What TDs will lose their seat?

Muahahaha

What causalities might we see from this election? And what old faces might return to the Dail?

So far Im thinking Labours Jan o'Sullivan and Joan Burton are both in big battles. They might have enough to just stagger over the line but its going to be tight. Gino Kenny is going to struggle to retain his seat too. Noel Rock also in a spot of trouble against FFs Paul McAliffe.

Regards the return of previously elected TDs I think Aodhan o'Riordain in Dublin Bay North is certain to make a comeback after the Catherine Noone debacle. Also a good shout for the return of the international recording artist formerly known as Paul Gogarty TD.

blanch152

Both Joan Burton and Ruth Coppinger are in trouble in Dublin West, with their seats looking like they are going to Sinn Fein (Paul Donnelly) and the Greens (Roderick O'Gorman).

Because of the large number of retirements, there may not be as many high-profile casualties as usual.

kerosene

I think Regina Doherty could lose her seat to sf.

It's a 3 seater and both her and Helen McEntee are in the same constituency. They both got in last time around narrowly.

If fg are to lose a seat here, I think it is more likely Regina Doherty than Helen McEntee.

Muahahaha

Sinn Feins Imelda Munster in Louth was another I read might be in trouble. Though Im not sure how as there is always a big SF vote in Louth and Gerry Adams is retiring.

Plumbthedepths

Noel Rock (FG)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Paul Murphy ( who is his party this week?)
Paul Kehoe (FG)

is_that_so

Muahahaha wrote: »

Sinn Feins Imelda Munster in Louth was another I read might be in trouble. Though Im not sure how as there is always a big SF vote in Louth and Gerry Adams is retiring.

She might but it remains to be seen how much of a personal vote Adams had. On a bad day for them it could be 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab but I reckon 1 FF 1 SF(Munster) 1 FG and 2 from FG/SF/Lab for the final seats.

mikemac2

blanch152 wrote: »

Both Joan Burton and Ruth Coppinger are in trouble in Dublin West, with their seats looking like they are going to Sinn Fein (Paul Donnelly) and the Greens (Roderick O'Gorman).

+1

I see Dublin West going exactly like this

Donnelly very narrowly missed out on a seat last time, it won't happen again

kerosene

Peadar Toibin in meath west will have a big battle on his hand with sf, though I'd expect he will have enough support to get over the line.

is_that_so

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Noel Rock (FG)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Paul Murphy ( who is his party this week?)
Paul Kehoe (FG)

Rock is in most marginal seat so could be under pressure. Murphy will be at risk and Kehoe too. Doubt Farrell will lose out unless there is a newly discovered love for Reilly again!

emo72

Joan Burton and Regina Doherty would be a massive present for us all. I'm sure they don't mean it but they come across as the most odious individuals ever.

Suckit

kerosene wrote: »

I think Regina Doherty could lose her seat to sf.

It's a 3 seater and both her and Helen McEntee are in the same constituency. They both got in last time around narrowly.

If fg are to lose a seat here, I think it is more likely Regina Doherty than Helen McEntee.

I could never vote for Helen McEntee (or Regina), despite hearing she's doing a good job, I've not seen any evidence of her doing anything except attending gigs with Leo. She showed no interest in politics before the death of her father, and when Enda Kenny promised her a seat in the Seanad if she didn't get her fathers seat in the by-election, that just sickened me.

In Fingal, FG are surely running the two weakest candidates in their entire party?
Alan Farrell and James Reilly. Neither are likely to get in on the merit of their own votes, but when one of them gives their votes to the other, then it may be possible. Hard to know if Farrell will keep his seat or will Reilly take it though.

Plumbthedepths

emo72 wrote: »

Joan Burton and Regina Doherty would be a massive present for us all. I'm sure they don't mean it but they come across as the most odious individuals ever.

+1 neither would be a loss, both gone would be a bonus.

is_that_so

kerosene wrote: »

Peadar Toibin in meath west will have a big battle on his hand with sf, though I'd expect he will have enough support to get over the line.

I think this one seat SF are likely to drop because of him.
The outcome for him depends how much the vote is split. If holds 60-70% or more of it he should be OK although he will probably be helped anyway by the lack of real opposition for that third seat.

gmisk

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

Mortelaro

Soc dems Jenifer Whitmore will gain a seat in Wicklow at the expense of Andrew Doyle FG
I'll be giving her a useful transfer
I think the top 8 in the 1st count there will be
1 casey FF
2.Harris FG
3 Brady SF
4 Donnelly FF
5 Whitmore SD
6 Timmins FG
7 valerie Cox IND
8 Doyle FG

TheValeyard

gmisk wrote: »

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

One can only both of these are gone.

McMurphy

is_that_so wrote: »

She might but it remains to be seen how much of a personal vote Adams had. On a bad day for them it could be 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab but I reckon 1 FF 1 SF(Munster) 1 FG and 2 from FG/SF/Lab for the final seats.

She's second favourite @ 1 to 7 on after Declan Breathnacb from FF.

I would have thought she was s shoe in.

TheValeyard

And Mary Mitchell O Connor! She's some dose!

kerosene

McMurphy wrote: »

She's second favourite @ 1 to 7 on after Declan Breathnacb from FF.

