General Election Predictions.

Snow Garden

Let's have your seat predictions for GE2020. Below is the result from 2016.

Fine Gael = 50
Fianna Fail = 44
Sinn Fein = 23
Independents = 19
Labour = 7
AAA-PBP = 6
Independents 4 Change = 4
Social Democrats = 3
Green = 2

Total = 158

sligolad1

Looking at each constituency, this is what I came up with. Very hard to predict in some places where transfers will be key and considering how far out we are things could all change, but for now:

FF- 52
FG- 48
SF- 16
Greens- 16
LAB- 7
SPBP- 4
SD- 3
IND & Others- 14

TOTAL = 160

FF - 55
FG - 45
SF - 20
Independents - 15
Greens - 10
Labour - 5
SD - 3
Alphabet Soup - 7

Total = 160

FF, Independents & Greens entering into coalition. And Mehole installed as Taoiseach.

JohnnyFlash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

FF - 55
FG - 45
SF - 20
Independents - 15
Greens - 10
Labour - 5
SD - 3
Alphabet Soup - 7

Total = 160

FF, Independents & Greens entering into coalition. And Mehole installed as Taoiseach.

What about FF and SF and a couple of the independents? Think it would run?

piplip87

Hey guys.

So now we are less than a week out. I thought it would be a good idea to have a predictions thread and see on Monday evening who was right.

I'm going for the below format if ye are Interested give it a.go.......

No chat just keep it for predictions.

So I'll start it off

FF 65
FG 45
SF 16
Lab 5
Green 10
PBP 4
Aontu 2
SOC Dems 3
Ind 10

Shock of Elections: Paul Murphy to Lose his seat his vote split. I can see FF doing better than polls suggest and SF worse. Following trends from last election.

My Constituency

Heather Humphreys to top the poll (Minister plus that massive Protestant Vote)

Brendan Smith and Niamh Smith will both be elected for FF.

Carthy will be elected for SF.

Sarah O Reilly, Pauline Tully, and TP O'Rielly will fight for the last Seat.

Can see O'Rielly getting it as she had a massive vote in local elections. She should get massive transfers from Niamh Smyth as both are from the same area.

Carthy could get a massive vote but Monaghan people could transfer to another Monaghan Candidate rather than Tully.

TP Could pick up a big vote around Virginia, Mullagh and Ballyjamesduff may not be enough though.

Stewball

At my last count I had:

FF 54
FG 42
SF 21
Lab 7
Green 8
PBP 3
SOC Dems 3
Aontu 1
Ind 20

Stewball

piplip87 wrote: »

Aontu 2

Out of curiosity - where are you predicting Aontu will get a second seat?

Idbatterim

my prediction.

Fg win the more seats than FF marginally. FF win a few extra seats over previous election. As do the greens. Probably looking at a FFG coalition and hopefully not some supply and confidence bull**** again. We need stable government here, I would say strong and stable government, but you can forget the "strong " bit :rolleyes:

piplip87

Stewball wrote: »

Out of curiosity - where are you predicting Aontu will get a second seat?

I think Cavan/Monaghan. Sarah O'Rielly pulled a big vote in the locals.

I think she will be involved in for the last Seat. Alot of pro life votes in this neck of the woods

L1011

There isn't a hope in hell of Sol/PBP/RISE getting 4. If there's serious failures to take advantage of how weak they've got they MIGHT get three (RBB, Coppinger, Smith) but I suspect it'll be 1 (RBB) or 0.

Beasty

Threads merged - please do a search particularly before starting any new election threads. We already have a great number covering an extensive range of election topics, and indeed some going over very similar ground

Stewball

L1011 wrote: »

There isn't a hope in hell of Sol/PBP/RISE getting 4. If there's serious failures to take advantage of how weak they've got they MIGHT get three (RBB, Coppinger, Smith) but I suspect it'll be 1 (RBB) or 0.

