Another General election is inevitable when all of this over...

theballz

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

PhilOssophy

No it isn't. FG and FF and a few independents will just get on with it, the people spoke in February this year and won't thank them for thinking another election was needed. What good will a fresh election do? Spend 150m when we won't have 2c to rub together?

The whole world is in the same boat.

Social unrest? To be honest, I think the vast majority of people are showing serious co-operation with these measures. Considering how much people's lives have been altered, I think the vast majority of people have been exemplary.

Yurt2

theballz wrote: »

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

piplip87

I think FF/FG/ and others will just get on with it for two or three year tbh.

I think they will steady the ship and possibly try to tackle the housing crisis. This will sort out the mess that it has become plus get people back to work on the sites.

As for the next election it will depend on how SF behave in the next Dail. They still have a fair amount of support with the swing voters but the will not put up with constant winging if SF do vote against everything

Harry Palmr

If a government is formed there will be no pressure to hold an election for a few years precisely because the circumstances are as they are. It'll be a national government by default in the end I suspect.

kippy

The housing crisis is as well as solved if you are to look at what is happening in the housing market and the likely significant impact on tourism for the next few years.
Bigger issues lay ahead but I don't see what another election is going to do.

PhilOssophy

Yurt! wrote: »

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

Funnily, I don't think anyone in any political circle would call those who are laid off spongers.

I also fear, by the time this is all over we'll be heading for another bailout. Along with other EU states. The hole in the public finances could even dwarf the bank bailout.

Edgware

theballz wrote: »

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

This is the left wingers (and alleged left wingers) dream scenario. However the next election will be four years away. The senior hurlers are in for the long haul. We have worked through recessions before and we will work through this one. People will still spend money but wont be spending it in Spain etc. A lot of the small services willget back, hairdressers, coffeeshops, taxis, takeaways. S.F. PBP will of course want to wallow in misery as that is whenthey are happiest

theballz

theballz wrote: »

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

Why? The people have spoken.

LeinsterDub

Will a FF /FG tie up even happen?

There is a lot of disquiet from the grassroots https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1249276156546813952

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

FF and FG have been in government togethee with lasr 5 years??

I dont see,why it wont last another 5??

,once they bribe the indos enough (cant complain about parish-pump politics anymore though)

LeinsterDub

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why? The people have spoken.

And when the spoke they mumbled. No harm asking them to repeat themselves

theballz

theballz wrote: »

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

Nobody knows outcome of all this so that is nonsence.

Where is the social unreset already happning?

major interest

theballz wrote: »

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

Assuming a government is formed out of the current talks (not a certainty) then I really don’t see another election for another 4 years at least. If anything, the pandemic makes further elections in the near future less likely. Given the sudden uncertainty that has been brought about in the economy/society, some form of political stability will be sought.

mariaalice

mariaalice wrote: »

Nobody know outcome of all this so that is nonsence.

Where is the social unreset already happning?

Social unrest and talks of it in italy,were a british propaganda effort,(by bbc and sky news) to distract from when the brits were being slated for not going into lockdown.....

It was quietly dropped,when they did

Jinglejangle69

Yurt! wrote: »

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

Zzzzzzzzzz

theballz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why? The people have spoken.

True. However, don’t you think the landscape has changed drastically since then?

My feeling is, the people who voted for Sinn Fein may be reconsidering given the current state of the economy.

Could Sinn Fein lead us out of a recession? Is the house crisis still our biggest issue. The answer is No.

Richard Hillman

The dynamics have changed since February. We were voting on somebody to solve the housing crisis and got an inconclusive result.

If we got back to the polls we are voting on dragging the economy out of a black hole. Judging by recent polls, we're going to get a very different result.

Things have changed since February, FF poll scores have fallen off a cliff and tbh i don't think Michael Martin is fit to lead the country. He's too weak and would have rings run around him in Europe. We need strong leadership, whether it be Varadkar, Mcdonald or somebody else from FF. It just can't be Martin.

