Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

plodder

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Yes, covid has most definitely spread much further than they suggest. T cell response or antibodies present only in mucous represent a large amount of the total infected.

Or maybe if some people are predisposed to be asymptomatic then they don't need to produce antibodies because they aren't badly affected in the first place..?

I remember reading that the people who have the most severe symptoms tend to have the highest level of anti-bodies, which is what you'd expect. They are the ones who need to develop immunity the most.

Johnny7136

Johnny7136 wrote: »

I'm a massive sceptic of all this. I've just read a little here and people are quoting numbers and death rates from other countries, how can any of the numbers be believed, people are dying with covid, not of covid.
I've read lots now for months on Twitter etc

My take on Florida / Texas.. There are testing huge amount of people that aren't sick. People are been tested up to 4 times hoping for a nagative result to be allowed back to work.

I can't get over how gullable we all seem, out health service has never been run to a high standard, money wasted / bad decisions etc Yet now we trust everything they say.

George Lee on Rte is an expert on science and scaremongering now. He was always an economics man, crazy to listen to a word of that.

We didn't open the pubs this week because an estimated R number is too high. I don't believe that number can be produced with accuracy without testing the whole population. Iceland may have near the correct figure.

How accurate is the testing, god knows, I read today something like 170 brands of test kits have been recalled.

We're now all told to wear masks without any set standard of mask. Fair enough no inconvenience to majority of us wearing a mask for short periods, wearing a mask for 8 hours a day in work, no thanks.

Were told weeks ago dubs not welcome in Wexford etc now we've moved onto Americans, their the new enemy. People should be treated the same from anywhere, social distancing rules the same, if that even works, one meter / two metres, who knows.

We maybe have a bad flu. Likely top 10 worst flus in past 25 years.
The response to this is out of control, I was scared at first when we didn't know anything, the numbers just aren't there... But because we did so well blah blah blah.
I don't think so, people caught the flu at the same rate they would have caught any year.
People die, that's life. So many people die of pneumonia cold and flu every year, we don't shut the country

I read this in the style of a Hunter S Thomson novel in a effort to find meaning, but it still evades me

TomSweeney

Boggles wrote: »

This weekend, I went out for lunch, did a bit of furniture shopping and headed to the beach.

IF anything I over indulged.

I did similar, but it's coming, the 2nd lockdown - better believe it ..

What Username Guidelines

Santy2015 wrote: »

It’s 12 people including ICU in hospital. They’re not a separate number.

Definitely? I’ve been trying to figure that out but the numbers didn’t seem to match for me. Be great if it was one number.

harr

Only dipping in and and out of this thread and still can’t believe in the middle of July, 5 months into this crisis in Ireland people are still comparing it to a regular flu .

stephenjmcd

Santy2015 wrote: »

It’s 12 people including ICU in hospital. They’re not a separate number.

Fairly sure they're separate.
Vincents for example reporting a paitent in ICU with covid and not in the other figures.

Its been confusing the last few days as the wording even in press conferences seems to have changed but just based on that reporting I'd be pretty confident they're seperate

ShineOn7

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Yes. I think you need them outside also and in your own home.

Masks are mandatory outside from today?

stephenjmcd

john why wrote: »

Are masks mandatory from today?

Nope not yet

ShyMets

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Masks are mandatory outside from today?

No, masks have not been made mandatory outdoors.

Boggles

harr wrote: »

Only dipping in and and out of this thread and still can’t believe in the middle of July, 5 months into this crisis in Ireland people are still comparing it to a regular flu .

And car accidents.

lawrencesummers

90% of staff in the big shop I’m in aren’t wearing masks.
90% of customers are.

caveat emptor

harr wrote: »

Only dipping in and and out of this thread and still can’t believe in the middle of July, 5 months into this crisis in Ireland people are still comparing it to a regular flu .

