. If Spain had just done antibody testing in the capital and another large city it would falsely show that over 10% of Spanish have antibodies, when in reality it's around 5% as when communities in rural and coastal areas included infection there was shown to only be around 1-2%.

I believe it was half Dublin/half Sligo, which were chosen I’d guess as high prevalence and low prevalence areas.

Spain’s were done country wide and reported as overall 5%, urban areas and rural areas broken down to around 12% and 1% respectively. Hopefully we’ll see a breakdown of the figures as well.

lawrencesummers

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Easy to wear a mask for 20/30 mins, different story for 8 hours.

I know which one I think is more important, and it ain’t the customer who typically goes from home to shop to home while the staff have a far far greater exposure to the carriers and spreaders of the virus.

lawrencesummers

schmoo2k wrote: »

= 82% of folks are wearing masks (assuming 90 customers and 10 staff).

I’m fairly sure the shop would be gone bust long ago if the number of customers equalled the number of staff, but well done on showcasing your keen mathematical ability.

xvril

xabi wrote: »

How do you know that they wore them all day and how do you know they didn't complain

Well as I sat by the pool I didn't see staff at the pool bar take them off even once and I sat there most of the day. In terms of complaining, I think it has been the rule in Greece for some time now so they are probably past that.

Now I didn't ask them were they happy about it so perhaps they might not be you're right.

caveat emptor

#predictable......


https://twitter.com/ExpatBelgium/status/1285129597449904129?s=20

schmoo2k

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I’m fairly sure the shop would be gone bust long ago if the number of customers equalled the number of staff, but well done on showcasing your keen mathematical ability.

Thanks!

hmmm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I can't believe, after 5 months, we're still having Flu versus Covid stat debates. It's like something you'd see on Facebook, not a forum where there's been some excellent information sharing

Yes, plus I think these discussions are missing the elephant in the room which is the number of people who appear to be suffering long-term impacts post the virus. Researchers are not sure whether this is some sort of post-viral syndrome which will go away over time, or whether this is a chronic illness with lifelong impacts.

Of the 99% who survive it, we don't know how many have long-term lung, kidney or heart impacts, how many will need long-term care (it appears to be a large number), and we don't know how many years it will take off their lifespan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utFi8leu8hY

caveat emptor

Ireland...

China

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1284586668520026118?s=20

boardise

Stheno wrote: »

Townsend St according to the IT

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dublin-construction-site-closes-after-workers-test-positive-for-coronavirus-1.4308678?mode=amp

Sorry -I musta misheard. My putative journalistic reputation shredded in one sentence.
I'm gutted and distraught..I need counselling and a dollop of free money from the sympathetic Irish taxpayer to help me through this terrible trauma.
It's a disgrace Joe.

FishOnABike

Insurance companies seem to want to have their cake and eat it?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/pricewatch-confusion-over-travel-insurance-in-time-of-coronavirus-1.4246533?mode=amp
Won't cover refunds if you decide not to travel
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/people-who-travel-abroad-warned-they-will-have-no-insurance-cover-1.4308664?mode=amp
but at the same time won't cover for illness of you do. It seems more and more as if they just want to collect money for providing no useful service at all.

US2

Matteo Bassetti said patients who could have previously succumbed to COVID-19 were recovering without breathing difficulties

- Bassetti said the virus was like a tiger in March and April but had downgraded to a wild cat in the recent weeks

- The professor said the virus was weakening by itself and a vaccine was no longer necessary to quell it

bb1234567

US2 wrote: »

Matteo Bassetti said patients who could have previously succumbed to COVID-19 were recovering without breathing difficulties

- Bassetti said the virus was like a tiger in March and April but had downgraded to a wild cat in the recent weeks

- The professor said the virus was weakening by itself and a vaccine was no longer necessary to quell it

This is impossible due to the suspended global migration patterns. A virus is not a hivemind.Each infection is a unique organism living growing and developing completely separate from that in any other human's body, if a mutation within one person weakens and then it spreads widely from that person to others in the locale,it could then be said then it a weakened overall strain has developed in certain georgaphic areas where it is spreading freely. But is absolutely outside the realms of possibility that it would simultanously weaken in several continents at the same time.

YellowBucket

FishOnABike wrote: »

Insurance companies seem to want to have their cake and eat it?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/pricewatch-confusion-over-travel-insurance-in-time-of-coronavirus-1.4246533?mode=amp
Won't cover refunds if you decide not to travel
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/people-who-travel-abroad-warned-they-will-have-no-insurance-cover-1.4308664?mode=amp
but at the same time won't cover for illness of you do. It seems more and more as if they just want to collect money for providing no useful service at all.

Nothing new there! Insurance companies are always trying to wriggle out of stuff.
T&Cs apply*

*Always read them!

