Italy & Covid-19

bb1234567

Thierry12 wrote: »

What if re-infections caused most of the deaths?

ADE?

2nd infection worse than 1st infection

Could have been around in September, harmless to most and re-infections did the damage 6 months on

Asymptomatic become sympytomatic 2nd time

Like dengue virus and many others

We have no clue how this virus works, learning everyday

People would already have antibodies though in that case?

Thierry12

bb1234567 wrote: »

People would already have antibodies though in that case?

They disappear quickly for some and no proof all asymptomatic even make them at all

lainey_d_123

joseywhales wrote: »

Yeah I had the dose in December when I came back for the holidays. Wife and I both got the worst flu of our lives, a week in bed, just fever and insatiable dry cough.

But really who has a clue what strain anyone had. I think there is something strange about this virus though, the extreme cases seem to be caused often by a large initial viral load. So where you have a highly dense cluster, people who get exposed there seems to have a worse outcome. I'd like to see data on that.

Perhaps it is a normal coronavirus except there is some viral load threshold when our immune system's don't have time to adapt. Severity to viral load might not be linear, more of a step function maybe?

I thought it had been proven now that higher viral loads generally lead to much worse illness? that would explain how NHS staff were particularly susceptible to serious illness, and sadly death in some cases.

The fellas in my office who had it all had a terrible dose and have been sick for months. They would have been sitting right next to each other for hours every day. I can see how that might result in a worse infection than someone who picked it up at the supermarket from walking through an aisle someone had just coughed in.

Thats me

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I thought it had been proven now that higher viral loads generally lead to much worse illness?

Doubt it was ever proven by any investigation, just observations telling this seem to be the case.

Glenbhoy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I've had the flu twice in my life. Both times was laid out flat for a week, to the extent I could barely lift my arm off the bed. High temps, sweating. One thing I didn't have was any sort of cough.

My daughter at the end of January had what I thought was flu. However one symptom didn't fit - severe chronic coughing and difficulty catching her breath. She was in the house with us the whole time and none of us got sick, only her. I mean who knows. Maybe it was a weird flu.

https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Maybe you had it a few more times, seems like our friend covid ain't the only one to play the 'assymptomatic trick'

joseywhales

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I thought it had been proven now that higher viral loads generally lead to much worse illness? that would explain how NHS staff were particularly susceptible to serious illness, and sadly death in some cases.

The fellas in my office who had it all had a terrible dose and have been sick for months. They would have been sitting right next to each other for hours every day. I can see how that might result in a worse infection than someone who picked it up at the supermarket from walking through an aisle someone had just coughed in.

If it is true it puts to bed the notion of it being less fatal now, we may not see its potential fatality until we are in a high concentration cluster(so density rather than just volume), then death might grow exponentially once we break a threshold. I am just highlighting that the behavior might not be simple and linear. But we often make assumptions about something we still dont have a good understanding of.

Wibbs

Glenbhoy wrote: »

https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Maybe you had it a few more times, seems like our friend covid ain't the only one to play the 'assymptomatic trick'

70% seems very high. From a collection of research into it I've read 20% of people who have been exposed to influenza are asymptomatic. I'm one of them. My dad was the same and likely where I inherited it. My mum on the other hand was felled by flu a few times in her life. Though I've never come down with the symptoms(or passed any off as a "headcold") I know I've given it to others.

The thing about covid is there are a lot of eyes on it, so no doubt other milder viruses that pass through the population also act oddly, but we never really bothered researching them to the same degree.

political analyst

The theory that the virus had already reached Europe in December is credible. After all, Varadkar said the virus must have reached Ireland at that time because of the emergence of cases in France, which has busy flight connections to both Ireland and China.

drunkmonkey

Antibodies specific to the coronavirus were found in blood samples from lung cancer screening tests going back to September last year in Italy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3110088/covid-19-virus-hunters-pick-another-piece-trail-italy

Thierry12

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Antibodies specific to the coronavirus were found in blood samples from lung cancer screening tests going back to September last year in Italy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3110088/covid-19-virus-hunteirs-pick-another-piece-trail-italy

Fantastic link drunkmoneky

That proves without doubt its been around a long time and that flu like illness you we had at Christmas might have been Covid

Peer reviewed study, top scientists from Milan, everything checked

What more do people need as proof?

Thats me

Thierry12 wrote: »

What more do people need as proof?

I close to believe in that since i myself got something like covid in Italy in October.

But... They have tested antibodies on Sars-CoV-2 and found they are killing it. So they decided it was produced for this coronavirus. But could not same antibody kill few different coronaviruses? I simply have no idea was that enough proof or not.

Thierry12

Thats me wrote: »

I close to believe in that since i myself got something like covid in Italy in October.

But... They have tested antibodies on Sars-CoV-2 and found they are killing it. So they decided it was produced for this coronavirus. But could not same antibody kill few different coronaviruses? I simply have no idea was that enough proof or not.

Occam's razor would say you had it

So many people that never get sick, got sick last winter and none of them have been sick since

What's the simplest and most obvious explanation for that?

They got sick from a novel illness

Away With The Fairies

Thierry12 wrote: »

Occam's razor would say you had it

So many people that never get sick, got sick last winter and none of them have been sick since

What's the simplest and most obvious explanation for that?

They got sick from a novel illness

What I'd like to know is does anyone know of young healthy people with odd lingering symptoms or had strokes or anything like that last year?

Away With The Fairies

Thierry12 wrote: »

Occam's razor would say you had it

So many people that never get sick, got sick last winter and none of them have been sick since

What's the simplest and most obvious explanation for that?

