What is the excess death rate in Ireland due to this virus??

Pa ElGrande

The highest mortality rate in Ireland attributed to the Covid-19 is among the elderly and so far the median age of those who what died in Ireland is 81. (May they rest in peace).

On a normal day in the first quarter we can expect between ~95 to 103 people per day to die in Ireland for various reasons, primarily we expect these are due to conditions associated with age. In the Northern hemisphere we also have a seasonal phenomenon called excess Winter deaths that is often correlated with cold weather (e.g. March 2018) which may explain why the number of deaths is higher in 2018 compared with 2019.

Diseases of the respiratory system:

Deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease numbered 566, pneumonia accounted for 323 deaths and 316 deaths resulted from all other respiratory diseases.

source

I have a question if we did not know about this virus would we be able to distinguish the signature in the overall mortality rate and how much would the the rate for repository diseases affect that increase? We won't know the answer to this until August when the CSO publishes its figures. Based on last years numbers we would expect ~6 to 7 people per day to die from diseases of the respiratory system (which also includes lung cancer) or ~4 people per day for pneumonia.


That leads to the question then about surge capacity planning in Irish hospitals during the Winter as we know from previous years news reports that the public sick care system operates at the edge even in a normal flu season. How many more people have been hospitalised due to diseases of the respiratory system than an average winter season? and is the current situation in the hospitals comparable to the effects of a colder than average winter?


The other aspect we are not hearing is the recovery rate for people who have been hospitalised? I don't expect that this virus is killing every 65+ year old that enters an Irish hospital, indeed there was an isolated case of a 101 year old in Italy who recovered.

BrianD3

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

I have a question if we did not know about this virus would we be able to distinguish the signature in the overall mortality rate and how much would the the rate for repository diseases affect that increase? We won't know the answer to this until August when the CSO publishes its figures. Based on last years numbers we would expect ~6 to 7 people per day to die from diseases of the respiratory system (which also includes lung cancer) or ~4 people per day for pneumonia.

Lung cancer wouldn't be classed as a disease of the respiratory system but as a malignant neoplasm. IIRC there are around 2000 deaths per year from lung cancer.

Kivaro

Based on conservative estimates from the States and the UK, we could see approximately 1,540 deaths in Ireland from Covid-19. This would be an optimistic approximation and if we do physical distancing correctly.

recyclebin

We have about 30000 deaths per year in Ireland. If those 1540 are on top of that then it adds about 5% to the normal figures.

Pa ElGrande

BrianD3 wrote: »

Lung cancer wouldn't be classed as a disease of the respiratory system but as a malignant neoplasm. IIRC there are around 2000 deaths per year from lung cancer.

You are correct. Could not figure out how to construct the table earlier.

Beasty

This is very early days

These sorts of points have been touched upon elsewhere in the forum, but I don't think it warrants a dedicated thread at this time