I would have thought she was s shoe in.

I was reading that the local radio station lmfm are giving sf a chance of taking 2 seats, so you would have to imagine Imelda Munster is fairly secure.

is_that_so

McMurphy wrote: »

She's second favourite @ 1 to 7 on after Declan Breathnacb from FF.

I would have thought she was s shoe in.

As someone said on a thread, even very small amounts of money can skew odds, especially on small markets. Not the expression I'd use, that would be for Breathnach who will probably top the poll again, but yeah I expect her to get reelected. I am curious about how the vote might hold up. They lost 3/10 seats in the locals last year.

Edgware

gmisk wrote: »

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

1. Ardagh is likely to win a seat leaving Smith or Collins at risk. Collins is a good constituency rep whereas Smith has been too busy fighting the class war.

2. Zappone is only a disappointment if you actually expected her to be of any use. Another one who thinks she knows what's best for the great unwashed

ChikiChiki

kerosene wrote: »

I think Regina Doherty could lose her seat to sf.

It's a 3 seater and both her and Helen McEntee are in the same constituency. They both got in last time around narrowly.

If fg are to lose a seat here, I think it is more likely Regina Doherty than Helen McEntee.

Hopefully. An arrogant entitled clown.

Take#2, leaving the irreverence behind in AH. I live in Clare and Timmy Dooley is facing his first serious challenge in over a decade. The absentee vote scandal has leveled the playing field, with a seat no longer guaranteed. Met him on the campaign trail and an air of quiet desperation was apparent. The price of complacency, his prominence is no more.

padd b1975

gmisk wrote: »

I would be surprised if Brid Smith lost her seat she has a fairly high profile.

Katherine zappone is bound to be at risk? She has been such a disappointment

Smith only got in by about 35 votes last time, she doesn't have the water protest momentum this time.

Zappone got elected on about the fourteenth count and has been very gaffe prone.

Both are definitely in danger.

In fact, I could see only Rich Boy being the only Trot elected, and even that is far from a sure thing.

rn

I think FF Eugene Murphy could be bet by orla leyden in Roscommon East Galway.

PopePalpatine

is_that_so wrote: »

I think this one seat SF are likely to drop because of him.
The outcome for him depends how much the vote is split. If holds 60-70% or more of it he should be OK although he will probably be helped anyway by the lack of real opposition for that third seat.

Yeah, I'd say he'd hold on thanks to his constituency work. Behind Cassels, Damien English has two running mates fighting for his transfers, so that's them fecked, SF lost over half of their council seats last year and I wouldn't hold out much hope for the SD and Green candidates.

Oh, and Renua drew the short straw against the Sosialistí Naisiúnta and the Irexit idiots, so they have to prop up the field.

Tefral

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Take#2, leaving the irreverence behind in AH. I live in Clare and Timmy Dooley is facing his first serious challenge in over a decade. The absentee vote scandal has leveled the playing field, with a seat no longer guaranteed. Met him on the campaign trail and an air of quiet desperation was apparent. The price of complacency, his prominence is no more.

Agreed. I think Cathal Crowe will take his seat.

Edgware

Prince in Donegal would be no great loss

gmisk

Edgware wrote: »

1. Ardagh is likely to win a seat leaving Smith or Collins at risk. Collins is a good constituency rep whereas Smith has been too busy fighting the class war.

2. Zappone is only a disappointment if you actually expected her to be of any use. Another one who thinks she knows what's best for the great unwashed

1. You could be right, the only people knocking on my door have been labour and the greens. I have met the councillor a few times who took Brid Smith's seat and she is really lovely and works hard (hazel de nortuin) Joan Collins you are right she seems to put in a lot of effort locally.
2. I think she got in based on her admittedly really admirable work on marriage equality case, but she has been poor, didn't she have something dodgy come up to do with travel expenses?

gmisk

Edgware wrote: »

Prince in Donegal would be no great loss

Does it look like Peter Casey is gonna flop? The odds indicate it...

joebloggs32

gmisk wrote: »

1. You could be right, the only people knocking on my door have been labour and the greens. I have met the councillor a few times who took Brid Smith's seat and she is really lovely and works hard (hazel de nortuin) Joan Collins you are right she seems to put in a lot of effort locally.
2. I think she got in based on her admittedly really admirable work on marriage equality case, but she has been poor, didn't she have something dodgy come up to do with travel expenses?

Zappones sat navs brings her on a longer route to the dail than necessary which puts her travel claim into the next distance bracket.

Muahahaha

gmisk wrote: »

2. I think she got in based on her admittedly really admirable work on marriage equality case, but she has been poor, didn't she have something dodgy come up to do with travel expenses?

Yeah Zappone was barely a wet week in the door as a minister and it came out that she was claiming her journey from her house to the Dail was more than 25km despite Google Maps saying it was 23km. iirc by her deliberately taking a longer route it was worth an extra 20k a year in expenses to her. Pretty shameful behaviour, real snout in the trough stuff from her.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Muahahaha wrote: »

Sinn Feins Imelda Munster in Louth was another I read might be in trouble. Though Im not sure how as there is always a big SF vote in Louth and Gerry Adams is retiring.