Yurt2

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Zzzzzzzzzz

That type of sentiment I highlighted in the post is you all day long and you know it.

Eric Cartman

it won't, thankfully, SF can wipe the sweat from their brow knowing they will yet again be able to harp from the opposition benches without having any responsibility for running a country.

Edgware

mariaalice wrote: »

Nobody knows outcome of all this so that is nonsence.

Where is the social unreset already happning?

Correct. Arguing over toilet rolls doesnt equal social unrest

stayback

This government is going to require 90 seats/votes to have a comfortable majority. There will be a few rebels aka john Mcguinness , dev og (Eamon o curio) etc. There will be rebels in both FF/FG. So having the bare 80 won’t be enough. Hard decision and very unpopular decisions will have to be made in the coming years.

I can’t see anything but another election on the horizons when the current crisis is over.

FF got punished in the last election when they facilitated a C&S. imagine what will happen if they go into government FG.

MM will probably split FF if he goes into power with FG. A split they will never come back from. Some in FG aren’t going to be happen to be going back into government.

antimatterx

stayback wrote: »

This government is going to require 90 seats/votes to have a comfortable majority. There will be a few rebels aka john Mcguinness , dev og (Eamon o curio) etc. There will be rebels in both FF/FG. So having the bare 80 won’t be enough. Hard decision and very unpopular decisions will have to be made in the coming years.

I can’t see anything but another election on the horizons when the current crisis is over.

FF got punished in the last election when they facilitated a C&S. imagine what will happen if they go into government FG.

MM will probably split FF if he goes into power with FG. A split they will never come back from. Some in FG aren’t going to be happen to be going back into government.

I'm an FG member. Being honest, most of us would relish another craic at the election. We would wipe the floor with SF/FF this time.

Realistically, we don't care if we're in power or not this time around. FF are going to **** their chance up, and we'll back in power without their help next time around.

Jinglejangle69

Yurt! wrote: »

That type of sentiment I highlighted in the post is you all day long and you know it.

Yeah and?

I've never called people genuinely on the dole through no fault of their own scroungers.

Jusy the self entitled Margaret Cash's of the world and there is many of them in this country.

And you know that.

Jinglejangle69

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm an FG member. Being honest, most of us would relish another craic at the election. We would wipe the floor with SF/FF this time.

Realistically, we don't care if we're in power or not this time around. FF are going to **** their chance up, and we'll back in power without their help next time around.

Don't think FG would wipe the floor.

stayback

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm an FG member. Being honest, most of us would relish another craic at the election. We would wipe the floor with SF/FF this time.

Realistically, we don't care if we're in power or not this time around. FF are going to **** their chance up, and we'll back in power without their help next time around.

Can’t disagree with you there.. at the moment FG are playing a blinder. I think ye will pick up a few extra seats. As soon as this crisis is over I really think we need an election because we are going to need political stability over the next few years.

antimatterx

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Don't think FG would wipe the floor.

We wouldn't get a majority, but we'd comfortably have more seats than FF/SF individually.

antimatterx

stayback wrote: »

Can’t disagree with you there.. at the moment FG are playing a blinder. I think ye will pick up a few extra seats. As soon as this crisis is over I really think we need an election because we are going to need political stability over the next few years.

I would love one, but I don't think it will happen.

willowthewisp

If there was a general election tomorrow (I know it’s not possible in these circumstances) FG would more than likely win hands down, or at least eradicate the SF gains. We haven’t and won’t hear a word from Mary Lou and her band of nobodies until this is all over.
When it is they will throw about accusations about how they could have done a much better job than those who actually stood up to be counted when it mattered.

LuasSimon

Should FF and FG just merge into a new super party to keep out socialists , nationalists , poor people etc out.

A sort of Tory Conservative Irish party model.

stayback

LuasSimon wrote: »

Should FF and FG just merge into a new super party to keep out socialists , nationalists , poor people etc out.

A sort of Tory Conservative Irish party model.