They got sick from a novel illness

I'd love to think the cold I had last year would have been it. And not know about it. But then people are still getting sick, so it hasn't reached everyone.

odyssey06

Thierry12 wrote: »

Occam's razor would say you had it
So many people that never get sick, got sick last winter and none of them have been sick since
What's the simplest and most obvious explanation for that?
They got sick from a novel illness

What is strange about the virus that hit last winter was that it seemed to hit middle aged people hard.
I had colleagues in work out floored by it, fit guys 30-50.
Yet older generation relatives it didn't hit any harder than normal.

My theory is that what hit last last winter wasn't a novel virus but it was novel to that generation- but it or something similar had hit older generation before. So not covid.

Thats me

Thierry12 wrote: »

Occam's razor would say you had it

So many people that never get sick, got sick last winter and none of them have been sick since

What's the simplest and most obvious explanation for that?

They got sick from a novel illness

The simplest explanation was that was a flu. Years ago i got a flu (?) from some farmer who i picked on the road, and it was comparably heavy.

Though, in the case with "Italian flu". My wife developed symptoms immediately after we got this, but recovered soon. But she is not getting sick with flu. Myself I felt i'm infected, but there was no temperature, nothing. I had quite long symptom-less phase of one or even two weeks, do not remember, this ended only after scheduled flu vaccination - it probably have triggered immune system which started fighting the virus. But i had no shortening of breath or dropped oxygen levels or other effects of second phase - so unlikely it was this coronavirus, could be different one.

ElJeffe

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Antibodies specific to the coronavirus were found in blood samples from lung cancer screening tests going back to September last year in Italy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3110088/covid-19-virus-hunters-pick-another-piece-trail-italy

Why isn't this being covered in the media to the extent it should be? This is incredible news if true.

[Deleted User]

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What I'd like to know is does anyone know of young healthy people with odd lingering symptoms or had strokes or anything like that last year?

All lads in work got this cold/flu/whatever last xmas



One lad was at a house party session over the summer (hes only like 21 or 22,so whatever) which had an outbreak,everyone there got it,except him.


All very antedocal,and limited evidence to be taken with a large portion of skeptism/wary as unscientific i know

Beanybabog

My OH and parents got the terrible dose at Christmas- temperatures, cough, fatigue. We were wondering all along could it have been covid but my OH just tested positive for Covid recently. I also know someone else who was very sick for weeks in March/ April and couldn’t get tested. We believed all along they had covid- to the extent this person had to see a doctor for long covid issues- and that person has now tested positive for Covid in this wave too. So either they got a false positive now, or the dose in March was not Covid, or they got it twice.
In both cases, the individuals were much sicker with their original dose of flu or whatever it was, than they were when they actually tested positive for Covid.

Irish Stones

glasso wrote: »

Detected in wastewater. No wonder they got it bad. It was circulating / spreading there for months, hitting the Lombardy region particularly hard.

Haven't read the whole thread, so I don't know if this has been said before, but the update is that the virus was in Italy way before December, the first cases were in September, that means it was probably around a couple of months earlier.
So it seems that Italians let this virus go around the continent uncontrolled.

This might support the fact that someone I know, January/February this year, told me about a few Chinese people that were aware of "something weird" in Summer 2019. A few of them moved to different parts of the world in the attempt to escape the infection.

Glenbhoy

ElJeffe wrote: »

Why isn't this being covered in the media to the extent it should be? This is incredible news if true.

It got a lot of coverage last week, I was interested in a critique by someone who understands what they're telling us in terms of alternative explanations etc.
Does this suggest the virus originated in italy and was first picked up in wuhan? Brought back by the extensive traffic between northern italy and wuhan?

political analyst

Although the match that the Italian rugby team was supposed to play in Dublin early last year was postponed, many of its fans who had planned to go to the match still went to Ireland because they had already booked flights and accommodation.

Given that the impact of the pandemic on Italy was obvious at that stage, why didn't the Italian authorities ban all Italian citizens from travelling out of Italy?

CIARAN_BOYLE

I think very countries will restrict their citizens leaving.

In my opinion its on our government. Why didn't we ban Italians arriving?

Umpalumpa

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I think very countries will restrict their citizens leaving.

In my opinion its on our government. Why didn't we ban Italians arriving?

I thin our government said at the time that there was very little risk the virus coming here

1874

Umpalumpa wrote: »

I thin our government said at the time that there was very little risk the virus coming here

They based this on what? a dog on the street could see based on how things were in Italy that it was not in our interest to allow those people to turn up, they may as well have just let the match go ahead. In the absence of being able to quarantine anyone that chose to still arrive here despite the match not going ahead, we should have just denied entry.

Mullaghteelin

Don't forget about the campaign in Florence encouraging people to hug Chinese tourists.

https://rmx.news/article/article/fears-of-being-called-racist-harmed-italy-s-coronavirus-response-says-leading-italian-virologist

. Fears of being called 'racist' harmed Italy's coronavirus response, says leading Italian virologist
Italy's first two confirmed cases of coronavirus were Chinese tourists from Wuhan

thebaz

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

In my opinion its on our government. Why didn't we ban Italians arriving?

I remember posting here at the time Why we allowed the flights in -

Same as our now slow response to Vaccination , I have no doubt it is down to EU bureaucracy, but officials cant say so. The EU is good for many things, but for dynamic crisis decision making it is way too sluggish.

TheValeyard

To be fair at the time we were still trying to understand this virus. It was all very new, lots of information, misinformation and we couldn't be sure what was really going on in China.

Beasty

Threads merged

thebaz

TheValeyard wrote: »

To be fair at the time we were still trying to understand this virus. It was all very new, lots of information, misinformation and we couldn't be sure what was really going on in China.

Most people were aware of what was going on , we had the images from Wuhan, and much of North Italy was in lockdown , North Italy is rugby country, why bother calling off match ? The real risk was from the many thousand fans arriving rather than the 40 man Italian rugby squad who were playing.