Brid Smith could be in trouble. She's in the same constituency (DSC) as Joan Collins.
It's a 4 seater and I reckon 3 seats will be taken by SF, FF & Greens with Smith & Collins battling it out with FG for the final seat.

L1011

Stewball wrote: »

Brid Smith could be in trouble. She's in the same constituency (DSC) as Joan Collins.
It's a 4 seater and I reckon 3 seats will be taken by SF, FF & Greens with Smith & Collins battling it out with FG for the final seat.

I'm almost certain she's in severe trouble; I was giving an absolute best case scenario. Kenny is toast, Barry is toast, I think Murphy is toast.

In DSC it could end up with neither Smith nor Collins (nor Byrne) in; Moynihan has a chance but is much more active one end of the constituency than the other. O Snodaigh is basically the only cert there with Ardagh almost sure.

downwesht

How many seats will each party get in the next Dail?


My Guess


FF 52
FG 33
SF 31
L 9
GR 11
A-p 5
Ind 13

Others 4


158 seats

Beasty

and another thread merged into the original

Snow Garden

Fianna Fail = 56
Fine Gael = 39
Sinn Fein = 23
Independents = 19
Labour = 8
Green = 7
SPBP = 5
Social Democrats = 3


Total = 160

Stewball

Stewball wrote: »

At my last count I had:

FF 54
FG 42
SF 21
Lab 7
Green 8
PBP 3
SOC Dems 3
Aontu 1
Ind 20

Had another go last night and this is what I came up with.

FF 54
FG 40
SF 27
Lab 6
Green 10
PBP 1
SOC Dems 4
Aontu 1
Ind 16

Hamsterchops

FF 65
FG 45
SF 16
Lab 5
Green 10
PBP 4
Aontu 2
SOC Dems 3
Ind 10

SafeSurfer

FF 52
FG 37
SF 30
Greens 10
Labour 6
PBP 4
Soc Dems 3
Aontu 1
Ind 17

Total 160

Pherekydes

Fine Gael 37
Fianna Fáil 44
Sinn Féin 32
Labour Party 3
Solidarity–PBP 6
Independents 4 Change 1
Social Democrats 6
Green Party 7
Aontú 1
Independent 22
Ceann Comhairle 1

skimpydoo

You are all being too kind on FG.

GusGus

Hamsterchops wrote: »

FF 65
FG 45
SF 16
Lab 5
Green 10
PBP 4
Aontu 2
SOC Dems 3
Ind 10

Where have you been living ? SF 16 ?

Loafing Oaf

GusGus wrote: »

Where have you been living ? SF 16 ?

I'd love to know who the second Aontu TD will be as well:P

xredmanlfcx

Fine Gael = 36
Fianna Fail = 40
Sinn Fein = 31
Independents = 19
Labour = 5
AAA-PBP = 6
Independents 4 Change = 4
Social Democrats = 6
Green = 11

Total = 158


Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Green are my predictions. The rest are just random guesses.

Sleeper12

Snow Garden wrote:

Fine Gael = 50 Fianna Fail = 44 Sinn Fein = 23 Independents = 19 Labour = 7 AAA-PBP = 6 Independents 4 Change = 4 Social Democrats = 3 Green = 2

Isn't it amazing what a few weeks can do in politics, especially with a party that seems to deliberately shoot themselves in the foot every chance they get..

New thread needed for who will be the next leader of FG

Billcarson

Just my prediction for the 3 main parties.

FF 53
SF 34
FG 31

dundalkfc10

skimpydoo wrote: »

You are all being too kind on FG.

Very Kind

is_that_so

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Very Kind

Wishful thinking is not a prediction of an outcome. You can identity 10 seats straight off they'll have trouble keening. After that it's down to local shares and where candidates are positioned for later seats. This is not FF 2011 nor Labour 2016 territory.

Loafing Oaf

is_that_so wrote: »

Wishful thinking is not a prediction of an outcome. You can identity 10 seats straight off they'll have trouble keening.

I'd say there'll be plenty of keening from FG after the ballot boxes are opened:p