How much is this all going to cost and who will pay for it ?

Danzy

Pussyhands wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0331/1207173-brendan-mcgrath-on-covid-spending/

Covid spending will reach 28bn at the end of 2021.

This is horrific news lads and it's frightening that most people don't know what's coming down the tracks.

Government are announcing millions a day in funding for groups. 17 million yesterday willy nilly for outdoor dining.

Squeezed middle are going to be shafted again paying for this.

Funding like that is so the squeezed Middle don't collapse, Can afford electricity and food.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

We, the public, have €128bn in the bank, so I wouldn't be too concerned just yet! It's good to point it out but I doubt they have plans to reach the total if they can avoid it.

What are you suggesting, that the government takes 30% of everyone's savings to pay for this?

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What are you suggesting, that the government takes 30% of everyone's savings to pay for this?

Well there was a private pension money grab the last time we had a financial crisis, I wouldn't be surprised if they targeted savings tbh but it may be more problematic that taking money from a private pension.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Well there was a private pension money grab the last time we had a financial crisis, I wouldn't be surprised if they targeted savings tbh but it may be more problematic that taking money from a private pension.

They raided people's savings in Cyprus during the last crisis, and to be fair there have been so many things that happened during COVID that I thought would be impossible in a democracy, that this would be trivial to do.

The only way out I see is either the ECB writes off a load of sovereign debt, or inflates it away. The former is vastly preferable, but I don't see "ze Germans" or the others in the frugal four agreeing to it.

Imagine if there is a pandemic in two years time with an IFR of 10% across the board. We have nothing left.

I still continue to say this lockdown is a total overreaction and many businesses that are closed could be safely open. Pubs being about the only exception.

We were always going to get a surge over Christmas.

political analyst

Obviously, the national debt has been increased by the borrowing that our government has been doing and the fact that the shutdown of many businesses means that there is less revenue for the Department of Finance.

Of course, the debt must be paid in the future. Given that the austerity brought about by the economic crisis into which Ireland was plunged just over a decade ago led to cutbacks in the health service and other public services, why would the government think that these onerous restrictions on businesses are helpful to the health service or to this country's welfare in general?

After all, the increasing of debt is never good for any country. I'm not sure that the lockdown's effect on the public finances has been sufficiently discussed.

Bit cynical

I think there will be problems in the Eurozone when the virus eventually recedes from front-page news. Although all countries have suffered economically, the amount that each economy has suffered and the amount of borrowing varies from country to country. Normally this would entail different monetary policies but, of course, this is not possible in the Eurozone. We may get a repeat of some of the stuff we saw in the financial crisis.

Captcha

we can just sell a few houses to cover it

Beasty

Threads merged

completedit

I personally believe this decade will end the Euro if decisions are taken which heighten unrest to a tipping point. Brexit gives a precedent now and Brussels knows this. The next few years will be very interesting. It's make or break imo. As someone who is in favour of closer integration I really hope that the outcome will be a good one.

The prevailing mood is that austerity doesn't work. There's too much at stake this time and the memory of the GFC too clear in the memory for a return to measures which only worked to worsen and prolong the last crisis.

My hunch is that public debt will be swept aside as a conversation for the next few years before remerging again when Covid has become a memory.

PommieBast

completedit wrote: »

I personally believe this decade will end the Euro if decisions are taken which heighten unrest to a tipping point. Brexit gives a precedent now and Brussels knows this. The next few years will be very interesting. It's make or break imo. As someone who is in favour of closer integration I really hope that the outcome will be a good one.

I'm honestly surprised Greece at the very least has not left. As much as the EU/Euro is hated in a lot of countries, a return to national currencies is even less popular. Most likely due to the belief that any reintroduced national currency will very quickly get debased.

Bit cynical

During the last financial crisis Ireland caved under intense international pressure to accept a bailout that was later spun as Ireland asking for help.

The next one will be Ireland genuinely asking for help.

political analyst

Bit cynical wrote: »

During the last financial crisis Ireland caved under intense international pressure to accept a bailout that was later spun as Ireland asking for help.

The next one will be Ireland genuinely asking for help.

At least it was still business as usual for most cafés and restaurants and most of the salons and barber shops were still open in that period!

Geuze

political analyst wrote: »

Obviously, the national debt has been increased by the borrowing that our government has been doing and the fact that the shutdown of many businesses means that there is less revenue for the Department of Finance.

Of course, the debt must be paid in the future. Given that the austerity brought about by the economic crisis into which Ireland was plunged just over a decade ago led to cutbacks in the health service and other public services, why would the government think that these onerous restrictions on businesses are helpful to the health service or to this country's welfare in general?

After all, the increasing of debt is never good for any country. I'm not sure that the lockdown's effect on the public finances has been sufficiently discussed.

The first paragraph is correct, except that tax revenues haven't fallen much, it's expenditure that has risen.

I don't get the second half of the second paragraph?

political analyst

Geuze wrote: »

The first paragraph is correct, except that tax revenues haven't fallen much, it's expenditure that has risen.

I don't get the second half of the second paragraph?

How can revenues not have fallen much? Look at the businesses that are shut down!

saabsaab

political analyst wrote: »

How can revenues not have fallen much? Look at the businesses that are shut down!

Were they not paying taxes?

PommieBast

political analyst wrote: »

How can revenues not have fallen much? Look at the businesses that are shut down!

Think the tax take from the FANGs and other MNCs is up.

Geuze

political analyst wrote: »

How can revenues not have fallen much? Look at the businesses that are shut down!

We all know the Irish income tax system is one of the most progressive in the world.

COVID proved it.