No way!!!!

antimatterx

LuasSimon wrote: »

Should FF and FG just merge into a new super party to keep out socialists , nationalists , poor people etc out.

A sort of Tory Conservative Irish party model.

Nope. We don't want to FF near our party. It's bad enough we have to work with them. They have 0 talented politicians. I used to think Stephen Donnelly was good, but his performances over the last few months leave a lot to be desired.

antimatterx

antimatterx wrote: »

Nope. We don't want to FF near our party. It's bad enough we have to work with them. They have 0 talented politicians. I used to think Stephen Donnelly was good, but his performances over the last few months leave a lot to be desired.

But what is a major political,social issue or general ethos that is difference between em,that would prevent a merger???


Like yous are junior party in the new coalition,quite how a party who preceive emselves as better than everyone else ended up in such a position, deosnt seem an endorsement from.the electorate of your opion??

Yurt2

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Yeah and?

I've never called people genuinely on the dole through no fault of their own scroungers.

Jusy the self entitled Margaret Cash's of the world and there is many of them in this country.

And you know that.

Margaret Cash, Venezuela, Margret Cash, Venezuela, Margret Cash, Venezuela.

Congratulations, you may now collect your next FG Cubscout badge.

Yurt2

antimatterx wrote: »

Nope. We don't want to FF near our party. It's bad enough we have to work with them. They have 0 talented politicians. I used to think Stephen Donnelly was good, but his performances over the last few months leave a lot to be desired.

Are you seriously suggesting FG is brimming with talent?

Coveney and Donohoe at a stretch I'd listen to. The rest, not exactly Rhodes Scholars.

Sorry, but you're overrating yourselves big-time there. But then again you are 'the party of competence' so the pretence that FG is some sort of magnet for towering intellects must be maintained even in the face of reality.

stayback

antimatterx wrote: »

Nope. We don't want to FF near our party. It's bad enough we have to work with them. They have 0 talented politicians. I used to think Stephen Donnelly was good, but his performances over the last few months leave a lot to be desired.

Now as the previous poster said Coveney, Leo and paschal well able for the job.. the rest I’m afraid are bluffers and are completely out of touch with what’s happening in reality.

FF outside of M McGrath, big Jim ,stephen Donnelly jack chambers are limited enough too.

Sinn Fein outside of Mary Lou ,Pearse Doherty , & Eoin o brion have nothing of substance at all.

theballz

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Don't think FG would wipe the floor.

https://www.joe.ie/amp/politics/latest-opinion-poll-sees-fine-gael-maintain-surge-fianna-fail-take-big-hit-697278?utm_content=bufferd8d25&utm_medium=Social+organic&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer#click=https://t.co/x65Gh3dzPy

Think again

Bobtheman

It's amazing some of the scaremongering on this site.
Social unrest ?
The ECB will be central here. What their attitude will be to debt? It will be different from 2008 as we were in a minority then debt wise.
It's just too soon to tell how this is going to play out economically.
As to FG/FF they are making a huge mistake excluding SF.
The Greens are making a huge mistake by coming up with fantasy politics proposals.7% reduction in carbon emissions per year ? What fxxxx country has done that ? They will be hammered if they don't enter. Same for the SDP.
Both rely on middle class voters who are not delusional about politics unlike people before profit.
I woulnt also assume a deal to be done between FF/FG yet. Because FF looking at latest opinion polls might make FF think twice or push them towards SF. It's like the guy in the indo wrote today- they are Pepsi and coke. Similar products. If they are on the same government shelf people will only want one in the end.

Fann Linn

theballz wrote: »

https://www.joe.ie/amp/politics/latest-opinion-poll-sees-fine-gael-maintain-surge-fianna-fail-take-big-hit-697278?utm_content=bufferd8d25&utm_medium=Social+organic&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer#click=https://t.co/x65Gh3dzPy

Think again

One poll and FG are creamin themselves.

Leonard Hofstadter

Fann Linn wrote: »

One poll and FG are creamin themselves.