It's amazing what can happen when your bank balance isn't where you though it would be and your. existence is dependent on "bums in seats"

screwed finances leads to screwed logic.

yosemitesam1

harr wrote: »

Only dipping in and and out of this thread and still can’t believe in the middle of July, 5 months into this crisis in Ireland people are still comparing it to a regular flu .

If you compare flu Vs covid on hospitalisation rates they are both very similar at circa 1%.
Allowing for the fact that the 1,700 deaths figure is higher than actual deaths CAUSED by covid and the fact that the antibody testing results just released underestimate the spread of the virus due to ignoring mucosal antibodies and t cells.
We are looking at an IFR of maybe two to three times that of a standard flu.
Covid could be very realistically compared to a bad flu strain and if a more detailed antibody/t cell survey was carried out, that may show it has spread substantially further already.

Plumbthedepths

lawrencesummers wrote: »

90% of staff in the big shop I’m in aren’t wearing masks.
90% of customers are.

Easy to wear a mask for 20/30 mins, different story for 8 hours.

xvril

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Easy to wear a mask for 20/30 mins, different story for 8 hours.

In Greece the staff in my hotel wore them all day in 32 degree heat and didn't complain.

Plumbthedepths

xvril wrote: »

In Greece the staff in my hotel wore them all day in 32 degree heat and didn't complain.

And?

xabi

xvril wrote: »

In Greece the staff in my hotel wore them all day in 32 degree heat and didn't complain.

You cant stand over either of those statements.

What Username Guidelines

harr wrote: »

Only dipping in and and out of this thread and still can’t believe in the middle of July, 5 months into this crisis in Ireland people are still comparing it to a regular flu .

It's clearly far more serious than a regular flu, but I do think there is some merit in comparisons with how it behaves in the general population but not necessarily it's health impact on an individual.

We were originally told 100% of people were susceptible and if everyone in Ireland got it, we could see 85,000 deaths. The comparisons with flu or other previous pandemics can be useful, as we can see Sweden are trending down with a more liberal approach, and they're not seeing massive levels of mortality when compared to the original projections. I'm by no means saying Sweden's approach is correct, but rather an interesting dataset to compare to, especially when you see their excess deaths are still lower than previous bad flu seasons.

When we see new flu strains or pandemics, there are more susceptible than usual seasons, but it's unlikely that it continues until everyone is infected.

Looking at South Africa and Australia (southern temperate regions) they had relatively small spikes in March and April that then died down, but are now seeing a resurgence. Their flu season starts around now, and it could be posited that March/April were imported cases that didn't take hold locally due to seasonality, but are now seeing a natural increase. Consider if each country tested as much for flu as they did Covid, you'd certainly find cases of flu all year round as it never goes away, but from a population level, you'll see peaks/troughs at somewhat expected times. Similar seasonality comparisons can be made in many countries, or looking from north to south in the US, albeit seasonally it's offset from usual months.

Having said all that, there are outliers that can disprove this - Israel, Iran, etc, and as frustrating as it may be, it's all a waiting game to embiggen the datasets everywhere.

Call me Al

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

If you compare flu Vs covid on hospitalisation rates they are both very similar at circa 1%.
Allowing for the fact that the 1,700 deaths figure is higher than actual deaths CAUSED by covid and the fact that the antibody testing results just released underestimate the spread of the virus due to ignoring mucosal antibodies and t cells.
We are looking at an IFR of maybe two to three times that of a standard flu.
Covid could be very realistically compared to a bad flu strain and if a more detailed antibody/t cell survey was carried out, that may show it has spread substantially further already.

The covid hospitalisation rate is much higher than 1%.
Eta do you have data re any of the rest if your assertions?

caveat emptor

xvril wrote: »

In Greece the staff in my hotel wore them all day in 32 degree heat and didn't complain.

People need to man up.

Masks are going to people's best friend this winter.