Thousands upon thousands laid off, and yet income tax receipts hardly fell.

This is because lower earners here pay hardly any tax.

Geuze

saabsaab wrote: »

Were they not paying taxes?

See section on Fiscal here, see pages 22, 28

https://www.ntma.ie/uploads/general/NTMA-Investor-Presentation-April-2021.pdf

Geuze

political analyst wrote: »

How can revenues not have fallen much? Look at the businesses that are shut down!

Indeed, it is odd.

2020 tax revenues were down, by 3.6%, see below:

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/86531-deficit-of-19-billion-expected-in-2020-taxes-down-21-billion-expenditure-up-179-billion-on-2019-donohoe-mcgrath/


Today’s Exchequer figures show that tax revenues in 2020 were down €2.1 billion, or 3.6 per cent on 2019;

• Income tax receipts were down €224 million, or 1 per cent on 2019, a smaller than expected fall due to strong PAYE and self-employed returns;

• VAT receipts finished the year €2.7 billion, or 18 per cent less than 2019, as public health restrictions impacted consumer spending;

• Similarly, excise returns were down €500 million, or 8per cent on 2019;

• The only major tax head to increase in 2020 was corporation tax, up €945 million or nearly 9 per cent;

• Total net voted expenditure in 2020 was €67.8 billion. This represents a 25 per cent, or €13.7 billion increase on 2019;

• The rise in expenditure reflects increased departmental drawdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly in the areas of health and social protection;

• An Exchequer deficit of €12.3 billion was recorded in 2020, a €13 billion deterioration on the previous year. The Exchequer deficit is estimated to contribute to an overall general government deficit of €19 billion, or around 5½ per cent of GDP.

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

We all know the Irish income tax system is one of the most progressive in the world.

COVID proved it.

Thousands upon thousands laid off, and yet income tax receipts hardly fell.

This is because lower earners here pay hardly any tax.

Hundreds of thousands laid off, yet income tax receipts fell by 1%.

Ireland is unusually in that vast amounts of earners pay zero income tax.

Even on a reasonable 48-50k income, my parents pay just 8-9% income tax.

Geuze

The provisional 2020 public accounts are published today.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gfsap/governmentfinancestatisticsprovisionalapril2021/

2020 = 18.4 billion deficit

PS revenue fell 3.5 bn, of which taxes fell 2.5bn

Expenditure up by 15 bn!!

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

The provisional 2020 public accounts are published today.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gfsap/governmentfinancestatisticsprovisionalapril2021/

2020 = 18.4 billion deficit

PS revenue fell 3.5 bn, of which taxes fell 2.5bn

Expenditure up by 15 bn!!

But the economy is fine is what I keep reading on here...

Padre_Pio

Geuze wrote: »

Hundreds of thousands laid off, yet income tax receipts fell by 1%.

Ireland is unusually in that vast amounts of earners pay zero income tax.

Even on a reasonable 48-50k income, my parents pay just 8-9% income tax.

Between pensions, salary sacrifices, and other investments, my income tax is about 14-15% on a 70k gross income.

There are a few ways to avoid direct tax, and a few reliefs depending on employer and profession. PRSI and USC is a b*tch though.

Nermal

Geuze wrote: »

The provisional 2020 public accounts are published today.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gfsap/governmentfinancestatisticsprovisionalapril2021/

2020 = 18.4 billion deficit

PS revenue fell 3.5 bn, of which taxes fell 2.5bn

Expenditure up by 15 bn!!

The statistic that really matters. Yet we won't be having daily press briefings to dissect it.

Under any reasonable estimates of IFR, herd immunity threshholds and QALYs that we have saved, it has simply not been worth it.

Pussyhands

Government are a joke.

They're literally throwing money around willy nilly to keep people quiet. The pubs and hotels, not a peep from them since they started getting their big weekly packets.

Nearly every week you hear government announcing another 20 or 30m on some initiative...like for pubs to get equipment for outside dining.


There's been a massive increase in permanent spending during covid too...hearing Paschal on the radio a few months ago he's praying the economy growth is going to cover that extra...but I don't think it will.

Sharpyshoot

A crash will come faster than a bowel movement after a session of Guinness.

Danzy

Pussyhands wrote: »

Government are a joke.

They're literally throwing money around willy nilly to keep people quiet. The pubs and hotels, not a peep from them since they started getting their big weekly packets.

Nearly every week you hear government announcing another 20 or 30m on some initiative...like for pubs to get equipment for outside dining.


There's been a massive increase in permanent spending during covid too...hearing Paschal on the radio a few months ago he's praying the economy growth is going to cover that extra...but I don't think it will.

That's only a pittance in the scheme of a business, even a small one.

If you had even the barest notion about such things you wouldn't be posting as you do.

arctictree

The Government has borrowed its way out of this crisis.

You can be damn sure the response would have been different if that tap was turned off.

On another topic, I'm no economist but 50 years ago we were a nation of entrepreneurs. Look at photos of any bustling high street back then and all the small businesses working away. No way could we have closed them all.

Today, I'd say a large percentage of our work force is Public Service and Multinationals. Level 5 lockdown doesn't really effect these groups financially.

Danzy

arctictree wrote: »

The Government has borrowed its way out of this crisis.

You can be damn sure the response would have been different if that tap was turned off.

On another topic, I'm no economist but 50 years ago we were a nation of entrepreneurs. Look at photos of any bustling high street back then and all the small businesses working away. No way could we have closed them all.

Today, I'd say a large percentage of our work force is Public Service and Multinationals. Level 5 lockdown doesn't really effect these groups financially.

About 20% roughly between the 2.

Most people still work in small to medium businesses.