Two actually; the RedC one a month ago had them on 34%.

The stories in the papers over the weekend about FG being in no rush to get a Government together are right.... much better to go to the polls again and ask the people what they want now.

Hopefully this time we can have a much better FG vote, and the country can have a Government with a proper solid majority, and then we can have the proper leadership we deserve to pull us out of this crisis.

Given how much the Greens have been wrestling with their consciences just to even agree to talk with Leo and Micheál, who here honestly believes they will survive the reality of being in Government, especially when the inevitably very unpopular budget gets introduced in the Autumn? I also think it is moronic in the extreme for both parties to just be pursuing the Greens, a majority of five is wafer thin and won't last kissing time as TDs will inevitably resign, or by-elections happen, etc.

Blaze420

I think a rerun might be the best option, anything to shut the door and keep the Greens out. The ****in neck of them to be issuing demands when 94% of the electorate rejected them and don’t want the tax happy tree hugging bellends within a roar of government. Oh and put SF in there too so their followers might finally learn some maths and realise 24% of a vote is not a majority

Bobtheman

Opinion polls can be like spring showers. Who saw the size of the SF surge last time or the collapse of FF. Lots of predictions of FF getting 60 seats??
Personally I'm sick of FG/FF but I'm also sick of the vegetables and the SDP. Both have run for cover

Eric Cartman

I think a re run would see the makings of a fg/ff coalition with a heavier fg presence and no need to involve the anti rural greens. The SF vote was a one trick protest vote not to be repeated

Bobtheman

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think a re run would see the makings of a fg/ff coalition with a heavier fg presence and no need to involve the anti rural greens. The SF vote was a one trick protest vote not to be repeated

I would not agree-when the dust settles on this-people will still want a decent health service and decent hosing. The health service is doing fine because a huge amount of operations have been cancelled. Housing has fallen behind because building has been paused but good to see Evictions paused, but they cant be paused forever as that forces landlords with mortgages to subsidize people. That business model would unravel if extended. Rent freezes fair enough but you cant just let people stay rent free in places or pick their own rent
Thus the problems that led to a SF surge are still there-you know.

Floppybits

Bobtheman wrote: »

I would not agree-when the dust settles on this-people will still want a decent health service and decent hosing. The health service is doing fine because a huge amount of operations have been cancelled. Housing has fallen behind because building has been paused but good to see Evictions paused, but they cant be paused forever as that forces landlords with mortgages to subsidize people. That business model would unravel if extended. Rent freezes fair enough but you cant just let people stay rent free in places or pick their own rent
Thus the problems that led to a SF surge are still there-you know.

I agree. The housing and health issues are still there, they have just been overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. I have already seen articles in papers from GP's who are saying people are not coming to them with non Covid related problems. I seen one headline where a GP has not seen a new cancer diagnosis since the lockdown.

On the housing issues the waiting lists are still there, there are still families living in poverty and families living in a hotel room. I have often thought of those families living a hotel room and wondered how are they getting on during the lockdown? Especially when so many are struggling with entertaining kids during the lockdown imagine it must be horrible to do it in a single room.

Bobtheman

At least another election would get the ****ing covid off the telly for awhile

Edgware

Bobtheman wrote: »

At least another election would get the ****ing covid off the telly for awhile

I reckon it will be called sometime around 2023

Edgware

Edgware wrote: »

I reckon it will be called sometime around 2023

I say 2001 its just too messy as it is emerging, the independents or some rural group that have grandiose notions of turning back the tide of urbanisation combined with some mumbled ideas about rural Ireland will be the first to bailout. The greens are savvier this time and will stick it out I think.

Bobtheman

mariaalice wrote: »

I say 2001 its just too messy as it is emerging, the independents or some rural group that have grandiose notions of turning back the tide of urbanisation combined with some mumbled ideas about rural Ireland will be the first to bailout. The greens are savvier this time and will stick it out I think.

?

2021 maybe:P