AlmightyCushion

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

If you compare flu Vs covid on hospitalisation rates they are both very similar at circa 1%.
Allowing for the fact that the 1,700 deaths figure is higher than actual deaths CAUSED by covid and the fact that the antibody testing results just released underestimate the spread of the virus due to ignoring mucosal antibodies and t cells.
We are looking at an IFR of maybe two to three times that of a standard flu.
Covid could be very realistically compared to a bad flu strain and if a more detailed antibody/t cell survey was carried out, that may show it has spread substantially further already.

How many flu strains have killed over 1,000 people between March and July when the country has spend most of that time locked down? It is not comparable to a bad flu strain.

caveat emptor

xabi wrote: »

You cant stand over either of those statements.

It's an Internet forum.

Nobody can stand over anything. People on here have 2 wives, 3 girlfriends, 4 horses and none of them tested positive.

Conspiracy? definitely.

Call me Al

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

How many flu strains have killed over 1,000 people between March and July when the country has spend most of that time locked down? It is not comparable to a bad flu strain.

I don't know of a flu hitting Ireland recently that has killed 13% of those 65-74 who have caught it, eta... as has happened in ireland with Covid.

SeaBreezes

Onesea wrote: »

Two months? The 1700 figure is over 4 or 5 months no?

I see the trains are packed to capacity no masks etc.. Seen planet of images of the gal way Dublin train.
Irish government introducing laws and rules they cannot police.

Nope. 2 months.

Boggles

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

How many flu strains have killed over 1,000 people between March and July when the country has spend most of that time locked down? It is not comparable to a bad flu strain.

Miami-Dade with a population of nearly 3 million is running at nearly 120% ICU capacity.

When was the last time the flu did that in July in Florida?

It's not a flu.

bb1234567

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

If you compare flu Vs covid on hospitalisation rates they are both very similar at circa 1%.
Allowing for the fact that the 1,700 deaths figure is higher than actual deaths CAUSED by covid and the fact that the antibody testing results just released underestimate the spread of the virus due to ignoring mucosal antibodies and t cells.
We are looking at an IFR of maybe two to three times that of a standard flu.
Covid could be very realistically compared to a bad flu strain and if a more detailed antibody/t cell survey was carried out, that may show it has spread substantially further already.

You have simply made up a lot of bull**** here. IFR is believed to be 0.65%, this is the official estimate released by WHO a few days ago . It is a consensus agreed upon by 1300 international scientists after examining hundreds of studies . But yeh I'm sure you're right and the thousands of scientists have it all wrong here. I'm sure all these highly educated people have completely neglected to consider that some countries may over count deaths and that antibody testing may not be totally accurate, absolutely may have gone completely over their heads so it's a good thing we have you around to keep us informed.

So yeh, it can be said with almost total confidence that you are completely wrong . Comparisons to flu are just distracting and tired subject matter in the thread at this stage when there is almost a definitive figure agreed upon globally that places it at 6.5x more dangerous than a flu, it is no longer a debate of any validity whatsoever. So please stop !

schmoo2k

lawrencesummers wrote: »

90% of staff in the big shop I’m in aren’t wearing masks.
90% of customers are.

= 82% of folks are wearing masks (assuming 90 customers and 10 staff).

yosemitesam1

Call me Al wrote: »

The covid hospitalisation rate is much higher than 1%.
Eta do you have data re any of the rest if your assertions?

The antibody survey is giving an estimate of just under 5% of the population being infected. This is underestimating the total infections quite considerably as a large proportion of infections only generate a t cell or mucosal antibody response.

ShineOn7

xabi wrote: »

You cant stand over either of those statements.

Why can't they?

I rode Scarlett Johansson last night

Prove me wrong

is_that_so

bb1234567 wrote: »

You have simply made up a lot of bull**** here. IFR is believed to be 0.65%, this is the official estimate released by WHO a few days ago . It is a consensus agreed upon by 1300 international scientists after examining hundreds of studies . But yeh I'm sure you're right and the thousands of scientists have it all wrong here.

Squabbling over the IFR encourages people to overlook this bigger issue. When health systems melt down it will be higher with all the other attendant problems for the system itself and wider society.