FishOnABike

US2 wrote: »

Matteo Bassetti said patients who could have previously succumbed to COVID-19 were recovering without breathing difficulties

- Bassetti said the virus was like a tiger in March and April but had downgraded to a wild cat in the recent weeks

- The professor said the virus was weakening by itself and a vaccine was no longer necessary to quell it

Being a professor specialising in research of antibiotics and fungal infections qualifies him to speak with any authority on viral epidemiology exactly how?

I'd take the soundbites of some publicity seeking professor with a good pinch of salt until they are either backed by a solid research paper or endorsed by a recognised reputable organisation.

The problem with pandemics is everybody wants to be an expert and newspapers don't refuse ink.

YellowBucket

One outlying opinion, without any kind of reviewed evidence to back it up does not make it a fact. It's just a hypothesis / opinion / discussion and a lot of the time the newspapers and media do not get that.

You're constantly seeing things being taken out of context from non-peer reviewed early stage papers and even academics' blogs that are not intended to be stated as fact.

JoChervil

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I’m fairly sure the shop would be gone bust long ago if the number of customers equalled the number of staff, but well done on showcasing your keen mathematical ability.

While you showed very poor mathematical abilities. He assumed 9:1 customer: staff ratio.

90%x90 + 10%x10= 81 + 1 = 82

Pinch Flat

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dublin-construction-site-closes-after-workers-test-positive-for-coronavirus-1.4308678?mode=amp

thelad95

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dublin-construction-site-closes-after-workers-test-positive-for-coronavirus-1.4308678?mode=amp

Construction sites could become the new meat factory. Zero social distancing between workers (often not the most intelligent of people).

Londis near me, workers all in getting lunch every day on top of each other, then sit outside eating together. Understandable that if one gets it, it'll spread like wildfire.

lawrencesummers

JoChervil wrote: »

While you showed very poor mathematical abilities. He assumed 9:1 customer: staff ratio.

90%x90 + 10%x10= 81 + 1 = 82

It must be embarrassing to have gone to all that trouble and Still be wrong.

Johnny7136

bb1234567 wrote: »

So what has caused the massive increase in excess deaths in countless countries worldwide then hmm?
And before you predictably try to claim lockdowns caused it, why didn't lockdowns cause excess large excess in for example much of Scandinavia which has small covid outbreaks but similarly harsh extended lockdowns as France, Italy, Spain, UK which cumulatively reported hundreds of thousands of excess deaths above seasonal average?
The unfortunate answer is there is no other explanation other than that COVID has killed many people and the vast majorirty of those within the large number of excess deaths worldwide. COVD testing and death reporting can indeed be inaccurate, but excess deaths don't lie, and I am looking foward to hearing your theory on how the dishonest or incompetent governments of Europe and the world have manipulated excess deathd figures to trick us into thinking covid is a danger.

Some say you need to work out excess deaths over a full year, some people in homes were on oxygen and covid likely sped up their death that would have occurred later in the year anyway.
We now have a excess deaths in a minus, so has the UK.
We won't hear George Lee report that.

I think the world made a mistake locking down, no way would it happen again based on the figures we now know. Quarantine the sick not the healthy.
It's very hard for the world leaders to put their hands up and say we got it wrong. They could even be sued for closing businesses, loss of jobs

owlbethere

hmmm wrote: »

Yes, plus I think these discussions are missing the elephant in the room which is the number of people who appear to be suffering long-term impacts post the virus. Researchers are not sure whether this is some sort of post-viral syndrome which will go away over time, or whether this is a chronic illness with lifelong impacts.

Of the 99% who survive it, we don't know how many have long-term lung, kidney or heart impacts, how many will need long-term care (it appears to be a large number), and we don't know how many years it will take off their lifespan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utFi8leu8hY

This is the thing that scares me the most. How do you live your life if you become incapacitated?

I'm reading the Facebook groups. People suffering for 3/4/5 months.

A quote from the Simpsons from a few years ago - 'the Irish became hard working and sober' - something like that. Many of us don't have time for a cold. Never mind a virus that can potentially drag us down for a few months.

Dave0301

Johnny7136 wrote: »

I think the world made a mistake locking down, no way would it happen again based on the figures we now know. Quarantine the sick not the healthy.
It's very hard for the world leaders to put their hands up and say we got it wrong. They could even be sued for closing businesses, loss of jobs

Surely lockdown is the reason we have the excess death figures we have, and not something much higher?

Lockdown was to ensure that unprepared health systems were not overwhelmed, not to eradicate the virus.

Although the IFR of 0.65% is much greater than the flu, it was the fact that healthcare systems couldn't sustain a prolonged response to Covid-19.

Now that the virus is not circulating so easily undetected, and countries have systems in place to track it, better hospital treatments and a greater public awareness things begin to open up again.

charlie14

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I dunno.in NZ random bar, karaoke, a man sang 'sitting at the dock of the bay' and my god he made me hear it anew.

Sometimes its amazing.

I suppose it is possible to find a turd that when polished becomes a gold nugget, but for me the amount of **** you would have to go through just would not be worth it.