Would be very surprised by this

Notmything

Funchion (SF) in Cw/Kk must be vulnerable. The SF vote looks like it has fallen badly and she has been fairly anonymous for the constituency. Her seat might end up going to a third FF or the green.

Calhoun

Edgware wrote: »

1. Ardagh is likely to win a seat leaving Smith or Collins at risk. Collins is a good constituency rep whereas Smith has been too busy fighting the class war.

2. Zappone is only a disappointment if you actually expected her to be of any use. Another one who thinks she knows what's best for the great unwashed

Hoping Zapppne goes and we get out these special education tzars with fairly questionable backgrounds out.

prunudo

Mortelaro wrote: »

Soc dems Jenifer Whitmore will gain a seat in Wicklow at the expense of Andrew Doyle FG
I'll be giving her a useful transfer
I think the top 8 in the 1st count there will be
1 casey FF
2.Harris FG
3 Brady SF
4 Donnelly FF
5 Whitmore SD
6 Timmins FG
7 valerie Cox IND
8 Doyle FG

Reckon the top 3 are a shoe in, I'd be worried for Donnelly though, a lot of people who voted for him on the basis he was a SocDem last time felt very betrayed when he moved over to FF. Reckon Whitmore has a good shout at getting a seat so think the 5th seat will be between Donnelly and Doyle.
Ivan Yates reckons Valerie Cox has a good chance too given her profile on East coast radio and the demographic she's aiming for.

Muahahaha

Maleah Fierce Putter wrote: »

Would be very surprised by this

Yeah same here. I forget what hack wrote that Imelda Munster is in trouble but it sounded strange to me too. Most likely I read it in the Indo whose default position is to make Sinn Fein candidates look weak even when they're not.

Hodors Appletart

yeah Rock will go DNW is a 3-Seater and has lost the leafier parts of Drumcondra and Glasnevin which would have been his base I've never seen him in finglas ever mcauliffe is all over finglas all the time

ellis and shortall will also be returned

zell12

Govt chief whip Sean Kyne may lose seat in Galway West.
Currently two FGs there, but only one will be elected

Dyr

Hodors Appletart wrote: »

yeah Rock will go DNW is a 3-Seater and has lost the leafier parts of Drumcondra and Glasnevin which would have been his base I've never seen him in finglas ever mcauliffe is all over finglas all the time

ellis and shortall will also be returned

I think the last seat could be a Battle between Rock and Ellis rather than McAuliffe, Ellis really needed Carney Bouds transfers to get him over the line last time and SF are notrunning her this time. Ellis is not as transfer friendly as Rock, if his first preference is down he could be in squeaky bum territory.

Hodors Appletart

i think the new make-up of the constituency means ellis is probably more likely to be elected it's definitely more working class than it was and i don't see where rock gets transfers from

i think you are right in that mcauliffe will be comfortable elected after roisin but i don't see the third seat as a battle really

squawker

please be Alan Kelly

I will offer my first born

WoollyRedHat

All of them with any luck.

Dyr

Hodors Appletart wrote: »

i think the new make-up of the constituency means ellis is probably more likely to be elected it's definitely more working class than it was and i don't see where rock gets transfers from

i think you are right in that mcauliffe will be comfortable elected after roisin but i don't see the third seat as a battle really

Historically Ellis never got much from Shorthalls surplus or from anyone else so if his first preference is down he could be in trouble, and McAuliffe has muscled in on Dessies stamping ground in Finglas so thats a real possibility.

What could save him is Rock may also find his first preference down.

Dyr

squawker wrote: »

please be Alan Kelly

I will offer my first born

Hopefully its goes to about 5 recounts and he loses. An unmitigated bollix.

Dravokivich

I think Gino Kenny has the right demographic here, to get in again.

The questions might be better pointed towards Fianna Fails longevity and whoever is leading the campaign of defacing fine Gael posters in clondalkin.

There might be something turning towards a stronger PBP/SF presence here and would expect them to do well.

RandomViewer

Edgware wrote: »

Prince in Donegal would be no great loss

Pringle you mean? Should have stood aside and let Michael colm have a go.

RandomViewer

gmisk wrote: »

Does it look like Peter Casey is gonna flop? The odds indicate it...

Him and the white supremist dog boy will be fighting for bottom of the poll

ChikiChiki

prunudo wrote: »

Reckon the top 3 are a shoe in, I'd be worried for Donnelly though, a lot of people who voted for him on the basis he was a SocDem last time felt very betrayed when he moved over to FF. Reckon Whitmore has a good shout at getting a seat so think the 5th seat will be between Donnelly and Doyle.
Ivan Yates reckons Valerie Cox has a good chance too given her profile on East coast radio and the demographic she's aiming for.

Why is Harris such a cert? From my recollection throughout his career to date he has been very poor.

Grueller

Michael Darcy may catch the Veronavirus in Wexford.

RandomViewer

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Why is Harris such a cert? From my recollection throughout his career to date he has been very poor.

Constituency is full of entitled chinless wonders like himself,
They vote for their own kind